PGA preview! Rory post-Slam, Bryson and why it's a short list of contenders
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Hello and welcome into this edition of the Golf Show Podcast with Rex and Lav. Happy PGA Championship Week for all who celebrate. And Rex, if we were running down the early week storylines here at Quail Hollow, number one, it is rained. Number two, it is rained. Number three, it is rained and quite possibly it could rain even more, not just on Wednesday, but also Thursday morning as well. With that in mind, how has your PGA Championship Week been going so far?

A little wet and soggy. I actually had a line on today's early live from. You were on the midday live from. I was on the early live from where I was doing a report from the fairway. And I told Todd, two things can be true here at Cuero Jala. One, it's raining. Or two, it's about to rain. Because that feels like where we're at right now. And I want to just start the podcast. Because you've done a really good job these last two days. You seem to have really taken to the midday live from set. I'm very impressed. I'm happy for my friend. All the success you're having. But this podcast is going to be bad.

I can feel it already because you don't have any new takes. You're just going to recycle takes that you've been spewing on that desk for two days now because I know you have nothing new left in the tank. I mean, I was already recycling by the time we got to the back end of it. It was six and a half hours, Rex, of TV. I don't know how A.O., Aaron Oberholzer, and Paige McKenzie have done it

over Tuesday, Wednesday here at the PGA Championship. They were on air for like 16 hours. There is nothing else to talk about at this PGA Championship. We've covered it all. And if history is any indication, something we did not talk about is going to be the predominant storyline here at the PGA Championship because that's just how it tends to go with these things.

It has been raining, almost four inches of rain since late last week here in Charlotte. What are you anticipating from the golf course besides this thing being a soggy slop? Well, you asked me storylines, and I'm not going to lean into where we were on Sunday night when I had to correct you when you said that Rory McIlroy was going to be A, B, C, D, E, F. A through F.

F I think is what you said and I kind of had to walk you back on that one let's give him A and then B as well I think after that there's plenty of other storylines and the way I kind of reported it this morning with the way the weather and this golf course is shaping up it's TPC Roy McIlroy is what this place is he's won here four times he owns the course record there is a

He always seems to have a pep in his step now after completing the Grand Slam, but certainly that's the case showing up here at Coyle Hollow. In every passing rain shower, every one of these squalls that have moved to the area have only made him more of a betting favorite because it's only going to what you seem to lean into every time he finds himself in contention that he's never won a tournament.

when the winning score wasn't double digits under par. Well, I can guarantee you that won't be the conversation this week where we will be. You and I both did punch shots. I think I put 12 under par was going to be the winning score. I can get into that later, but certainly Rory is going to be at the top of any storyline we talk about. I am fascinated by the idea that,

You could probably also make really compelling arguments that Scotty Scheffler coming off that commanding win in Dallas two weeks ago, you can make an argument that Bryson DeChambeau, who seems to have found the fix for whatever the iron woes that sort of plagued him at Augusta, that Justin Thomas, who's returning to a place where he's won the PGA Championship, having won this year on the PGA Tour, they would be easy co-favorites in my mind. I mean, we can make arguments for that across the board, but clearly it's Rory. I want to start.

I don't disagree that he is the predominant storyline player-wise. I think just to button up the golf course talk, because that has been at least the discussion point for the last three days leading into the year's second major. Okay. So, PGA of America officials, at least when they spoke to the media on Tuesday, had not cut the fairways as of last Friday, and they had not touched the rough.

since last Saturday. They were not anticipating that they were going to put their hands on the rough any longer. It's not necessarily long wrecks, but it's uniform and it's dense and it's thick. That's even going to be more so the case, obviously, after the significant rainfall that we've had on Monday and Tuesday this week. There is an interesting quirk about Quail Hollow Club and that there is sub-air underneath the putting surfaces.

And they recently redid the greens. And so the greens are actually quite firm. Like you would never know that we had nearly four inches of rain over the past week. But the fairways are sloppy. They're soggy. There's virtually no run out as as we are recording this podcast now at four o'clock Eastern Time on Wednesday, the open question is.

is whether the PGA of America officials are going to play preferred lies, lift clean in place in the fairway for at least the opening round to give players a little bit of an out. The rounds could be insanely long if they're calling for rules officials to try and get relief from standing water, however the case is going to be. That has not happened very often. In fact, I believe the only known occurrence in recent memory

was this playing preferred lies, the final round of the 2016 PGA Championship at Baltusrol, won by Jimmy Walker. 17.

2017 PGA Championship was here at Quail Hollow. That week was burned out and baked. Oh, okay. It was 2016. 16, you're right. 36 hole on Sunday, just trying to get it in and not push it to Monday. So those were sort of extenuating circumstances. I'm sure Kerry Hagan Company do not want to get to that position. I actually think more interesting than lift clean in place is what's going to happen most likely on Saturday.

when the warmer temperatures come through, the wind comes through and the mud rises to the surface and you are going to get a prevalence of mud balls at this championship, how that could potentially affect it. I think that is sort of something to keep an eye on over the next 48 to 72 hours.

No, I was a little late scrambling over here. You wanted to pot as soon as we were done with live from and I was on the range talking with people about this. I actually talked to Kerry Hague about this yesterday after their press conference. And you're right, 2016 at Baltus Raw. But even that was sort of extenuating circumstances. They had to finish up two rounds of

on Sunday and I asked Kerry point blank, what's the motivating factor here? How do you get to finally doing this? Something he clearly doesn't want to do and the PG of America doesn't want to do. And his quote to me was, if we could not have played without doing it, then that's our motivation.

And so to your point where you said Thursday is going to be interesting, I don't even think it's a conversation now. I would actually be surprised if Kerry Hague decides to play the ball up on Thursday because it's not going to be a question of finishing on Thursday. Where the drama, where the interest is going to come in is you're right. Anyone who knows how mud balls are created, it's not an issue today. There's so much water in the fairway, as you just pointed out, that the water is just washing the golf balls off as they roll down the fairway. That's not the issue. It will be after two or three days.

of sunshine, hot temperatures. And I can tell you this, if there is anything in the game that unites professional golfers, the one thing that it is, is a burning hatred of

for mud balls. And it's because you're giving them a variable that you cannot account for it. And you're also sort of dumbing down the sport. You're taking someone who probably is really, really good with a six iron and he knows he's better than probably 90% of the field. And suddenly they have a mud ball and don't have a clue what this is going to go. I remember having this conversation with Colin Morikawa a few years ago, where the general idea is if mud is on the right side of the ball, the ball is going to fly left.

But even that is not an exact science. Like, I think that's just sort of a bit of a wives tale that players try to convince themselves that. But I remember asking Colin, what do you do if the mud's on the front of the ball?

And he stopped and he goes, I don't have a clue to you. And I thought he was being kind of snippy. And I'm like, no. And he goes, no, really I'm asking, like, has anyone told you anything that makes sense to you? Because it drives players like Colomora Cower, who is so brilliant with his irons and you're dumbing down the product. And you're right. It's going to be a shame if we get to Saturday, because I don't see Kerry Haig deciding to do this unless he absolutely has to. Keep in mind, the forecast is going to be, uh,

dramatically different over these next four days where it's been sort of, you know, kind of nice. It was last three days besides the pop-up thunderstorms. We're about to turn up the furnace here. It's going to be 90 or at least heat indexes indices, excuse me,

in the mid-90s over the next four days. Leave the weather reporting to me and Berko. Please just stop. Just stop. You're embarrassing yourself. Potential for 25-mile-an-hour gusts on Saturday. I think from a playability standpoint, you could talk about playing it

playing it down, mud balls of prevalence, and that's going to have over the next four competitive rounds as well. I think from just a playability standpoint, it's going to be very interesting. Obviously, these are pretty generous fairways as is. There's already an increased importance on hitting them with how long it's going to be. They're going to play obviously wider. Misses are going to stay in the fairway as opposed to bouncing into the rough. But there's an interesting contrast, Rex, where you're really going to have to carry the ball, probably going to have to hit it high

higher than you do than you typically would to maximize your carry distance but you're going to have longer shots into greens that are really firm and not necessarily receptive and so you're coming into the greens with longer clubs and not necessarily able to hold them as you would on greens that are probably a little bit more mature so I think that's going to be an interesting contest as

All right. That's enough of the weather. That's enough of the forecast. That's enough of the golf course. You mentioned Rory McIlroy spoke media on Wednesday morning. Did anything stand out to you, Rex, as he is now making his first major championship appearance since he kept he captured the final leg of the career Grand Slam?

It stood out because we had addressed this on Sunday night at the Masters, and I'm sure you and I have talked about it. And he vocalized it probably better today than he had before, just about the idea that anything that happens from here on out is just gravy. I've accomplished everything I want to accomplish in my career.

transplant that notion into any other occupation journalism for example i have no idea what would get me to the top of the mountain where i would just shrug and think to myself no i'm good i i can just roll with whatever happens from here i i don't know are you saying are you saying becoming gwa president is not going everything after that is now just going to be a bonus

No, no, that's not. My pro bono job is very rewarding, but I don't think that gets me to the top of the mountain to answer your question. But I mean, think about it. And I'm open to suggestions here because it's,

It's fun to hear him talk about this. It's enlightening to watch how he just walks lighter now. I mean, you can see that pressure, everything that with that burden that was on his shoulder has been lifted and he's decided that, no, I'm going to enjoy whatever is left. And for him to put it in context, the way he did today, when he spoke with the media, even to the extreme that, okay, the career grand slam, uh,

was on your wall. That was the top check mark that you wanted to accomplish. Well, you put another, whatever accomplishment you may want on the wall, becoming the most

winning the most majors for a European, becoming the all-time most winningest European, whatever the case may be. And even he dismissed that. No, I felt how hard it is to have these burdens on you for a decade, to put these expectations on yourself and how difficult and everything that takes out of you. I'm not going to do that anymore. I don't know that I could imagine anyone else in any other line of life that would come up with this kind of scenario. And I can certainly understand it.

From a human level, I certainly understand that there has to be some sort of feeling of satisfaction, a feeling of contentment, a general feeling that you sort of want to exhale after you accomplish something that was a career goal of yours. I still wonder how he can refill his tank today.

you know, that he expended so much and he's finally done this. How do you now fill yourself back up after such a momentous achievement saying that everything after this is going to be a bonus. And I know we keep,

sort of circling back on this, but because I think it's, I think it's relevant. When you look back at what happened with Tiger and the Tiger slam in 01, the remaining three major championships that year, he did not finish inside the top 10. Tiger Woods is not known to coast. Tiger Woods is not known to celebrate. Tiger Woods is not known to savor in the accomplishments and the achievements. Those two players, Tiger and Rory are built dramatically different.

And I just think, you know, maybe he was just saying it publicly because, again, to your point, he didn't want to then burden himself with another number.

whether it's eight to surpass Nick Faldo or whether it's 10 to surpass Gary players, the winningest international player ever. Like I totally get that. And just tempering the expectations, knowing what the outside narrative is. I think from a human level, I certainly understand that and not wanting to burden himself all over again after dealing with this for the past decade. But I do think it would be a shame if there is some sort of let off that

or some sort of disappointment because we look at Roy McIlroy right now at age 36. He's playing some of the best golf, if not the best golf of his entire career. You just don't want to see him take the foot off the accelerator. You'd love to see him sort of push the finish line and see exactly how good he could become.

No, and I think that's entirely fair. Again, this is just sort of a case study into the human mind of someone who has accomplished essentially what you set out to accomplish in your professional life. And it's hard for me to wrap my mind around. It's probably hard for most people to wrap their mind around. There is probably something to what you're saying that this I don't even want to call it a defense net mechanism. He's determined to take the victory lap, to savor this, to make the most of it. Yeah.

As he should. As he absolutely should. I think the thing that he said in his press conference today that stood out to me was that could be the highlight of my career when I look back. And it certainly could be. And I think we touched on this. There's other things that I think may someday end up not surpassing that moment because I don't think that's going to happen. But it could rival.

being a Ryder Cup captain, winning a Ryder Cup as a captain on American soil. All of those things may be getting inching. And look, this is getting over the skis here, but inching closer in the major countdown to Tiger Woods. That seems outlandish to think, but certainly. Ten! He's got to go ten more!

I know. And again, this goes to the conversation. I think that you probably talked about ad nauseum over the last two days, the idea of, is this going to open up the floodgates? And it certainly could. It certainly doesn't hurt that he's showing up at a golf course that he essentially owns. And to your point, he's playing the best golf,

of his absolute career. We have a colleague of ours, Shane Ryan of golf digest. So you and I both do a lot of round tables with, we like Shane a lot, but he decided to lean into Wednesday. He didn't. And I will, you haven't had a chance to read it because you've been busy, but Shane actually wrote the story in a very self-deprecating way on golf, golf digest.com where he kind of calls himself out. Like I thought I had a good story idea and Rory clearly had no interest.

So I recommend everyone to go to read it. But the idea of the story was Shane asked everyone who came through the interview center this week, if you can borrow or take someone else's talent in a particular area of the game that you're impressed with, that you like, what would it be? And most players, everyone except for Rory, in my mind, played along. And I think most guys either said the way Rory McIlroy drives the ball or Jordan Spieth's short game or Sam Burns' putting. That was Scotty Sheffley. Scotty's irons.

Scotty Zions, whatever the case may be, everyone played along. But he asked Rory this morning and Rory's response. No one else had this response. No, I'm good with what I have. And Shane tried to double down and go, no, you have to. And Rory's response was, no, I don't. No, I don't. And it was a very I mean, it was a very flex thing to do, in my opinion, that no, I'm good with everything I have. I'll stack whatever I have up against whatever someone else adds up. That's a flex, man.

He actually tripled down. Shea went back and said, okay. He did.

Whose skill set do you admire? One particular part of the game. And Roy says simply to shut him down finally for the third time and final time. I'm focused on myself. It is interesting, Rex, when you look at what Roy McIlroy said before Pebble Beach this year. Right. So that was his 2025 PGA Tour debut. And he told the BBC Ian Carter he has three remaining career goals. Big picture. One, he wanted to win the Masters. He checked that one off.

Two, he wanted to win an Olympic medal. Had a shot last year in Paris. Was unable to get it done on the back nine. His next shot is going to be in L.A. in 2020. He's going to have to wait a little while in order to do that. Three, he wants to win an away Ryder Cup. He's already done it once as part of the 2012 European Ryder Cup team with the Miracle at Medina.

But he thinks, at least in this current environment, when the blowouts we've had over the last five Ryder Cups, that is one of the most difficult things to do in all of sports is to win in a Ryder Cup. Whether he's going to do that as a player, whether he's potentially going to do that as a captain, that remains an outstanding goal for him. So there are still things that are out there

for Rory to accomplish. And I don't think all of a sudden on the weekend at the PGA championship, if he's in the mix, all of a sudden he's going to be relaxed and he, you know, he's, he's going to be loose and amiable with his playing competitors. All of a sudden he's going to be able to click back in. But I do think with where Rory is in his life,

What he has just accomplished, where he is with his career, where he is with his game right now, and where he is lining up with these next couple of major championship venues, whether it's Quail Hollow, a place he's won four times, whether it's Oakmont, a place where his driving should be of paramount importance and should give him a significant edge. Oh, yeah, and then the home game at Royal Portrush, the Open Championship.

there's plenty of reasons for him to click back in, refocus. I'm just curious, will he have enough sort of mental stamina, mental strength after the past month and the whirlwind of emotions that he has had, whether this could be potentially the week for Roy McIlroy. How about some of the other players, Rex, that you are keeping an eye on that you think really after what we've learned over these past couple of days about the golf course, about the forecast, about what they have told you specifically about,

gives you, I guess, what sort of insights do you have? This goes back to the Shane Ryan story, and it led to another conversation where so many players said they wanted to drive the ball like Rory McIlroy.

for all the right reasons. I think everyone would want to do that. However, and this is a really hard comparison, and I will point to what Brandel Shambly said on Tuesday nights live from when he was actually talking about Bryson's driving. He was actually a little dubious of the stats that come out of Liv Goff. I'm not saying that. Please don't at me. At Brandel.

But he was saying the stats seem dubious because when you look at what Brando is doing, what Bryson is doing on live this year with his driver, I think he's averaging 323 yards off the tee and hitting 65 percent of his fairways. That seems outrageous. I'm not questioning it. Brando did at him. Don't at me on this one. But if that's are you saying are you suggesting or is Brando suggesting that lives fluffing the number?

I think, yes. Again, I don't want to speak for Brando. You can probably ask him. He'll be on the set there pretty soon. You should wait around and find that out. However, if those numbers are correct, you can make an argument that Bryson might be the best driver of the golf ball right now. In fact, I did. In fact, I did make that argument online. I think statistically, even if you exclude Bryson,

some of these sort of outlier live performances, which again, I don't think we have any reason to question the authenticity of them. He's gaining Rex nearly two shots on the field off the tee. Now, again, that's relative to his live performance.

playing competitors. You can't take that and then cross-reference it with PGA Tour players. It's against live competition. I think that's important to note. But if he were doing that on the PGA Tour, again, that's a big if, that would be a half shot better than peak Roy McIlroy with his driver. It is by far the best driving year of Bryson DeChambeau's career, and it's even better than what peak Roy would have been.

So that fascinates me because to get back to the golf course for a minute, when you look at the course breakdown, when it comes to driver bias, this ranks third on the PGA Tour. You have to drive the ball long. You have to drive the ball straight and you have to hit it really, really high. Those two players probably do it better than anyone in the game. And then you factor in with with Bryson that go back to Augusta.

And the one thing you had to do well there, which is your iron play, your approach play, he really struggled all week, finally caught up with him on Sunday. But when he talked about it this week, he felt like he found a fix. And the next few weeks, clearly he ended up winning on the live tour in Korea. So he comes in here with a strange level of confidence.

and my mind because as much as we can lean into Rory and I do think he should be the clear favorite, I would put Bryson very closely behind him. And I think we did this. I'm sure you did this today on live from if you pick those four players that I mentioned off the top, it would be Rory. It would be Bryson. It would be Scotty. It would be JT of those four. I can probably pick apart and look where to use your term. I'm picking knits.

at this point. But I can probably make an argument that, okay, it seems like JT is doing something different with his swing. Matt Killen and him have been working together a little while. It seems like JT's dad's not as much as involved in his swing. So maybe there's a bit of a transition there. When it comes to Bryson, I'll go back to the iron play at Augusta, and that's going to be tested here this week. When it comes to Scottie, there is just simply a lack of experience

on this golf course. The only time he's played here is at the 2022 President's Cup, and he didn't play particularly well. I think he earned half a point for the week. So you can pick apart three of those four. I would have a hard time finding a way to pick apart Rory. All that being said, I think we could end up with that dream scenario that we had at Augusta, where you have Rory and Bryson going head-to-head in the final round. It's hard to believe, but I think it's a very likely possibility.

Oh, I even threw Scotty Scheffler in the mix. I said a three-hole playoff.

With those three players, Roy McIlroy, Scotty Shuffler, and Zanar Shuffler. Stay tuned to the end of the podcast when I tell you who I picked to emerge from that three-hole playoff and those three players. I see what you're saying. It was very interesting. So AO, Aaron Oberholzer, and Paige McKenzie, they did hole-by-hole visuals and aerials of the golf course. And I sort of just sit there and listen and soak up the knowledge. Nod. Just nod. But one thing that I think was like a constant theme was

was that on all these dog legs, Ayo just kept saying, and if you're a big hitter, you can carry this. If you're a big hitter, you can fly it over these bunkers. If you're a big hitter, you can fly it over these trees. Like there is such a bias towards high ball, long driving hitters. And when you look at, at least in recent years in particular, I know there's been some sort of oddball winners of what is now known as the truest championship games.

It's a Wyndham Clark. Xander Shoffley's finished second the last two years it was contested here. Roy McIlroy obviously has a great history here. Phil Mickelson, although he probably didn't win as many times as he probably should have, has a great history. Tony Finau has a great history here. All of those guys have in common that they can absolutely soar it.

over the trees and just having that hole by hole breakdown sort of solidify what we already probably knew heading into this, that if it is not, I would even throw Xander Shoffley in that mix as well with your five players. So it's Scotty Shuffler, Roy McRae, Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Thomas, Xander Shoffley. I would take those five guys, uh,

over the rest of the field for this PGA championship. I know that's outlandish. I know there's 156 guys. I know it's the strongest major championship field. I know Kerry Hague does a fantastic job of making this a test of execution and a championship test. I would still take those five guys over the rest of the field just because of how their skill set fits with this golf course.

I mean, you going five deep is much better than our friend Mark Slaball did at ESPN, where he only chose to go two deep in that top tier. So, no, I appreciate you at least taking a wider view on that one. To Xander Shoffley, and I did report on this earlier in the show because I had a chance to talk to Xander this morning after he did some putting.

on the green and clearly his putting has been what has separated him at least statistically from where he was at this point last year versus where he is now you look at where the struggles have been it's been mostly on the green he hasn't had the touch but when i talked to xander today and asked him are you doing anything different because apparently he turned a corner

last week at the Truist Championship. He finished eighth for the week in strokes game putting. It was probably his best putting week of the year statistically by far. And he said, absolutely not. I'm doing everything the same. My routine, the way I prepare to walk into shots, the way I read putts, certainly equipment wise. He felt like last week he just started to see putts fall.

the hall and that was really just the difference and it felt memorable is what he told me it felt like this is familiar to me and i can go back and essentially he said it's just words repeat i know after last year that everything i do can lead me in a good direction and he's continuing to do that you're right i would put him in that five category for that reason

Yeah, a little bit of a slow burn for Xander Shoffley this year, but he certainly seems like he's simmering. If he does not quite pop this week at the PGA, which again, I would not be surprised if he is deep into contention on Sunday. He feels like a great play for Oakmont and the U.S. Open. His U.S. Open record is spectacular.

though he has never won, never finished worse than 14th, six top seven finishes in his last seven years. Like the dude is always in the mix. One of the most complete well-rounded players. I'd love to have Xander get back in the mix here this week at Quell Hollow. Let's go a little bit deeper, Rex. So we are, we already have said, these are the five players who can win, but people have office pools. People play daily fantasy. People want to gamble their hard earned money.

for some top 10, top six plays. Who are a couple other players who maybe they won't win, but who could have good weeks that wouldn't necessarily surprise you? If you could even circle back to the punch shot that we had on mpsports.com slash golf if you want.

So I didn't see who you picked, and I'm not quite sure if I did this right. This is kind of on me. You and I actually both struggle a little bit. The way our editor, Fred, put this is he wanted a dark horse candidate. He said 75 to 1, which is a dark horse.

which is a dark horse. However, the website that he sent us didn't do the 75 to one thing. It did the plus whatever. And so I have 70, 7,500 is, is 75 to one. So I think I got this right. If I'm not, even I know that.

Jason Day is at plus 7,500, 75 to one. And for a lot of different reasons, one, he's won this PGA championship before. He knows what it takes to win this. He's won on this golf course before. He's won on this golf course before. And I think his game is in a place that it probably hasn't been in the last couple of years. He is comfortable. I'm not saying that I expect him to do that. And I wrestled between Jason Day and Will Zalatouris because Will Zalatouris,

has also played well here before. And I think he has the game that you just talked about to do that AO thing and cut all of those corners and to maybe overpower this golf course. But I went with Jason.

I think Jason makes a ton of sense. He did have a neck injury, ended up WDing last week in the 2S Championship. Because of that, he's been out here practicing. It does not seem to be a hindrance for this week in the PGA Championship. I went a little bit deeper, not much deeper. I thought about Justin Rose. Justin Rose, the 44-year-old, soon to be 45-year-old, who has, of course,

finished runner-up in the last two major championships that have been played. Not sure he has quite the technical precision and the length that he is going to need to keep up. Another player, although I think probably for a top six, a top 10, he has been among the best PGA Championship performers over the past half decade or so. So I think that's worth keeping in mind as well if you're filling out sort of your office pools. I actually went, Rex, with Patrick Reed last

who is 90 to one. Again, I don't think he's necessarily a favorite to win this golf tournament. One of the shorter hitters, actually a little bit crooked, but he has finished third at the Masters. He's been playing well around the world. His short game remains as sharp as ever. And he actually has a decent record in decidedly different conditions

at Quell Hollow, tied for second, the log jam there in 2017. He also had two other top 10 finishes here at what was then known as the Wells Fargo Championship. And so if this becomes sort of a slugfest, right, where the winning score is, you know, 8 to 11 under par, I think I went a little bit deep with my prediction, somewhere between 14 and 16 under par. If it becomes a little bit more of a slugfest like we saw in 2017, I think that sort of works to,

Patrick Reed's advantage because his scrambling is just so elite. Uh,

Yes, that was an interesting one because you're kind of comparing two different Quail Hollows when you're talking about how this golf course played. Certainly when it hosted the PGA Championship back in 2017, that was in August. So it was played, it was much more firmer, faster, and it was also played on Bermuda grass. So it was a different golf course. You kind of have to factor these things in a little bit. Now that was one at eight under par. The average winning score of essentially the truest over the last five years is 16 under par, which is played this time of year.

So I just kind of split the difference on that one and went with 12. But I think you're right. Anything around that number is probably going to be pretty good. And it could open it up to a grinder, someone like Patrick Reed. I'm not against that. We've just sit here and talk for almost 30 minutes, however, about how this is a long, slow, burly golf course. And it's only going to be one kind of player that really has a chance to win here. And I don't see Patrick Reed being it.

With that in mind, Rex, what shot are you giving Jordan Spieth to capture the final leg of the career run slam? One of the other punt shots we did was who's going to leave here disappointed. And I went with Jordan Spieth and I know that breaks your heart. So did I.

Oh, really? Wow. You're going to get expelled from the fan club. That's not going to work at all. And I was quick to caveat this and say that I can see him playing well and posting a good number this week, maybe even a top 10. But no, I don't think he has any chance of winning here. And that means that he's going to have to wait a whole nother year to have a chance at the career Grand Slam. It's not heartbreaking, but I think when you put it in context, he knows that even in his peak form, when he was at his absolute best, this would not have been the type of test that

that he's best at. I want to go back to this morning's live from meeting that I was on at 630 a.m. And your friend, A.L., who you referenced a couple of times, he's been a little under the weather this week. And so Tuesday's 630 live from meeting was very rare because he didn't say anything at all. And as we know, that's not A.L. As soon as I got on this morning's meeting, he was ranting about the idea that not only is no one going to win the career grand slam this year or next year, whatever the case may be,

his take was no one is ever going to complete the Grand Slam again. That was my reaction. We had a 10-minute discussion on the show about that very topic. That is not what AO said on the show. In fact, he said Xander Shoffley is the most likely to do so. It was Todd Lewis who came out and said he did not think that that was going to happen. In our lifetimes, we were not going to see another career Grand Slam winner. I actually countered with that.

with a little bit of statistical basis, saying that if you look at the last 13 years, only two players outside the top 40 in the official World Golf ranking have won a major. One of those was Phil Mickelson at the PGA Championship in 2021. I would throw him out, or at least put that with an asterisk. He's a Hall of Fame player, one of the best players

ever to do it. So I don't really count him as being outside the top 40. All of the major championships now are being won by a concentrated group of players because there is now a reliance, at least at how the game is currently constituted of speed of power of distance that translated to more distance off the tee, but it also has turned, uh,

you know, rough into not as much of a deterrent because these guys are faster and stronger, able to elevate it out of there. And so these major championships have become ball striking contests through and through. And who are the best players in the world?

They are the best ball strikers, whether it's Rory, whether it's Scotty, whether it's Bryson DeChambeau. So I, in Xander Shoffley, I think you would put him in that category as well. And I think it's a big reason why he ticked off two of them last year. And so they're being distilled. Now it's just a matter of, can you win the right one that week? Like it would not surprise me at all if Xander Shoffley wins the PGA championship. Well, he's already won one PGA. Just,

just now all of a sudden he's just got three, you know, but it's not, it's not necessarily winning the right one. So I do think it can happen. I'm not sure it necessarily will happen, but there's, I think a couple of players, whether it's Scotty Shuffler, John Rahm, or Xander Shoffley, who make a ton of sense, who are all 30 years or younger, who have, I think the next half decade to, to pick up a couple more legs of that.

Yeah, not happening in our lifetime just seems extreme. Not happening at all seems impossible because to your point, you're right. It seems to me the talent, at least at this level, is concentrated very high. I think the counter to that to a certain degree is as impressive as Scottie Scheffler has been over the last three years, four years, and he's been wildly impressive. He has two major championships, both of them at the Masters.

So he has done things that only Tiger has really you can compare Tiger to. However, he is still three big legs away from doing it. So you get an idea of how difficult it is. And we also can't gloss over the idea that Rory struggled for an entire decade to get it done. I'm not quite sure how many players would be able to do that. It feels like a market correction is going to be coming as it relates to Scottie Scheffler. Right. Like he is the most accurate player.

of the elite players. He's the best iron player. He's peerless in that regard. He's the best iron player since Tiger Woods. He's the number one scrambler on the PGA Tour, and his putting in particular inside 10 feet has gotten demonstrably better year

year over year like he has the skill set that translates to every major championship even the open championship he had a chance to win that last year he just has a knack for shot shaping great lag putter like his skill set I think transcends I think it feels like a market correctionist coming as it relates to Scottie Schoenflur could even come this week at the PGA all right we've gone 35 minutes who is your winner of the PGA championship and why

Roy McIlroy, for all the reasons we've talked about for 35 minutes, his record on this golf course, the course record, what he has been able to do this season. He is by far the most dominant player in golf over the last four months of this year. And I think there is something to the idea and where we'll continue to dissect this, but the weight has been lifted.

However freeing, however mentally that lets you go, I'm not quite sure. But there is going to be something to it. Everything that he said today and over the last really couple weeks since he won at the Masters, if you believe everything that he said, and I have a tendency to believe everything that he has said, that he is completely content in his life. I can only imagine.

what that must feel like. And you're also putting your place yourself into a place where all you want is that freedom, that joy, what you felt like on Sunday, that that's what you crave now. And yes, I think he's going to be singular motivated to do it. And he's the easy favorite for a lot of different reasons.

Yeah. I mean, hard to disagree with that. I don't feel necessarily strongly about this pick again. I think it's going to come down to a list of five. I'm taking Bryson to Shambo for a couple of different reasons. There's no one on the planet, whether it's Rory, whether it's Scotty, whether it's Xander, whether it's Justin Thomas, whether it's any other big name player on the planet, no one is, is driving the golf ball better than Bryson is at the moment. And with that in mind, it's difficult to conjure up a more perfect venue for Bryson to Shambo at this exact moment because

than this 7,600 yard behemoth, or he can cut the bunkers. He can cut the corners on the dog legs and just give himself such a massive advantage with shorter clubs coming into these greens. I will admit that his iron play is more of a question mark than it is for the other top players. It's the only reason why he did not win the masters last month. He was nearly last in the field in approach play. He says he found a fix. He says he's hitting it better. The stats bear that out. Uh,

in a career as well with the live event that he won there. And I think his short game is tidy enough and his putting. I know it's a small sample size. No one has putted these greens better than Bryson DeChambeau has in his career. I think you also can't discount the revenge factor as well, trying to get one back up on Rory after what happened in the final group on Sunday at the Masters.

All right. That is going to do it for this edition. Golf show podcast with Rex and lab, just as a reminder, beginning tomorrow, Thursday, opening round of the PGA championship. Rex and I will have many pods after each and each and every round leading into Sunday. We will do the full 52 minute edition. It's going to be made for linear television on Monday. That will of course be reheated at nine and 11 AM. And of course it'll appear on golf channels, YouTube page.

In the meantime, you guys know the drill. NBCSports.com slash golf for all the latest news, notes, and updates. I'm going to strip down out of this monkey suit, put on my reporter hat, my writer hat for the remaining four days of this championship. Look forward to seeing you on Thursday. Thanks for listening. Thanks for the support. Two contributors cutting it up. This Father's Day helped Dad be all he can be with a gift from the Home Depot because he's not just Dad. He's the handyman of the house, the plumber in a pinch, and the emergency mechanic.

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