Shownotes Transcript
Hey, pull up a chair. It's Hacks on Tap with David Axelrod and Mike Murphy. I've spoken to everybody. Israel is doing very well, as you probably noticed. And I gave Iran 60 days, and they said no. And the 61st, you saw what happened. Day 61. So I'm in constant touch.
And as I've been saying, I think a deal will be signed or something will happen, but a deal will be signed. And I think Iran is foolish not to sign one. Mike Murphy, we've got a hell of a story brewing over there in the Middle East. And it may not be what most Americans are waking up thinking about every morning, but it's pretty impactful and pretty interesting.
Big, big, big. I mean, it's one of those tough call situations. Nobody wants the Iranian regime to have nukes. But, you know, Bibi, due to his own political problems, is kind of a hair trigger. So here we are. It's been sort of successful now because the Iranians are sending signals they want to negotiate. So it's a good time for ceasefire and to move in that direction. Worst case, we have the capability to go after Nataz. But it's very...
radiation risky. So tough one. I didn't mean to put in a quarter and get the whole three plays. I'm only getting started. But we have the thing, which since we are hacks on tap, the thing that's interesting is how does this impact on the politics of our country and how does it impact on Donald J. Trump? And we have the perfect guest today, the perfect guest hack, someone who's lived inside
that, uh, between the ears and under that thatched orange head. She's literally calling us from behind the right, uh, eyebrow right now, deep inside the head. Okay. Yeah. Maggie Haberman of the New York Times. Hello, Maggie. Hi guys. Author of con man and, uh, author of confidence, man, confidence, man. Yes. I said for purposes of time, I, I shrunk down the title of the book. So, uh, sorry about that. So Maggie, uh,
It seems like, am I wrong about this, but it seems like Bibi Netanyahu has maneuvered Donald Trump here into a very fateful, potentially a very fateful decision.
I think there's a lot we still don't know. And again, thanks for having me to both of you. Always. Thanks for referencing the Confidence Man paperback, which just came out. Available on Amazon.com. I think that I'm trying to think how to say this. There's...
There's a lot we don't know. I think there's a lot that we're going to learn in the coming days. I do think that it is clear that and my colleagues and I reported on this a couple of weeks ago. Trump has waived at twice, actually, in May. Trump that we reported on this Trump.
waved off Netanyahu from moving ahead on one attack, at least one that we know of that Netanyahu was interested in. And then we know that there were other efforts in the month of May by Netanyahu. What is clear is that Netanyahu has been on a steady push
to attack what he believes is a weakened Iran and that that puts Donald Trump in something of a quagmire because Donald Trump has said over and over again, as the White House has noted,
on Tuesday morning several times, and I think in some kind of a news release on the White House website, he has said over and over, Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. That's not a particularly controversial position in the U.S., but it is something that he has said. He's also said he wants a negotiated settlement, and he wants to negotiate having dissolved the last
nuclear agreement with Iran. He wants to now have another nuclear agreement with Iran. And the expectation for a lot of people, both among Republicans, frankly, and concerns among more hawkish Republicans heading into the second Trump administration and uncertainty about what it would mean for more dovish Republicans and for some Democrats heading into a second Trump administration was Trump
is a deals guy and that Trump would want to pursue a deal with Iran. And there was a lot of concern that he would take something that would look pretty similar to the JCPOA. That was the treaty that
the agreement that Obama, that Obama negotiated and that Trump withdrew, you know, ripped up in his first term. Um, and that Republicans, uh, particularly hawkish Republicans have denounced for a long time. And, you know, there's been all sorts of questions about what that might look like. Um, you know, Trump has sent over his friend and envoy Steve Whitcock to negotiate with, uh, the Iranians, um,
you know, as mediated by the Omanis for, you know,
several weeks now. And there's, you know, clearly did not work out the way that Trump was hoping it would because Iran rejected the terms. But Maggie, and then I want to ask Murphy something. There was supposed to be a meeting on Sunday that was going to be a very fateful meeting this past Sunday. And Bibi acted before this. And that changed the whole
that changed the whole equation. And it does, you know, it does suggest, and I think it's been reported in places that BB didn't have a hell of a lot of confidence in
He doesn't want a negotiated settlement. He wants to destroy the nuclear facilities. And maybe I will shift it over to Murphy. Murphy, this is where your point comes in. We're the only people who have the equipment necessary to destroy these nuclear facilities that are deep inside mountains.
And heavily fortressed. You know, the Iranians are well aware of the Israeli Air Force. So they think, well, what do they not have? Big heavy bombers and these bunker buster munitions. Now, the Israelis do kind of whisper about, well, we could always land 100 commandos there and, you know, do the...
guns and navarone strategy but super risky and nobody knows by the way if you blow up the facility what kind of radiation leak you get but nonetheless i mean where it is now are the iranians are in a very weak position their ability to hammer back at israel is smaller than israel's ability to hurt them the israelis have air superiority and a much more powerful air force the
They're sideline people like the Ukrainians are. Well, while you're over there, why don't you wipe out the drone factory that's been supplying, you know, Russians? So there's it is kind of. How should I put it? Trump spoke to Putin on Saturday. Maybe he asked him not to do that. Oh, I'm sure Trump gave him his Swiss account and things are underway. But but fundamentally.
Right now, the Israelis are scoring some wins the team worried about nukes doesn't like. Because while they can't wipe out the... They can sure slow it down. And the Iranians are already squawking a little about negotiation. So it's kind of worked. The problem with Bibi is, will Bibi take a partial win, which is all he's going to get, and let it pivot? Because we can always go after that nuclear plant if we really want to. But isn't it clear, Maggie, that...
That's what BB wants. He's always wanted it. I can tell you back 15 years ago, you know, the discussions were all about,
you know, if you attacked Iran, would the, would the U S supply these, uh, uh, bunker busting bombs, which by the way, is, is different than the big, beautiful bill for people who are students of alliteration. But I think you you're raising the, the $64 million issue acts, which is what exactly has changed here, right? Because this is something, a, a, a, a line that
Netanyahu has pressed as the danger zone for some time. He has been trying to impress upon the U.S. the need to be involved. Well, first, his own, you know, we must go ahead because, you know,
Iran is on the cusp and has wanted support from the U.S. And there are obviously different versions of what support could look like. And that is something that this administration and the Biden administration and the Obama administration have all talked about. But I do think that we are in a post-October 7th, 2023 world where I think that Netanyahu is looking at things differently. I think that he believes his legacy is going to be
built in part on taking out various regional threats to Israel. You also saw, and I don't think this can be overlooked, a pretty significant threat on the existence of the Netanyahu government. Yeah, man, he's going to, the parliament may be dissolved, the Knesset shortly, and he's looking at an election.
And it better be going to that election as the conqueror of Iran, of this Iranian nuclear threat and the guy who dis dis disarmed Iran. Then as a corrupt prime minister who presided over October 7th and who still hasn't completely resigned.
what he started out to do there. Right, and he's been... And again, I don't... That's not... I just want to be clear. This is not happening...
You know, this is not in the last two weeks where this is suddenly happening. This is, you know, this has been Netanyahu's push for a while. And for all the BB issues, if you're an Israeli prime minister, you have your eye on that Iranian nuclear program. Yeah, yeah. And they have been pushing forward. They're the kind of bad dog. The minute you look away, they inch closer to the table full of food. Well, they certainly did after the...
International inspectors were ejected after he ripped up the last nuclear agreement. But the question here, because we are Hacks on Tap U.S., is for Trump, because one of the things that's changed since 15 years ago, Maggie, is that there is a real inward feeling in the country about
uh and you know i've i mean i've seen polls in the last 24 hours where like 70 percent of people say negotiate don't attack because if you said you're b-52 bombers and to destroy this you're in the war in a really overt way i mean look i don't um
I don't know what, despite your, you know, living behind the eyebrow reference, it's hard to know whether President Trump... That's a scary thing, by the way, but go ahead. Thanks. It's hard to know whether President Trump is... First of all, Trump doesn't tend to look in terms of long-term projections. Yes, yes, he's a checkers player. He's more about immediate engagement and reactions and responses.
To your point, if the U.S. does get involved in some way, frankly, even if the U.S. is engaged in helping to refuel planes, that's still involvement. But if the U.S. gets involved in a deeper way,
This isn't going to be a short term engagement, most likely. You know, there is there isn't an easy scenario where a move is made and that's that. And then the U.S. gets to move on. And then we also haven't discussed that even with Iran weekend, what?
you know, Iran going after potentially going after a series of other targets that are not American targets, American targets could look like, you know, both in terms of military action, in terms of cyber actions, you know, the Iranians hacked the Trump campaign and attempted to attack the Biden campaign in 2024. So
How much Trump is weighing the long term effects here? I think we'll know more in the coming days, but that is a huge question. And it will I think it is becoming clear to a lot of his allies that what is happening right now and the decisions that he has to make.
may well define this second term. And that is not what his deepest base wants. There was a really interesting
quote that he gave to of all places the atlantic um weekend which is a was it on signal or was this it was a publication you there's nobody as fast as you um the uh it's it's a murphy you keep that up um actually maybe murphy but um the uh fair i'll divide it both here but um
A publication that he has trashed repeatedly, but also can't quit. Can't quit, yes. Can't quit. So Brokeback Mountain. One of his themes. Stop. One of his themes. Come on. This is a family show. But he said he was being asked clearly about Tucker Carlson's criticism of him, which has been very, very public, about moving forward against Iran.
Tucker or someone, whether it was Tucker specifically or other people, you know, were saying this cuts this cuts against America first, which is what you what you ran on. Trump said, you know, considering that, you know, I ran on America first and no one used the term till I came along, which is not true. And, you know, underscores that I'm not sure he actually knows the history of that term. But I guess I get to decide. I get to I get to decide what it means. And, you
It was pretty interesting. Basically, he was saying America first. And this is this is what he believes that, you know, America first and his movement, whatever he says, what he feels like and that there does have to have, you know, ideological or intellectual cohesion. And so I'm going to get back to the hackery here just quickly. Let me just play this for you, Murphy. OK, play that. And then I'll explain why Trump is going to get a win. This is Lindsey Graham. Yeah.
Yeah, I want to hear that because you don't often say that. This is Lindsey Graham, who represents really what I think is probably at this point a minority wing of the Republican Party. And he had a much different cut than Tucker and Bannon. Let's listen to that.
Be all in, President Trump, in helping Israel eliminate the nuclear threat. If we need to provide bombs to Israel, provide bombs. If we need to fly planes with Israel, do joint operations. But here's the bigger question. Wouldn't the world be better off if the Ayatollahs went away and replaced by something better? Wouldn't Iran be better off? Well, hell, South Carolina would be better
off with the real conservative. It's so hypothetical. You know, so you get an Iranian civil war. That can go good or that can go bad. Here's why I think Trump may well stumble into a win here. You know, all the security people of the Western Europeans, they all get in a room and, oh, what are we going to do about the Iranians? They're closer to a bomb. Well, they can't make it small enough to put on one of their crappy rockets. You know, we're deterred them. And that's been the debate for 10 years. Well, now they're
They got the uranium in that mountain close to a bomb. So Bibi, impetuous Bibi, for his own reasons we talked about, goes in and turns loose. He is really Air Force. Now, there's no real Iranian air defense. So the Israelis can come over and blow up the TV station, whatever they want, and
The Iranians are in a weak position, but that leadership has always been pragmatic, which is why they're ready to negotiate. Because it's either that or keep getting pounded and get cornered into escalating, which means next thing you know, there's an American B-2 with a bunker buster and they lose the whole game. So I think...
Trump will get a ceasefire because the Iranians are back and ready to negotiate. He'll get negotiations. And the only hope the Iranians have, which is pretty good hope, is that Trump cares about optics, not smart negotiation. And they might be able to buy some time, but enough that both Trump and Bibi can declare victory. And they have slowed down the nuclear program. I mean, I think Mike is is correct.
correct on how Trump is reading the politics of this and what it will end up playing like, certainly in the short term. But, you know, there are always unintended consequences. It just depends. Let's say that Trump authorizes greater use of force. Is your calculation still the same, Mike?
No, then if you escalate, you got to escalate to a win, which means you bomb the Taz. Then you get radioactive leaks and you could have an Iranian. What about Fordo? Right, right. Fordo in particular. That's the bunker buster. Right. I flipped it in my brain. But bottom line is escalation means you own a lot.
The C-spot means optic victory. And you're in a point where either you or the Israelis or even the Europe, anybody can make an airborne house call now. So the Iranian regime is going to negotiate out of some desperation. It gives you room to score victories with less risk. Yeah, no, I'm sure that's his objective. The one element that you omit from your analysis is Bibi himself. Now, Trump can overrule him, but, you know, he just overran Trump.
And and jumped out ahead of them on this. You know, Trump, I think in the aftermath, tried to suggest that this invasion was, you know, part of a clever strategy to force the Iranians to negotiate. I think he may I think he made chicken salad at it. Well, whatever. But the American president, going back to Nixon, always has a pair of quiet tongs with the Israelis, which is munition resupply.
So, you know, there is a leash. That takes some guts, too, for Trump to do it publicly. Yeah. No, I think all the Poles can have a Paul win here or they or they could destroy the nuclear facilities and have a big Iranian civil war to worry about. And you can be an optimist like Lindsey Graham. But those things have shaky. I don't know. I mean, Lindsey Graham was being Lindsey Graham as Lindsey Graham has always been.
I'm sure that if Trump takes another route, he'll find a way back. Yeah, he can slide under a closed door if needed. Okay, let's take a break right here for a word from our sponsor, and we'll be right back.
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Maggie, the president was up in Canada yesterday not to assess the real estate for future acquisition.
But for a G7 meeting... He was scouting for the invasion. Come on, carefully. Dissemble the rhetoric. We know he hates Canada. I noticed the Canadians were keeping a close eye on him. I would. He did leave early. He did. He got the information he needed. Yeah. No, that was hilarious. You know, he got bored because he thinks he ought to be given orders, you know, and they all hate him. Eye rolls. So he left. One of the things that was interesting was that his first gambit up there was...
Not to talk about trade or some of the issues between our country and Canada. He was standing there with the Canadian prime minister. But to talk about his pal Vladimir Putin, who he apparently speaks to on a regular basis these days. Putin speaks to me. He doesn't speak to anybody else. Because he was very insulted when he got thrown out of the G.A. As I would be, as you would be, as anybody would be. He was very insulted.
And, I mean, he was thrown out by Trudeau, who convinced one or two people, along with Obama. He was thrown out. And he's not a happy person about it, I can tell you that. Well, you know, he needs a sucker, and he's got one in Trump, so why bother with the others? Why talk to him? Maggie, he ran out before he had. Zelensky flew to Canada to meet with him.
He left before meeting with Zelensky. He's meeting with he's meeting with I mean, he's speaking to Putin on a regular basis. Like what or how we do interpret all of this. Look, you know, coming home early means that he didn't have to meet with Zelensky and Scheinbaum, too. But he has a decent relationship with Scheinbaum. The or better anyway, he did have a fine meeting with Zelensky.
There was a seven minute by lad in the middle of, I think, St. Peter's during the papal funeral. But but obviously the Oval Office meeting was was.
Unlike I've ever seen, he doesn't like Zelensky. We know he doesn't like Zelensky. He associates Zelensky with his first impeachment, Trump's first impeachment. He, for, you know, reasons that has been the focus of lots of speculation for a long time, has always had an interest in an open channel with Putin. What I think it partly is, is
Um, he is concerned about, uh, let me rephrase that. Sorry. Concern is the wrong word. He is, he, he, look, he publicly said he thought that Putin was tapping him along. Um, and in terms of the negotiations, and I think it's become clear to him that he can't really have that much of an effect on, uh, uh, Ukraine and Russia, uh, at least on the parameters that he's willing to, to deal in. Um,
And so I think in his mind, better to just not engage. Now, he does not view it through the same prism that President Biden did. He is not interested in the post-World War II international order. He has made that very clear. He, you know, isn't particularly interested in, you know,
In terms of NATO's existing structure and he or at least in terms of, you know, the idea that there is a moral imperative to stay involved. And I think that he sees Iran and Israel as a scenario where he can have most impact. Yeah. But so what happens? What what is does he just.
I mean, does the U.S. continue to supply Ukraine? Or does he just sort of let it wither and have... Don't think we know. And I think there is such limited utility in a prediction right now. Not that I try to be in the prediction game anyway and that kind of thing. But look, the weapons that the U.S. was supplying to Ukraine was a leverage against Putin, right? Because otherwise...
what interest does Putin have at all? So I could see there being a, um, uh, a, a, a continued, uh, supplying of assistance of some kind, um,
I also have never believed that Lindsey Graham was moving ahead with that measure against Russia. Yeah, I mean, there's 83 sponsors or something in the Senate. Yeah, if Trump was adamantly opposed to it. I just, just given their relationship. Well, it hasn't moved. That tells you something. That's true. That's true. But I think that Trump, as we have seen, is...
You're saying he, Lindsay, did it to provide leverage for Trump. Yeah, or at least with Trump's tacit okay, possibly. I mean, I just think, I don't, Trump tends to leave multiple pathways open and then decides which one to pick. Murphy, you're never one who's fearful to tread into prediction land. How's this story end? Because his, I mean, it was amazing to hear him defend Trump.
I mean, there is a logic, I guess, to, well, if you can't talk to them if they're not here. But it was kind of amazing. I mean, the reason he got kicked out wasn't because he was using the wrong fork at, you know, the dinner at the G8. It was because he invaded Georgia. Yeah. I mean, look, Putin is not it's not complicated here.
The Russians, since Molotov, have negotiated by fighting over what we have for lunch, will the tanks try to get a mile every day?
You know, so what's going to happen? Trump's going to sell out the Ukraine as much as he can get away with. And if the Russians start winning, which you can argue they're now doing, the Europeans are going to have to step up in a huge way because Trump's not going to. The only thing that will happen, I think that I'm with Maggie. It's very hard to predict exactly what will happen. But Trump is going to.
Trump would rather have a deal with Putin than a free Ukraine. And the Europeans are on the other side of that. And the U.S. Senate, the Republican caucus, is mostly on the other side of that. So the question is how much, if the Ukrainians start to really lose, how much the Republican Senate will buck on Trump. But, you know, Trump will get away with what he can. He's as transactional as Putin is.
Well, I think they share a worldview. One other point that I want to add to that point that Murphy just said about the Senate, I think that public sentiment and it's not just among Republicans. One area where I think that President Biden did not help himself was he did not effectively articulate a case to the public about why it was in the U.S. interest to continue to try to bolster Ukraine.
He just kept saying this is the right thing to do without explaining why the public should want that. And that created a vacuum where over time people couldn't understand. And I think with reason what the long term strategy was for the U.S. here either. And he had a very 20th century view of.
in which people would intuitively understand. They should just know, exactly. And so, and in the post-Iraq war era, that's just not going to be the case. And so...
You did see public support eroding over time for supporting Ukraine. And now you have a situation. It isn't just that the Republican senators are, you know, aligning with Trump, although certainly I think if Trump thought this was a priority, then you would see it something different. But but he doesn't. And this is what he thinks. And he got elected and he was very clear what he thinks with the public. I think that you are seeing a Republican Senate that is going to be far more concerned about a
an enrichment deal with Iran that doesn't go far enough as where the Republican senators believe it should be, then they're going to care about Ukraine. That's all. We'll be right back with Hacks on Tap.
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All right. Time for a pivot, I think, because I'm looking at the clock here and we got a lot of stuff. And particularly, I want to get into this New York mayor's race because I've thought for about a week, speaking of predictions, that Mondami is going to win. Even with the mighty New York Times endorsing against him, which normally means something. Well, they actually. Well, they said don't do anything. They recommended him. That was a hot mess. Oh, OK. Separate section of the paper. You guys. No, no, no. I never met him.
That was basically a way of a paper that called for Andrew Cuomo to resign as governor to endorse him. They were locked in. It was a tough situation for the mayor without having actually saying the words. But but that's what it was. All right. Let's talk about this now. There are a couple of things nationally important.
Mike, if you want to do it in that order. I did want to talk about this immigration stuff. Well, let's do that because I'm on the front lines here. I can report from L.A. what's really going on. A little street journalism. Then we'll do the mayor's race. I mean, this is life in the era of Trump because there were huge stories last week about, you know, Marines in Los Angeles with, you know, their eyes pierced.
peeled on Mike Murphy and others. And there was... I'm an expert at burning Waymos, by the way. Find me on the dark web, I'll tell you all about it. I thought I saw you. It was a punchline here, but go ahead. Yeah, no, no, but... And then there was this
that I think is probably as relevant to this discussion, which is Trump saying, telling a bunch, sort of signaling that he was going to go easier on farmers and on restaurateurs and others who actually rely on immigrants and who were really kicking up a bunch of dust because they
These raids were affecting their businesses, and he suggested very publicly that there would be some relief. And then by Sunday, he was sending out, you know, fire breathing denials of all of that and retrenching. And now we're back to where we were. There's no it's like Stephen Miller got a hold of his of his of his cell phone and recast the whole thing.
Well, that's a Maggie question there because you never quite know who's in his ear. I mean, I think that I do look. I think that we we've seen a lot of ways in which Trump is different than term one, just that he's more willing to.
do things that I think he always wanted to do, that he's obviously quite focused on retribution, that there are parades and stuff. Right. There are stuff. There are. Well, yes, actually, it was something. Yeah, right. There are some things that he wanted to do that he he and he knew what he wanted to do and he was going to do them if he won. But there's a lot of issues on which he just doesn't.
have as firm a grasp as people, some of his supporters or his advisors would like to say he does or an interest. Um, and immigration, he has never been as, as despite the rhetoric, he has actually never, um, been as, as deeply interested in what conducting the largest mass deportation effort in history in the U S history would mean as say, Stephen Miller. So, um,
you know, Brooke Rollins, the ag secretary, got in his ear about farmers. Hotel workers is obviously an issue near and dear to Trump's heart. And then you saw Stephen Miller kind of rebounding. But where the policy actually is, I don't think we know yet because we've heard all of these conflicting things about, A, what they were even doing in the first place at ICE in terms of, you know, workplace raids at farms and so forth.
And B, I'm not clear whether that has actually been a shift or I know there was a report about it, but I don't quite know what it means in practicality. What it does mean is that Trump is clearly responsive to certain levers of pressure still. And what that looks like for the future remains to be seen. There were some business folks I saw on X, formerly known as Twitter, taking something of a victory lap for getting Trump to change his opinion. And
you know, have they taken their posts down? Right. Well, it's just reminds me of like when, when Schumer and Pelosi had that meeting with Trump in term one about DACA and they rushed to the sticks outside of the, the, the microphones outside of the West wing. I love when you talk journalism terms, thank you to try to solidify it. And then he changed off that too. It just doesn't, you know, some of the, there's, there are some familiar notes being hit here, but I don't know what it means in terms of the longterm in terms of what Murphy was saying about LA, uh,
You know, a couple of things. The visuals were absolutely what Trump wanted. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, this was this was they wanted Murphy burning way most. Well, you know, that was the dichotomy, though, because I think it worked for Trump. Disorder always does, because then, well, we better get stormtroopers countries out of control. Out here, it was a big yawn.
People were irate, even the local cops and that infrastructure. They don't want ICE here. They don't want feds bigfooting them. But L.A. County is so big, 10 million people, bigger than most states.
It was one square mile. We get more trouble after a Grammy after party. So, you know, we were all getting calls from the relatives back in Minnesota. Are you guys okay? Oh, we're fine. You know, this was, there was criticism of Bass because on night one, the cops let those kids kind of run wild, you know, and then on night two, she, she cracked down a bit, um, but day late, but it was hardly, uh,
There's just a general feeling in this Latino community because everybody has a second grade teacher or a friend or their doctor who's got a cousin who got scooped off the street or is hiding, worried. I mean, you know, there was a panic. That's what you just said is, I think, a key point, Mike, which is that even more than New York City, where there is a very vibrant immigrant community, a Latino immigrant community, it is...
So immigration is even more so part of the fabric of daily life in L.A. Completely. One third of our population are immigrants. Right. And I think that that sense of fear and terror that Trump wanted to create, you know, in part so that people will leave the country on their own.
Art just so that other people will be afraid is what you're talking about. And two things can be true at once. The White House can be very happy with images that it has. And it can be true that Trump said he was going to do all of this and is going ahead and doing it.
And there is still a large number of people in this country who don't share the view of that policy and are. Oh, look, I'm one of them. And I can tell you. I'm not educating you. Here. I wish you were. No, no, I get it. I get no hopeless. There are that it is. It is. It is creating a real trauma in the community and an actual, you know, both in terms of fear and then for a number of families in terms of actuality.
Yeah. To Maggie's point, Trump is a television producer. He want the images on TV or what's important to him. He's he used L.A. to stage his reality show, regardless of what the reality really was. And now they're signaling that they're going to do the same in Chicago and New York and other. It's also like I mean, I guess I would say that, you know, it's it.
Related to this, my colleagues, Luke Broadwater and Jonathan Swann-Stop, I haven't slept much. Try narrow water. Maybe that's easier to say. They traveled with Trump to the Mideast. I have to listen to this every week. Go ahead.
Let's make sure it goes longer. This particular part, they were they were covering Trump's Mideast trip for The Times, and they did a great story about how, you know, while Trump is sort of cracking down on dissent and and anybody who questions him and his perceived enemies and anyone who's crossed him at home.
You know, he was allegedly the it was Iranians were allegedly the ones who who hacked his campaign. I mean, they've denied this and whatever. But and there was a murder for hire plot that the feds uncovered. And Trump is talking about dealmaking and schmoozing. And, you know, it's I think there is some tightening of the screws at home while he is struggling with global conflicts.
You're saying there were screws loose? Moving on. Okay. Please, please. We're getting letters already. I got two things I want to ask you guys.
One is, what do you think the impact of the parade slash protests were? Do the protests, you know, we had big protests the day after Trump got inaugurated in 2017. And that sort of foreshadowed what we saw in the midterms.
in terms of, you know, an active Democratic base. Do you, do you, do we think that there's meaning to these protests? Yeah, well, everything has meaning. And Trump's in decline. The Republicans, they're going to have a rough midterm. And so that energy is out there. I think the protests, because they're theatrical, are a little overrated, but they're a symptom. They're part of a vast constellation of things. Yeah, no, it's something. It's something.
But I don't think it's a cause. I think it's a byproduct of Trump in a slide between economic stuff, which we always pay too little attention to, but which is the voter driver, and everything else Trump's doing in office, which is polarizing. And, you know, his numbers are going down. Well, I don't know how much his numbers are going down. Everybody keeps saying that. Yeah, they're pretty stable, actually. They're going down slightly, but they're stable. Yeah, the direction is what counts.
counts. Murphy, Murphy has been saying this for three years. So as I say, though, I mean, like I keep reading like Trump is panicking. He knows he's weak. And like, I don't actually think that's what's happening at all. But like it doesn't doesn't mean that the Republicans won't have a difficult midterm. The sign that they know that is the fact that there's this effort to try to change the district lines in Texas. I mean, like that is a clear sign that they know they have a problem. But in terms of the protests as a, you know, as symptoms, I
I mean, I feel compelled to stress this because I feel compelled to say this because Trump didn't differentiate between the peaceful protests and the right to peacefully protest and those that delve into unrest. But protestors
protest is a basic right in this country. And so people are exercising their right because they want to show that they can. And I think that is part of why you saw these protests are genuinely upset about some people, not everybody, but I think some people are genuinely upset about what they're seeing and want to find a way to demonstrate that. I don't think we should say, and I think we all know this because we're all pretty ancient to varying degrees. Well,
us more yeah acts in particular go ahead yes if you if you insist speak up i can't hear you we all know that making declaring in june of the year what this is going to look like next year i have no idea yeah no idea what well partly it's you know part of it has to do with how deep
Trump is willing to go. Correct. But I do. And I think that Mike's point about the economy is extremely well taken. But that, too, is not yet showing up either. The tariffs impact is not yet clear. Inflation is not
quite what people were predicting it might be. Now, maybe it'll get there, but it isn't. And how much people are willing to give him a pass? Well, it's only been four months. You know, it seems like four years. I understand. So I think it's not unreasonable for people to say, well, he hasn't had time to really. But but we know that people aren't happy about the
The same things they weren't happy about when Biden was here. He's coming close to Biden numbers on the economy now, God forbid, because of inventory. Tariffs are delayed impact. Wait till July 4th. Go down to your local friendly Chevy dealer and see what the world looks like on July 15th. Right. Again, I'm not disagreeing with you that like, I mean, this could get.
you know, if he keeps, he kept, he had a series of posts a couple of weeks ago where on truth social, where he kept saying like prices are down, you know, 87% or something like that. And it was actually interesting. It was the first time that I had ever seen people in his replies, which are usually pretty, you know, thank you, president Trump. They were like, not where I live. And so, you know, that is, we'll see where it goes. To be fair.
If, in fact, in six months or a year from now, people feel like costs are down and they're more prosperous, he will benefit from that. But here's the reality of Donald Trump. He is the greatest salesman, maybe the greatest salesman and self-brander in American history. I mean, he's up there with the really, really titanic figures.
But the thing about sales is eventually you have to deliver something. And if he doesn't deliver, I think that he's got Murphy's prediction will be true. And so we'll see about that. What makes it true is it's a Murphy prediction. But yeah, no, I'm not saying I'm not saying Murphy's going wrong. I'm just saying we don't. But here's the thing. I think we're totally missing the boat here. We're talking about it like he's got a reelect to run.
You know, he's on a shot clock. Just talking about 26. Oh, 26. Well, I'm willing to bet money on 26. Well, no, but what he does have is he has, you know, he has a party that has been reshaped around his image primarily or mostly, and there will be a primary in 2028, and one of the people I assume will be in that primary will be... Yes, man. And so...
So that is that is part of why I'm thinking that way. I mean, I bet you a lot of people are listening to this podcast saying, well, what what exactly will our democracy look like in 2026 and 28 as well? And, you know, so part of part of the importance of, I guess, people being out there protesting was expressing a sentiment that.
The shit's important. It is. It is. I remain an optimist about that, but we will see. Who knows? I am as well, in part because I think the courts are playing the role that they're supposed to play here. But, you know, listen, these are challenges that we've not seen before. Now let's hear from our sponsors. ♪
We're ditching the mailbag this week because we have Maggie here. So we've got a little bit more time to explore, uh, these questions. Uh, this decision was made while you were talking, Mike. So me talking rare, this one, but go ahead. Anyway, but here's, here's my question. In the last week, we had the events in Los Angeles, which were stunning. We've never seen Marines land in an American city, uh,
in that way. Uh, you know, the national guard, the first time in 60 years, uh, uh, the president has, uh, taken over the national guard and directed them without, uh, uh,
Yeah, without the governor's request. And we saw what we saw there, as limited, as you point out, Mike, as it was to national television. No, no, it was a TV show for Fox. We've watched this Middle East thing blow up. We've watched the Ukraine thing continue. On the weekend, we saw two American politicians say,
shot, one assassinated in the state of Minnesota. We saw a military parade, something of the likes we've not seen before, although it was not as bad, apparently, as some had feared. But still, we saw these protests. And my question is this. People voted for Joe Biden because they thought the world was out of control and he wasn't in command. At what point, is there a point at which people say, you know what?
This is a little looser than I thought it was going to be. Things are a little more chaotic than I, I mean, that affected him in 2020. Do people become at some point disenchanted with high anxiety? Yes, it started. It just needs time. As you said, four months in, just triple this. See where we are next March. One thing that I think we lose sight of is that
Trump inherited and, you know, you'll fill in this after I after I say it. I know where it'll go, but it's the truth. Trump inherited actually a pretty calm world. Right. In 2017, you know, the the the the Russia interference in the election aside, according to the I.C., you know, there were.
and the Russian incursion into Crimea a few years earlier, but we did not have what is happening now. Now, Trump had argued during the campaign that this all happened because Biden was weak and I will be able to bring things to a close and
you know, that his mere presence was going to be what suddenly brought peace and that everybody would be so afraid. And that was always his argument in term one was the madman theory that people were too afraid of what he might be willing to do. Well, it's worked that well. Well, but it's not it isn't it isn't having the desired effect now. And so do I think that people, if I'm understanding what you're asking me correctly, do I think the people will realize that we're, you know, four months in and
There's lots of fires going around. Like, yes, I do. And I think that if West gets more involved in in a Middle East conflict, you know, knowing that Donald Trump, part of why he won was he openly said in 2016 that he in 2015 that he thought the Iraq war was bad. And that was something that a lot of Republicans had wanted their candidates to say at that point. You know, we'll we'll post.
tea party coming onto the scene, if on his watch there is now real U.S. involvement in a Mideast engagement, I think that is going to have a significant effect. To what end? I don't know. I mean, I come back to what Murphy said before, which is that everybody's personal pocketbook is what they look at most. Yes, and that's absolutely, absolutely the case. But do I think that...
I think the I think that the general public acts feels very tired and weird. And I think what was striking about the protests was that it was the first time we've really seen anything like that in this term, which has not been a term in which a lot of Trump's critics have felt very sanguine about what he's doing. But I I don't know. I don't know where it heads. I wish I had a great answer. Part of the issue here and part of why I'm hesitating on this is
The information ecosystem is so, is so fractured now. You know, people are getting, what information people actually are getting is always an open question. A lot of them are getting it from TikTok. People are getting it from partisan news sites. You know, I think that mass events don't break. The stunning thing about the Signalgate story that you referenced earlier about Mike Waltz
was that one really broke through. Most things don't break through now. So what people are actually experiencing... Yes, you live in your own infrastructure, your own ecosystem. Right. So are people really aware that, you know, Ukraine and Russia is still raging? Probably not in their daily lives. But if the U.S. is suddenly involved in the Mideast, I think they will understand that. Just a word, Mike, about these legislators in Minnesota. You know,
uh we can just sort of become casual about these things and you know
political violence becoming more common. But it is concerning. I mean, and it's not surprising, you know, when we live in an environment in which I disagree with you and therefore you are a dangerous radical who wants to destroy the country. Well, nobody's an opponent. Yeah, everybody's, I'm right, you're evil, so you must be destroyed. It's a cancer in our politics and it is dangerous.
deeply in the system now. And also we're a place where it's easy to get the appliance of death, which is something the population wants, by the way. That's right. So there we are. Yeah, no, it's horrible. It's completely the ugliness of it. The truth is I don't even follow the news the way I used to. Is that true? Yeah. Huh? Yeah.
Why? It's just watching our horrible pop culture infect our politics with the orange idiot who's trying to blow up the Atlantic Alliance and everything else that's counted for 80 years. No, no, I have to make myself pay attention to this as show being one of the reasons. You should follow it, Mike, because I just read this morning that Murphy Industries has gone bankrupt. So...
I took all the money out of the stock scam a year ago, David. Come on, catch up. Then you see boneheads like Mike Lee, the senator from Utah, making light of this and saying that this was all Marxists who didn't get their way, who were...
uh acting out and and so on and it's like take a step back brother and look around and understand and and i say this to everyone you know uh i was uh you know they were you know there's all kinds of chatter around the trump assassination attempts and uh on both sides you know jd van's
You remember Maggie jumping in very early and sort of blaming it on the left. I do. Take a step back. You know, this is a real—you talk about things that threaten democracy. If people have to fear serving their communities— That's right.
That is a real, real risk. And, you know, one thing I hope they'll reevaluate, but I'm not sure they will, is that, you know, the new FBI director has said they're going to deemphasize domestic terrorism investigations. I think this would not be the time for that. Well, can I also just add one thing, which is timely, given that we're talking about this, and I don't want to let this moment pass. President Trump himself was the...
the victim of two assassination attempts, one more significant, that a bullet came very close to his head or struck his ear, actually, excuse me. And what happened in Butler was terrible. And everybody who was there is still very impacted by it. He was asked on the plane back from the G7 overnight by the reporters traveling with him. One of the reporters asked about whether he had called
Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota after the assassinations there. And the president said, and I'm just quoting from the pool report, I don't really call him. I think the governor of Minnesota is so whacked out. I'm not calling him. Why would I call him? I could call him, say, hi, how are you doing? The guy doesn't have a clue. He's a mess. So I could be nice and call him. But why waste time? And there is an obligation of people to
Well, particularly the president of the United States. Are we shocked? I'm not. It's not like we're discovering what Trump is. Trump is what he's been. He's awful. Yeah, but in this moment. Of course, but I'm not surprised. Can you imagine any other president taking that posture? No, but I mean, this is what he is. He is much more...
candid about, he is much more clear about that kind of thing or that America first is whatever he thinks it is and so forth, frankly, than he has been at any other point. But it was a pretty remarkable statement nonetheless. Let's just finish this by saying our thoughts are with the Hortman family, with Senator
Hoffman and his wife were recovering from this attack of people of Minnesota who knew and loved them. Our producer, Hannah McDonald, is someone who knew her and was very moved by and saddened by the loss. Everybody who did seem to like her. And she reflects so many other people who have spoken so glowingly. And it's just such a tragedy. So it's
But Murphy, when can we talk about the New York mayor's race? You keep trying to stop me. Next week. Next week. We're one hour in. That's my fault. But go ahead. Well, no, it's interesting. You've got this kind of charismatic, young change candidate of optics, but, you know, makes de Blasio look like Goldwater and Mondami. And he is shooting up in the polls. Very savvy campaign.
The two regulars, one lander has not caught city controller any fire. So they're stuck with Cuomo, who walks around with a ton of baggage. And my theory was ranked choice would put a ceiling on Mondami. He's not a big Israel supporter. Some of the traditional...
uh kind of things that are part of the coalition to win a new york mayor's race but the polling indicates no there's so much antipathy to cuomo and lack of interest in the others are a bunch of kind of midget candidates running around who don't have a lot of support though i thought lander had a shot i think there's a real chance probably a majority chance
that this guy, Mondami, will win. And that'll be a bit of an earthquake. Maggie, you lived there and you covered New York for years. I mean, one thing that's changed, Mike may be working a little bit off of a dated playbook of what the New York primary electorate looks like. Well, I don't know. I don't think we know yet. I mean, I think we are still discovering what Mike was just describing about, you know, the belief that Mondami would be capped.
It's certainly what Cuomo world believed, you know, but Cuomo world also knew that Cuomo would be capped, right? Right, exactly. And we're choice voting because his unfaves are so... Well, because of this, let me interrupt you for a second. Let's just play Mamdani in a debate with Cuomo and the other candidates on Cuomo. To Mr. Cuomo.
I have never had to resign in disgrace. I have never cut Medicaid. I have never stolen hundreds of millions of dollars from the MTA. I have never hounded the 13 women who credibly accused me of sexual harassment. I have never sued for their gynecological records. And I have never done those things because I am not you, Mr. Cuomo. And furthermore, the name is Mamdani. M-A-M-D-A-N-I. You should learn how to say it because we got to get it right. This was after Cuomo
not only mispronounce his name, but also denigrate his experience, which is admittedly relatively limited. He's 33 years old, two terms in the assembly. Do we have the Cuomo sound? It might be fun to fire that off. Let's listen to what Andrew Cuomo had to say about Mamdani. The disillusioned are not who he's talking to. These are the disillusioned, right? These are the people. It's the...
hard-working middle-class people. He's skyrocketing in the polls. But yeah, well, two different things. First, what I call the disillusioned Democrats who didn't come out and stayed home. And some may have voted for Trump. Those are middle-class working families, middle-aged, middle-class, let's call them that.
And they feel let down by the Democratic Party. So who's winning that contest? You listen to the two of them. And that's the whole campaign. It's not really about policy. It's about style and baggage. And the fresh new guy with the new interesting baggage is clearly clobbering the old boring pedantic guy with the well-aged and polished baggage.
I don't think that's totally true, Mike, that it's not about policy. I think that Mondani in particular have pretty big, deep distinctions on what policing should look like. No, no, no. I agree on all that. Policy is part of it. But isn't the contrast more style?
Do you think Mondami is really being examined on the policy stuff? Cause that's where most of the critters, that's my point. I think he's getting a pass based on style. You and I met, you were just a teenager at the time when you were covering the 2001 mayoral race in New York. Thank you. Yep. What's striking to me when I hear, uh,
Mamdani talk about issues is some of them are really familiar to me about the affordability of housing in New York and about policing and about some of those issues. It sounds very much like the 2001 race. There's always been this, these two New Yorks, you know, the prosperous, highly educated New York. And then, you know, and then the large,
of Hispanics, African-Americans, left liberals, and so on. And he is assembling that. But Cuomo is appealing to another group of New Yorkers, which is outer borough, middle class voters who are concerned about crime, who are concerned about sort of, you know,
issues that motivate more conservative, uh, voters. Uh, and the question is, um,
Does that is that enough for him? I don't think we know. I mean, I think that it's interesting as you were talking about two New Yorks. I was thinking that would be a really interesting message for a candidate. Yeah, right. Yeah, yeah. I have never had less of a sense that a mayor's race is going on. First of all, even even in twenty twenty one right after the pandemic, it was more vibrant and and alive than what is happening right now, save for a very large Mondani rally the other day with AOC.
There has been very little mail that has been going out, at least in our house, by the candidates.
And so I don't have a sense of whether a younger electorate will turn out this time or whether it's going to be the same electorate that we have generally seen. You know, the bet from Cuomo world is that it's the latter. Right. We're going to find out in a couple. Yeah. We won't find out. We'll find out after that. Yeah. Everything is in motion in politics, you know, and if you have momentum going into an election, you know,
That momentum tends to carry through. Now, whether Cuomo has enough of a cushion, I would still say he's slightly the favorite in this race. But because of the the I don't think he's going to be a lot of people's second choice. And, you know, this rank choice thing throws a curveball.
Kick into it. So I don't know what's going to happen. Let's bet a dollar. Let's bet a dollar. I'll take Mon with an N, Dami. You take Cuomo. One buck. I'm not making a bet because I don't know. I'm saying I do not know. Go ahead, Maggie. Can I make one prediction before you? Well, or if you're not going to make it, I guess. But Cuomo has not exactly lit up the world with his campaigning. As reflected in that clip we heard. Yeah. Yep.
You could hear that in the bite. Yeah. Yeah. And so I think that if Cuomo doesn't win, not working for it will be part of why. Oh, I agree. You know, but his vibe, what's more fun punishing that guy? Oh,
or risking Mondami. I think punishing Cuomo is going to be more fun. Well, you know, there's going to be a second round in November. Cuomo is going to be on the ballot again. Adams is going to be on the ballot again. There's a Republican candidate on the ballot again. So the fun continues. If Cuomo wins the
then I don't think November is much of a race. I agree. Yeah, I agree that's probably true. But if he doesn't, then I agree with you. And I think the story of the Democratic Party— Donnie will be on the ballot in November, too, in some form or fashion, I predict, if he doesn't win the nomination. But if he wins the nomination, the plurality might be better.
better for him. I don't know. I just also think that what it means for the Democratic Party going forward is a huge question. But anyway. Yeah, big national spotlight. He would become a big target for Trump. And he will be also someone who Democrats will look at and see what he has. No, no, it's all very, very interesting. Just in time for next year's Congressionals. Have a left-wing, loony left guy running the city of New York. Which if we go a little while longer, we will be at next year's
congressional so we gotta go tell me about it all right if you have a question for the hack save it for next week right we're not we we burned up our time you know the email no send us a voicemail send us a whatever okay maggie thank you back back behind the eyebrow you've got to go figure out the lunatics yeah godspeed there all right my friend will see it we'll see you soon we'll see you next week see you thank you