Deep Dive
Shownotes Transcript
This is the Global News Podcast from the BBC World Service. I'm Rachel Wright and in the early hours of Monday the 12th of May, these are our main stories. President Zelensky has said he'll go to Turkey to meet Vladimir Putin on Thursday after coming under pressure from Donald Trump not to insist on a ceasefire first.
Hamas says it will release an Israeli-American hostage following direct talks with the US aimed at reaching a ceasefire deal in Gaza. China and the United States have both spoken of progress during talks on ending their trade war. Also in this podcast, in Rome... A singing pope was a novelty, and in Latin...
The new Pope addresses large crowds in St Peter's Square at his first Sunday Mass.
We start with the war in Ukraine and the latest moves to bring the two warring sides together. After pressure from Donald Trump, Ukraine's leader Volodymyr Zelensky has said he will meet the Russian president Vladimir Putin in Turkey next Thursday. Direct talks between the two sides were proposed by the Kremlin. Kiev initially responded to that offer by saying it would engage in the process, but only after Russia had agreed to an immediate 30-day ceasefire beginning on Monday.
In his nightly address, President Zelensky said his proposal of a ceasefire starting on Monday remained on the table and that Kiev was still waiting for a response from Moscow. He said he would go to the talks. I will be in Turkey this Thursday, May 15th, and I am expecting Putin in Turkey, personally. I hope this time Putin will not look for reasons why he can't do something.
We are ready to talk to end the war. Thursday, Turkey. President Trump supported it. All leaders supported it. Vitaly Shevchenko is the Russia editor at BBC Monitoring. Well, there are several ways of interpreting all these statements that we've heard over the past couple of hours.
One way of doing that is that Zelensky basically folded, caved in under all the pressure after he and European allies said that ceasefire should come before talks. Then Donald Trump completely undermined that position by saying that Ukraine should agree to talks with Russia immediately. So it's easy to see Zelensky's statement as him saying, OK, you want me to talk to Russia, I'll go and talk to Russia. But...
If we look at his statement on social media, he says that...
First, we expect a full and lasting ceasefire on Monday. And then he's expecting to meet Vladimir Putin in Turkey in person. And Vladimir Putin, he never said that direct talks with Ukraine would actually involve himself and Vladimir Zelensky. So what happens if there's no ceasefire? What happens if Vladimir Putin says, I'm not going? Will Vladimir Zelensky go?
It seems as though both leaders are sort of passing the ball to each other, the buck, the blame, and saying the failure to reach a lasting ceasefire is not my fault. It's my adversary's fault. And of course, this tramples all over the European leaders who met in Kiev a couple of days ago and what they wanted. Since Thursday, it seemed that...
There was a more united position developed jointly by Ukraine, European leaders and America who had apparently agreed to put more pressure on Russia until a couple of hours ago when Donald Trump said,
I want Ukraine to talk to Russia immediately. So what, if these talks do go ahead, and I don't think they will, frankly, what is there to talk about, given that Russia's position has not changed one bit? Vladimir Putin is still saying that there will be no ceasefire until deliveries of new weapons to Ukraine stop.
until the recruitment of new fighters into the Ukrainian army stops as well. And his press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, also said today that Russia still objects to the deployment of Western forces to Ukraine, peacekeeping forces or some other kind of forces. So what's there to talk about in Turkey, you've got to wonder?
Vitaly Shevchenko. Well, Russian and Ukrainian negotiating teams have met before face-to-face during this conflict. That happened the month after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in Istanbul. And according to a journalist who covered those talks, circumstances were very different. Yaroslav Trofimov is Ukrainian-born. He's chief foreign affairs correspondent at the Wall Street Journal. So just how close to a deal were both sides back then?
Those were the talks that began at a time when Ukraine's survival was very much in question, when Russian troops and Russian tanks were on the Kiev ring road. And they really started off as talks of capitulation, talks of Ukraine's surrender. And the real reason why these talks led nowhere, really, is because Ukraine managed to defeat the Russian military in Kiev region and in the north of Ukraine and in other parts of the country.
And the situation on the battlefield changed dramatically and it kept changing. And obviously, you know, we're not talking about
an imminent collapse of the Ukrainian state, which was the case when the stocks began in the first days of the war in 2022. Were there signs, though, at the time that the Russians were fair dealing in these negotiations, that they were being straight? The premise of those talks was that Ukraine had lost the war and the Russians were dictating the terms. So the key issues there were, for example, a limit on how large the Ukrainian military was going to be.
And, you know, it was to be a fraction of its current size, the kind of weapons the Ukrainians would have. And obviously, one feature of the agreement was a ban on foreign military assistance to Ukraine. So all of these are non-starters in today's environment. While these negotiations were happening, it emerged that the Russians had committed infamous atrocities in the town of Bucha. And that blew things apart, didn't it?
Well, very much so. So the Ukrainian army entered the town of Bucha, a suburb of Kiev, a day after that meeting in Istanbul in March 2022. And the shocking scenes of Ukrainian civilians executed, left to die in the streets of Bucha really changed the mood in Ukraine, changed the public opinion and transformed how President Zelensky was seeing the situation.
And that is when he really hardened his stance, saying, you know, we now have evidence that Russia is committing war crimes at large scale in Ukraine. And so one of the preconditions for future peace is accountability for these crimes, which remains to be the Ukrainian position. If face-to-face talks were to happen again in Istanbul this week, how different would things be?
Ukraine has a powerful military that has sophisticated weapons that have been provided by Western allies for the past three years. It's able to strike deep inside Russia, which it's been doing regularly in recent weeks and months. And so the balance of power has changed very much to Ukraine's favor.
At the same time, Russia has incurred monumental losses, hundreds of thousands, possibly more of its soldiers died in this war. And so it's no longer a conversation about how Ukraine would surrender on Russian terms. How deep is the bitterness, the hatred even on both sides, given the course that this war has run so far?
Well, I mean, the bitterness is there and the hatred is there and it's been there all along, obviously. But that doesn't change the fundamentals of the last two years of the conflict is that neither side has been able to move the front line very much. You know, Russia has been on the offensive for
since the autumn of 2023. And it really has not been able to increase its territory under control. It used to control just under 18% of Ukraine, and now it controls just over 18% of Ukraine. Yaroslav Trofimov of The Wall Street Journal talking to Paul Henley.
As we record this podcast, the ceasefire between India and Pakistan appears to be holding more than 24 hours after some initial violations, which both sides blamed each other. The truce, which was announced on Saturday, followed four days of fighting between the nuclear-armed neighbours, the worst in nearly three decades.
The agreement was reached after diplomacy and pressure from the United States. Pakistan has thanked Washington for facilitating the ceasefire and welcomed President Trump's offer to mediate on the Kashmir dispute.
But what has been the reaction in India? Our South Asia regional editor Ambarasan Etharajan spoke to us from Delhi. Whether India's objectives, have they been achieved? Indian officials would say yes. What we did was sending out a clear message to anyone inside Pakistan who wanted to carry out any attack on civilian targets inside. And Pakistan...
They had shot down five Indian military jets, but India has not confirmed it. The closest where they came to conclusion, they came to an admission about it, a short while ago, the Indian military officials held a press conference, and one of them said, when people specifically asked about the question, they said losses were part of any combat. Beyond that, they wouldn't confirm. All they said was the pilots, all the pilots were safe.
back in their bases. Now, in a broader perspective, people would say India did not expect such a ferocious response from Pakistan, and even though Indian media channels claiming it as a victory, but there is a wider level admission that the Indian Air Force could not match what Pakistan was doing because the Pakistani jets were having more sophisticated missiles. So many of the defense experts are pointing out India's
India did not complete its ambition, but at least they were able to send a message to Pakistan that despite the nuclear deterrence, we will come in if necessary. You are in India. Is there much criticism from Pakistan
people in India of the truce or is everybody supportive of what happened? Most of this Indian media, they are talking about how India was able to target several bases and radar stations inside Pakistan. However, the opposition is criticising the government why President Trump was allowed to declare the ceasefire. In fact, only 30 minutes later, the Indians confirmed the ceasefire.
So all along, Indians were always against any third party intervention in any of the bilateral talks with Pakistan. So now President Trump announced this, and later on the Indians were saying that we had a direct chat with the Pakistanis, so they were not mentioning about the U.S. mediation. So that has come under criticism by opposition parties and several other activists saying, how come the United States is announcing a ceasefire between India and Pakistan because Pakistan
The traditional position has been that India doesn't want any third-party mediation. That has been the criticism. And some retired generals have been questioning what was achieved, what was the political, strategic achievements of this entire operation, whether India was able to achieve exactly what it wanted in these four days of fighting. I'm Barisan Ethirojan in Delhi.
Pope Leo has used his first Sunday message to call for an end to wars around the world. He addressed a large crowd at St Peter's Square in the Vatican. From there, our correspondent Sarah Rainsford reports.
For a brand new Pope, another first. Leo XIV stepped out onto the balcony of St Peter's to deliver his Sunday blessing to great applause. He greeted the crowd as his dear brothers and sisters.
A singing pope was a novelty, and in Latin, perhaps a nod to the traditionalists. But his main message in Italian was to the most powerful, he said. No more war.
Three years ago, as Bishop Bob Prevost, he denounced Russia's invasion of Ukraine as an imperialist war and condemned crimes against humanity there. Today, as Pope, he said Ukraine's suffering was close to his heart and called for a true, just and lasting peace. He wished peace for Gaza too, and between India and Pakistan.
The first North American pope has still made no mention of the USA or of its politics, but he is going down well here with many Catholics. So many people. Can't believe how many people there are. It's mad. Everyone's really happy. Fingers crossed. Leo XIV has a very different profile to his predecessor, but these were early days and so far his style and his focus feel familiar.
Sarah Rainsford in Rome. Now, we won't know the results for some time, but as we record this podcast, exit polls suggest that Albania's Prime Minister, Edi Rama, may have won an unprecedented fourth term. More significantly, the parliamentary elections are seen as crucial if the country is to continue its efforts to join the European Union.
Turnout was 49% in Albania, but almost 80% among Albanians living abroad who were allowed to vote for the first time. I asked Arbalkan's correspondent Guy Delorny just how confident Mr Rama's supporters should be.
It's looking fairly comfortable for Eddie Ramah and his governing Socialist Party at the moment. The poll in the Albanian Post indicates 52% of the votes have gone to the Socialist Party, as against 38% to the coalition led by the Democratic Party of Sali Berisha. That's a very handy lead.
for Mr Rama and the socialists. It would give them 79 seats in Parliament as opposed to 54 for the Democratic Party, and that would enable Mr Rama to carry on governing as he has done since 2013. But this has been described as a pivotal ballot for Albania. Why is that?
Well, it's something which Mr. Rammer was obviously keen to project, this idea that this was crucial, because he has been in power for 12 years, and his whole pitch to the electorate has been that he's the man who's going to get his country into the European Union. And he can obviously point to the fact that
accession negotiations opened on his watch, that they have opened negotiations on more than half of the chapters in this very long book of requirements that the European Union publishes for candidate countries, and that he reckons they're on target to complete those talks by 2027 with a target date of actual membership of 2030. And, you know, there have been some encouraging noises coming out of the European Union. They've generally been positive in their progress reports
on Albania while saying a lot needs to be done, indicating that progress has been made. So that was Mr Rama's pitch all along. I've got you this far. Let me take you the rest of the way. And is that why you think people voted for him and not for his rivals? Sarri Beres is a problematic figure. I mean, he's 80 years old. He's been around an awful long time in Albanian politics. Well, you're not going to get a change.
with an 80-year-old veteran of politics, you're going to get something that you had in the past. It was quite funny. His slogan was, make Albania great again. And he was employing some people from the Trump presidential campaign in the US to try and get that message across. But, you know, if you look at what Albania was 20 years ago, it's not where it is now. So it was a bit of an odd pitch to make. Guy Delaney in Tirana.
Still to come... Picked, unpicked and then picked again. Perhaps not the best way to start an election campaign, but an episode that seems in keeping with the state of South Korean politics. Chaos in South Korea over one of the candidates in next month's presidential election.
An announcement from Hamas that it will release an Israeli-American hostage next week has been welcomed by Washington. The news came after direct talks between Hamas and U.S. officials. There was a distinctly less effusive response from the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He merely insisted that any Israeli negotiations with Hamas would have to happen while fighting in Gaza continued until all Israeli war objectives had been met.
Our Middle East correspondent, Hugo Beshega, has been following events in Jerusalem. This announcement by Hamas that it will release this hostage, Idan Alexander, who is an Israeli-American citizen, came after the group confirmed that direct talks...
were happening between Hamas and the US administration in Doha, in Qatar, which has been acting as a mediator in this conflict. And Hamas is describing it as a step in efforts to reach a ceasefire deal in Gaza and also to allow humanitarian aid into the territory which has been under this Israeli siege for 70 days. No humanitarian supplies have entered Gaza for 70 days.
And obviously this happens just before President Trump arrives in the Middle East. He will start this visit on Tuesday. So I think it's obvious that he wants to be able to have something to celebrate. So we've seen that there has been an intensification of these efforts for some kind of deal in Gaza. But I think it's also very important that
to mention that over the last few days we've seen multiple reports suggesting that the Trump administration is increasingly frustrated with the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his demands, his positions in these negotiations. So it seems that, you know, perhaps the president is losing patience with the Prime Minister and may force Israel to strike a deal with Hamas.
We don't know what has been offered or promised by the United States in return. The Israelis are saying that they are not involved in these talks and these negotiations. But again, I think this could indicate that we're likely to see more pressure from the Trump administration.
on the Israeli government to reach a deal. For a very long time, critics of the prime minister have been saying that he's not interested in reaching a deal, that he's prolonging the war for political purposes. This has been a constant accusation, especially from the families of the hostages who remain in captivity in Gaza. But I think over the last few weeks, you know, there has been a growing opposition to the war. We've seen a number of former military officials in public
criticizing the government for not having a plan for Gaza, for not announcing a plan to end a war in Gaza. So I think perhaps this criticism of the prime minister is now being shared by some in President Trump's circle.
Difficult but useful, said Iran. Encouraging, said the US. That's how Tehran and Washington described their fourth round of nuclear talks in Oman, which have now ended. Beyond a pledge to meet again, there appears to have been little agreement. Both sides remain wide apart in their positions, especially on whether Iran should dismantle its uranium enrichment activities. But despite that, there was an upbeat tempo to the mood music after the talk.
I spoke to our correspondent Navisa Kuvinovad in the Omani capital, Muscat, and began by asking her whether we were finally seeing progress. There are a lot of things that kind of cast a shadow on this round, but right after, when they announced that the fourth round of the negotiation has finished, interestingly, all
three sides, I mean the hosts Oman and also the US and Iran immediately released the statements and talked to media giving signal that the Fortran was very positive and there have been progress.
So it sounds very positive. Does this mean that there is likely to be another round between the Americans and the Iranians via the Omanis? Yes. Interestingly, the Oman foreign minister immediately posted on X saying that the fifth round will happen right after that the
the negotiators, the US and Iran negotiators will report to their leadership. So he kind of mentioned clearly that there will be a fifth round. And also, Iran Foreign Minister Mr. Arochi told Iran's official TV that the fifth round is expected to happen in about one week. So he said that the
the fifth one on its way. So what are the stakes if this doesn't work? What if there is no breakthrough? What could happen? Well, the
The U.S. President Trump repeatedly has threatened Iran that if these negotiations wouldn't go in a positive way and both sides reach a positive agreement, then there will be huge consequences. He mentioned about attacking Iran.
And he kept repeating that he is trying to avoid something that it will cost Iran a lot of blood even. He clearly mentioned that. So there are talks about war. There are talks about
attack on Iran, which Iran also has responded that Iran also is getting ready if something happened to Iran. If any country decides to attack Iran, Iran will respond that. So the stake is quite high.
And in other bilateral talks, China and the United States say they've made progress to avert an all-out trade war. The US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant described the discussions in Geneva as productive and constructive. China's Vice Premier He Lefong spoke of important progress. Few other details have been given, but the two sides say they will issue a joint statement later on Monday. Imogen Folks reports from Geneva.
Before these talks began, the U.S. Treasury Secretary warned against expecting any major breakthrough. But after two days face-to-face with Chinese diplomats, Scott Besant seemed more optimistic. Agreement was reached more quickly than expected, U.S. officials said.
Although neither side was ready to give details of what had been agreed, both countries know they need a deal that doesn't involve huge tariffs. American consumers are fond of Chinese products. If they become scarce and expensive, voters may become less fond of their president. China's economy depends on exports and the US is its single biggest market. Imogen Fowkes in Geneva.
The president of Ecuador has said there are some 40,000 gang members active in the country. Last year was the second most violent in Ecuador's history. According to government figures, a person is killed every two hours and seven are kidnapped every day. On Sunday, Ecuador held a funeral with full military honours for the 11 soldiers killed by a criminal gang on Friday during an operation against illegal gold mining in the Amazon.
President Daniel Noboa has declared three days of national mourning. This report from our America's regional editor, Leonardo Rocha. At a ceremony in Quito, the Defense Minister Giancarlo Alfredo vowed to respond with force. He also promised the government would look after the future well-being of the soldiers' families.
The 11 young men have been officially designated national heroes of Ecuador. Army commanders say the victims were part of a group of 80 soldiers deployed to the province of Orellana in the heart of the Amazon rainforest to tackle illicit mining. They say they were ambushed by a Colombian criminal organization known as Border Commando. The gang was founded by former members of Colombia's FARC rebel group that operates on both sides of the border.
They denied involvement and pointed the finger at Ecuadorian criminal gangs, who have become powerful and dangerous since striking deals with Mexican drug cartels over the past decade.
The Colombian government has condemned the killing of the 11 soldiers and has promised to cooperate with the investigation. The attack highlights the increasing involvement of organized crime in illegal mining across South America. In Ecuador, Peru, Colombia, Venezuela and Brazil, local and transnational gangs finance and control mining activities.
They operate in areas that belong to private companies or indigenous reservations, intimidating local populations and causing huge damage to the environment.
South Korean politics has experienced months of turmoil since the president, Jung Sung-nyo, declared martial law in December. He's now been impeached, but the shockwaves from that one rash act continue to reverberate. Mr. Yoon's party has now picked its candidate for next month's presidential election, but in a process that veered towards the farcical, as our Asia-Pacific editor, Mickey Bristow, explains.
There was some fanfare last Sunday when South Korea's Conservative People Power Party picked the former government minister Kim Moon-soo as its presidential candidate. But the celebrations soon turned flat. Only days later, party leaders began the process of getting rid of Mr Kim when they noticed another contender was more popular in the polls.
Mr Kim pushed back and unsuccessfully tried to stop the plan in the courts. They tried to oust a candidate chosen through a legitimate process, he complained. Party leaders pushed on regardless. They held a midnight meeting and at 3am on Saturday morning opened a one-hour window to register the contender, South Korea's recent acting president Han Duk-soo, as their sole candidate.
Mr Kim was furious, but appeared to have been sidelined. Party leaders, though, had to get approval for changing candidates from rank-and-file members, and in a vote later on Saturday they rejected the switch. Mr Kim was re-nominated, and on Sunday officially registered as the People Power Party candidate. Picked, unpicked, and then picked again. Perhaps not the best way to start an election campaign, but
but an episode that seems in keeping with the state of South Korean politics. Mickey Bristow. And that's all from us for now, but there will be a new edition of the Global News Podcast later. If you want to comment on this podcast or the topics covered in it, you can send us an email. The address is globalpodcast at bbc.co.uk.
You can also find us on X at BBC World Service. Use the hashtag Global News Pod. This edition was mixed by Nick Randall. The producer was Alison Davies. The editor is Karen Martin. I'm Rachel Wright. Until next time, goodbye.