Musk, Mayors, and Moore (with Lis Smith)
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Hey, pull up a chair. It's Hacks on Tap with David Axelrod and Mike Murphy. Hello, everyone. I would like to take this opportunity to sincerely apologize for a statement that I made yesterday at my town hall.

See, I was in the process of answering a question that had been asked by an audience member when a woman who was extremely distraught screamed out from the back corner of the auditorium, "People are going to die." And I made an incorrect assumption that everyone in the auditorium understood that, yes, we are all going to perish from this earth.

So I apologize. And I'm really, really glad that I did not have to bring up the subject of the tooth fairy as well. There you have it, Mike Murphy, Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa, in one of the great acts of political self-immolation I've seen lately. She had a town hall meeting.

on Medicaid and the cuts that Congress is considering in Medicaid. Someone shouted out, people are going to die. She said, we're all going to die. She might have been able to finesse that or explain it, but instead she doubles down the next day. Man.

You've done a lot of Iowa politics. I don't think a lot of Iowans are going to love that. Well, no. I mean, and she did it with this weird hostage video choke shot thing, you know, looking into her phone, walking around. Senate Majority Leader Thune, I think, still has Dr. Feelgood on retainer. It might be time for the Senate helpers to help the good senator find her compass back to sanity.

Um, so I don't know how to explain it, but it's embarrassing. And she's had a, she's an interesting person. And I, I don't, I don't know how to unpack what what's going on in her mind, other than she doesn't like being yelled at a town hall meetings, but Hey, I was going to say you're on that train. Get ready to hear a whistle. Liz Smith, one of the great, uh, consultants in the democratic party, uh, a, uh,

Consigliere to some of the most promising young politicians in America. Good to see you. She's going to have to, and they're all going to have to get used to a lot of tough questions at town hall meetings as this budget reconciliation bill moves forward, isn't she? Aren't they? Yes, yes, they are. And to me, what sort of stood out about

this, you know, her initial comment and the failed walk back or joke, I guess, afterwards is how Trumpism doesn't really work without Trump. I think that a lot of these people try to go out and do the no apology thing to project strength. And instead, they just sort of look like tone deaf jerks. Found that video to be very odd, very off putting. I don't know. I think it's supposed to be funny, but it just lands with a thud. Yeah, it's creepy. It's creepy. And

You know, I've talked to David about this, but I think that Iowa is a really interesting state. You know, it's a place that Barack Obama won twice. And Democrats have just gotten cream there recently. But in 2026, we've got a lot of promising candidates, a lot of good races. Iowa's first district, Iowa's third district in the House. What about the Senate race, though? I don't see— And the Senate race—

Yeah, but who... Potentially. Yeah, I mean, there's... The question is, can someone rise who has the ability to break through and get treated seriously? Yeah, and is it a huge year where the...

Reality bends to punish the Republicans. You need a perfect storm there, but they have some candidates. Zach Walls, I think, is someone who's being thrown out as a potential candidate there who would probably be Democrats' strongest candidate there. But again, I think that we're going to have a really interesting roster of candidates for House, Senate.

governor there. And it is one of those states that I do want to keep an eye on because we can't Democrats should not just write off states like Iowa because they haven't been going our way recently. You don't think that losing 90 percent of the counties in the country is a

Is it a growth plan? No, no. You're luring the Trumpies into a false sense of security, and then like a mighty panther, you will pounce. Everything in moderation, Mike. That's been overdone. Next year is going to be one of these years, like 86 or maybe 94 on the our side, where you don't have to do a lot right to potentially win if the pieces all come together. So even the Democrats—

are going to get some lucky ones, including potentially in a statewide or two. That is what history would suggest. And the volatility of the Trump years is,

or these, I say years, it's only been months. It feels like years. Current course and speed, you'd think that. On this bill, on this tax bill, it's really a tax bill that has spending cuts appended because for procedural reasons they need, and for political reasons with their caucus, they need to do it. This Medicaid issue, Murphy,

How's it going? You know, you hear Republicans are saying, no, we're just taking it away from, you know, able-bodied people who can work and we're taking it away from illegal immigrants and we're taking it away from people who are unqualified. I mean, the budget folks say 7.3 or 7.6 or whatever it is, million others suggest more will lose that. I mean, can they define the fight in a way that

There's no pain associated with what they're doing? Well, it's the only thing they can do, you know, point the bound to the wave. Entitlement politics are tough. Everybody in America loves entitlements, free stuff from the government. Now, Medicaid is a big fraud thing.

And they're particularly on the state level. It's, you know, a co-program. And I mean, here in California, we're the Medicaid fraud champions of all human history. But that said, it's still taking away something people essentially like. And old Paul once told me,

Trying to do the right thing by cutting back waste and everything and work requirements on entitlements is like jumping into a swimming pool full of razor blades. It does not end well for elected politicians. So best thing they got is to make it about things people agree with that are micro. Oh, we're not going to let illegal gang members – there's going to be work. But that's –

That's hard. You know what I love? And it makes me feel good. And it makes me feel like we're meeting the promise of this podcast is every once in a while you slip back into your old Republican snarly. It's good that you certify it every now and then.

But I don't like it from a fiscal point of view. That Medicaid funds a lot of folks in nursing homes, that Medicaid supports people with disabilities. So go ahead. But this is funny because this is politics of 30 years. Never let Liz get in. It's double straw man.

Republicans put on their eye shades and say they waste a ton of money as riddle or fraudics. And we're right. Democrats do their straw man, which is right now there's a Congressional Medal of Honor winner in a nursing home who will starve to death because Republicans. And that might happen, too. So the straw men are both kind of true.

The test of whether they're straw men or not is what you can produce. You can't just say that things you don't like are waste, fraud and abuse. Yeah. But would you argue that Medicaid is? No, I think there's not a program in in government and probably not a program in major businesses that can't be more efficient, that can't be more, you know, more exacting. I.

I have no doubt about that. But this isn't being dictated by that. This is being dictated by the fact that they have to find a bunch of money to offset tax cuts. And frankly, Liz, if Donald Trump had the balls and the juice to force through what he suggested publicly, which was...

Just moving the tax bracket for people who are making two and a half million dollars or more back to where it was four years ago before his tax cuts. If they just did that, that would be a masterstroke. But he couldn't do it because Mike Johnson said, no, we can't pass that bill.

Yeah, doing that and closing the carried interest loophole. I think Democrats would be smart to maybe even take up some of those policies. It would have been broadly, maybe not politically popular with some of the donor base of Republicans, or maybe not with Mike Johnson, but I think with the broad public, yes, very popular. Let me just add on to what Axelrod said. I cannot believe it is 2025 and Mike Murphy is staking out a position to the right of Josh Hawley on Medicaid. Look, I'm to the right of Josh Hawley on everything.

Well, not everything. Well, fair enough. But no, no, no. He's a cheap populist on it. You cannot be for massive tax cuts and not offsetting cuts. And Holly's trying to have it both ways because he's a cheap demagogue. But keep going. Yeah. I think he's also—

He's also a political realist, right? He realizes that now a lot of Republican voters, a lot of Trump voters also like Medicaid. There's been a political realignment where they do have a lot of working class voters. They do have a lot of voters who depend on programs like Medicaid and the old fractures, the old ideological lines don't quite work. I do think that the argument on this is going to be pretty.

Simple for Democrats, which is if they keep these in, Republicans are making deep cuts to Medicaid to fund or cuts to Medicaid to fund tax cuts for rich people. It's not more complicated by that than that. Well, it's not more complicated by that in the Democratic argument. The Republican argument would be all this stuff X went through before. Net-net, I think the Dems will score more points on this because Americans are addicted to entitlements and the Republicans, as a conservative, this infuriates me,

We're not honest about you have to have some responsibility for debt spending. And, you know, it's kind of interesting to me. The first real political opposition to Trump is over this deficit spending, you know, in the Senate and to some extent in the House where people are actually saying no too much. And it's the first time. It's interesting. That's the playing field they want to fight on.

I agree, and I want to talk about that. You're right that you need to offset these expenditures, these tax expenditures, these tax cuts, but one way to do it would be to do

What Trump suggested and, you know, simply raise the tax rate back to where it was in 2016 for people making over two and a half million dollars. You'd have to spend you'd have to pay a few more dollars, Murphy, but that's OK. No, I let the first one go. I'm for I'm for letting the come back for everybody.

You know, it's the Democratic thing is let's find a group that's a small percentage and hang the taxes on them constantly. No, it's this percentage. Yeah, you guys are playing a poll game here. That's $1.1 trillion for people who— But bring it back for everybody. People want to know that stuff costs money. You get the check, you pay the taxes. Let's have this—I'd love to have this debate. I'd love to see this debate.

Democrats, the point Democrats should be making is we should absolutely renew these tax cuts for working people across this country, given what inflation has done to them and what Trump's tariffs are going to do to them. The last thing they need is a bigger tax bill. But for people who have profited off of all of this.

Oh, God. Okay. All right. Run. Who are making $2.5 million a year. A few thousand extra bucks in taxes isn't going to hurt them. No, it'll work. Okay. All right. Okay. No, no. It'll work politically. I just felt good. That was therapeutic. No, no, no. It's class warfare. I appreciate it. It's the blood that courses through the veins of the Democratic Party. It is the reality.

Why is it class warfare? Because everything you guys say is... When all the benefits and policies flow to the people who are already advantaged, that's not class warfare. But when you say, hey, you know what? You guys who have done really, really well can pay a few more bucks so we don't have to cut Medicaid as dramatically as we're discussing. Yeah. That becomes class warfare. I don't get that. Yes.

I think it's appealing to their sense of

patriotism that this country has given them a lot. They've benefited from the fruits of this country and as such, they should pay, pay a little bit more than they have to currently. And that will help us reduce the deficit, help us reduce the debt. And I think it's a win-win for everyone. But I'll tell you on this deficit issue, the guy who, the guy who landed a blow on his way out the door was none other than Mr. Doge himself, Elon Musk. Let's take a listen to that.

So, you know, I was like disappointed to see the massive spending bill, frankly, which increases the budget deficit, not just decrease it. And it reminds the work that the Doge team is doing. I actually thought that when this big, beautiful bill came along, I mean, like everything he's done on Doge gets wiped out in the first year.

I think a boat can be big or it can be beautiful. I don't know if it can be both. My personal opinion. Yeah, as predicted a million times, the romance has ended. This was the most obvious going to happen thing in the history of the world. It lasted a little longer than I thought it would.

And I thought there was an interesting – That's what $400, $200 billion or whatever he has will do for you. You can prolong the romance. Well, it's shrinking quickly as the Tesla brand gets crushed. But you see the European sales figures? It's unbelievable. They might as well be selling asbestos underwear. Yeah.

What's interesting, you see the Jared Isaacson thing? Maggie had a story. He's a friend of mine. He's a good guy. They finally had a really good Trump appointee. It would have been perfect for NASA. But buddy of Elon, zap, suddenly he's not qualified. It's unbelievable. So there's no doubt that under the surface, bad feelings. No doubt. They found that he had given...

That's not true. Contributions to Democrats. They apparently knew that from the beginning. Yeah, that's my point. I have, let's just put it this way. I have a lot of knowledge about this one, and they totally knew. They totally knew. No, no. It's just get Elon. Now the little high school stuff starts in the White House. Not shocking with this crowd. Yeah. Now, it also came in the week, Elon left in the week that the Times reported about what sounded like

out of control drug use on his part, which wasn't exactly shocking when you saw him leaping out there with his chainsaw and

He's lucky he still has his fingers. Yes. We're lucky we still have ours. When you get blasted, one thing you don't want is a chainsaw. They don't mix. Yeah. And there's plenty of reporting on this before he got entangled with the Trump campaign. And I'm not really sure what they expected getting into bed with that ketamine addled eccentric billionaire who single handedly wants to repopulate the earth.

But it's doing an OK job, too. I got a hand of credit there. He has prolific reproducer. But I do think that this is the first but probably not the last Fisher we're going to see between them. And it is, again, one of the more predictable storylines in politics right now. You know, the sub story I'm a little obsessed with a lot of the house guys three months ago, but oh, Elon's key to the midterms is going to spend a lot of money saving our. I think, yeah, Elvis has left that building.

We'll see. A lot can happen between now and then. He may need a few things that he— Well, the biggest thing he needs is the Senate not to murder this IRA stuff. It's going to slaughter him. And there's an interesting movement now that why do we force car companies, when they don't hit a mission standard, to buy credits from Elon, his most lucrative business? Shouldn't that money go into an infrastructure fund or something? So I predict more trouble for Tesla.

Yeah, I also think politically it's just a mixed bag because we saw that in Wisconsin where he spent a lot of money. Then he becomes the center of the campaign. And he's very unpopular. You know, he is now very unpopular with with the larger voting populace. And he's got a 70 percent unfavorable in California. If he wanted to help his numbers.

And the thing he should be out there doing is championing that thing that you call class warfare and saying, yeah, we are. We are. I like me. No, I just think it's good politics and it would be good politics. I don't I don't question that. It would be smart for him, by the way, on the ketamine reference that you make, Liz.

I do want to say that there are people who use ketamine for whom it's been therapeutically important. So I don't want to. Oh, absolutely. Oh, absolutely. Absolutely. You can also abuse it. And apparently he's his medicine. Quite, quite full with other enhancements. Right. And the reporting we've read about him suggests that he is abusing it. I do recognize that there are legitimate uses. And it does say something about Trump.

that he would essentially appoint a guy co-president for a while as he was going through all of this stuff. I mean, it's a little alarming and it does raise questions about. It's almost like Trump is transactional, you know? Yeah. I mean, wow. We always break news here. It's good. That's it. We have a little corner called It's Obvious. Okay, let's take a break right here for a word from our sponsor and we'll be right back.

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But speaking of erratic figures in government, interesting thing with RFK Jr. Yes. Last week, he, you know, I mean, they kind of tried to slip the goods through customs at the hearings with assurances that he wasn't going to mess with vaccines, though he has been. That was the whole theme. You know, we'll keep him under. He won't do anything crazy. We promise.

And here we are. Yes. And he announced, apparently not in concert with the CDC, that the CDC would no longer recommend COVID shots for healthy children and pregnant women. They then, at the end of the week, released their guidance, which was somewhat more circumspect than what he announced.

But he also, in service of trying to explain the whole thing, went on the arena with Casey Hunter. This is the gold here. This is a classic tape. This is just a piece of what turned out to be an agonizing confrontation with video that

That he had to go. He's going to be on ketamine. Let's let's hear this. You have gained notoriety for your skepticism about vaccines. And over the summer in an interview, you said, quote, there's no vaccine that is, you know, safe and effective. Do you still believe that? I never said so. Stop me. We have the clip. Please play the clip. I just talked about that. The media slanders you by calling you an anti-vaxxer. And you've said that you're not anti-vaccine. You're pro safe vaccine.

Difficult question. Can you name any vaccines that you think are good? I think some of the live virus vaccines are probably averting more problems than they're causing. There's no vaccine that is, you know, safe and effective. Yeah, there were several other points at which he said he never said something and she produced the video. Videotape is a is a.

vicious thing, man, when it comes back and smacks you in the face. But the fact of the matter is that there's a ton of things to undermine vaccine usage in this country. And it's animated by falsehoods and conspiracy theories. And it's dangerous. And this is one of the wheels that can fall off here.

So that was a transactional appointment to Mike. I mean, he was he wanted his endorsement. RFK Jr. does have a following, you know, among some segment of on the Internet and in the community. And Trump made the deal. Yeah. I mean, there's no bottom. I mean, here we are. I mean, look at look at the some of the.

This vaccine thing, I mean, we laugh about it. I laugh about it because it's so blatantly obvious, but it's having a real world impact, just like the USAID cuts. I mean, just to tag Elon for a minute, what Doge did to USAID, David Brooks made this argument on PBS the other night. You can directly say it's going to kill 100,000 people.

pulling some of the, I'm much more interested in those programs because they're, that's a mismanaged agency too, but those are really effective programs and it's going to kill people. There are, there are efficiencies to be found everywhere. There are stupid things everywhere and you ought to go after them, but you don't do that with a chainsaw. And that was, that was performative. Right. Particularly where American food aid is rotting on ships close to starving kids.

So literally people are going to die because of the clown show dress up and play spending cuts that. And what irritates me is somebody wants to see government spending less. I hate it when our cause is besmirched by corrupt idiots who go out and do damage in the name of something that can be done well. And this USAID thing and Google, Google Brooks, because David Brooks is very good on this. And it is horrible.

Yeah, I'll tell you, that decision to basically end foreign aid as we know it in the world will turn out to be one of the worst foreign policy, national security and public health decisions in the history of the country, because it's going to pay off in terms of disease that travels back here. It's going to pay off in terms of

Terrorism. It's going to pay off. You know, I mean, it just it just goes. No, it's it's relentlessly stupid, like so much of what they do. But it was good politics, I'm sure, in their mind, because Americans. Well, that's them. Everything good politics. You know, throwing eight year olds in the back of patrol cars from ICE. Good politics. Well, we'll see how long. But, yeah, that's how they operate.

It's stupid. It's cruel. But I do want to bring this back to RFK Jr. for a second. Yeah, please. Because one thing that was really frustrating to me as someone who led... You did a lot of work on him, didn't you? I did. I did. And that interview you just played, it was actually from December 2023, but it goes viral every few months because it was a classic of the genre. Casey did a masterful job throwing RFK Jr.'s words back at him. And he's like a really slippery guy in these interviews. He just goes out and just spews...

completely made up things. But it's really hard when someone in an interview says, oh, well, 300 studies link autism to vaccines. You know, how are you going to necessarily combat that? What she did was went back, really went at him with videos and said,

I think that's why it was really fascinating this last week when they released that Maha report and it turned out it was generated by AI and AI had generated fake links for it. And it was like sort of a great metaphor for RFK and Maha and everything that all of it is built on bullshit. Um, and the other thing with RFK that is always, um,

sort of bothered me is that a lot of his campaign to be HHS secretary was built on smoke and mirrors. Oh, I'm doing it because I want to make America healthy again. I want to get food dyes out of our food, seed oils out of our foods. And that was really just like a smoke screen for his real agenda, which is undermining vaccines. And, you know, for decades now, he's been a leading voice against vaccines. He was the top super spreader of misinformation about vaccines during, um,

COVID. And he's someone who's profited handsomely off it, made millions of dollars off of it. So that was always going to be his real agenda. This vaccine thing just is like so disturbing to me. But I have two questions. One is,

Do you think that there—now, you see these, you know, measles outbreaks. There'll be other things that come along here, and diseases that we thought we had conquered will have a new life. Do you think that has political implications?

I mean, there are things that he says. The thing that makes him effective is that he is a very anti-corporate voice and there are abuses. I mean, hyper hyper processed foods. And so a lot of that stuff does make us less healthy, does make our kids obese, does all of that. I mean, everybody jumped on Mike Bloomberg when he was talking about it. But there is an audience out there.

For that. So so he mixes bullshit with something that that people feel is real. Absolutely. Sorry. I just you know, I spent a year studying this guy. So I'm going to assert some privilege here. But there absolutely is an element of truth to some of this and that our people.

You know, our kids are getting sicker. Our kids are being fed worse food. We do have an epidemic of chronic illness in this country. So he's taking that. And he's also taking legitimate concerns about some of our reliance on experts. You know, people... I think...

saw some of the perils of just following experts during COVID, right? And we saw experts lead us down a path that they followed the data on viruses and epidemiology and didn't look at the data on what really prolonged school closures would do to the mental health of our kids. And so people think that because we were fed bad information then, that maybe we should just throw out all the information we get.

from the experts. And I think Democrats need to reckon with the fact that we did sow some distrust among people, Democrats, Republicans, independents, by embracing some of these policies like, you

you know, school closures that lasted too long. And that, that then did push some people into, into seeking alternate voices like RFK Jr. Right. But people aren't innocent. People can be stupid and, and, you know, they don't, they don't get a prize for that. Experts are often imperfect, but they're much better than anything else. When you are fighting a pandemic and,

You want to err on the side of therapeutic overkill because if it wildfires out, you're in real, real trouble. So, yeah, they were overcautious on the schools because they were being generically overcautious. They didn't know. We hadn't had one a long time. We didn't have the data reporting tools. So this rearview mirror thing on experts, I'm big.

big opponent of. I agree that. Well, it's all tied in with with kind of the populist uprising. But I'll tell you something on the school closing. If we're being completely honest, I agree with you. And I look, I don't want I don't want politicians deciding how we handle a public health crisis in

based on what they think the politics of the moment require. I want them to save lives and I want, you know, I want them to balance interests as well. But what happened there was the thing that I think frustrates people is that by the time the fall of 2021 rolled around, there was plenty of evidence that you could reopen schools. And a lot of the reason that they weren't was because of pressure, frankly, from teachers unions and other groups that, that, uh,

the white house yielded to in the spring and fall summer and fall of two. Exactly. Yep. I'm agree. I totally agree. And we know that now, and that'll affect the protocol going forward. It's just, it's hard to have magic vision in the moment and you want to always air the

safety and protection. The government's a brute force organization. Before it gets smarter, it's always going to err on what it knows. And so that we learned. And that's what happens in these things. Okay, then let's take a break right here and we'll be right back.

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Let's get on to the Westmore and most importantly, New York mayor race. Westmore was down in South Carolina at a gathering there. I think of African-American Democratic leaders. Mike Waltz was down there, too, who apparently is thinking about running a comeback in national politics. We don't have to talk about that. Yeah, he picked a fight with Harris out here in California. We had to talk about it at the state convention. But let's do West first. Right now.

We are being called on to act and to lead. The people want a growing middle class and they cannot wait. The people want access to work and wealth and they cannot wait.

The people want to feel safe in their own communities and safe in their own skin, and they cannot wait. The people want access to health care that is accessible and affordable and a basic human right, and they cannot wait.

The people want good schools that are supporting our educators. And they want schools that are teaching our young people how not just to be employees, but also how to be employers. And they cannot wait. Liz, you are a big student of talent out there, a big promoter of talent out there. Where do you think Wes Moore fits in the picture for 2028? And is he saying things that others aren't?

Uh, or is he, uh, you know, where does he on the conventionality scale? Where does he fit? Yeah. I mean, I mean, he's top tier talent. Um, uh,

in terms of just the superficial aspects, like he's got it all, you know, he's great looking, great looking family, great speaker, inspirational story, but he also, and if that was all you needed, then Murphy and I would be president. Stay tuned. I also think he's done some interesting things as governor, you know, some of his initiatives on helping young men in the state, his really big focus on reducing,

reducing crime in Baltimore. And his laser focus on that, I think, has been undercovered and really impressive. And so I think that he's a really interesting voice. He's someone I'd like to hear more of. And

a lot of Democrats are going to respond positively to the message there that like the time for like hemming and hawing is done. We need real action. And I do think that there are this is where it helps to be an executive. If you're a governor, if you're a mayor, you have a lot more ability to go out and take action, especially if you're a governor in a trifecta state like Democratic trifecta state like Maryland is the top four contender or maybe top 10.

I probably am not following it as closely as you guys, but I would say he would be in the top 10. Yeah. You know, certainly in the top 10. Here's the thing. People ask me this question all the time. And they say, like, who do you think will be? Who do you like? And yeah, there are talents like him. And there are many others. But the thing that I think people don't assess and can't assess three years out is

what exactly is the market looking for in 2028? You know, we tend to sit on the bus and we look backwards and we respond to what happened last. Always, always. And the process defines them, too. They've got to go participate in it. And the calendar will be a big part of his equation in South Carolina because the African-American factor in the primary is a huge one, somewhat based on calendar. Yeah.

I'd be stunned if South Carolina was the first. Yeah. And I think they can reorder that. I think, yeah, a new state may come up and we've talked about it. But I think the hunger for action and this bigger thing, which is, you know, I said to all my Democratic friends, whether you like it or hate it, Donald Trump's doing a teardown.

And the question isn't whether the question is, what are you going to build? And are you going to be just the party of restoration and say, we're going to put everything back the way it was? That's the losing hand. And they may do that. Or are you going to be the party of renewal and say, you know what? Yeah, we're going to build something better, more responsive to the voices of people, more resistant to the influences that have pervasive pervaded our politics, uh,

Held together by the mighty glue of class warfare. I couldn't resist a callback. I really think the moment...

You know, talking about twenty twenty eight, I really do think it's ripe for a Barack Obama type of moment for a change candidate who's anti establishment, who sort of runs against the status quo special interest. But but in a center left lane, you know, to too often in our party, the people who are seen as anti establishment, who run as anti establishment are from a far left party.

from the far left wing. And they have a natural ceiling. Hard politics. We're hacks here. After Kamala Harris, African-American nominee, plus minus or doesn't matter for the Democrats. Well, I think that there'll be those who will be nervous about it. For sure. There'll be those who'll be nervous about it, whether that

prevents him. Listen, nobody thought Barack Obama could be there was a lot of resistance, even in the black community when he started running, because they didn't think a black guy could get elected president. And then he won the Iowa caucuses and all of a sudden the calculus changed. So how people perform is

You know, I think the greatest test for all of these people is when you when you're put under the microscope of a presidential race, which is so much more intense than any you've ever faced.

Are you who you present yourself to be? Are you authentic? Are you real? And that is, to me, the hardest test for a candidate. I think that's the test that Kamala Harris had a hard time with. She was great off the sheet music, bad at improvisation, and it ticked a bunch of bullshit meters off. But I think headwinds myself. Yeah.

Yeah, well, that's true. There's no doubt about that. Barack kind of had tailwinds once he got going because I think people were rooting for the idea. But that's kind of done now with her. Trust me, brother. I was there. There was the skepticism.

Of course, particularly at the beginning, I remember. People would laugh at me when I'd predict Obama was going to be the nominee because Hillary had the organization. But anyway, let's get to New York. And I would say people would say, you must be listening to that idiot Mike Murphy. No, no, believe me. I remember. Remember that we were on Meet the Press with James and Mary, and I was predicting it, and it was funny. I'll give Carville credit. So on camera, oh, no, Hillary's got the organization. And the minute the camera's off, he goes, if that horse can—

start to run in Iowa, he's going to be the nominee. Carville saw it coming too. I was just dumb enough to say it on television. But Liz, Big Apple.

It looks to me like the Star Wars bar scene here is running for mayor. And we have this interesting guy, and I'm going to mangle his name, Zoran Mamid. I don't have my cheat sheet in front of me. Mamdani. Mamdani, thank you. Zoran Mamdani. He's running an impressive campaign. Now, he's a hard lefty, but he appears to be moving up fast to me. But it is ranked choice voting. So, you know, you pick your top five. So what do we think? One, do you have a candidate in it? We should probably ask you that.

I don't. Okay. So one of the interesting things here is Trump's role in all of this. He's interposed himself here. He paroled the mayor. He gave probation to the mayor, who's now, you know, his guy, though he doesn't like to present himself that way. He also opened an investigation. And, you know, the Justice Department slash RNC opened an investigation of

I guess they should call it the DOJ slash RNC, opened an investigation of Andrew Cuomo, who is the frontrunner in the race and who Trump wants to beat. And this is what Cuomo did with it. Let's listen to this ad. First, they arrested a liberal judge in Wisconsin. Trump administration's latest assault on American liberty. Then a Democratic congresswoman in New Jersey. Then they went after New York's attorney general.

Now they're attacking Andrew Cuomo to interfere with New York City's election. Why? Because Andrew Cuomo is the last person they want as mayor. An experienced leader will stand up to bullies, bring New York back, and deliver for the people of this city. If Donald Trump doesn't want Andrew Cuomo as mayor, you do. I thought Mike Murphy, as an old ad maker like myself, I thought that was strategically really, really smart.

Yeah, you want to surf off Trump when you can, although all the data I see is even – and I've been in some Democrat focus groups lately. They're – how do I put it? They're kind of trumped out. Yeah, yeah, we hate him. What are you going to do for me? So I thought he played the chord right there. There's a New York Times story today about everybody's ads. If you look at the throw weight, it's the other stuff.

that seems to be having more traction than a couple of them have tried, particularly Lander, I think, to jump on the Trump thing. I'm interested in Mondami because he is a little atypical. He's crafty, good on social media, spending more on it as a ratio than the others. I think with ranked choice, he probably won't make it because I don't know how many second and third choices that

you know, let's just call them cold on Israel candidate will do there when some of the smaller ones get crushed out. But Liz, you're there. What, what, what's your, what give us to your horse race handicap right now? Yes. Well, I, I think that, and Andrew Cuomo is the favorite. Um, I, uh,

I think that is really, really depressing for Democrats here and for any Democrat across the country who's looking for, you know, a 2024 palate cleanser or a ray of hope from this race, because Cuomo sort of combines the worst aspects of a Biden candidacy and a Trump

candidacy all in one. You know, he combines all the ethical issues, the baggage of a Trump and all of the, you know, forward looking things, which is that he's not I don't think anyone thinks Andrew Cuomo is running to make New York City better. He's running because he wants to restore

you know, help his image and to and to do a vengeance tour against all of his enemies, all the people he think unfairly and kicked him out of office. He's introduced no energy, no new ideas to this race. And he's wouldn't that be the way I don't I'm not watching the race as closely as I should. But isn't that the obvious response that to sort of cast him as a Trumpian figure?

I mean, to me, it is. I'm blissfully not involved with any New York City races this cycle. It has been great for both my physical and mental health. But yeah, I think it would be. But another really depressing thing about this that brings in sort of the worst aspects of the Biden candidacy is that he's being backed by Democratic special interests, whether it's the sort of

rich business guys who are aligned with Democrats and, you know, the more old school unions. He's being backed by a lot of the Democratic establishment who just like sort of, you know, doesn't want to rock the boat, wants to go with the likely winner. And so there are a lot of forces that are coming together to help propel him into office. And I don't think it is going to end well for New Yorkers. He also he also benefits from the fact that Democrats right now are feeling anemic and

and weak and, you know, Cuomo look, Cuomo looks muscular, you know, so that, that helps him.

And he benefits from what Murphy said, which is that his main opponent is Zoran Mamdani, who, let me be clear, is extremely talented, extremely charismatic, does have a lot of energy, is injecting a lot of new ideas into the race. The problem is that those new ideas will not have a broad base of support. Yeah, that's where rank choice kills him, right? Right. Because he's an island of one.

Public safety, things like that are still really, really important to New Yorkers. And, you know, this is a guy whose platform might not explicitly say defund the police, but in policy, it does back those sorts of policies. But do you think any of the others in the primary of his shot, or it's down to those two, Cuomo's a favorite, which is what I'd say, though. I think in the first choice stuff, you know, Mondani's racking up the poll number quickly and primaries move fast.

Well, we'll have two debates. And I think that's really the last opportunity for anyone. And the thing about these debates is because of public financing and because Andrew Cuomo is taking public financing, he has to participate in them. He can't do the Trump thing, which I'm sure he would have done had he not taken public financing. And so that could be the opportunity for another voice to rise. And again, this goes back to what we were saying with twenty twenty eight.

Like, this is another race where there is such a lane for a change reform oriented anti-establishment center left Democrat, you know, in the mold of Barack Obama in 2008. I told him to run, but, you know, he hates New York. Chicago guy. No one sees that lane. And so then we have a bad choice.

between a dinosaur, corrupt, ethically challenged Democrat like Andrew Cuomo and a socialist. Yeah. So the dinosaur wins thanks to rank choice, though it's close on the first ballot. So now dinosaur Cuomo is out there in the frying pan for a while. The progressives are all pissed because they're, you know, there's Tiger Beat cover candidate. Mondani doesn't get it.

Does Adams have now some long shot? He's running as an independent, the mayor. You know, he's Trump's buddy in New York City where Trump got about 30 percent of the vote. But still, Cuomo, far from perfect. Is there any shot at all or is it a done deal? Well, I think what would be interesting is if Zoran Mamdani then runs on a third party line, on the Working Families Party line. Right, which he has.

Right. So that could that could upend the whole race. I don't really see much of a path for Eric Adams. But if Cuomo wins, I do think you'll see some Cuomo's created a third party line himself. Yeah. Yeah. So this will be a primary in June and then a general in November. And that will be shaped by these external changes.

I can tell you how we fix this. The Charter Commission there is a good chance it's going to put top two primaries on the ballot to let independents open it up a little. Right now it's ranked choice, but the primary is closed. So there are a million independent voters in New York who have to wait for the general. So who knows? We can have kind of an interesting referendum. Yeah, like the California system, top two. It would open it up a lot.

Which I think would be good for New York. One last bit of Democrat potential candidate news. We had the California State Convention. Tim Walz was out here. Kamala Harris sent a video and there was some talk about why isn't she here if she's running for governor. And Walz took a little poke at her.

And so the California political gossip world is boiling over with Kamala people going at Walls for that. So we could have a little Peyton Place thing break out here. Well, I think Walls is definitely running for president because it was kind of a kind of a ballsy move at a California Democratic Convention. Take a poke at her and how he's going to hear about it. Hmm. Very, very teed off Kamala people. A lot of reporters trying to chase on the record quotes about it because they'd love the fight.

But elbows are starting to get thrown a little here in this Democratic thing. It's a nomination worth having. You like that too, don't you? Well, you know, who knows? I voted Democrat last year. Maybe I'll be in the primary. It remains to be seen.

Well, if you do, can you still do the podcast? I'm sure I'll get a special dispensation. I'm still a right-wing nut. I just can't take the GOP. I'm not signing up for Team Socialist either, so I'll continue to irritate you with my conservatory opinions. Mike, I want to put your mind at ease. I don't think Team Socialist is looking for your membership either.

We agree on that. Yeah. All right. All right. Real quick, Liz, there was the lieutenant governor in New York who was appointed by the governor to fill a vacancy after her last lieutenant governor ran into some legal problems. Will that be a race? Does Governor Hochul have a race? Antonio Delgado, the former congressman now running for it in the primary against her in 2026. So.

So Delgado is he's really interesting backstory, really talented politician. He won in a tough seat in 2018. And he was an interesting pick upstate right in the Hudson Valley. It's sort of the district that Pat Ryan represents now in Congress. But.

It's you know, I think it's going to be a very big uphill climb. Traditionally, insurgent campaigns do not do well on the statewide level. Look at Zephyr Teachout against Cuomo in 2014. Look at Cynthia Nixon against Cuomo in 2018. I worked on that race and there was a lot of buzz around both of them. And, you know, both of their candidacies fell flat, I suspect.

Delgado's campaign will go the way of those candidacies just because, you know, Hochul for all of her issues is raising just gobs and gobs of money. And as the incumbent governor, you just have so many institutional advantages. And we've already seen a lot of just in one day, a lot of people come out and endorsing Hochul. So I think it's going to be tough to challenge her in the primary. Bambi versus Godzilla. I'd bet on the gov.

If Cuomo gets elected mayor, he's obviously not happy with her. Would he fly in there into that race? I mean, not to run for governor, but endorse against her. If it's close at the end, I'll bet he would.

You know what? He's the guy for all the talk about him being strong. That guy is is does not like to put his political capital on the line like that. He's very cautious about his endorsement. So I don't really see him doing that. He has no real ties to Delgado. And there are rumors right now that Hochul may endorse Cuomo in the mayoral race. So if she does that, if she does that, I would be that would answer the question. Yeah, she would do that to head off any chance of him doing that. So, you know, we'll see. Let's

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As I've said before, that AI replica of your voice is uncanny. It's good. It really is good. Yeah. One day I'm going to just move to the islands and it'll take over. Here we are on voicemail for Axelrod from Leona. Hi, this is Leona from Massachusetts. Can't we use Jake Tapper's book to expose Trump's continuing mental decline?

And have a big dialogue about that instead of just saying bad things about Tapper's book. Use it to expose Trump. Thanks a lot. I love your program. Bye. I heard a little Massachusetts in there, Leona. I'm happy you're a listener. Thanks for the question. Christopher L. Tapper's book, it is a good book. I've read it. I know he's taken a lot of crap for promoting it heavily, but it's actually a book that I think

It covers a bunch of history that's important. Now, I don't think that, and Liz, you can chime in on this, there's this notion that somehow, unless you repudiate Biden and say, I knew that that is the absolute ante to be a candidate in 2028, I'm not sure this is what we're going to be talking about in 2028.

You know, and I say that as someone who was pretty early on the Biden shouldn't run dialogue or campaign. But in terms of Trump, it's interesting because he you know, they're all kind. I mean, he says things that are batshit crazy all the time, but he doesn't pay a huge price for it, partly because I think he says it with such conviction and force.

And so people don't associate it with, you know, decline or dementia. They just associate it with Trump. Will that change over time? I mean, he's going to be 79 years old. We're having a big parade to celebrate it, apparently. So maybe maybe that will change. But I do think that the fact that he is 79 years old speaks to a point that Tapper's book underscores, which is this a really hard job. And.

And it's not hard for an old guy in particular. It's not a job for people. It ages you like in dog years. And it's not a job for old dogs. I think it will be a thing for Trump. I agree. He does everything of gusto. So it's cover. Well, Biden appeared doddering, which killed him. But age is now a thing. Biden created that as a category of discussion for president. So I think next year, as we build to the elections, we'll

it'll become more of a thing for Trump because it's true. Liz, what do you think about this relative to Democrat candidates in 28? Yeah, I don't.

I think it's a relevant question for people right now to talk about how they can. Yes, to handle that situation. Twenty twenty eight is a lifetime away. And I think twenty twenty eight should and will be about the future, not about Joe Biden. I do think as a party, we need to talk about how we prevent that from happening again. And, you know, the institutional forces and the party loyalty forces that sort of led us all to sort of.

Let us all minus David Axelrod and a few others to embrace this mass delusion. But I don't think that it's going to be the major litmus test of 2028. No, but I think probably being not 80 years old will be a requirement. Yes. You want to be a contrast. You know, you want to be young, future vision, rebuild the party guy. Yeah. Yeah. I do think that age is going to be important. Right. And that Democrats...

I think Democrats have always done best when we're the party that looks and sounds like the future. And we should really maybe get behind that in 2028 and not have a candidate who's going to be in their 80s or even their 70s, you know, when they're president and look to sort of the next generation. For sure. Mike Murphy, Craig.

He name-checks you, so you have to take this question. I'd appreciate your read on the 2028 Republican nominee for president. Has J.D. already revealed himself as too much of an unpopular weasel to ascend to the throne? Has little Marco shrunk along with his honor to near invisibility? Does DeSantis' wife have a better shot than he does?

Is Murphy priming for a run? What's the coming month's augur, oh sagacious soothsayers? I have to say that may be the best written question that we've ever had. Yeah, Craig, you're the new bard and thank you for the question. I think Weasley Times demand a Weasley president. So I think J.D. Vance is the current frontrunner knowing that the sands may change. We have a bad midterm forecast.

and a Trump tariff economic spiral and everything, the chrome plating on J.D. Vance now could very well rust away and it might be channel changing time. There are no shortage of people who want to do it. As for my plan, stay tuned. I will say that I've always loved the idea of filing in the New Hampshire primary and making a documentary about running under the slogan, eliminate the middleman.

So we stay tuned. Stay tuned. I have this. This is completely a digression, but I have a cartoon that I picked up years ago sitting on my desk. And it's two characters.

consultants backstage looking at the guy on the stage and one guy saying to the other, oh my God, he's giving the white collar speech to the blue collars. So anyway, our worst nightmare. So Liz,

Jen asks, in what ways has Senator Murphy been increasing his, that's Chris Murphy from Connecticut, increasing his national profile following President Trump's reelection? And how might this relate to speculation about a potential 28 presidential bid? And before you answer, we have a little tape. I was interested the other day. He was asked about this Joni Ernst thing. And, you know, he's pretty artful.

Let's listen to that, and that will be the lead-in to your wisdom as you think of it. When you lose your health care, you are much more at risk of early death. And when rural hospitals close because of this bill, when drug treatment clinics close in Iowa and rural America because of this bill, more people will die at a younger age. So why...

the reality is this bill is about life and death. And for what? I mean, I guess that's the problem here for many of us is that they're cutting Medicaid, throwing 15 million people off their health care in order to fund a tax cut for the super wealthy and for corporations. That is just fundamentally immoral. So there you have it. What do you think?

Yeah, I agree. Very artful answer. And I've generally been pretty impressed by him. I think Democrats would have been wise to follow his advice in 2024 to try to right this ship on the immigration issue and go on offense against Trump a little bit more and his role in killing the bipartisan border bill.

He helped negotiate that border bill. He did. Yes, he did. As he did the only gun bill that's passed in like decades. Gun safety bill. So we have seen him sort of ramping up his activity. You know, he's opened a super PAC. He's been doing a lot of producing a lot of content that has been going viral online. We've even seen him in stories saying, hey, maybe Democrats got a little too aggressive.

absolutist on issues like guns and it hurt us in red states, red areas, and we shouldn't have a down the line litmus test for people to agree on every gun control measure with me in order to run for Senate. So he has been making a lot of interesting moves. And I think that in 2028, there's not like

a penalty for people like there used to maybe be 20 years ago or 30 years ago, where being seen as too ambitious and too out there too early was a bad thing. There is a hunger for that. I do think a lot of rank and file Democrats are looking for voices who will lead us out of the wilderness. And I don't think there's any harm in someone going out and testing the water and seeing if

You know, there is an audience for their message. He's doing something that I think a lot of Democrats hunger for right now. I mean, he is challenging the corruption that we've seen, and he's really shined a bright light on all of that. And he is he is in Trump's face and he's you know, they're promoting that on social media.

He is cutting through whether he I mean, whether anybody from the United States Senate is going to be what people are looking for in 2028 is a question. Your point earlier, I think the farther away from the from the mess that is Washington today, no matter what side you're on, may be a better place to be.

in 2028, but we'll see about that. Liz, thank you so much for classing up the hacks here. Enjoy the Big Apple. It's an interesting one, and we've got to get you back. I'll keep your post said. Thanks. It was good being with you, Mike. Classing up the hacks is a low bar. I was about to say it's a low bar. But you cleared it by a mile, so come back. Thank you. I will. I will. All right, Axe, I'll see you. Okay, thanks.

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