Deep Dive
Shownotes Transcript
Hey, pull up a chair. It's Hacks on Tap with David Axelrod, Robert Gibbs, and Mike Murphy. Is there any chance you take a plea deal in Georgia? We did nothing wrong. We don't ever take a plea deal. We don't take plea deals. It's a wise guy question. Are you going to change this to wise guy? Well, wise guy, Mike Murphy, haven't seen you in a while. I was framed.
It's all a setup. It's anti-orange-haired discrimination. That's what it is, and I'm looking forward to my... He's starting to sound like Pretty Boy Floyd. This is fantastic. It's good to be back. We've been gone for two weeks. I know Twitter. I know. That's what happens when you listen to a free podcast, okay? We get to take two weeks off, but it's great to be back with you and the estimable Mr. Gibbs. Another redheaded pretty boy.
Yeah, that's me. By the way, if any kids are on Murphy's lawn, get off his lawn, please. That's right. I got a hose here and I'll use it, you little urchins. Yeah. So what do you think, guys? It's another week, another indictment. It's becoming literally a reality show. Every week or so, every couple of weeks, we get the same scene, the same frantic coverage, the same appalling but not surprising narrative. But
We're hacked. Like, what does it mean? Well, who knows? We're going to find out. If you repeat the old pattern, it's Republicans who like Trump, his chunk of the primary electorate, which is kind of the plurality winner right now, that's
They all say, oh, it's all rigged and they love them more. At least that's what national polls say. And I, you know how I feel about those in a primary contest early, but then you start to wonder about this. Camel's got a lot of straws, a lot of straws. You also have an indictment at the state level. He can't pardon himself.
You have a lot of other co-conspirators indicted, which in the prosecutor world, they like to call rat city because people make deals. So it's bad. It's bad. And I think the camel's back will start to break even in the primary, but we just don't know yet. But this one is easy to understand.
And he doesn't have a lot of friends in the statehouse. Governor Kemp's no fan. The AG, who's running for governor himself, so probably is thinking Republican politics, Carr, is still kind of twinkle-toesing it here. So if I were Trump, I'd be really worried. I think legally he should be really worried. I don't know that politically the world's different or tremendously different today than it was yesterday or even right before the indictment last night. I'm
I've said this before. I'm fascinated to see, do any of his opponents call him out on this? This is different than the stuff around January 6th. Obviously, it was the culmination of some of that. But this is a state case. It was brought by a state jury or a Fulton County jury. And I don't understand. At some point, Murphy, to your point, the straw to break the camel's back, unless you just have...
unless the entire Republican political strategy is one of jurisprudence, at some point, somebody is going to have to go and somebody significant, meaning capable of winning the nomination, is going to go out and have to say,
that this is disconcerting that these things have piled up and that we can't just say, I mean, they can't just say this is Merrick Garland and Joe Biden, right? Because the, the, as the governor is a Republican, the secretary of state's Republican, the attorney general's a Republican. I mean, so I just wonder at some point whether somebody is going to finally stand up there again, who's got a chance at winning this nomination and say, well,
This is really problematic. Overthrowing an election is really problematic. We'll find out next week if there's a debate next week. We'll talk about that in a minute. But on your point, yeah, he's got a Republican establishment in Georgia that is on the other side of this by and large. But I don't know if you guys saw Kemp's tweet last week. And he thought that he was sticking Trump in.
And he said, you know, any of the candidates running, any of the candidates running would be better than Joe Biden. And we all ought to be willing to say we'll support the winner. Well, he you know, because Trump wouldn't sign the document that the RNC wants him to sign to be in the debate saying he'd support the nominee. But the way I read it was, OK, you're saying Donald Trump.
indicted convicted maybe in prison i mean obviously that's not likely would be a better president than joe biden i mean i guess murphy that plays with republicans but it's
It's freaking insane and irresponsible. Yeah, look, I would love the whole party to put on a halo and go after him morally. I think it's the right thing to do. But Kemp wants to run for Senate in 2026 against Ossoff. So they're watching the Republican voter flank who see this tribally. And they are going to pound on this poor DA, who is actually quite excellent. But
But they're going to say, look, it's a 72% Biden County. The state didn't indict Trump. The city, the Democrat machine city of Fulton County, they're going to say that. They're going to say her dad was a Black Panther. That'll be all over Fox. Black people. Right, right, right. Black day, black political machine, blah, blah, blah. Well, that's what Trump does. I mean, his first reaction, whenever there's a protest,
a prosecutor of color, they're racist. And if they're white, they're insane. I mean, they're deranged. He ought to change that up and say she's insane and say the white guys are racist just for variety's sake. But go ahead, Gibbs, you're dying to get in here. To take your point a little bit further, Axe, it's not just that he would be a better president. The RNC is asking them to sign a document
that if he becomes the nominee, they're all going to go support him as the nominee. Like forgetting that- Which is, by the way, nobody is. Yeah, but it's a bullshit. Even Trump says it's a bullshit document. But yes, it's stupid of the RNC to do, but they're corrupt. But hold on. So your entire premise as a political party is to sign something that doesn't mean anything.
Oh, by the way, let me make you a series of promises in this political campaign about what I'm going to do. I mean, yeah, careful about that, because I remember a lot of I will not raise middle class taxes, but their voters aren't that stupid.
This is such an important point because thinking about DeSantis, who is supposed to be Trump's principal opponent in this race, he tiptoes around him like he's in a minefield. And he's constantly parsing, did Donald Trump win? He put his hand on the Bible, he took the oath, he's the president. No.
No, that's not the question. That's not the question. And, you know, he's constantly doing that. And you know what? His whole candidacy is premised on I'm going to out Trump Trump. And when Trump goes down, I'll be the guy they all flock to. And so it's.
Utter bullshit that he, you know, that he wants Trump to be convicted. He wants Trump to be taken out of the game. And here's the bottom line. And I'm sorry, you guys, for the big windup. But what Gibbs is saying is so important because the thing that keeps Trump afloat in part is that he says whatever the hell he wants. And it's usually whatever's on his mind. He doesn't, you know, pull his punches. And he seems authentic.
And Ron DeSantis in particular, but all of them look like politicians tiptoeing around him like they are. Yeah, yeah. Look, I mean, if we step back, the bigger problem is ultimately you can't beat Trump without beating him. If you want to be the king lion, you got to bite the mangy old lion. Now, you can bite him like a Democrat, which talk about what a horrible person he is and all that. I don't think you're going to see that. But you can use the kryptonite on Trump, which he's a big fat loser. Right.
And he's looking more like a loser against Biden, who the party hates and the party thinks is very vulnerable. So that's the neurosis you hear. I agree. Is that Trump is going to lose to Biden. Now-
I think the debate now, DeSantis, to be fair, and it's hard to be fair to DeSantis because he's so many self-inflicted wounds and stupidity. And clearly they're running Macbeth two down there in the inside thing. It makes Stalingrad look like a summer picnic. But they are tilting a little. He has started to say Trump lost the election, not in a way that will get him the applause. But they know they need a new plan because they're losing.
And so the question will be, will anybody use the debate? We're going to talk about it. And the big question is, does Trump show up to start to do that? The one who I think is well positioned, but is failing the test of beating Trump by showing some alpha, and I've got a substack coming out on this, is Tim Scott, because Scott is unique.
Scott can say, look, I come from the morally loaded crusade to do the right thing in America wing of the party. And we have to admit that I have many of Donald Trump's enemies. I get especially because I'm an African-American conservative. Trump has many of the right enemies, but he lacks the character to be president of the United States. If Scott can't say that, I don't think he can beat Trump. So I think they have a little time to do it.
It doesn't have to be now. I can tell you after three weeks up here in New Hampshire where I'm running the HACS Bureau up here in the Lakes region, I've been all over the state, talked to a lot of people. What a sacrifice. Yeah, no, exactly. And your lodge there with your American flag in the background. It's kind of the shoe leather reporting. Excuse me, Thaddeus, another martini, please. Your expenses are not reimbursable. What do you see from your hammock there? Well, I can tell you there's no primary up here. It doesn't exist.
The only yard signs you see other than the odd Trump Rambo poster on somebody's, you know, a barn somewhere is you see Kennedy, 24 signs. The anti-vaxxers have nothing else to do. So my point is the national media thinks we're in the middle of it. Up here, we're entering the baseball stadium. You know, we haven't swung the first bat yet. So there is a period starting with the debate for stuff to happen. Now, we'll see if it is. But I think all these guys running against Trump
understand at least internally that the wait for a lightning bolt to kill Trump and get beamed up strategy will not beat him. Yeah. I mean, one of the questions for guys like Scott is, are you running for president or are you running for vice president? And you just got to make a decision. You just got to answer that. So did you see this New Hampshire poll today in the Emerson poll?
Yes, I've seen like three of them and some private stuff. It's all Trump 49, though some of the private stuff is Trump like 39, 40, 42. No, I was going to say, I agree that maybe the baseball game hasn't, maybe they're still throwing out the first pitch, but FYI. Trump starts with a guy on second base. The score's like six to nothing, just FYI. Yeah, you guys, I'm telling you, we'll see. But the hacks up here, I'll smell trouble on them. I'm just saying.
Murphy, you've been predicting smelling trouble for a year. Yeah, I've been right. We'll find out. Murphy's got a particularly sensitive nose. I don't get the aroma quite the way you do. I know, but Gibbs, you're doing the easy thing. You're pointing at the polls saying 50% he can't lose. We'll see. I'm saying there will be a campaign and things could happen. I didn't say he can't lose. Yeah, but you're saying he's essentially inevitable and you don't believe he's going to lose the nomination.
I think right now there's nobody among your group of people that you talk to that is positioned anywhere close to being able to beat him. They're hoping lightning strikes the guy dead. They're literally hoping they strike him dead and that somehow they can put this thing together. I don't disagree. Look, I think he could lose Iowa. I don't think he's totally safe in any of these things.
But also, you can't tell me there's anybody out there doing anything close to acting like somebody who's in danger of being the presumptive nominee. Well, I don't know. I think you're like two-thirds right. I know. Here comes Burgum again. Okay. Well, let me finish. Let me finish. Let me finish.
All right, you Democrats. Okay, so. Oh, now he's getting nasty. Yeah, right. That was a scheming lie that you guys are Dems. I agree. Again, election's not tomorrow.
I think there's some change-ups coming, and I think they could work. And I think Scott in particular has built an interesting base. I think he has two problems, the alpha-engaged Trump problem we're talking about. His other problem, if he plays the Christian thing in Iowa, he'll be President Huckabee or Cruz. He'll give Trump what Trump needs more than anything else to come back right here in New Hampshire.
So Scott's got to change up a lot, but Scott has become more and more well-liked. You hear talk and curiosity about him. That's not a winning campaign, but that's the first step toward one. In this poll, what's interesting, and this is several polls now, DeSantis is in third, I mean, marginally. Yeah, he's crumbling. But Chris Christie has slipped into second place there. And your man Scott is at sixth.
But I agree with Murphy. Listen, this is uncharted waters, okay? Anybody who says they know for sure anything is making a mistake. But one thing that is clear, I mean, how many other people on the planet could be indicted four times and still be...
37 points ahead in polling nationally and ahead by, in this poll, 40 points in New Hampshire, 24 in Iowa. I'll give you one. If this was 2010,
And Barack Obama had been indicted in, let's say Obama had lost his reelect, but was still popular in the party. And the craziest people had taken over the Republican Party. And it was President Trump and his Justice Department indicted Obama and a partisan Democrat. If it was kind of a mirror image of this, I don't think the Democratic Party,
electorate would be as loyal to Obama as Republicans have been to Trump, but there'd be a lot of it. It would just be tribalism. There might be, but you know what the difference is? The Republican Party, Mike, today, and this is my whole objection to
You know, I mean, there are many, many, many reasons that I don't want Donald Trump to be the nominee of the Republican Party. And I would be horrified if he were president again. But, you know, I've said a million times, the guy hate, he does not believe in rules and laws and norms and institutions. And he has created a whole movement of people who can't stand Trump.
uh, rules and laws and norms and institutions. I agree. There's a special poison that, yeah. So that doesn't exist in the Democrat party is basically a pro government party. Yeah. That's why I think it would be less there, but I don't underestimate tribalism and picking a side now. But you're assuming, I mean, if you ask, and maybe they, they ask it in that New Hampshire poll, you still got two thirds of Republican voters, uh,
that think Trump should have won the election, right? You've got an entire six-year record of getting people to think that walking outside on a sunny day that the sky is red. And he's convinced two-thirds of them that despite the fact that it's blue every day,
He's gotten them to say, yes, it's red. No, it's all true. And it's an epic level. But this is not new. It's human nature. How many Democrat activists thought that in 2000, Bush stole the count in Florida, right? Jim Baker went in there and out.
witted the Warren Christopher and then Bush was not at this level. It's on incredible steroids because we've had an essentially corrupt president poisoning his son. Yeah, because the guy who lost said he lost. No, no. I would hear it blood for oil all the time. It's just activists tend to go to the most partisan theory. And Trump has put that on kind of evil steroids, you know.
which is yet another Trump crime against America. All of this circles around to Murphy's point, which is that everything does in the end. That's the leitmotif of the whole show. But it circles back to this point that the only way that Trump crumbles and loses this nomination is if people on the Republican side decide
come to believe not that he isn't being done wrong, but that the burden is just too much and he can't and he can't he can't win. And, you know, we'll see if that happens. But right now, a majority Republican voters still believe by a wide, wide margin that Donald Trump
is the strongest candidate they can field against Joe Biden. And that's the number to watch. It's all true, but you're also right. It's the number to watch because we're covering this like there's a real primary campaign. And I would argue there isn't one. We've got national polls that would be great and predictive if the election were held tomorrow in one big election.
But it's a series of elections and you got this little deaf channel and you can add Nevada maybe that you have for two, three weeks in January. That is really the campaign. And I would submit we got to wait and see. And big things like the fourth big indictment with some Republican involvement in that are not insignificant factors in the mix. So, you know, everybody in the national media is concerned.
years ahead of where voter land is other than right now. Yeah, Trump's the king of our tribe. The other tribe sucks. We like Trump. All true, Mike. But one thing I would say is even in the states where there are primary campaigns going on, like Iowa in particular,
voters there, a majority of voters there still say they believe Trump would be the strongest candidate against Biden. Let's let it work because I've heard this argument before in other places, the Hillary campaign, and then stuff happens. But I agree right now, Trump sits atop a mountain. I just think it's hard to cover a campaign that I think
fundamentally has yet to really begin. But we're close. You know, we can we'll be fighting it out, looking at state polls in December, and they're going to mean something. One point and then one question. I mean, I think what's going to be fascinating, I don't know if you saw this right before we came on that on Truth Social, that Trump is going to have this is going to be fun to watch. A press conference, right? At Bedminster next Monday, a press conference where he's going to release the almost wrapped up report of how they stole Georgia.
It's going to be good. Chinese mind control. We'll get to the debate in a second, but my guess is everybody's going to get a chance to answer, have you read the report and what do you believe it at the beginning of that debate? Murphy, I agree with you on a lot of the meta of the environment and the fact that
While, yes, this thing hasn't gotten into full swing, I do think, like I said, maybe it's not six to nothing like I did, but Axe will say there's a guy starting on second for Trump. Do you believe, though, if they don't croak him in Iowa, that they're going to be able to catch him anywhere else? Well, here's my formula.
The same person has to beat him in Iowa and New Hampshire, or you give him the kryptonite anecdote he needs, which is a comeback. So if he loses Iowa and wins New Hampshire, it's over. He'll run the table. He's got to be beaten twice in a row. Uh,
optimally by one person, two person, then it's a big plurality race and Trump has an advantage. So Tim Scott better learn how to run a campaign that can't just win Iowa, which I think he's doing, but one that can also win New Hampshire where the best slogan is fuck Iowa.
Um, if you come out of it a Christian, because this is a very secular primary. The other thing that all these media polls are missing that nobody talks about except the local hacks in those states. And you hear about it here, of course, on Hacks on Tap is nobody knows what the electorate of the caucus is going to be this time because you got 160,000 board Democrats and Democrat leaning independents. And it's very easy to vote in an Iowa caucus.
Here in New Hampshire, you have an anti-vax nut with a famous name and a president with lukewarm support. So in both cases, the Republican vodka in the cocktail is going to be a bit diluted.
And most of that new water coming in ain't for Trump. So that affects the polling and everything else. I'm waiting for Ann Seltzer to understand she's got a huge opportunity in Iowa. Poll those 160,000 Dems. Ask if 30,000 of them are bored and they're going to show up because the civic value of a caucus now is a big thing.
Who better to talk about dilution than a woman named Seltzer, right? Uh-oh, the red phone's ringing. It's the pun police yet again. They're after you, Axe. You've been on probation for years, but this could be the last one. All right, hold that thought. We're going to take a short break. And now a word from our sponsors. But let's get to the debate because that counts.
Yeah, let's talk about that. I think you'll get a Des Moines poll in September, no doubt. But I bet mid-September you get something. And then just before we get to debate, just quickly for both of you two, because again, no doubt that both of these are states that make up their minds late. When should our listeners...
focus, I'm totally with you on the national polling. When should they focus on state polling being real? I think, and you guys remember your experience there. I've had similar ones on the Republican side. We had some bad meetings about those. Yeah, you know, it starts to get interesting in November, but really that 30 days in December for a January 15th date,
it becomes important because then the dogs have had a chance to taste other dog foods. I mean, right now, the early state dogs, and you can argue about the numbers. I see somewhat tighter stuff, but say 40%, they've all tasted Trump dog food and 40% are lined up tail wagon. Now 60% are curious. Well, that curiosity will start to get answered a few more debates and local campaigning groups.
months from now. So I think on December 3rd through December 20th, that period is when a lot will happen or not happen, and there should be data to kind of track it. We're going to mark that down on our calendar. I agree with you that November is when the turn really comes. But let's talk about the debate. There's a debate next week
You said there, if Trump shows up, I don't, there's not a whole lot of, I mean, he can, you know, he's the master of surprise. Maybe he will, but right now it sure doesn't feel like he's going to show up. So, I mean, if he does show up,
It's obviously one kind of event. And Christie will have his day and they'll go at it and it'll be a big slugfest, probably between the two of them with others sort of yapping to try and get in the mix. But let's assume he doesn't show up. And let me throw out the opener here. I've said this before. I think this debate is absolutely crucial for DeSantis.
who's desperately trying to hang on to his status as the major Trump challenger. And he needs to show up here and he needs to make an impression. I don't know if he can. Yeah, I would say, and I think Trump actually should show up, but we can talk about that later. I think the two with the most at stake are DeSantis and Haley. I say Scott isn't, although it's a great opportunity for him, but he's got the money and the legs to go a little longer.
Haley needs a national moment or she's going to be in the Scott Walker Museum, I think, because $7 million and some Super PAC money. She can't ante it. That's a boring museum. Yeah, a lot of stuff candidates there. The Sam Yorty wing is particularly interesting. So she needs that –
famed charisma that she allegedly has. She, she needs a spark be different and she might have the tools to do it. So pressure on her. And I agree on DeSantis. Look, he has a full donor revoke going on. It's the first time I've ever seen the super packet war with the candidate committee. They just threw a campaign manager out the window, probably more to come. Uh, the culture there is crazy. So DeSantis needs a restart and he needs to be good. Uh,
or he's going to open up for a new star to be created. Now, it might be Haley. That's what she desperately needs. Could be Scott if he's ready for it. I don't know what the prep is like. I worry a lot of these guys will, and this is common in first debates, give their Chamber of Commerce speech not knowing where they really are. Okay, send your letters to Robert Gibbs and David Axelrod, but Vivek, et cetera, Ramaswamy. He would be my pick to click.
for a guy who surprised on the high side. Yeah. He's kind of got a little of the total outsider vibe.
wild-eyed Maury Taylor meets, you know, add four more guys like that. And they can have little bumps, you know, so there could be something for him. And Burgum, I don't think is ready to use it, although I like Burgum and I wish he had more of a message. Sold the Burgum stock at a loss. Well, no, no, the Burgum week when he had a great launch and then no message. That's the problem. These guys don't understand his message and talking about oil prices in North Dakota ain't it.
Well, to your point, I think the debate puts without Trump there. And I think one of the reasons he doesn't show up is because it, quite frankly, puts pressure, as you said, Murphy, not just on... I mean, I think it's DeSantis in a big way, but it's also five other candidates. Because, quite frankly, if you can't use your breakout moment to distinguish yourself at the small table before Trump comes in, how are you going to do that in a world in which...
He blocks out the sun. I also think it's going to be fascinating to watch just how much of the debate is about Trump without even interjecting other candidates on Trump, because we've seen news cycle after news cycle for years, years dominated, not by anything that any of these guys is saying out on the campaign trail, not any issue that they want to bring up, but about Donald Trump. And I think a lot of that could be, it's going to be interesting to see, uh,
how somebody tries to distinguish themselves in a world in which they all need that moment. DeSantis has to play a lot of defense and some offense, but every one of these candidates needs to begin to distinguish themselves in a way that positions them, Murphy, to be able to pull off
Oh, look, I agree. And none of them are ready because none of them have been in one of these before. You're going to see a lot of rookie nerves and revert to not offend anybody. But again, the reason I think Trump ought to be there is if he's not there, one, his tough guy image takes a hit. And two, he gives other people an opportunity to become a star. If he is there, it's just him and Christie throwing furniture at each other. And Christie's so hated that.
Democrats will love it. They'll nominate Christie. But in the Republican world, I think it'll crowd the others out, which strategically is good for Trump. Fox, can you ring a bell?
Yeah, I just want to get in. That is the lamest bell, by the way. Jeff, pay for the $100 needle drop. Send me the bill. This is embarrassing. Hannah, get Jeff a bell, will you? Here are my predictions. First of all, as an aside, I just want to say you said DeSantis threw his manager out. It's interesting. He moved his manager from manager to chief strategist, and then he got his chief of staff
from Florida to come and be the manager, which underscores what everybody's always said, which is this campaign is being managed by DeSantis and his wife. And Casey DeSantis, who apparently has a real clause on management style. Don't send me angry, sexist letters, okay? It's possible for there to actually be a troublesome spouse. I wrote a piece on this on CNN.com yesterday about this whole DeSantis shakeup thing.
But getting back to this debate, here's what I predict. I think Christie will be very aggressive and he'll go after Trump, but I think he'll... You're taking odds on that bet? Maybe go after the others for not taking on Trump. And I think he may be particularly hard on DeSantis. I think Ramaswamy will...
try and be the guy who takes on Christie for Trump. And I think that's how, that's the kind of, kind of event that he's going to try and create. I think Tim Scott will go in there trying to do what he does, which is use his bio and so on. Here's the, here's the problem with that. I mean, you know, we're talking as if all Republicans are going to be watching this debate. No Trump,
I think very little audience. Yeah. Yeah, I don't know. The way you, well, we'll see. But the way you, as you guys all know, the way you really score in these debates is you score a line that becomes viral and is on your message.
And, you know, I'm sure Christie will do it. The question is, and I think Ramaswamy has proven himself to be, by the way, did you guys know that he was, you know, out of that whole Harvard IOP generation with Pete Buttigieg and Elise Stefanik and a couple of other people there. But anyway, I think he's proven himself to be pretty glib.
And he probably will have that moment. And the question is whether Scott can push through. And then Haley, does she distinguish herself as the only woman on that platform? You know, and can she make that work for her? Yeah, I think she'll do Foreign Affairs, which is kind of a losing hand in the modern primary. I think she needs something better. But you're right. She really needs a moment. Well, they all do. Wait, is Pence in the debate yet? Yes. So he's going to do the opening prayer.
Yeah, I was going to say, Mr. 1% is going to be there for a little bit. He's looking a little better in history lately, but yeah, he's the man with no country in this. The Trumpers ate him and he's not anti-Trump enough for the move on people. He's become a larger footnote in history, I think. I think to your point on Scott, he's got to use his bio to distinguish himself into saying something and doing something differently.
That would lend itself to what he might be doing as president I think the idea is gonna say Trump's morally unfit and I say that is you know Christian conservative and I doubt he'll do it There's no way but that's his opportunity. He's got standing the others don't have his problem is you put him in a small room He's a monster. He's fantastic, but you need time and the only guy in the mic throwing elbows in one of these things He's never been in that situation. I doubt he'll be ready for it. Hope I'm wrong same for Burgum. I
What are you guys estimating? Murphy, you think it's going to be a big audience, huh? Well, no, I think the audience metric's way overblown. I think it would be bigger with Trump, but it'll be big enough to be the big thing in the primary for a week. And it could start to shuffle the decks. Do I expect the Republican Party to be settled on August 26 after one summer debate? No. But it's the first big moment with opportunity for people to make a big step forward.
And medium ratings are plenty for that. And, you know, again, social media, the way the world works now, it'll rattle on for a week. If you create those moments, yeah. You start with 3 million people that are going to be watching the time slot or 2.5 million people are going to be watching the time slot on Fox anyway. I think you'll get a decent-sized audience. You're not going to get
10 million like you might in a Trump race or a Trump debate after what's gone on in the past two and a half, three weeks. But to your point, I think you'll have a sizable group that'll be watching and I
Anybody who's doing this has got to have not just a plan for how they're going to prosecute that 90 or 120 minutes, but how they're going to use the next few days to use not just that moment, but to keep it going over the course of the next several days in interviews, on the trail, in speeches and keep going.
It's their opportunity to start driving something. And it's finance meat. You got a bunch of nervous big donors falling off the sanders who are looking for a horse that can run. Lamar Alexander taught me a great thing. Wiley old Paul said, there's only one question. Yes, Robert. When he was elected governor, he had a plaid shirt. That's how he beat the Democrat. But anyway, he said, there's one big question in like grassroots activist politics.
What's going on? And, you know, you want to be what's going on that people talk about. And that's what the debate really gives somebody something to do. Wasn't that Marvin Gaye? I think it was Marvin Gaye. He stole it from Lamar. Happened a lot. I bet they talked a lot. I'm just trying to picture Marvin Gaye in a plaid. Anyway, so... They bonded over music. People don't know that Lamar made a living as a pickup piano player in New Orleans. He could play anything. He had an interesting life as a young man. But go ahead. One last thing.
on the Republicans. The Iowa State Fair was interesting. One of my favorite events. It does speak to, I mean, look, Mike, I know you joke about it. Well, you Democrats, you want Trump. I don't. Yeah, I believe that. I know the good Democrats don't. But I also think we make a mistake when we don't recognize his feral genius and his star power. And you saw it at the Iowa State Fair. You know, I mean,
Maybe any ex-president gets that, but there's something more to it. He's still- Well, he's a TV celebrity too. He's a showbiz guy. Yeah, he's a showbiz guy. Yeah, and that's great power. I mean, I'm the guy who worked for Schwarzenegger, the good version of that equation. So it-
it's real. But he just completely outdid DeSantis and the others. Okay. Just one second. I need to send Murphy, you need to spend two weeks in Iowa because I would love to pick up what, I mean, it does look like DeSantis, one, is spending a ton of time there, right? More probably than everybody else combined. Lots of on the ground, local media, which he was
allergic to for years. I wouldn't be surprised if DeSantis, who's had a bad run of several months, donors, all this stuff in that Ann Seltzer Des Moines register poll could find himself. My guess is, you know, obviously trailing Trump.
But my guess is reestablishing himself in a much stronger second position in Iowa with people from third to eighth that are all bunched at very, very low numbers. The Hacks say early there too, but DeSantis is in it. The problems he has nationally at the donor class and the media class, because he's a knuckle-dragger and blah, blah, blah, not as big in Iowa. He's selling some tickets on Culture War. And Casey, for all the –
internal criticism is very good on the trail. Yeah, she's his modular humanity unit. The ground war report in Iowa is much nicer for DeSantis than the national Georgetown cocktail party circuit with which you guys are so well acquainted. One reason he needs a good showing in that Iowa poll is that the governor, Kim Reynolds, has been very warm to him. And she allowed in this past week, we have the audio, we don't necessarily need to play it, but
She might come out late. She allowed that she might come out with an endorsement. Yep. Scott, too. She showed up at his big event in Des Moines. She's kind of playing both of those. She's looking for the person who can if she thinks she can push someone over the line against Trump.
she's going to do it. And the question is who that will be. So this next poll is going to be important for him. And given her popularity with Iowans, Republicans in Iowa would be a big, big get. Particularly Republican regulars, because Iowa is still a tribal state within the Republican Party. And again, there could be in a caucus of 175,000 people, there could be 30,000 new faces who don't have a Democrat primary to play in, which is a material number.
Okay, let's take a break right here for a word from our sponsor, and we'll be right back. I got three things on the Democrats. And Murphy, talk about how you see this Hunter Biden development. Someone had a great line on CNN last night and said that, you know, on Fox, the indictment stuff underplays, and you'd think that Hunter Biden was president. But he's clearly...
You know, they wanted to get this in their rearview mirror. They didn't get it in the rearview mirror. Now there's a prospect of a Hunter Biden trial. How much does that matter? Because he isn't the president. Well, it's tribal food. You know, well, the Dems have all the Trump stuff to howl about. This gives Republican base voters something to howl about looking for. It's kind of a permission structure. Yeah, well, look at Hunter Biden. You know, he's an international drug lord.
I think out in the swing voter land, it doesn't mean much, but, uh,
It gets in the way of other Biden messaging, which Biden desperately needs because he's getting his ass kicked on perception of the economy, even to Donald Trump, which if I were his campaign doctor, I'd look at the x-ray and say, you know, maybe it's time to hand the family business over to somebody else because this is a very bad looking political x-ray. So I think it's an opportunity cause for Biden to do the things he gets in the way of fixing himself. But do I think a voter in
you know, uh, Livonia, Michigan is going to make an ultimate choice on, on Hunter Biden, if it's a persuadable vote or no. But you're right in the, in that, in that base world, uh, it is, uh, it is, it lives in that whataboutism thing that they desperately need right now. And the house Republicans are intoxicated on it and they're going to beat the hell out of it. Uh, and, uh,
But Gibbs, I think it's inconvenient. And I think the biggest problem with it may be the psychological impact on Biden himself. The psychological impact. I think the likelihood, to your point, you know, little did they know when they looked in the rearview mirror, objects are closer than they appear. Ended up being the case. I think the.
I think legally, obviously, setting aside the trial, because I think the trial is going to affect them more politically. I think you and I talked about this, Axe. This is a...
A U.S. attorney that's been investigating Hunter for five and a half years. So the designation of a special counsel doesn't necessarily, given his purview, open up a lot of sort of files or investigations that he wasn't already doing. Right. With a lot of conjecture about this means now that he.
He can indict in California and basically other places than Delaware because he has this thing as a special counsel. So I don't think legally there's as much peril as there is politically. It's not going away. It's going to be there. People are going to ask it instead of getting a, being able to pitch yourself, uh,
And what you've done to improve inflation and improve the economy and keep people hiring, you're going to likely get questions at a press conference or out of the trail. Well, he did. You saw he blew up again at Peter Doocy from Fox who asked him about it. This is going to be a pain in the ass for him.
There's exactly big distraction and it will weigh on him because it's his, it's his kid on the upside. And the viral moment ends up being blowing up on a reporter about your son and feeling a little, making it feeling a little thin. Yeah. But your son, the, the epic screw up. Okay. Let's there's,
100 minds earn some of this trouble. No, I think his point is here you end up looking once again like Clint Eastwood and Gran Torino chasing the kids off the lawn. So that's a problem, especially given his vulnerabilities. On the upside, while we were away, they voted in Ohio.
on this constitutional amendment, which would have reduced to a majority, which would have increased to 60% what it takes to pass a constitutional amendment. It's now and has been for a long time, 50%. And all this was in service of trying to beat back a pro-choice movement.
uh, initiative that will be voted on in November. And once again, as in Kansas during the 2022 cycle, uh, the, uh, the no side one dramatically. Yeah. Michigan too. Yeah. So this has to be encouraging from a turnout. So I, I think the gift of,
I mean, you know, the gift that Justice Alito, political gift that he gave Democrats with the Dobbs decision, that seems to be the gift that keeps on giving, Murphy. Yeah. Look, it's a big change. Supreme Court taking away perceived rights. We haven't had that in a long time, which makes it politically hot. Abortion, which was kind of settled in politics, now back again. It's the classic...
Hey, let's build a Terminator. Great. So the Republican Party built a Terminator, and then it stood up and killed three scientists and walked out the door. So now our Terminator, which stupidly was turned on, is out slaughtering us. It gives the Democrats a wonderful smoke bomb that changes the subject. Biden's a crazy old man who doesn't know what time it is, and he can't run the economy. Oh, that's troubling, but what about the abortion police arresting your sister? And bingo, we're now not debating the economy anymore. So it's a...
f***ing disaster politically, and it's going to hurt us in the suburbs. May not be enough to save Joe Biden, who's doing a great job of getting ready to lose, but it's a real problem. It's a self-inflicted wound. Yeah, just for the record, way more than a smoke bomb. This isn't just a diversion of attention. This is why you've seen
Republican women in Kansas, Republican women in Ohio, Republican women in Michigan, some of those swing states, some of those decidedly not swing states either anymore or have been in a long time. I'd feel better, quite frankly, actually, if the ballot initiative happened.
was in 2024 versus 2023. 100%. Yeah. I mean, I think Sherrod Brown would feel the same way. By the way, forget Republican women. It's young men. They're the most pro-choice voter group in America. Yeah. You guys can think about that for a while and figure out why. When you consider what Biden's challenges are in this election, one is mobilizing young people
And this is certainly an issue that will mobilize young people. So listen, listen. But it will take Alabama up from 60 for Trump if he's the nominee to 62. So yet again, another strategic masterstroke. On this point, there was an analysis from FiveThirtyEight. And what it found was that in 38 special elections held so far this year, 2023, 10
Democrats have outperformed the partisan lean or the relative liberal or conservative history, because not all races are partisan races, of the areas where the races were held by an average of 10%. And this is better than the results going into the 2022 midterms, where I think it was 4%.
But, you know, this is this is Nash. I mean, it is a pattern that is repeating itself nationally. And in you know, if Democrats were running in Democrat districts, they're running, you know, 20 points beyond what they normally would be expected to run. If they're running in Republican districts, they're losing by far narrower margins. That has to mean something. Oh, it's good news. And it's you can pin it on Trump. But boy, it would be better news if Biden weren't an anchor.
You know, that's the problem. But yes, it is good news for the Democrats. Yeah, but I think, though, this is one of those issues that really means something in those areas that are ultimately going to decide an incredibly close race in six or seven states. This is a, you know, I think about all the issues that Republicans have spent time talking about over the past six months. You know, I'm happy if Ron DeSantis wants to go in and make book banning his big deal. And we talk about
and abortion. I'm fairly sure I know who's going to win those swing areas based on that. I think this is an issue that means real things, to your point, Murphy, taking away freedoms, real things in people's lives. And that's why it's so potent. A lot of these other things, you know, you barely get 36 or 35 or 34 percent, just the hardcore Republicans. And I think, you know, it's going to look, it's going to do what it did in 2022, which is make Democrats look like they're talking about issues
that are of real concern to people versus a lot of ancillary stuff. I think that's all true in a generic election, off year and maybe a close presidential. The problem is the dunk tank theory of presidential politics. If Biden can't put 10 points of economic performance perception on the board, then
boy, I think a lot of this other stuff that's powerful won't be powerful enough. I think Trump plus all that stuff you're talking about could be enough for Biden. That's a fair fight because of Trump's negatives. But even one of these new guys that everybody snarls at, if they're new and not Biden, boy, I'd be nervous. Well, I think anybody who's 25, 30 years, 40 years younger than him has a built-in advantage. So
you know, the candidates like DeSantis who are running so far to the right, six-week abortion ban and so on, I think create their own problems. There's a reason Donald Trump doesn't want to answer the abortion question. And
And he hasn't. Well, yeah, he's pro-choice. That's the problem. Well, May might be a smart time to reveal that. Yeah, well, politically, it's the idea of him pushing this off while they've, to your point, actually raced to prove that...
just how pro-life they are with the batons is going to create a series of problems. Well, listen, this is the problem that Republicans have. The things that it takes to win a primary now are things that immediately disadvantage you in a general. But just quickly, primaries are not depositions. It's amazing the swivel and pivot stuff. I don't know. Trump's primary is indeed a deposition.
Yes. His life is a deposition. How are they going to schedule all the court cases? I mean, this is one footnote on all this stuff. His campaign finance report, everything is legal fees.
The whole campaign has been eaten by legal fees. No, you made this point a few weeks ago, and it's a really important one. It's not clear what his resources are actually going to be. There are two important resources in the campaign. One is money, and the other is time. And the most important is the candidate's time. Right, right. And he's going to be bound on both, although you suspect he's going to run those campaigns from the courthouse.
steps. Hey, one thing before we go to questions, I wanted to ask either of you guys, you know, Youngkin, there's still that dream that people in the eating with a fork and knife portion of the Republican Party. I know all 20 of them. Fred Thompson, he's going to do it. You know, they still hold out hope that he can come sweeping in at the end and save the
the party, but apparently a lot of it rests on his ability to claim huge gains in this legislative. Which nobody cares about, by the way. It's so dumb. This reminds me of the Colin Powell thing. When is he going to run? Look, guys who want to run, you can't hold them back. They rip faces off to run. The idea of the reluctant Hamlet, if he wanted to run, he'd be in it. But I wonder if these trend lines that we've seen nationally with heightened Democratic turnout
end up being a problem for him. It's something to watch. Let's take a short break and hear from our sponsors. Listener Mail
If you have a question for the hacks, all you got to do is email it to us. Hacks on tap at gmail.com. Hacks on tap at gmail.com. That goes to our crack staff in the Hacks on Tap Liberty Bunker where the questions are shuffled and amended to make us look better. And then they give them to us and we read them. And if you've had a question in the past, don't be afraid to send it back in. Sometimes we just have too many good questions and not enough time. Finally, don't forget to rate us on the fabulous blog.
rating devices at Spotify, Apple Podcasts, etc. It helps the algorithm shove us in front of new unsuspecting victims. And finally, don't forget to go to our book club right on the interweb, hacksontap.com slash book club for cool books that our guests are yours truly and my two confederates here have gleefully recommended as interesting reads for the erudite Hacks on Tap audience.
Good time to read Greg Blustein's book on how Georgia turned purple, just FYI. I'm absolutely recommending that book, and I do think this indictment
unlike some of the other indictments, will have real, real ramifications at a state level in Georgia. You know, a few weeks ago, McKinnon recommended this book, Mr. Texas by Lawrence Wright. It's a novel. Really, really good. It's out in September. I just read a galley of it. Really enjoyable, fun read. So I encourage you guys to read it. Yeah, I made a note on that one. Yep.
First question for the great Robert Gibbs from Patrick. Outside of Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris, who is the best positioned Democrat, given the circumstances, to run if Biden does change his mind? Gretchen Whitmer. Go ahead. Go ahead. Well, I'm one of the early members of the Gretchen Whitmer fan club. That's a pretty big club, man. It is. But you'll remember I had these conversations with you a few years ago.
So I've got the receipts to prove it. I will say, you know, the rap on Democrats heading into 2022 was there was no bench. The rap on them coming out of 22 is there's an enormous bench. Right. So let's think about there's a whole group of governors. Right. From Jared Polis in Colorado to as you you you you go eastward, you've got J.B. Pritzker in Illinois. Right.
You've got Gretchen Whitmer, who I've mentioned, but I'm going to mention her again because I think she's great. Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania. Murphy wants to run in New Jersey. Wes Moore in the Senate. You've got people like-
If he wins reelection, he's going to be projected into the national picture. He could. Roy Cooper in North Carolina. Oh, pygmies compared to Gina Raimondo. Keep going. Yeah. All right. But no, it's a huge bench. And I think it'll still be a huge bench because a number of those governors –
Shapiro, Westmore and others. Raphael Warnock, a senator from Georgia, obviously. Kelly. Kelly. Lots of folks that are going to, I think, assemble a good, strong Democratic bench for a really long time. All right. Mike Murphy, Drew wants to know, what if Trump wins the primary but is convicted before the convention? Will the GOP pick a new candidate like Youngkin or Kemp?
Do you think the Dems have a plan for running against a Youngkin or Kemp-like candidate? Wow, good question, Drew. I'll do the second half fast because it's easy. No, they don't have a plan and they ought to. Because, again, as you've heard a million times here, not so sure Trump's the nominee in the end. But the big question, Trump has the delegates.
But he is convicted. So we got to decide if we want a big city Democratic machine type jailhouse candidate or not. There is no GOP. There's no room with three guys in cowboy hats and big cigars that says, all right, make a change. That doesn't exist anymore. You have the Republican National Committee. You have a lot of delegates. You have complicated rules.
The Republican National Committee is made up of delegates, a relatively smaller number compared to the Democratic National Committee, which is enormous. Three from each state and a couple of honorifics. That committee is roughly a third to 40% old political bosses who would probably be up for dumping Trump, 20% Christian conservatives, TBD, and 40% super hardcore Trump till the end. And, you know, rough numbers. They want to win. Their grip is limited.
it would be one hell of a crazy thing. It would be like the Star Wars Parliament coming together to kind of sort out who the new emperor would be. And I'd have to talk to one of my rules gurus to kind of break down. I was in this situation in a gubernatorial race where the Republican nominee broke out and we had to put everybody in the state committee in a room and fight it out for nine hours. It was unbelievable, had a surprise outcome, who later became governor.
It also sank Senator Rudy Boschwitz, who it's a long story I'll tell on another episode. But what does that mean? The Republican, the Republican nominee broke out. I mean, wouldn't you just send them to a dermatologist? What are you talking about? No, no, no. It was John Grunsep, the family values candidate who had the affair with Miss Tractorpole that got all over the papers. Oh, yeah. So the guy we beat in the primary turned out to be the guy who put the PIs and spilled the scandal on him in the first place.
went in there and we had a third candidate. No time for venting here. Yeah, Bosch would show up. It was crazy. Grunseff was gone. And eventually Arnie Carlson, who had lost the primary, became the nominee and went on to beat Rudy Perpich. But that's Minnesota. Clean politics except not so clean. Anyway, so who knows? Who knows? Boy, fun to watch though. Terrifying. You got one for me? Yes, I do have one for you. That one is number nine from Dallas.
The big D wants to know, seeing prices and inflation go down and job numbers go up, does
But Biden's numbers on the economy stay soft, or it sounds like Al Gore's a bit, and even go down. Are modern polls really a good indicator of public sentiment, or is everything so polarized, Axe, that public opinion almost doesn't even matter? Everything that's going up should be going down. Yeah, we should play that tape. We're going to take everything that's upside down and make it right side up.
All right, boys, you're crowding me here. I'm giving you time to think. Listen, first of all, how the public reacts to economic conditions is a lagging indicator. So there has to be a sustained set of numbers that, particularly on inflation, that would contribute to that. But I do think...
that all of these numbers are somewhat intractable because we've become so tribal. We're listening to different accounts. If you watch some, if you watch Fox News, if you watch some right-wing media, you're
you get a much different picture of the direction of the country, of the state of the economy than you would if you're looking at some other sources. And so we've become deeply polarized. I do think that, you know, Biden needs to see some improvement in this number. I don't think, Mike, because of this polarization and because of the, you know, the Trump factor and so on, I'm not sure that the kind of standard indexes, indices of,
that we're accustomed to using like attitudes toward the economy are determinative. And Gibbs will remember- Particularly in this election. Romney was beating us on the economy in 2012, but Obama won on who fights for the middle class, and that turned out to be the most important number. So it's more complicated than that. And just looking at that one number doesn't tell the whole story.
Only thing I just tag on that is it looks like Biden's got a UAW strike coming, which is going to be big and painful after Labor Day. Exit question for both of you. One, in the next six months, do we see any sort of improvement in that number? And two, does it have to get bigger to win?
You sort of answered the last part, Hacks. Well, perception. Forget reality has to get better. And the interest rates are the pain point. And there's still a thing. And a big UAW strike will be very painful in the Midwest. So if I were Biden, I wouldn't count on big happy waves. Well, look, I think it needs to keep moving in the right direction. If there's backsliding,
That's bad because it makes it, it contributes to what I think is his major problem. I think it's unjustified, but the argument, and I've said it here before that Republicans like to make is that things are out of control and he's not in command. So if things start moving backwards on the economy, that is not, that is not good for him, but we shall see. I was with a bunch of economists. Yeah. I was with a bunch of economists a couple of weeks ago at some conference and the
the thing that struck me was they're about as bad at projecting as we are. So that was McCain's great old joke. He always used to say on the trail, I'm looking all over for a one-armed economist because with these guys I've got, it's always on the one hand or on the other. But, but, but X, you think at 41% he can still win based on the fact that this is not going to be in any sort of ordinary election. Yeah. I,
I mean, you know, look at the last couple of elections. We are in uncharted waters and, uh,
I think we just, we got to watch how this thing unfolds and we will, and we'll do it again next week. After the debate. After the debate. We'll get together after the debate to go over the highs and lows, who won and who lost. And was anyone watching? But please still tweet at Murphy about where the episode is on Tuesday. Cause it just gets under his skin and makes him yell at the kids in New Hampshire to get off his lawn. Or,
Urchins, move along. All right, boys. Good to be with you. See you later. Good to see you. Good to be back. Thank everybody for listening. See you guys later.