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cover of episode Why A Third-Party Candidate Poses A Threat To Biden

Why A Third-Party Candidate Poses A Threat To Biden

2023/7/17
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FiveThirtyEight Politics
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A
Amelia Thompson-DeVoe
G
Galen Druk
J
Jeffrey Skelly
N
Nathaniel Brakich
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Jeffrey Skelly：早期民调显示，第三方候选人，特别是"无党派人士"组织和科内尔·韦斯特，可能会在拜登和特朗普的潜在对决中，从拜登手中夺走选票，导致特朗普获胜。这一影响可能达到1到3个百分点。虽然这些民调结果存在不确定性，尤其是在距离大选还有16个月的时候，但它们表明，在竞争激烈的选举中，第三方候选人可能对最终结果产生影响。历史数据显示，第三方候选人的支持率通常会在接近大选时下降，但这并不意味着他们不会对选举结果产生影响。 Amelia Thompson-DeVoe：距离大选较远时，选民尚未完全形成党派立场，因此第三方候选人更容易获得支持。但随着大选临近，选民往往会回归到主要政党。"无党派人士"组织的候选人更可能吸引那些对拜登不满但也不喜欢特朗普的选民。一些对拜登不满的民主党选民可能会选择投票给"无党派人士"组织的候选人。 Nathaniel Brakich："无党派人士"组织并非总是"搅局者"，但他们的候选人有可能成为"搅局者"。当前的政治格局更像是"特朗普"与"反特朗普"之间的对决，"无党派人士"组织站在"反特朗普"一边，因此他们的候选人更可能从拜登那里夺走选票。 Galen Druk：应该认真对待这些数据，但不能完全照搬。任何在2023年夏季发表的文章都应该谨慎对待，因为我们讨论的是假设性情况。

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The podcast discusses the fundraising numbers for 2024 presidential candidates, focusing on who has raised significant amounts and who might face financial challenges.

Shownotes Transcript

Campaign finance figures from the second quarter of 2023 were released over the weekend. They offered a first glimpse at many of the presidential campaigns’ finances, since most candidates announced their bids during the second quarter. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew breaks down which of the 2024 candidates has been able to haul in the big bucks and who looks like they might have cash problems.

Also, on Monday, the centrist group No Labels is hosting a town hall in New Hampshire featuring Sen. Joe Manchin and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman. The group has said that they plan to run a moderate ticket in 2024 featuring one Republican and one Democrat (although not necessarily the two featured in Monday’s town hall). Early polling suggests that such a ticket would pull more support from President Biden than former President Donald Trump in a potential rematch. But is that a good or bad use of polling, 16 months out?

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