Deep Dive
Shownotes Transcript
Hey, pull up a chair. It's Hacks on Tap with David Axelrod, Robert Gibbs, and Mike Murphy. You are promising America tonight. You would never abuse power as retribution against anybody. Except for day one. Except for? He's going crazy. Except for day one. Meaning? I want to close the border, and I want to drill, drill, drill. That's not retribution. Oh, no.
Well, Mike Murphy, that was just such a coincidence that Trump should present himself as dictator for a day because that's what Gibbs and I were going to give you for the holidays. We were going to make you a dictator for the day. We thought you'd enjoy it.
Now it's kind of ruined. We would be marching to a new beat around here, let me tell you. And I tell the leftists and the pinkos and the Justice Department henchmen that there's a new Fuhrer in town. Yeah, the old one-day dictator trick. How does that work? Because at the end of one day, it's going so well, I'm now president for life.
Although, you know what, guys? The reason that I wanted to lead off with that clip is it sort of speaks to, you know, there is this sort of buffoonish side to Trump. And he has, you know, everybody lighting their hair on fire. And there are real reasons to fear him as an autocrat and a dictator based on the other things that he said. But this was really interesting because Trump,
Hannity was actually trying desperately, desperately to help him. You wouldn't be a dictator. Not a dictator, like, like, goose-stepping, right? No, no, full deal. I'm in. I'm in. Yeah, it was hilarious. Only for a day. Yeah, he then...
Then he'll voluntarily surrender. Now, there's a great thing you can find on the Internet, a little short Danny DeVito directed early in his career for Showtime called The Selling of Vince D'Angelo, which every political consultant loves. And there's an abscam part because he's now a corrupt senator. And he's sitting there with the security camera watching him and he's stuffing money in his pockets. Does it show? No.
And Joe Santos, the great old character actor playing the FBI guy. So let's be clear. We give you the money. You do us favors. Money for you. He's like, yeah, yeah, yeah. Favors, favors, money. I'm taking a bribe here. It was the same thing. He couldn't jump on the poor Hannity who's sitting there trying to give him a life raft.
But there was actually a method to his madness, which is he said, yes, I'll be a dictator for one day so that I can, you know, shut down the border, you know. And what was the other? He had another. Well, cleanse the Justice Department of lawyers. He wanted to drill.
Oh, yeah. Drill, drill, drill. And he got a huge hand for that. And it does speak to his idea of, you know, what his message is like. He's back to, I'm the strong man. I can get this done. Biden weak, me strong. And he actually – Right. And I'm going to root out the vermin and the enemies of the state and the fellow travelers and the kulaks and everybody else. You know, there's always an enemies list.
It's classic. The challenge is this always you begin to pull the string a little bit, right? As you said, David, he may have given this like, oh, I couched it in this idea that I'm going to be a dictator for your causes for a day. But in reality, you pull that string and it quickly becomes the campaign of retribution.
Right. The policy becomes that because that's what he. Well, right. That's what he says. Eruptions. That's what he says. That's what Hannity was trying to clean up. And I was struck last week, too. I don't think I've ever seen this before, at least this early, certainly in a campaign. The campaign, the two senior people in the Trump campaign had to put out a statement
that basically said, if you read about any policy that we're thinking of or any person that we're putting into the government to institute that policy, all of which have been batshit crazy,
None of that is true unless it comes from us. Yeah, we handle the bad shit crazy around here. Right. And it's sort of like, hey, we know the guy's talking about retribution. So there's a group over here building the retribution plans, but pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. No, and in fact, you know, Kash Patel, after Trump said the dictator thing and said, was, you know, talking about retribution and all of that stuff. And
Saturday night in New York at some event, a Republican event there, Trump
Cash Patel is in the audience and Trump gave him a big attaboy and said, you know, essentially stand by cash. So, you know, it's going to be cash and carry once once the election's over. But yeah, thanks. But you're all week. Dip your server. But this, too, like I'm trying to focus on the fact that despite all of this crap,
There's stuff going on here that people should take seriously about what he's doing. Trump knows his audience and he's speaking to his audience. And yes, he gets off on these retribution jags that are cathartic for him and they get
and perhaps scary to others. But that line, I was listening to the second part of it thinking, I get what he's doing.
doing that. What you're talking about, Robert, though, speaks to another piece here, which is the guy for the first time since we've known him as a politician actually has like operatives who know what they're doing. To the extent he'll listen to them in the clutch. But yeah, yeah. The minute things start going bad for him because he's been totally trotting along with no problems, then you find out. Yeah. No, he's a weak link in this sort of we're going to be rational and sane
strategy, but they also, and this leads into the, we're less than five weeks now from the Iowa caucuses, leads into this discussion. Like, they have an operation there. They're doing the things that candidates would do. He didn't have an operation in 2016. And we've talked about this before. They were working the state parties.
Well, they control all the state parties. Right, exactly. Yeah, I mean, so they've got an inside game that they didn't have before. So Murphy, Iowa, brother, I remember all... Stayed in the Midwest. Famous for corn, hogs, as you well know. Yes. The Iowa poll came out. I remember our discussions about it too early. The register poll. Yeah, the Iowa poll in the register and Seltzer's sort of gold standard poll. Yeah.
I remember our discussions about it's early, it's early, it's early. Let's see what it's like, you know, weeks before in the weeks before, because these all things break late there. It's according to her breaking to Trump.
He gained eight points from October. Haley was even from October. DeSantis picked up three. Trump picked up a lot of the pieces of Pence and Scott there. He's got the largest lead ever in the Iowa poll. So spin me, brother. What do you say now? He's unstoppable. You're always right.
No, I like this poll. All right, let's quit. I'm done for now. Merry Christmas. No, no, no. You're a poloholic. Happy holidays, everyone. Let me give you the strategic view here.
I pull myself, drag myself from my COVID deathbed to make this show. Okay. So here, here's the real score. If you had perished, I wouldn't have brought this up. I just, you would have waited a week and then done a, let me play old tape. Anyway, let me, let me go through Iowa. I like this poll. Cause I, the question for me is who's second. Can Nikki finish off this and isn't get the momentum to hit the New Hampshire upset. That's her only path. And,
You know, Governor Sununu in New Hampshire is endorsing her tonight in Manchester, and she's definitely doing well there. But if DeSantis beats her, that'll slow down the magic formula quite a bit. Now, early on, I thought there was a chance Trump could be upset in Iowa. Wrong. This poll indicates he'll come in first in Iowa. But now, jack up those expectations, Ann. You know, what happens if—you're an old newshound, and Gibbs, you know that world—
Somebody's got to be the other story. Then Trump is invincible. So if Trump doesn't win by this huge margin, if he wins by a normally good margin, and if Nikki Haley beats DeSantis, the once invincible one in Iowa, what's the story out of Iowa? What's the media fixation for 10 days leading up to fertile New Hampshire? Trump frontrunner, but strong challenger emerges? It does depend on the margin, because right now he is at 15%.
51 in this poll and DeSantis is at 19 and she's at 16. So if she and DeSantis are hovering around 20 and he's over 50,
then there is no other story. I mean, there's probably a story of she wins that DeSantis is going out. What if he's under 50? What if he's under 45, 42? I don't think that totally matters, to be honest with you. I think if he's over 42, you're living in a world, first of all, with very few candidates. I think the challenge that all the other candidates have, and you see this in who gained in this poll, meaning Trump gained the most, is because
a lot of people's second choice isn't somebody else other than Trump. And so the challenge is, I don't, again, I think Trump's honestly going to come down. And if you look at the history of this, Bush was up, I think, 27, won by 11. Dole was up by like 28, won by three. But I think very different dynamics in a race in which I,
Look, I think the momentum story isn't going to be for anybody else coming out of Iowa but Trump.
I think if Nikki Haley finishes second by a point or two or DeSantis wins by three, I think they're still going to look like people that are a lap down in the Indy 500. I think it's going to be Trump and somebody. And the only interesting somebody is Nikki. And if she beats DeSantis, it's enough of a story. But we'll find out. It's almost upon us. But it does matter. Like the ordering does matter because...
I mean, I think DeSantis, if he finishes second, will be a zombie candidate having mortgaged himself to win. He'll be taking useless space. You also need Christie to get out of New Hampshire. But he will stay.
If he finishes second, he's not going to drop out. I don't know. I hear it's bad inside, but we'll find out, you know, we're, we're finally getting to voting. But on the Trump thing though, Gibbs, one of the interesting findings in this poll is that, uh, first time voters and there were a fair number of them. Trump was getting 63% of those, which is always the issue with him. He does bring a new people out. The other thing is that, you know, three quarters of the voters believe that, uh,
that he can beat Biden. And, you know, so that would that was at the beginning of the story. Well, he can't beat Biden. That was the huge thing. That's what and that's what DeSantis and all these others, but primarily DeSantis felt like, OK, the week after the 2022 election, they're going to be all these polls and all these people hand wringing that, yes, Donald Trump gives a great rally, but he can't win. And that has dissipated.
almost, if not completely dissipated. And that's what the challenge is for all these others is why do you want the guy who can sound like Trump but isn't Trump if the guy who is Trump can win? Well, here's the problem. When all this stuff was cooked up a year to 17 months ago by candidates thinking, I'll take on Trump for the nomination, the vibe inside the party was Trump can lose.
But the Democrats and particularly the Biden folks have done a magnificent job of running a political year. So even Donald Trump looks like a winner, which has taken a lot of the energy out. So thank you, Democrats, for Donald Trump again. If somebody stronger was running right now in a surge or Biden had fixed himself, that energy would be there again. And it would be it would be doing a lot for the non-Trump candidates. But it's totally dissipated. So now people think in the Republican Party.
they've always thought the Trump supporters always thought, ah, just, you know, he'll debate or call their names when or excuse me, Biden. Now it's it's just seeped in everywhere. So the old vote for Trump elect Biden thing, that formula is nowhere what it used to be. But you can't blame that all on Democrats. I mean, you fork and you eat with a fork and knife. Republicans have gotten overrun.
Well, yeah, well, no help from the Biden political suicide for a year. Thank you, Joe. Everybody who's listening to this should just know that Axelrod and I were smiling halfway through Murphy's compliment because we knew the backhand was coming. Yeah, well, like you guys have both been in the front window going, go, Joe, go, campaign of perfection. You know, you know, it has been a huge, huge assist.
We're going to get there. We're going to get there. But I just want to ask about endorsements because...
Kim Reynolds, who's very popular among Republicans in Iowa, endorsed DeSantis between the last poll and this poll. So far, it's produced a big three points for him here. And what the question is, what are these endorsements mean? What is Sununu's endorsement? I don't think they mean a lot in the presidential. It's not a county commissioner race. But I think Sununu is bigger in New Hampshire than Kim is in Iowa. We'll find out.
Not enough if she's a week third in Iowa, though. So big Sununu's for her, huh? Chris Sununu, yeah. But I want to go back just for a second because I'm not, again, I'm not totally convinced that if DeSantis is ahead by three on caucus night over Haley,
that somehow I look, I'd be somewhat surprised if he dropped out after Iowa. I just don't, you know, that's a lot of admitting that it's a lot of admitting that you screwed up in a way that I don't think I've seen his capacity thus far. I mean, his literally his wife goes on TV and says, Hey, you don't have to live in Iowa. Grandmothers and moms come from,
from all over the world. You can join the caucus. And he never said, oh, she was wrong. Insert the Murphy Chicago joke. Right, exactly. Right, yeah. What is it, Cook County? A mimeograph machine in the basement and the voter rolls? He's still recovering from COVID, so I have to help him along. Yeah, I needed a nudge.
DeSantis' whole thing was like, oh no, what she was trying to do was say, come knock doors and be a volunteer, which of course is not what she was saying to do. But again, I think, look, for me, Haley, I think Haley's the only one, and Murphy, you know New Hampshire better than anyone, that I think for her, the story's going to be later if it's, if she finishes third and then finishes second. The real thing will be the final score in New Hampshire.
right, is does it look in a momentum play like the gap has gotten appreciably smaller? In other words, not just that she's rising, but that Trump is falling. Oh, totally. Look, I think she has a really simple, really hard to execute path, and she's the only one with a path. She needs one to
to do well in Iowa, which means beat DeSantis, which I still think she can do. The register is a great poll. There's no such thing as a gold standard polling in a caucus. Well, I mean, three points is a margin of error. Right. Three points is a sneeze and a good debate joke. So then she has to beat Trump. None of this. You can argue only three point win. No, you got to beat Trump and cut his head off.
This is dinosaur fighting here in New Hampshire. And then you got to go beat them in South Carolina. Bing, bang, boom. That's how you do it. Hard, but not impossible. We should point out that there probably will be a one-on-one debate between DeSantis and Haley in Iowa between now and the caucuses, CNN, CNN.
has announced such a debate, Fox may get into the mix and they may, wherever it ends up, there will be one opportunity for her. And, you know, she's Muhammad Ali compared to DeSantis' kind of George Chiavallo, for all you old
boxing uh aficionados but anyway she's good and so that may may help her anyway gibbs what were you gonna say she's good but let's just i mean i thought her last debate performance suffered greatly it wasn't it wasn't great it wasn't her best luckily you had to have a short wave radio to see it but yeah right and i wonder quite frankly the debate that we're envisioning between the two of them if if it really does much to move people
Because unless she's got an extraordinarily strong point of view about DeSantis that we really haven't heard yet...
Well, she doesn't have a strong point of view about anything. That's the flaw of her candidacy. I think it's going to be two people standing at a podium saying, you said this, and the other person is going to say, you're lying about me. Yeah, no, I agree. You're lying about me, and it'll just be like the teacher from Charlie Brown. I think it will be well watched in Iowa. We'll see. So the Wall Street Journal had a poll, and we'll just talk about it on the other end. Not a great poll for the president. Trump
For the first time, four points ahead in the poll. The internals were not good. Haley was up 17 on Biden. And not surprisingly, she made something of it when she was campaigning in Iowa. Let's listen to that. She took a little slap at Trump, too, which is, you know, an evolution for her. Don't defeat Democrat chaos with Republican chaos. We have to get this right. And not only that, you look at these general election polls.
The caucus is important. These primaries are important. But what's our end game? You look at these general election polls. Wall Street Journal, he told you about before. On any given day, Trump and Biden were even. On a good day, he's up by two. He might be up by four. It's all margin of error. In every one of those polls, I was up by 10 to 13. Now I'm up by 17 points.
Yeah, let me just start with a quick note to Team Haley. You're running for president. Get a malt box so the media can get decent audio of your candidate trying to hit a home run, for Christ's sake. Unbelievable. That's why they call him Mike Murphy. Well, you can't hear him. You can't vote for him. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. But you were right. I left off the beginning where she— Again, I think she's more going for the capillary than the jugular with Trump. She said—
you know, she talked about it may not be his fault, but chaos follows him everywhere. No, it's a carom shot. The hell it's not his fault. I mean, there's a reason chaos follows him. That's what they love. This is what she doesn't understand. This is what none of these guys understand is like, I guess her new slogan is we beat the margin of error. Now, I don't know if that's a, I mean, that just makes me want to drive all the way to Iowa and
participate. I agree. Although I'll tell you, back in 95, we got a 10 point surge out of Alexander beats Clinton. Follow your ABCs in Iowa. But normally I'm with you. Give a polling lecture. That'll stampede them. But she's trying to make the winnability argument.
Right. But that race was dull, right? That was dull, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. So like... Well, in a non-crazy electorate, you know, compared to now. If this was a race in which she and six other people, none of whom were dominating, none of whom...
cut the figure that Trump did inside of that party, that might be an argument that, like, it did for Alexander. But, like, they don't... Again, they still like getting the fact that, like, there has to be some emotion to this. There has to be... None of them is willing to run through the wall for her because of something she's done or said. Honestly, I don't know where her votes come from in Iowa other than these suburban areas around Des Moines. Yeah. No, no. Look, it's... Her problem is...
It's almost not, though I think it's been subpar in some ways. It's not as much her message as there's a, yeah, yeah, Trump again can hardly wait versus time to move on. And the time to move on sector of the primary has shrunk over the year. Right. That's it. One, the electability thing has gone away. Thank you, Biden. And-
other the Trump failures, it turns out his core base is fine with them. So she's just fishing in a narrower pond. She's done a good job as the best political athlete of eclipsing all the other move beyond Trump. But her market she's going after, particularly in Iowa, has shrunk. It hasn't shrunk so much in New Hampshire, but she can't get wiped out in Iowa and get the rocket fuel she needs to take advantage of what's
potentially there for her in New Hampshire. You think she has to beat him in New Hampshire to be viable post? Yeah, if you want to be nominee, you know, you want to be the new lion, the old lion's got to be limping away half dead with blood all over it. So yeah, if she doesn't beat Trump, he's Superman. The expectations will flip the other way. You know, her best shot, she failed. I mean, you've said that before. It's just, it's interesting to hear it again. I mean, you know, again, this was
Otherwise, you're just a parlor game. Oh, she had a couple of weeks where she was kind of in second and then she died. Yep. Gotcha. He's just gathering more tape for reflections after the crow sandwich issue, which is already under production. Let's take a short break and hear from our sponsors. The Wall Street Journal poll was.
you know, very, very dark in terms from a Biden standpoint, you know, job approval down, ratings generally down. Most of the comparatives with Trump, not good. And the one that I think was most alarming from my standpoint was when they asked if Biden's policies and Trump's policies when they were president were helpful to people. Did people think they were helpful?
in their lives. Only 23% of voters say Biden's policies have helped them personally, while 53% said they've been hurt by the president's agenda. By contrast, about half of voters say Trump's policies when he was president helped them personally more than 37%, more than the 37% who said they were hurt. You know, what I worry about you guys from a Biden standpoint is these are the kind of things you get when people are starting to rationalize their votes.
Oh, look, they're ready to fire Biden. You know, that's a problem. And they just put out another photo op with the Bidenomic sign next to him. You know, I don't I just it is unbelievable to me. You see the Michigan data. I think CNN had or somebody to CNN polls. One in Georgia had Trump up by five. One in Michigan had Trump up by 10. A state that the governor, Democratic governor, won by 10 points just last week.
I don't think, honest, based on the private polling that I've heard about, I don't think it's quite that bad. No, I don't think it's that high either, but it's bad. But it's bad. I mean, and this wasn't one of the closest...
of the closed states last time. Let me get ready for whatever happens in Iowa with a preemptive credit claiming of my own here. I tried to explain to you guys, I tried with great patience about how bouncing around on a UAW picket line in Michigan was not a big political home run for Biden because the UAW is a lot more polarizing there than it used to be because most of the lower tier suppliers are non-union and they all had to eat air during the strike. So
you know, the Biden is running a great 1968 presidential campaign in Michigan, but it's just another another. They their compass is wrong on this stuff and how to talk about the economy and move voters. All right, Gibbs, all yours. No. And Murphy, this would be something I want you to weigh in on, too. I was talking to some friends in Michigan about this just yesterday as my stomach hurt reading through that Michigan poll. You know,
As they mentioned to me, what's probably most disconcerting is there is literally zero Republican apparatus inside of the state of Michigan right now. It's 20 gorillas playing with a tire. That isn't literally either headed to jail or trying to find seven cents to do voter outreach. So the worrisome thing here is, and we can get into this at some point, too. I mean, I think the Biden people really have to start playing campaign.
in a far more concerted way. They just hired a state director in Michigan, but I don't know the name. I was told they recently hired somebody. But it's time to take
the one-day dictator stuff and make it part of everything. And they're starting to do that, right? It is time to start drawing this choice because I think a lot of us think through these polls we see, whether it's Michigan or the Wall Street Journal, and you think to yourself, okay, people just haven't made the turn yet to making the choice. These are still the Biden is bad, to Murphy's point, let's fire Biden polls, that's why
Haley's up 17 and Trump's up this and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And if that's your view that they haven't made the choice yet, great. It's time to accelerate the clock and get people to make that choice. Force them to think that they're way behind. And it's not surprising because most of the people who are running the campaign are in the White House and not at the campaign. And I think those divided attentions happen.
have those divided attentions have hurt them. One of the things that I think that we need to be mindful of is, you know, one of the most important elements or decisions in this campaign may come next week or in the coming weeks when the Supreme Court decides whether they're going to expedite this case, you know, this claim of Trump's that he had, you know, ultimate immunity and therefore can't be tried in Washington in March.
You know, if he succeeds in—actually, if he wins that case or if he succeeds in delaying his trial past November, that—
Because that is a wild card. We don't know what it's going to do, but if he is convicted, that's a wild card no one really understands. To be fair, it's probably not a wild card. In a bunch of these polls, huge numbers of people say conviction is way different than indictment or allegation. I know, but this guy has a way of slipping the noose, you know, and...
And so we'll see. I mean, I want to see it in real time. But Murphy, go ahead. No, no. I'm for all the stuff Gibbs was saying. And you've said it before, David, about comparative. Go make it about Trump, blah, blah, blah. But still, that worries me. I do it. But if I were for Biden, I mean, working for him, here's what would have me awake all night. They already hate Trump.
And they still want to fire us. So we can go try to make them hate Trump even more. But if the thorn in the paw of the big mean bear is us, if we can't fix that or at least lower that pain level a lot, we can send Trump up to the stratosphere and negatives. But it's still about us in the end. We're the incumbent seeking to get rehired. That's where the whole Bidenomics disaster, et cetera, et cetera, is fatal to him.
And, you know, it's almost easier to go do the Trump sucks campaign. They got to find a way. Now, the economy, there's some good numbers out, not that any voter believes them, but it shows if things start moving a little instead of telling everybody they're wrong about the economy, which was plan A they had, there might be room to change.
to do it. And God, bring in the surrogates, the cabinet. You know, the one-man Biden show is over. It doesn't work. They've got the hook. I want to talk about that in a second. But, you know, campaigns, people, I'm on the road and people are asking all the time, well, what issues are going to be important? And issues are important. They motivate base, you know, constituencies. They
But narratives win elections. Narratives. What is the story that Biden—it can't be a story about his successes and kind of turning it into a referendum on himself. There has to be a narrative, and it can't just be about taking Trump down. And it can't ignore the fact that people have concerns. The overriding thing—and I've said it to you guys before, and I know you know it—it isn't any particular—
particular issue. It isn't inflation, although that's really important. It all supports a narrative of things are out of control and he's not in command, which is what the Republicans are selling. And he needs to defeat that narrative. And part of it is acknowledging certain things, including the fact that, yeah, there are concerns about his age. And the last thing I'll say on this, I don't think I've said this before, but, you know, our buddy Saul Shore did a race for Ed Markey in
Massachusetts in 2020, you know, the primary race with Kennedy ran an ad. Good come from behind win for an AOC may have narrated. I think she narrated the ad, but the words are what were important. She said, it's not the age of a man of the man that concerns me. It's the age of his ideas.
And I think that Biden has to A, acknowledge these concerns. Neither he nor Trump are going to be around for, you know, they've both lived most of their lives. But the question is, what are they, what will they do to make the future better for? Well, who wins and who loses in the future?
It's your outcome to America. That's part of it. But there needs to be a larger narrative here that is reality based and and authentic. Yes. And just and I want to pick up on that, because when I say let's get under the campaign, draw the contrast.
It can't just be opening the Washington Post and saying, we said this and it's on a right. We got to react to a right because Trump's bad. Not a tactical this and Trump's this and Trump, because if all that does is just add up a bunch of things, as Murphy said, that already people don't like him.
The forcing choice has to be where where are you taking us over the course of the next four years? What is it that we're going to get in this transaction of how we vote? Yes. And I think unless or until they force unless or until the Biden campaign through Biden forces this. Right. And we have to hear this from the candidate.
Then I think it's all just going to be, and it drives me crazy. Like, again, we just take a clip. We just take a, you know, I guess what, what do you call those? Whatever he puts out on truth social.
those little tweets on true social and say, this is bad. We don't like this. This is bad. Look, he opened the door with the affordable care act stuff last week. He opened the door. And I don't know why, you know, go do a speech on that. Go do a speech that says, you know what? For eight years, you've been talking about repeal and replace for eight years. You've been working on replace. Tell us what it is.
Tell us what it is because, you know, here's what you're doing away with. Tell us what it is. Focus it. There's a, just quickly, there's an old,
saw in advertising. Don't talk about the drill. Talk about the hole it makes. It's got to be about do Trump and his cronies win, which is all about them, or does Joe Biden win, which is all about us and the future outcome? Robert, you say the president should do these things and the president should do some of these things, but they also have to acknowledge the reality that he can't be, as Mike said earlier, the ball carrier in the way that
our candidate was or other candidates have been. He can't do it. Listen to this. Listen to this. I mean, he got himself into hot water last week with the comments he made at a fundraiser. I think we have the clip that reporters asked him after the fundraiser about why he was running for president because he said in the fundraiser, it's because of Trump. And then listen to what he said to the press the next day. I think the president is Trump.
I expect so, but look, he is running and I have to run. No, not now.
Yeah, so he basically, the sound wasn't great, but she said, would you be running if Trump wasn't running? He said, I expect so, but he is running, and so I have to run. So then the next, and the implication is, and this is what he was trying to say to the people at the fundraiser, this is a, you know, I'm the ancient warrior, and I have to strap my armor on one more time because democracy is at stake, and that's why I'm running, and you all ought to be engaged in that. But then the next day, the press asks him this question.
It's sort of head turning because he undercuts his own message. And so, you know, when you talk about him, the message he should carry out there, there's limits to what he can do. And what they really need to do is, as Mike says,
They have to have a battalion of surrogates out there, not the cabinet, because the cabinet, they can be out there, but they're limited. But all these presidential aspirants are eager to get out there. But they have to have a unified message. There has to be a, you know, they all have to be singing off a song sheet. And I don't know that there's a song sheet. No, there isn't. The song sheet is, don't believe the statistics, you owe me re-election. Yeah.
Right. Well, I'm for changing the music. That's a very harmonious song. Let's get a new songwriter. Sounds better than Tuba. But I still think John Philip Sousa. I think I still think he's got to go out there and give the speech. I think now, to your point, yes, I would be and in fairness to even Biden.
um, nothing drives the staff crazier than walking away from the podium, being literally halfway out the door and turning around to answer one more question. So look, I do think you could put him into an atmosphere, into a place where he can deliver this speech and then people can go pick up on it. I really do. I think,
Look, the truth is that's the minimum we'd be asking. It still seems like a lift for him, but they got to try. He can read a speech. And by the way, what I'd do with the cabinet is I'd steal an old UK trick that always works. I would announce an economic sub-cabinet to tackle the turnaround. And I'd put all my little stars. I'd boo the judge, Raimundo.
He is feeling better. And I'd make it an action team movie, and he's in the middle, and they're all fanning out. And the campaign is, oh, he looks old. He is old. Youngblood all around him. Ladies are focused on the economy. The big plan, we've suffered the pain. We've done the work. Now we've got to manage the turn for the middle class, not for Trump's.
Paola buddies. But mechanics aside, Axe, I totally agree. I mean, I think there has to be a narrative thing. There has to be something of why this is important. Why is it at stake? And tell us, you know, and put some meat on the bones of it's about democracy. It's not one speech and then walk away from the podium and go back to sort of tactical hits about a million different things. It's like...
This is what this campaign's about, and this is what I'm going to talk about from now until... No, it's not a speech, it's a movie. Yeah, exactly. It's got a beginning, middle, and the end, big narrative, all the way to the convention. And it has to show up every day. Let's stop for a minute and listen to a word from one of our fine sponsors. ♪
Two things I want to cover here that are... Have we ended the Biden therapy session here? Well, we'll have plenty of those. Oh, I believe it. But this has to do with the Hunter Biden indictment and the impeachment inquiry that clearly the House...
is about to begin. I mean, I'm of the mind that the Hunter Biden thing may be damaging to Biden in the sense that he's a father and it is a terribly draining ordeal for your son to be in the crosshairs like that. I don't believe I know they're trying to muddy the waters, but the House has done a terrible job of trying to in any way implicate Biden in any of this.
So I think the real damage to Biden, if there is damage, is more on the emotional toll it takes and less...
on the political side. But I'm wondering what you guys think about that. And then I want to talk about the impeachment thing. I think you're essentially right. And the last thing Biden needs is more distractions because he's still having trouble with A plus B plus C. I think, you know, the Republican House conference, you can see the difference emerging between them and the Senate. They think every election is a Republican primary. And for three quarters of them, that's true.
So with their narrow scope, they think a big political home run, I'll get three Fox hits out of this. But in the larger branding question, it's a disaster. The problem is as bad as they do, they're not as big of a thing in the voter equation as the incumbent president. Keep them or fire them. Right. Well, it will affect, you know, the 18 who are in Biden districts.
are probably not real enthused about all of this because, you know, well, listen to this. Listen to this exchange. This was after the indictment. You know, the House subpoenaed Biden to appear this week. He said he'd do it in public. Hunter Biden. They said, no, it has to be in private. And Chairman Comer had this exchange with Jake Tapper.
We think that this is just the tip of the iceberg. We think there are many more crimes. And my concern is that Weiss may have indicted Hunter Biden to protect him from having to be deposed in the House Oversight Committee on Wednesday. He indicted him to protect him. Yes, the classic rubric. He indicted him to protect him.
I got it. Well, look, this whole thing's been about a cover-up. You know, you've got two serious concerns. That's why he indicted him to protect him, to cover it up? Look, you indict him on the least little thing, the gun charge and not paying taxes. He's facing like 17 additional years in prison.
Yeah, but look what he's done. Anybody else. Well, they got it figured out. Nice to hear that Mensa's taping their meetings now. But I mean, but what the Speaker of the House went off to...
visit with Trump, came back and announced that he's going to launch an impeachment inquiry. I think Trump is demanding it. I think his supporters in the House are demanding it. Maybe Johnson stops it there and there's never actually a vote to move forward on impeachment. But it is this sort of it is, as you point out, Mike,
You know, it's a crazy deal that they're trying to navigate there. And I think it will have impact, if not on the presidential race, although it adds to the coloration of it. It will have an impact on these on who wins the House next year if they move forward on this stuff. And don't I wouldn't be surprised, too, if this does help a bit rally some of the Democratic base. This notion of I mean, listening to the I don't even want to I guess I have to still call it logic.
as you know, the tortured logic of, of the people running this, there may be all these other crimes. We don't know what those other crimes are, but we're going to, we're going to, we're going to wind up in impeachment inquiry to figure out the crimes. I mean, is, is the, I mean, it's all theater theater to feed direct response and TV hits and a narrow segment of the votes. Crimes to be disclosed later to TBD is not very, uh, so, uh,
The other thing on the House, Zelensky is here. They're obviously in a desperate situation. We're at an inflection point. And the Senate and House, Lankford, who's a reasonable guy in the Senate, and then the House with maybe less reasonable people, are holding out for tougher immigration changes.
I've said this before. It seems to me Biden needs to cut a deal on this. Yeah, he ought to surrender, take the win, take the issue away and save Ukraine. And I mean, I don't know why they're being stubborn here. And also, by the way, do something about the border. Yeah, that's what I mean. Right, which is a thorn in the paw again. So let the Republicans own the border. Good luck and get his Ukraine money.
It's not a hard one, I think. I don't know. There's some stubbornness here, which is a through line of the Biden presidency. He has said that he's willing to negotiate and that he's he's open. I think finding something that will not in that will be that will irritate his base, but not rupture it is probably what he's looking for. But I think I would be venturesome on that point, too.
Because, like I'm sitting here in the city of Chicago, 25 buses a week coming in here. People are pissed. People are pissed. They all get to vote three times, dude. And to that point about whether you're going to cut a deal that might not make your base all that excited. I mean, if you rip a Band-Aid off slowly, it hurts a whole lot more than if you just rip it off. Right. I would do a preemptive thing and come back to them with 80% of what they want and then dare them to act.
I'm surprised that they've waited this long just to cut the deal on this. And I don't know whether this I mean, you know, look, this is this is what happens when you've got Biden is doing this. But you've also got Congress that's that is making some of these deals. And they're the ones that are going to have to vote on it in the most immediate form. But I'm surprised they haven't cut the deal yet. I'm surprised they got through the weekend without them doing this. I think now that you've brought Zelensky to the U.S.,
to come away with no Ukrainian aid. To your point, David, makes the president look not strong, makes the president look weak in a way
Even if they aren't really excited about sending a bunch of money to Ukraine, do you really want to show up as this week? Narrative-wise, Biden could really play this well. It's the old trick of retreat till the enemy's out of gas and counterattack. Give it to them. Fund Zelensky. Get Zelensky the planes, the F-16s. They're training pilots now. The Europeans are going to pony up the planes. Biden's a year late on this. And then they will have a turn in the spring.
uh later in the spring when they start in the summer when they can operationalize the planes then you've got the biden comeback in ukraine for zelensky you'd ask earlier murphy if we were done with the uh the biden therapy session i want to add one more thing um uh and this comes from our friend uh and uh he's been on the show we should probably get him back on again doug sosnick
has these, you know, kind of big memos that he puts out. Yeah, he puts out kind of summary reports. I'm going to read what Doug puts in. He's got a new memo out today, and I think it's important. History shows that Biden is entering a critical period for a president running for re-election. The first and second quarters of the fourth year in office are the most important and demonstrating moments
to the public that the country is headed in the right direction. He goes on to talk about the fact that in the latest Wall Street Journal poll, while overwhelmingly negative about Biden's current standing, there was a 6% increase in voters who thought the country was headed in the right direction compared to the previous poll. So, you know, I think we have talked about the fact that, yes, if the election were held today, the polls would show that I think Joe Biden would lose that election.
Because the election isn't today, there are some important things that will happen, and it's got to happen fast. I admit, you've got a couple of quarters to get people, to your point, Murphy, to thinking differently about this economy, to throwing in what that choice is, and to thinking through how to demonstrate strength.
Totally. I'd be thinking about how to orchestrate the comeback. So August and September is a hell of a lot different than now. What steps do we have to do along the way? Yeah. Whatever you do, the narrative has to. I mean, again, everybody's tiptoeing around the fundamental issue. You have to address people's concerns. This election is boiling down to a contest of risk assessment.
And, you know, the risk on the side of Biden has to do with age and strength. And you sort of have to redefine how people are looking at this election from a message standpoint. So...
This being the last podcast of the year before we enter the election year, I don't know how you want to approach this. I don't want to go through a whole list of predictions because it just raises the risk of us being wrong about everything. Is there one particular surprising prediction?
that you guys would make for 2024? Oh, I haven't even thought about it other than Nikki's going to give Trump a lot more of a run in New Hampshire and conventional wisdom things. But I've said that for a year. Not Nikki, somebody. It turns out it's her. What do I think? I think... I shouldn't have put you on the spot like this. What about Trump's VP? Oh, God. It'll be like, you know, Star Search at the gates of hell. Carrie Lake...
There's probably some Russian autocrat putting a bid in. But do you think that the campaign heads will control that? No. See, I don't buy this thing about the smart Trump campaign. I mean, Lasavita is a good operative. He's got people. But they've had an easy job so far. They've sat ahead in the polls and just kind of farted their way along.
They've never really been challenged, never really had a crisis, which is where Trump will not listen to anybody but Trump. So, you know, if they get into a tight New Hampshire thing, then we'll see if he listens to these guys. They've had the easiest job in the world, which is like organizing sales for Philip Morris when you have a 50% market share and advertising is illegal.
You know, you just put in the orders and go home at four. I'm waiting to see it, where they actually manage Trump. Axe, who's your pick for VP? So you threw the question out. Well, no, I'm asking the questions. I don't have to. He likes to critique the predictions more than make them. I mean, if I were advising him, I would probably go Haley. That would be the conventional answer.
And smart thing to do. But I keep thinking that Tim Scott may turn up on this ticket and that he may endorse Trump in South Carolina. In Trump's limited Queens 1970 view of the world, it's like, hey, I nominate the black guy and I get all the blacks. Unbeatable.
You know, so I think there's something to go there. And we know from the campaign that Scott is far more pliable than I thought he would be. And he's not going to over, you know, I think Trump doesn't want to be upstaged. So, you know, I think that so I just keep thinking it will be him. You have another thought, Gibbs?
No, I mean, Stefanik was the one that I think is, I've thought for a while, out of New York and who's gotten a lot of publicity in the last week in talking about university presidents and the Ivy League. Oh, Elise Stefanik. Yeah. And certainly, I think, obviously, she's shown immensely to be quite pliable to somebody like Trump. Unbelievable. She's going to be. Record setter. Record setter. He loves her.
He loves that. - And by the way, Gibbs, you're still in the consulting biz. You guys are still in consulting biz, Murphy.
I bet you there may be some willing clients among these university presidents right now, but that's a different story. I stand with Israel. Trump views these things like a casting director, though. Totally. And Elise Stefanik may not be glam enough for him. Right. So he may go for like a Kristi Noem or somebody like that. Kristi Noem, that's why I'm pitching her. It'll be like, you know, he'll want a centerfold picture to make his final decision.
Yeah. One prediction. I don't know if it's a prediction as much as I think the the but maybe I'll make it a prediction. See if we're wrong. I'm going to give you two predictions because I'm hoping one is wrong. But the first prediction is I think Democrats are going to hold the Senate seats in Iowa. Sorry, in Ohio and Montana.
And the reason I think that, you know, you've got very red states. I thought I was out on a limb. And you've got a lot of evidence in the last few election cycles. Only Susan Collins has won a Senate race in a state that was different than where the presidential contender was. I think Sherrod Brown and Jon Tester will defy that. My other prediction, because I like the fact that you say predictions that we make won't come true.
I'm predicting the Dodgers sweep and win the World Series. I'm wearing my Braves hat, so now that's not going to come true. I'll add one prediction for the hell of it, and then final one from you, and we got to hit the music. This is a big 20-pound sack of Zoloft to all our panicking Biden supporters. I think in the end, Biden does beat Trump in the reelect, but boy, it'll be a lot scarier than it should be. Agreed. Yeah. I tend that way.
And I agree with your conclusion. I mean, you know, I just the burdens that Trump ultimately will be carrying into this election are such that you would expect that. But they've got a lot of work to do between between now and then. Let's stop for a minute and listen to a word from one of our fine sponsors. Listen to me.
If you have a question for the Hacks, all you got to do is email us at hacksontap at gmail.com, hacksontap at gmail.com, or if you're modern communications types,
You want to send us a voicemail. Just keep it 20 seconds or so. No speeches. Bloviating is our job, not yours. But you call our off-track betting number in Chicago somewhere. You can also register to vote again if you feel like it. And that number is 773-389-4471.
We've recorded it because nobody can remember the damn thing. I thought that was your AI-generated voice. That was very snappy. No, he'll be taking over the show next year. I'll be on a beach working on my Portuguese citizenship. All right, the mailbag. Question one to the one and only Robert Z. Gibbs. This is on voicemail, one of our techie listeners. Hey, Hacks, this is Tyler from Texas. Realistically...
What would happen if Biden dropped out at this point? Would Congressman Phillips automatically be the nominee or would the DNC have to meet to create a new process to allow for a competitive primary? Thanks so much. Go ahead, Gibbs. Solve the man's problem. Well, look –
I think the likelihood that he's going to drop out is somewhere close to zero, right? We've talked about this. We've done this ad nauseum. Well, could he still make up his mind? Could he still do this? Could he still change his mind? Could he still drop out? He's not dropping out. This
This is the pitcher, right? And we've got a long way to go. We're in the third inning, and the pitcher's got to go a full nine. I don't know, Axe or Murphy, what the actual delegate thing would be. I assume the DNC would get together and basically rejigger the process for how one would go through the convention delegates. I think it depends on the time. The convention –
Biden would unbind his delegates and the convention would then, I think, be free to choose who they would choose. If something happened after the convention, I think then the DNC itself would make the choice. Yeah, I think that's right. But I think the Democrats don't pick delegates until, what, South Carolina.
No, but no delegates in Iowa, no delegates in New Hampshire. Though some of the filing deadlines have passed. So like you went to Alabama, you don't get any delegates now. But you're right. They would find a way. The thing to keep an eye on is remember the delegates are not individual free-thinking thing. A lot of them are members of public employee unions, teachers.
In the old Republican days, a lot of the Pat Robertson people were the bodies of the primaries pledged them to Bob Dole. And the great nightmare was on third or fourth ballot when they're freed up, they're all for Pat. So you really have to start looking at who the bodies are or the composition of the DNC, which is a much larger number of people than the RNC, which is only about 148 or whatever it is. It's kind of a goat rodeo. Yeah. But but and.
You know, I've said that and I said what I said some weeks ago about this. Only Biden can decide whether Biden's going to be the nominee or not. No one else is going to make this decision for him. He's not going to be beaten in a primary. He's not going to be removed. He's not going to he you know, and as Gibbs says, I mean, I you know, it's the third inning of a
nine inning game. And the question is just, will his arm hold out? And the minor question, which is dark and I don't want to dwell on it, is just biology. If you were to have a serious medical thing. True for any president. Nobody wishes for that, but we shall see. Okay. I want to ask a question of Mike from John.
who asked, with Mike's background with John McCain, are there any corollaries that we can see to how Nikki Haley versus Trump relates to John McCain versus George W. Bush in the 2000 primaries? He will never pass, my friends, a chance to speak about those halcyon days. It was great. John, I miss you. So one, Haley is no John McCain.
But that said, the structure of the New Hampshire primary is good for quirky, non-based candidates. John Kasich, we remember, kind of bubbled to the top along with Trump in 16. So here's the thing to remember. It is likely that the composition of the Republican primary vote in New Hampshire will be anywhere between 40 and 46 percent independent voters.
Now, there's no law that independent voters won't vote for Trump in a primary. He did okay with them last time. But the real reason McCain blew it out in New Hampshire in 2000 is a double-digit win among the independent voters. Without that, he would have won but narrowly. So the question is, can Nikki grab all that and a breakaway chunk of Republicans to have a significant win there?
over Trump. And that's why I keep saying I think she's in the hunt in New Hampshire. It is the best terrain for her of the early states. But, you know, we'll see if she's a third place loser out of out of Iowa. You know, a little of that magic fairy dust won't be there. But she she will have a similar voter construct if she pulls it off to what John did in 2000.
Also the Christie problem in New Hampshire. Right, he's got to get out, which I think he will do. That's another prediction. I predict Christie will wait until the last minute and be for Haley. Well, the interesting parallel, too, with the McCain stuff, it'd largely come down to South Carolina. Right, where she's got a lot more than we did. That's the other thing. She's a pre-aware title there. We were a-huh. We'll see about that.
Christie in New Hampshire. I think to the degree she's dancing around the issue of Trump, it's harder for him to justify getting out. Anyway, you got one for me. I do. I do. And then we'll go on to our special shout out this week to end the year with. This is from Phil.
Phil wants to know, much has been written about Trump will do if elected, but what do you think he'll do if he loses? Well, let's just remember that Donald Trump is running not just to be president of the United States, but to stay out of prison. And I think there's a level of desperation there. We know he'll never accept defeat. And if he were to lose, he will
claim fraud. I mean, he pre-claims fraud before elections. And the question is, what will his supporters do? He's become more and more unhinged in his rhetoric, irresponsible in his rhetoric. And, you know, we saw what happened on January 6th.
when people were told that the election was stolen, they thought it was their patriotic duty to storm the Capitol and right this wrong. I think this could be magnified dramatically in this election. I also think, by the way, if Nikki Haley ever did defeat Trump or anyone defeated Trump for the nomination, unless he cut a deal for a pardon, he would do his level best to... Yeah, sink the boat.
to sink the boat. So, but we'll, you know, I'm,
We'll see if we have the chance to find out what Trump does if he loses. There are a lot, a lot of open questions coming in this next year. And the one prediction I have to end all of this and get to our final stanza here of the year is that there are things that are going to happen in 2024 that none of us sitting here can predict that will have a material impact on
on this election, 'cause there always are. The thing that you fear in campaigns is not the unknown unknowns, and they always happen, and they could strengthen Biden as president.
They could ruin Biden as president. They could impact on Trump. We don't know what they all are. So in addition to the crazy twists and turns of a year in which we have an indicted former president on trial or potentially on trial, there are a lot of other things. I mean, hell, Biden could be looking at 10 years if he gets within three feet of you. All of a sudden, president guilty in a manslaughter attack. So we will wait and see. Too quick for him.
I'm too quick for him. Get a head start. You'll be rage sprinting. All right. So let's get to our golden moment of the year here. My daughter's school does an auction every year for all kinds of good stuff they do. And I always auction off dinner with world-famous political consultant Mike Murphy. And this year they came to me and said, you know, we'd like to raise more than 20 bucks.
You know, we're just not getting the bids here. So I said, well, how about this? Why don't you auction off a shout-out on Hacks on Tap with our worldwide voice and influence? Over 13 million downloads to date. And they said, great. So they had an auction, and the bidding was fierce. Oligarchs from around the world, causes, celebrities, starlets. You couldn't believe it. But a nice woman named Emily won the auction and sent me a note. Hey, Hacks.
I won. I have one request for my shout-out. I thought, oh, promoting a new movie, perhaps, or a cause? No. I want you to roast my husband, Jon Favreau. And I'm not talking about the movie star Jon Favreau. I'm going down the rung a couple hundred notches to former Obama speechwriter, the man who said, look, when you get to Washington, none of this charm stuff. Go with the cold Vulcan fish thing. It'll win your friends everywhere.
legendary legendary obama speechwriter john fabbro gets our shout out and a little insulting from me and of course his two buddies here though i like them too which i shouldn't admit in a roast mr axarod and gibbs i think you invented this problem by hiring him so why don't we why don't we go to you first to make contrition for what was clearly bad judgment
Tell the story about Obama's first meeting with Jon Favreau. I think that's an oldie but goodie. That's exactly where I was going. We were practicing the draft of the convention speech that people now famously know that Obama gave in 2004. We were in a practice session, and Obama had a great line that he really loved.
you know, about both the red and the blue, which you remember in the thing, but he talked about how the red and the blue come together. We all pledge allegiance to the red, white, and blue. Yeah. And so he loved that line. And Favreau, who was a young junior speechwriter and 22 years old, he had been my assistant in the John, my short-lived experience, the John Kerry presidential campaign. Oh,
Oh, he helped you bring that one down, too. OK. And so Favreau calls. Favreau is in the room while we're doing the speech rep and he comes over to me and he says, hey, I need to talk to your candidate about that line there. An almost identical line appears in John Kerry's acceptance speech for the nomination. And we're going to need him to take that out. So I said, you know what?
patted him on the back, and I said, John, let me introduce you to Barack Obama, and you can go do that. Classic staff move. Yeah, and I just said, I walked him over, introduced him, and walked back to where I was sitting. Interestingly, when then-candidate Obama was elected to the U.S. Senate, I did hire John to be his speechwriter in 2005. And
And John met with Barack Obama the morning of Bush's inauguration in 2005 in one of the Senate cafeterias. And when we were walking down, I said to then-Senator Obama, he was like, who am I going to meet? What's this about? It's a speechwriter. And then right before I left him, just as I was turning the corner of the Senate cafeteria, I'm like,
You may remember John. He was the one who took one of the lines you really loved out of your convention speech in 2004. And then I basically...
put him on the back and introduced them again and also walked away. So my claim to fame with John and to Senator Obama is that relationship. I helped bring them together multiple times without interrupting. And developed a great alibi for yourself in two possible bad moments. Go ahead. No, he couldn't roast him any more than he threw him in the lion's den. Then, I mean, I think that's, that's a good enough. Yeah. I remember, I remember that, uh,
I remember that moment when we sent that young lad, crew-cutted, doe-eyed, young man into the hotel room.
obama to take his his uh favorite line out yeah because the because kerry had magically lighted on the same uh the great thing about the story just so people know is many many days before any of these speeches are given you've got to give a draft we gave multiple drafts to the dnc in fact we went
through this whole process where at one point we were told Barack Obama would have seven minutes to do the keynote. That's a story for a different time about what we unwound for that. But you have to give all these different drafts. So it's not as if obviously what makes the story great is it's pretty clear that somebody in the speech writing room read it, lifted the line, put it into Kerry's speech, and then poor John had to come find out how to get that line out of there.
Oh, boy. By the way, John Kerry turned 80 on Sunday, on Monday. So happy birthday to him. And to Emily, John's wife, let me say we all have a deep debt of gratitude to you for pulling John out of his adolescence in his late 30s and turning him to the responsible citizen that he is today. So congratulations.
Good for you. We're very, very grateful. Hey, guys, I'm grateful to you guys as well as we ring out this year. Tons of fun to be with you. Can't wait for the new year. What do we talk about next year?
Yeah. Oh, there will be plenty. It won't be Favreau. I think we've exhausted that. But thank you. I have to clean up. Unless he buys another auction thing. Yeah, no, look, get out your credit card. We are for sale. Kim Jong-il, I'm talking to you. To all our great listeners, all our hackaroos, we wish you a very happy holidays, Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, and a very, very happy, healthy new year. Happy holidays, everybody.
Happy New Year. And see you next year when the year turns and the primary season really begins.