How to Stop Worrying and Love the Robot Apocalypse (Update)

2024/11/18

Freakonomics Radio

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David Autor

James Rosenman

Karen Eggleston

Yong Suk Lee

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David Autor: Autor教授探讨了技术进步对劳动力市场的影响，特别关注技术如何影响不同技能水平的工人以及贫富差距。他指出，技术既能创造新的就业机会，也能淘汰旧的工作，而这种转变对不同技能水平的工人的影响是不同的。他认为，美国在应对技术变革方面表现不佳，低薪工人的工资相对较低，这与加拿大形成对比。他强调了政府在投资教育、培训、提高最低工资和劳工组织保护方面的作用，以及改革税收激励措施以平衡资本投资和劳动力投资的重要性。他还谈到了技术进步对工作性质的影响，以及如何利用技术增强人类能力，而不是简单地取代人类。他认为，虽然技术进步可能导致一些工作岗位消失，但与此同时也会创造新的就业机会和更高的生产力。他强调了在政策制定中需要考虑公平与社会包容性。 James Rosenman: Rosenman先生分享了Andrus on Hudson养老社区使用机器人的经验。他描述了他们如何使用机器人进行远程医疗和社交互动，以应对护理人员短缺和新冠疫情带来的挑战。他指出，机器人降低了医疗成本，提高了生产力，并改善了患者的治疗效果。他还谈到了美国在机器人技术应用方面的落后，并认为这与监管问题有关。 Karen Eggleston: Eggleston教授的研究集中在亚洲，特别是日本，她分析了协作机器人对日本养老院劳动力市场的影响。她的研究发现，引入协作机器人并没有导致护理人员数量减少，反而增加了非正式员工的数量，并减少了员工流动率，同时改善了患者的治疗效果。她认为，机器人可以增强护理人员的能力，使他们能够专注于人际互动和情感关怀，而不是那些容易导致身体损伤的体力劳动。她强调了对人力资本的投资和适应性学习的重要性。 Yong Suk Lee: Lee教授的研究也集中在机器人技术对劳动力市场的影响，特别是建筑业和制造业。他指出，机器人最初是用来取代工人的，但随着技术的成熟，它们变得更具协作性，可以增强低技能工人的能力，而不是简单地取代高技能工人。他认为，技术进步与人力资本投资相结合，可以创造更美好的未来。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why are robots and smart technologies expected to have a significant impact on the workforce?

Robots and smart technologies are expected to automate many jobs, but also create new collaborative roles that could revitalize work processes.

How does the MIT Work of the Future Task Force view the future of low-wage jobs in the U.S.?

The Task Force believes the U.S. will continue to generate many low-wage jobs, which could be beneficial if they compete for workers, preventing a decline in job quality.

What role did the COVID-19 pandemic play in the adoption of robots in nursing homes?

The pandemic accelerated the adoption of telemedicine robots to minimize face-to-face contact and reduce COVID transmission risks in nursing homes.

Why is the Andrus on Hudson Nursing Home considered an outlier in its use of robots?

Andrus on Hudson is an outlier because it uses robots for telemedicine and social interaction, which are not commonly utilized in other nursing facilities.

How does Japan's demographic situation influence its adoption of robots in nursing homes?

Japan's aging population and declining working-age population have led to increased demand for long-term care and a shortage of workers, driving the adoption of robots to assist with caregiving tasks.

What did the study on Japanese nursing homes reveal about the impact of cobots on employment?

The study found that cobot adoption was associated with more care workers, particularly non-regular, flexible workers, and reduced the burden on regular nurses, potentially improving job satisfaction.

Why does the U.S. lag behind other countries in adopting healthcare robots?

The U.S. lags due to fragmented regulatory authorities, payment issues, and a lack of pilot studies involving robotics in healthcare settings.

What are the potential benefits of integrating robots into healthcare?

Robots can enhance quality of care, reduce employee turnover by alleviating back-pain inducing tasks, and allow care workers to focus more on compassionate care.

Chapters

The episode explores the impact of robots and cobots on the workforce, focusing on whether they will replace jobs or enhance human capabilities. Economists like David Autor discuss the potential for technology to either widen or narrow the inequality gap.

David Autor's unconventional path to becoming an MIT economist.
The debate on whether technology democratizes or exacerbates inequality.
The difficulty of predicting the future of work due to technological disruptions.
The role of skill level in determining who benefits from technological shifts.

Shownotes Transcript

It’s true that robots (and other smart technologies) will kill many jobs. It may also be true that newer collaborative robots (“cobots”) will totally reinvigorate how work gets done. That, at least, is what the economists are telling us. Should we believe them?

SOURCES:
David Autor), professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
James Rosenman), C.E.O. of Andrus on Hudson senior care community.
Karen Eggleston), economist at Stanford University.
Yong Suk Lee), professor of technology, economy, and global affairs at the University of Notre Dame.
RESOURCES:
"Robots and Labor in Nursing Homes)," by Yong Suk Lee, Toshiaki Iizuka, and Karen Eggleston (*NBER Working Paper, *2024).
"Global Robotics Race: Korea, Singapore and Germany in the Lead)," by International Federation of Robotics (2024).
"Unmet Need for Equipment to Help With Bathing and Toileting Among Older US Adults)," by Kenneth Lam, Ying Shi, John Boscardin, and Kenneth E. Covinsky (*JAMA Internal Medicine, *2021).
"Robots and Labor in the Service Sector: Evidence from Nursing Homes,)" by Karen Eggleston, Yong Suk Lee, and Toshiaki Iizuka *(NBER Working Papers, *2021).
The Work of the Future: Building Better Jobs in an Age of Intelligent Machines), by David Autor, David Mindell, Elisabeth Reynolds, and the MIT Task Force on the Work of the Future (2020).
"Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets)," by Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo (University of Chicago Press, 2020).
"The Slowdown in Productivity Growth and Policies That Can Restore It)," by Emily Moss, Ryan Nunn, and Jay Shambaugh (The Hamilton Project, 2020).
"The China Shock: Learning from Labor Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade,)" by David H. Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon H. Hanson (*NBER Working Papers, *2016).
"Deregulation at Heart of Japan's New Robotics Revolution)," by Sophie Knight and Kaori Kaneko (*Reuters, *2014).
EXTRAS:
"What Do People Do All Day?)" by *Freakonomics Radio *(2024).
"Did China Eat America’s Jobs?)" by Freakonomics Radio (2017).

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