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Commodities Outlook: What’s Driving Oil, Gold, and Base Metals
2025/7/1
Goldman Sachs Exchanges
D
Dan Stroivin
Dan Stroivin: 近期中东局势导致油价波动，但迅速回落，低于预期。地缘政治风险溢价虽曾飙升，但因石油交易员已多次经历类似冲击且供应未受影响而迅速回落。美中两国均有确保石油供应畅通的强烈动机。许多交易员因预期未来库存增加而不愿押注油价上涨。若局势升级，油价可能大幅上涨，但基本预期仍是供应充足。中国为实现能源供应多元化，将减少对外国石油天然气的依赖，利好铜等绿色金属。全球石油供应增长强劲，预计未来一年油价将下跌。供应增长主要来自OPEC+国家解除减产及非OPEC国家增产。美国页岩油产量或不会如预期般下降。全球石油需求增长相对温和，中国石油需求因转向电动汽车而停滞，导致GDP增长与石油需求增长差距扩大。热浪对能源价格有利，但主要影响电力市场。总体而言，石油市场面临供应过剩和需求疲软的双重压力。
Deep Dive
This chapter analyzes the recent volatility in oil prices, examining the impact of geopolitical events in the Middle East and the surprisingly muted market response. It explores the reasons behind the price retreat from recent highs and discusses potential future price scenarios, including the impact of supply disruptions and increased production from various sources.
- Geopolitical risk premium in oil spiked to over $15 per barrel, then retreated to a couple of dollars.
- Oil traders have experienced several geopolitical shocks without disruptions to oil flows.
- Iran's response to the conflict was muted.
- U.S. and China have incentives to maintain oil flows.
- Traders are reluctant to position for sharp price upside due to expected inventory builds.
- Crude oil could spike above $90 per barrel if Iranian supply drops sharply, and above $110 in an extreme scenario.
- Strong supply growth is expected, with global supply growing four times faster than demand.
- OPEC+ producers are unwinding production cuts, and non-OPEC countries are increasing production.
- U.S. shale supply is expected to decline modestly.
- The last 10 years saw U.S. shale drive 100% of global supply growth, but this trend is partially reversing.
Shownotes Transcript