Post Debate Hacknalysis
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Hey, pull up a chair. It's Hacks on Tap with David Axelrod, Robert Gibbs, and Mike Murphy. Hacks on Tap

The next question is for Governor DeSantis. We want to get things done. How do we get it done in Washington? Can we please respect the time? We can get it done. So there you go. Sounds familiar. It's like a show. Yes, it is. It's an homage to Axe on Tap. Like, who knew that they were going to honor us in this way at the second Republican debate tonight? Everybody talking over each other. No one...

distinguishable, but it's in the books. My daughter, who's nine, said, we don't even do that in fourth grade. I should deeply insult her. Out of the mouths of babes. Yeah. Yeah. All right. So top lines, top lines from you guys, then I'll give you mine and

But just according to you, I want I want to take 100 showers. You know, remember, I was in the greater version of this cause for 30 years. So it's just hard to watch for an actual conservative like me. Did you feel like the Reagan library was being defiled?

Oh, yeah. Yeah. I wrote a thing on Substack that tonight at 4 a.m., after all the trucks leave and the circus of locusts moves on to the next one, there's a great statue of old Dutch on his horse out there. I'll bet there's a little tear forming like Iron Eyes Cody. I think he wanted to rise from the grave, jump in that plane, floor it and fry everybody and get out of there. It was an embarrassment.

That said, in terms of the hack part of this. Yes. Good segue. Yeah, I'm wound up tonight. Look out, sensor. I still give the win to Nicky, but not as big as last time. I think DeSantis does win most improved, but he's still DeSantis, which is a lot of weight to carry. Scott tried, doesn't have the tools, had a couple of decent minutes there.

And every time I see Vivek, I just want to run out and buy flypaper. That's my reaction to him. So did it change the race? No, but I do think incrementally. And of course, we all saw the CBS poll, you know, blah, blah, blah. In the early states, there is the sleeping Leviathan of the primary voters is waking up to maybe other options. And I don't think she had the grand slam night she had last time, but she did well enough to

that she's the one who's moving, I think. Though who knows? I think DeSantis will win the conventional wisdom. He's back!

because he was not incredibly terrible. I give him most improved. Speaking of conventional wisdom, Robert Gibbs. Go ahead, Robert. Well, I had a question for Murphy a second on the polls, because I didn't necessarily read those polls as both states being incredibly wide open. But, you know, look, I thought DeSantis was much better tonight. I thought he was able to...

do his minute or minute and 15 long 15 second long riffs, because I don't think anybody paid attention to a moderator or a buzzer or a timekeeper for the better part of two hours. I thought he was, was to Murphy's point, much better improved. I thought he, again, I thought he got most of his lines out. He got most of his, uh,

You know, here's what we've done in Florida while all these people talk. Here's what we did. I thought my guess is he came across and presented a broader and better case, certainly than he ever has. I thought Nikki was probably second, but a fairly distant second. She seemed different.

She seemed to disappear for a decent part of the debate. She got a little bit back when she slapped Vivek for, as she said, getting dumber just listening to him. And then there was just the weird sort of her versus Tim Scott at the end. I thought a bit uneven. I thought she disappeared. I also just think, too, I mean...

I think it is incredibly hard for any of these characters to use these formats and try to break through. It's also very clear. You ask them about how do you how do you what do you do about the uninsured in, you know, either in America or in your state? And they have no desire to answer anything related to that question.

They just go into their talking points about something else. I don't, I don't, I don't heard of in politics, but yeah, no, not unheard of, but I don't know how anybody's, I don't see how anybody, I don't see how these formats or these debates are helping anybody. It's probably why Donald Trump,

put out a statement at the end of this debate, his senior advisor, Chris Lasavita, saying they should cancel the rest of these. Well, I don't know why, because I think that he's actually won two debates by not showing up. Fair. Very fair. I basically agree with you guys. I think

DeSantis was really the guy who had the most at stake here because he's trying to keep afloat and he's really trying to win Iowa, which is and he's actually sacrificing his standing in New Hampshire to try and win Iowa. But he did. You know, I think that he got beaten up once.

uh, for his position on Ukraine, but I bet you it landed pretty well with Republican primary voters and caucus goers in Iowa. Uh, you know, he, uh, stuck by his, uh, uh, his position on the six week abortion ban. Although, by the way, did you notice that he kind of, it's,

He is playing a little game because he says, you know, I've been consistently pro-life and I won a landslide victory in the state of Florida with that position. He did not have that position. He did not have a six-week abortion ban position when he ran for governor of Florida for reelection. And Mike Murphy, who's spent a lot of time on Florida races, will probably tell you

that had he taken that position, he probably wouldn't have won by the same margin that he won. Right. And if he had a stronger opponent and taken that position, he would have lost. Well, why don't we listen to his riff on the Ukraine? We're here a little new and improved to Santa so we can talk about it.

We are not going to have a blank check. We will not have U.S. troops. And we're going to make the Europeans do what they need to do. But they've sent money to pay bureaucrats' pensions and salaries and funding small businesses halfway around the world. Meanwhile, our own...

Our own country is being invaded. We don't even have control of our own territory. We have got to defend the American people before we even worry about all these other things. And I watch these guys in Washington, D.C., and they don't care about the American people. They don't care about the fentanyl deaths. They don't care about the communities being overrun because of this border. They don't care about the Mexican drug cartels. So as commander in chief, I

I will defend this country's sovereignty. You know, I mean, he got beaten up by Haley and by Christie and by Pence. But if you look at the last CNN poll, I think 28% of Republicans supported additional funding for Ukraine. Now, I strongly, I'm on the other side of this. I think everybody on this podcast is. But you got to recognize that

You know, he knows who he's playing to. I mean, he was laying on that pitch and he swung at it. Yeah, no, no, he did. I don't think it's as big as he does. We will see. Everybody else on the stage came to life and pushed back.

And, you know, the Ukrainian bureaucrat thing is such a pander. Our friend of the show, Frank Lavin, former official in the Reagan political office, just finished as a volunteer driving ambulances into Kiev and met with one of those bureaucrats who's a guy in charge of replacing ambulances at the Russians of firebombs. So, you know.

We will see. I think DeSantis, I don't think it's the magic way out for DeSantis, but he did the angry populist conservative thing. You know, he did the old Trump line. Europeans are going to pay and so is French. And, you know, that might be part of the combination he needs to get going. I thought DeSantis 2.0 was kind of bad news for Nikki because she was the one kind of, it was heading toward a three-way real race with this,

Vivek being the nut, maybe peeling a little off Trump or Vivek, whatever. Nikki becoming the... Vivek. Vivek. Vivek the fake. Anyway, he being one, Paul Trump being the other, and then Nikki consolidating. So if DeSantis has a comeback, it'll

complicate things there. But we'll see. I thought she still is the best candidate on the stage, though. Yes, she is. And she had the line of the night. I'll still give it to her. Why don't we play it? This is infuriating because TikTok is one of the most dangerous platforms

social media apps that we could have. And what you've got, I honestly, every time I hear you, I feel a little bit dumber for what you say. Well done. Was a good line. And just to go back to the, he didn't put that in the blurb that she did for his book, but, uh,

Yes. But in fairness, she didn't hear the book on tape and the annoyance. In fairness, she probably didn't read the book. No, of course not. She was working undercover setting him up. It was all part of a master cynical Nikki Haley plan. But to go to the DeSantis Ukraine answer, first of all, I...

He's all over the lot on that answer. He never said he opposed it. He said there would be no blank check. So he's trying to wall himself off if he makes it to a general election to say, look, I didn't say there wouldn't be any. I just said there wouldn't be a blank check. Then he did the pander.

which you sort of would expect to do. He said, there won't be any American troops. Nobody in the, I think free world has suggested that we're going to send American troops there. I mean, again, it was a bit of sort of, you know, what polls it kind of 70% for the Republican audience. I,

I thought what was interesting, because in the last debate, one of the ways that I think Nikki Haley punched through was that she created in her Ukraine answer a bit of a fight, I think it was with Vivek, on this. And I think one of the things that you could tell tonight and the reason we played, I think, that

all those people talking over each other is I think a lot of these candidates went in tonight saying, I'm not going to let somebody have that moment. I'm going to keep interrupting and try to literally answer every single question. Doug Burgum, I got an answer on this. I got it. And so basically what you do is you shut down until the moderator said, Hey, you know, Tim Scott, uh,

you know, tell Nikki Haley why you'd be better and vice versa and, and set up those moments. But stupid ass question, by the way, but the lanes were clogged in trying to get people to have those kind of singular one-on-one moments. Nikki does. Nikki Haley does really well. They're kind of slapping Vivek.

I don't know that that scores a lot of points. But you're right. They were all coached to just keep talking, hit you with a club, keep talking. I mean, poor Burgum. The staffer who wanted to play basketball last time, this time, said, just keep talking, never stop. So they had to hood them like a falcon to shut them up. And, you know, it does no good.

No good. That's an old Dennis Miller joke I'm borrowing. It does no good to any of them, just the whole thing. I mean, one thing I think Nikki has going in, you know, I'm not a big historical fan, but compared to Trump, she's Gandhi.

is that she tends to answer with an adult tone and have a vibe of seriousness. The other yahoos don't. We'll see if it's worth anything. I actually thought her, the low point, and I may be wrong about this, but it seemed to me the low point for her were these exchanges with Tim Scott, which got angry and sort of, you know. Petty. Petty, petty.

And, you know, you always sit when you're like when you've been in the business, you sit and you hear a question and you think, man, here's a great opportunity. And, you know, when Tim Scott, they asked him, well, tell her why you'd be a better president than she would since she appointed you. And he gives an answer that sounded exactly like a guy running for the United States Senate. Yeah. And the right answer, that would have been the right answer would have been, you know what? That is a great answer.

for someone who's running for the United States Senate, because that's all they do there is make speeches. I thought the drape thing was amusing because I thought it was... We should explain what that is for anybody who hasn't heard that. Yeah, at the end, they had some zinger Scott hit that he had been holding back. You're my friend. I love you. And then it turned into this gothic Southern, but you were hanging fancified.

drapes at the un drape-a-fying like some artiste and then she went you're lying you're lying you got the big lion mouth lion mouth and we were all of a sudden in the swamps of south carolina my favorite thing was she says obama bought those drapes i didn't buy those drapes that's right and then you take them down did you give them back like what is the world you kept them as a love gift from obama

Progressive. Right. Like pull up the carpet, send it back to Washington. We're just going to buy some rugs out on the street. Yeah. Just poor, poor Scott. I actually think that, you know, he did, he did,

as well as he probably can do. And he did. Tim Scott didn't do the last time. Tim Scott, he actually showed some energy. And he had a moment or two, but he just doesn't have the tools. Yeah. But the question is, does he this is all a game of math, right? How many how many caucus votes does he get? How many? You know, the more that there are people who are actually getting

you know, support the better for Trump. And that's why I still think this was a good night for Trump because nobody was a clear winner. There's still, we go for another month till the next debate and the thing remains a model. Six weeks. This next debate is not until November 8th in Miami. And, and I, you know, it's a, I said this a podcast or so ago, you know, it is getting, it's getting late early and,

And I don't know. I mean, if you're Trump, do you show up for this debate in Miami? See, I think there's a little bit of strain. I was interested at the beginning. They all kind of went after Trump, even DeSantis, and took a little poke at the coward thing. Christie was back on his attack game better than the first time. But then again, Trump went away. None of them wanted to really post up other than some spending stuff early, which Nikki should have hammered the whole time.

And Trump does win when none of them decide there's a way to win other than complimenting him to death, which seems to be the opening thing now. But I don't know. I don't know. I think Trump does look a little old, weak and detached. Yeah. Well, OK. But that has to be passed through the filter of Mike Murphy's big conservative heart. So we'll. No, no, no. I I'm buying that CBS thing. Early states not getting better. We'll see. I don't think it's over.

But can we just talk about for a second, because I looked up those polls. I mean, where's your bright, shining silver lining here, Murphy? They've got Trump at 51 in Iowa, up 30. And they've got Trump at 50, up 37 in New Hampshire. I mean, you said... No, no, no. Well, there was a good tab. Are you totally committed to Trump? It was 20 and 22. You're reading them upside down, Gibson. Oh, yeah. Well, he's only at 20. It's not 50. Yeah.

That's okay. I'll help you get through it. No, they said, yes, there's a tab that said they were considering other people. But, boy, you guys are squinting now, aren't you? Right. Point is, I'm only making one point here. Making one point here. And I know of your vast experience in Republican primaries, Gibbsy. Oh, someone's a little sensitive. It's a little late after a very disappointing debate. Yeah.

The race is now beginning in the states where it counts. And there's an opening. Well, I bet my house Trump loses. Hell no. I'm a little worried he will lose Iowa and he'll have a comeback in New Hampshire because none of these clowns, with the exception of Haley, who I think kind of gets it, is trying to run the two state double knockout campaign, which is the only smart play, but hard to do. And she's, you know, at the end of this is an alpha thing. At the end of it,

Day after New Hampshire, there has to be a young lion with a bloody mouth and an old lion limping away. And nobody's doing that to Trump. And if they don't,

with some adroitness coming at him a little sideways, and she's well-positioned to do it, then yeah, he's going to win. Something has to change. I just think the marketplace is open for something to happen if one of these knuckleheads can get an act together that's about beating Trump and not like running for VP and praising him. And maybe they never will. Then it's done. I want to talk about Christie for a second. Chris Christie is not going to be

He is a good performer, and I thought he actually was a good performer tonight. He's not going to be the Republican nominee because he's got like a 65% negative among Republicans. And he's not, you know, and I like Chris Christie, which probably ensures that he's not going to be the Republican nominee. But I was really surprised at one thing. We have this, let's cue up his...

the thing leading into the Donald Duck line. And then I want to talk about what he didn't do. Donald Trump should be here to answer for that, but he's not. And I want to look in that camera right now and tell you, Donald, I know you're watching. You can't help yourself. I know you're watching. I know you're watching.

Okay? And you're not here tonight, not because of polls and not because of your indictments. You're not here tonight because you're afraid of being on the stage and defending your record. You're ducking these things. And let me tell you what's going to happen. You keep doing that, no one up here is going to call you Donald Trump anymore. We're going to call you Donald Duck.

All right. I want to ask Dr. Okay, burn. Yeah, that was a bad line. But here's the thing. There was all this talk, including in the extended version of that answer. There was all this talk tonight about the rule of law. And what he never got around to was

uh, what it would mean to put someone who very well may be a convicted felon in the white house. And what would that do to the rule of law? Like he pulled up short and maybe he's decided that so many Republicans believe that Trump has been victimized and,

that he can't use that line. But my thing is, what the hell does he have to lose? Right. Go all the way. Go all the way. And, you know, he could have shamed the others. Every single other person on that stage raised their hand when they were asked in the last debate, would they vote for Donald Trump if he were a convicted felon? And everyone but Chris Christie raised their hand. And he had an opportunity to

To shame them. Yeah, and he should have, because some of them would have backed off a little and wiggled, which would have been interesting. No, no, I agree. I don't know. I think...

I think Haley's fiscal attack and if Christie had really pounded on that and they'd sustained it all debate, they might've drawn a little blood, but they just don't seem to have the guts to that. They're working under a theory. If you attack Trump, you lose the primary. Well, why run? You know, if you're trying to get the not considering Trump or you're trying to peel off, sorry, 50, 51% sitting in these two States, if Chris Christie's over there on stage, right.

pounding him for not being here and pounding him for deficits, don't they all just decide they don't need to do that? Somebody else is doing it. The message is out there. I'm going to go talk to his voters about being for closing the border, being for... I think so. I think that's the too clever by half formula they have. It's great. I just have to smile and Christie will beat him for me, which is insane. There's another theory here, which is that they were mostly focused on mission one, which was

In order to get to Trump and get to the position where you can face off with Trump, you've got to cut the other guys down.

And so they, you know, and part of Trump's calculation not being there is if he's not there. And you know what, you guys, we talked about this months and months ago about whether he should go or not go. And one of the things that I said then, and I think maybe you guys said that, I don't remember. And maybe you said it and I didn't say it, and I'm now claiming credit for saying it.

Okay, I think you're onto something. You got it covered. I don't know what it was, but you got it covered. By not showing up, he kind of ensured that they would go at each other.

Like he kind of ensured that he would that that once they exhausted themselves, you know, by doing the obligatory attack on the guy who isn't there, that they would necessarily be drawn into fighting with each other. Yeah, no, no. You made that point. And maybe Gibbs did, too. Last time I took the view of the cost of not showing up is you let somebody else create a star, which is what happened with Haley. She was on Death Watch and now she's in it.

So it's a mixed bag, I think. Yeah, maybe there's a there's a risk associated with that. But as long as they're trading votes within, you know, like within a sort of pocket of anti-Trump voters and there are a bunch of people doing it.

That serves his purposes. You know, it's only if one person really emerges and others fade away. Which clearly the group wasn't going to let one person do that tonight. Right. Like I said, we decided they'd like just fill the room, fill the vacuum, keep going. Always want to answer every question. Look, Trump's decided there's a semifinals to get to the finals and he's in the finals.

Now, I don't know whether that calculus changes in six weeks when we get to Miami, when we, you know, we'll be, you know, we'll be into the month, the calendar month of November. I don't know whether that changes right now. He dominates the news every day. There was a ton of talk.

I did not see it because I was watching the debate, but there was a ton of talk pregame about the whole notion of him going to Michigan. That puts him on par with competing with Joe Biden. He certainly doesn't look like in any of these cases he's lost anything. And so by definition, if you're sitting where he is and you don't lose anything, by definition, you're winning. Let's stop for a minute and listen to a word from one of our fine sponsors.

I didn't see him, by the way, in Michigan where he went to the non-union plant to talk to non-UAW workers.

despite the heralding of it all. What was it? Any of you guys see the video? No, I haven't seen it. I just saw accounts of it. Apparently we have a bite from Trump. Oh, yeah. Trump on, let me hear this electric vehicle thing. Now I'll really get ticked. Yeah. They want to do the whole, they want to do it with boats too. I was with a boating manufacturer in a great state, South Carolina, with a great governor, by the way, Henry McMaster. Yeah.

And we were there two days ago and I asked him that question. I said, do they want? He said, yeah, they want us to go all electric. I said, how does that work for a boat? He said, the entire boat would be like one big battery. We'd have no room for anything else. I said, what happens if the boat has an accident and starts sinking? Do you get electrocuted if the boat sinks? The guy said, you know, I've never thought of that actually, but I think I gave him an idea actually.

Now, can you imagine the boat goes down and you're sitting on top of a battery? I don't feel good about that, right? Oh, I'd enjoy watching it. It was, I mean, the thing that he didn't do. Murphy, it wasn't an invitation. I'm going to get him a boat.

With a hole in it, even though it wouldn't be electrocuted, and I won't even get into battery chemistry right now. Go ahead, David. You know, what would happen would cause his hair to stand straight up. Wait, that happens already. Too bad they didn't get him going on evolution. I want to hear him work that one out, too. Here's the thing. From all accounts that I saw, what he didn't do was get into his...

agreement. He didn't talk about his cases. He didn't talk about the last election. He very much focused on the issue of electric cars. I mean, he's wrong about what he's saying. He's and, you know, he did the Trumpian thing about how if the auto workers support him, that he's going to make sure that, you know, they get everything they want and all of that stuff. But

Just for him not to sort of turn it into an aggrievement thing about his own situation and to stick to one topic. Yeah, remarkable. Yeah. So for him, you know, yeah. Now, Biden, Biden bracketed him with an ad. And I think we've got that, too.

He says he stands with auto workers, but as President Donald Trump passed tax breaks for his rich friends while automakers shuttered their plants and Michigan lost manufacturing jobs. Joe Biden said he'd stand up for workers and he's delivering, passing laws that are increasing wages and creating good paying jobs. Manufacturing is coming back to Michigan because Joe Biden doesn't just talk, he delivers.

I'm Joe Biden, and I approve this message. When we're done with the R's, we should talk about Biden on the picket line. I got opinions. Yeah, go ahead, share them. Well, yeah, one, it's kind of historically different. That doesn't mean it's bad. Maybe it's very innovative. But just I think Michigan politics is not the old deal where the UAW could, with the teachers, would run the Democratic Party.

And in the wider auto chain, which is paid less, there's actually jealousy about how well the UAW guys are paid. Now, by the way, I think they deserve a double-digit raise. They've lost significant money with inflation and everything over the last couple of years. So I'm for the wage, and the companies are offering pretty record high increases, like 20% over a couple of years.

But Tesla workers make 40% less. People in the chain throughout Michigan, Ohio, the industrial states make significantly less. So seeing the auto guys on strike, which is going to hurt them as the layoff strike, as the layoff start if they don't begin this, looking for a four-day workweek, pensions nobody gets and gold-plated health care they already have.

You know, it's not like the whole state is there rooting for the UAW. It's a polarizing thing even in Michigan now. Do you think that Biden would have gone to Michigan?

if Trump hadn't announced that he was going to Michigan? No, I think it was tactics. I mean, I think the smarter move for Biden would have been, look, these people have earned a raise, a big one, and go do the FDR thing and get it done with pressure from afar rather than running up. And this new UAW president is a real Bernie guy. You know, they haven't endorsed Biden because they hate electric vehicles because they think it'll cost them jobs. On the other hand, the UAW is about 15% of the size it was in 1980. Right.

So all the new auto jobs, about half of them in North America are in non-union plants where the UAW has failed to organize because the workers don't want it. So anyway, the plus is there he is, middle class Joe.

So get him the endorsement. The minus, it's more divisive in Michigan, and it's old labor politics, old guy. I don't know. I think being the guy who made the deal to make it work from afar, leaning on the CEOs and the union might have been better politics for him.

but it can be argued. I take your point. I think it's, you know, it was historic, right? Nobody's ever done that. Look, I think he benefits just generally in the state and,

being on the side of workers versus on the side of the big CEO pay, right? It's just, it kind of falls in line with his message. Uh, you know, it's a good place for him to be not a long trip to make kind of an easy thing to do match, um, match Trump tuck tactic for tactic. Let me, can I ask you guys, uh, I want to go back to the debate. I thought maybe, uh,

The worst question was the last question where they tried to get everybody to write down a survivor style. Who are we kicking off the Island? But I want to ask a variation of that, but hopefully in a little bit more deft and tactful way, who are we kicking off our Island by Murphy? No, I was kidding. Um, there go the ratings. Yeah, there we go. Oh, you're the big draw. Um, only in my own mind.

But no conflict. We have Radio DNC here. I wouldn't inflict that on our hardworking accaroos. But go ahead, Gibbs. We're four days away from the end of the FEC quarter, right? So we're going to know in a few days kind of where the money has gone in this quarter. And this is a tougher quarter generally to raise money because you're in the summer, right?

We've got six weeks until the next debate. Murphy and Axe, if you're thinking about this, and I'm not asking you to write somebody who you vote off the island.

Now I'm trying to go slower because Axe needs to chew his granola. Yeah, we're watching. This is a tradition on these late night after debate shows of Axe tearing into the minibar. I muted myself. And I think he just opened the $5 repackaged cardboard box or something to get the stale nuts. It's that bad. He's that hungry.

So we're going to have to send in a care package here. We're going to lose our partner. But the question is, who will the FEC report kill? Because a great question. I mean, or who in the next who doesn't make it to the next debate? Not because they don't qualify, but because they basically run out of steam. And this is the time in which Scott Walker and a few others.

Tim Pawlenty fell out. Do you imagine, I imagine there might be one or two that don't qualify, but do you think there's somebody not participating when they show up for the third debate in Miami?

Well, I thought Nikki was heading there until she had a good debate the first time. And the movable feast of donors, which started with DeSantis, freaked out over him, went to Scott. Then, oh, holy hell, he didn't show up at the debate and went to Nikki. So I think she has a life preserver. But we're seeing we ought to do a special show on the cash on hand when we get the numbers of the majors. There were rumors in the Tallahassee hack world for the last three weeks that DeSantis was going to drop out.

You know, that's the kind of rumors that already are kind of self-propelled. He had enough of a debate that his finance people have something to sell. So I don't think that's going to happen. Scott still has cash on hand. So and I think Haley hopefully normally would have annied in from the last debate performance to have enough to be competitive. Probably not as big as the other two, but close. And those are the three that count right now, really, other than Haley.

So Hutchison, you know, the minor leaguers may starve to death, but it's not that material. And Burgum is self-funding, though I think tomorrow morning you may wake up and think, what am I doing? All I want is for Vivek to stay in the race long enough so that you pronounce his name properly. Yeah.

That's all I'm asking for. But I'll tell you— I'm just going to go to Ramaswamy. That I can handle. No, the guy none of you mentioned is the former vice president of the United States, Mike Pence. Oh, that's the one. Good point. Who I think may be in danger of not making the debate stage. Yeah, and no cash. In the third debate. He's qualified with the polling, apparently, but not yet with having—I think you have to have 70,000 unique donors. Yeah.

I mean, he might not make it. I think that there are people who weren't on this stage now who may drop out of the race. You know, Governor Hutchinson was in the first debate, may not make this debate. Burgum, I don't know how many gift cards you can give out.

But I think, you know, I think it's going to be tough for him. Christie's report, too. That'll be interesting. Murphy, did you get a gift card? No, I gave him like 50 bucks. So I wanted him to be in the debate. I like Bergamot, although he told a big honking lie about electric vehicles. So I won't bloviate about it, but he had his facts all wrong.

Yeah. He also said the problem isn't climate change. The problem is Biden's climate policies. Well, you may not like Biden's climate policies, but we just had a record year of weather catastrophes. And, you know, you live out there in California, Murphy. There is enough evidence that.

that even the governor of North Dakota ought to be able to recognize that, yeah, we have a problem. We can differ on how we deal with it. It's not about climate change that we need worried about. It's about the Biden climate policies that are actually the existential threat to America's future. Yeah, well, out here, socialism causes wildfires, of course. We figured that all out at the Bergam Institute. All right, hold that thought. We're going to take a short break. And now a word from our sponsors.

After the debate, the DNC and the White House sent Gavin Newsom to the spin room, and he appeared on all the television networks. He was very effective, I thought, on behalf of Biden. He made the same mistake that I think

the Biden folks are making in terms of, you know, he said the whole problem is we're not proclaiming the greatness of Biden's economic policies. We don't grab them by the lapels and shout at them until they say uncle about the economy. Yes. So and I think that's a mistake. And we've talked about that

ad nauseum here about you can't jawbone people into feeling good. So if you want to brag about various economic accomplishments, and I think that, you know, $30 insulin and there are things that they can talk about. But my question is, is it good for Biden if he's outshone by his surrogates? You know, I'm of the view, you hear that, because I've been pushing

Wrap them with the geniuses. Hey, Buddha judge, bring your slide rule. Gina, you know, give me the plan for next Thursday. How are we going to work on that? And oh, that makes them look old. Well, everybody knows he's old. There's nowhere to go but up.

When we launched Schwarzenegger's campaign, the first instinct people had was, "He's from outside politics and I like it, but can he even find Sacramento on a map? Does he know anything?" And the first big press conference was Warren Buffett, our economic advisor, and George Shultz.

And so I was with Arnold behind, and this was his first big press thing, and he was nervous. He's like, I'm going to get some trick question. I said, no, you're the commander in chief. Just bark orders. Tell Buffett, hey, wake up, Warren. Solve that problem. Get back to me for a report. Better be good. Next. And just be the in-charge guy of your geniuses. And it worked like a charm. So I would surround Biden with smart people. He's the wise old chairman of the board, but he's got a great team around him that he gets credit for recruiting. I think this thing where, oh, it makes them look

old to have superstars around. They've got no choice. They need the superstars. Yeah, but most of the people, like if you bark at your cabinet and send them out, that's one thing. If you've got a guy who sort of palpably looks like he wants to be president... Well, yeah. I mean, I get it with Gavin, yeah. And he's doing this dumb DeSantis debate, which is a silly thing. Good for him to be on TV. I don't know that you get... I don't know that voters are thinking...

quite like that. I don't know that, you know, the guy in the spin room is going to be, is going to get that much of a look in all this. I mean, look, I think there's, I mean, if Biden wasn't running, there'd be a debate stage twice as big as tonight of people that would throw their hat in the ring, but they're not doing any of that.

which, you know, one of the things we probably should cover is the world shaking a little bit over the weekend with the Washington Post poll that inexplicably showed Donald Trump up 10 points. By their own admission was an outlier. I mean, there was an NBC poll this weekend that was even. That's totally the next topic. Let me just get in one last point on this debate because I'm kind of obsessed with it between Gavin. I think

My guess is the White House people, maybe they're thinking, oh, Gavin's a smooth operator. DeSantis is a serial killer. This will be great. I'd be careful. DeSantis is just going to pound them on Democrat California. Nobody goes to jail. Prosecutors. It'll just be one primary greatest hit after another of weak on crime, left wing San Francisco Democrats.

And Gavin's going to find himself on the offensive. I mean, excuse me, defensive. I don't know if this thing is net-net so good. In the CNN interview tonight, you know, this came up. Dana Bash asked him about San Francisco and so on. And he had, you know, it's obvious he's been prepping for all this. And he talked about the crime rate in Miami and the crime rate in Florida and the crime rate in like eight of the top ten states tonight.

You know, our red states, all of which have higher crime rates than California. You know, he was he was prepared for it. It could be good for DeSantis. That's what I'm saying. Yeah, he will try and do that. And you're right that he could use him as a foil for the for the Republican primary voters. But what I took away from.

What I took away, what I took away from, well, it's also a home game for DeSantis on Fox, but what I took away from it was Gavin Newsom,

is ready for that. And the, and, and how, you know, look for all we said about DeSantis and his improved performance tonight, it's all a matter of being better than expectations. He's still not a great debater. No, he's still DeSantis. He's good at landing the prepared lines. You know, he had one bad moment when they asked about uninsurance in his state being so high. And,

And he was flummoxed by it, and he looked flummoxed by it. He's not agile. He doesn't respond to attacks well. Nope. I would not bet the ranch on him. Yeah, and Nicky put the shiv into him on spending too a little bit and his flip-floppery. So you're right. He's not that fast on his feet. And on what was the other thing? Oh, on fracking. Right, right. And he denied what I think is true.

Well, he tried to conflate it with the offshore drilling ban and, you know, oil schmoil. But yeah, yeah, I agree with that. I just think he can play simple hits on left wing San Francisco crime. I mean, here in L.A., go rob something. You're not going to jail. I guarantee it. So we'll see. You ever get your watches back, by the way? No, no. The guys who cleaned out our house twice did one night in jail or two nights.

Set free. Loaded gun, too. Who cares? Oh, yeah. Maybe you could do an ad. I'm ready. There's going to be a DA race. Let's just say I'm highly interested in it. No, I think for that debate, unless somebody just really falls flat on their face, I think each of them is going to get, to your point, Axe, each of them is going to get into their punches, get in their lines, get in their statistics, and

and probably be able to turn around. I think DeSantis will be able to have a platform on a big network hitting liberal San Francisco, liberal L.A., and whatnot. I think it'll work out well for Gavin, too, because I think he's going to hit back at the –

you know, it's somebody who is not too long ago, the presumptive front runner until he didn't do so well. So I think they'll end up both sort of walking away from the boxing match, declaring themselves the victor. This thing is not happening by the way, until late, I think after the next Republican debate, it's like, I think it's like November 30th or something. It's right before. I mean, I think it could be a good platform for DeSantis is we talked about it's on Fox. I mean, he'll get some,

That's what I think. But it could just be Reagan-Qaddafi. They both win with their bases. Exactly. That's what I mean. Yeah, that's what I think. Who's who? I don't... Yeah, we'll save that for the after show. Okay, let's take a break right here for a word from our sponsor. We'll be right back.

Let's go back and just talk a little bit about these polls, you know, because it's kind of funny today. I opened up Twitter and there's now there's a YouGov poll that has Biden up five. Right. We get NBC tied and Washington Post down 10. So, Murphy, I thought instantly of you and your lamentations to all of our listeners about national polling, particularly at this juncture in a general election race. Yeah. No, I look.

In primary polls, national are particularly misleading because there's no national primary and it's in the future. General election polls between well-known candidates like Biden and Trump have some value, but they don't predict the electoral college. I mean, if Biden is, quote, in trouble and only winning California by nine, he'll still get all the electoral votes. If Trump is now soared to 72 in Alabama, not 65.

It doesn't change the electoral college. So being weak in California if you're Biden is a symptom. You probably have trouble everywhere else.

But these these as we've learned these these head to heads are not completely correlated in our fractured and tribal society with the Electoral College anymore. We're doing polling the wrong way. I think in presidential races, we ought to be looking at seven or eight states deeply forever. Thank you for making our our listeners college educated. Well.

Well, I'm a wild man. You know, I like to live on the edge here. No, but to your point, Murphy, I gather out of those thousand people that each of those polls does nationally, if you take the six toss-up states, right, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and then the Midwest three of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, you probably have a total of 150 of those thousand interviews coming from those, right? And that doesn't include you don't get a sample of...

younger voters. You don't get a sample of seniors. So to your point, I mean, look, I know it's cheaper for the papers to do and the networks to do. I don't know why they wait so long. I mean, we'll get some good state polling or as good as we can get state polling. But these horse race polls this far out in a general election 400 days before that general election, to me, is just

It's a waste of ink and anxiety. Yeah, they should pull states where the electoral college doesn't play, even if you go a little wide and get up to 10 states. Right. It is probably a waste of space and ink, and it's certainly a waste of our time on debate night when it's...

209 in New York right now. And so I say we sign off. Let me ask a final question. Okay. I see you eyeing that mini bar like Nikki Haley eyeing 500 loose voters in New Hampshire. So I don't want to stand between you and a feed. But finally, on a scale of I'll do the McLaughlin thing on a scale of one to five with five being a lot and one being very little.

What did you expect this debate to be and what was it? I will say I expected a three and I got a two. Yeah, I think that's fair. I think I think it was I think it was a lousy debate. And I think it was a lousy debate because it was a lousy job on the part of Fox business or whatever. And, you know, they lost control of it.

uh, their questions. I think, you know, someone raised, I'll give Dana though, a kudos for that follow-up on childcare for Fox. That was a, that was a hard slug question. I was proud of her for doing it. Someone mentioned on the air. And I, when I was on CNN, I forget who, and I think they were right about this. You're here, you know, they, you, you, you say that, um,

Republican candidates are afraid of Trump, but Fox is as well. And, you know, this is the week when Donald Trump basically suggested that Mark Milley should be executed for his for whatever he said to get for treason, primarily because he criticized Trump and exclusively because Milley should challenge him to a duel.

You know, you would think there'd be some questions about Trump that were there's there was not one, at least in the last debate. They did ask, would you vote for him if he were convicted? Well, I was going to say, do you surprise they didn't bring a Trump Trump into some of these questions in order to elicit? And they should have. Yeah. Yeah. And I think I wonder if they got blowback from the last debate, you know, from the Trump

voters who are, after all, many of their listeners. They're dying for him to come to these debates. My guess is they're waiting to see where the Murdochs land. Murdochs 2.0. But go ahead, Gibbsy. No, I think that my guess is they're trying to coax him into coming. You know, I mean, they realized that they had decent numbers last time.

but they get even bigger numbers if he showed up to your question, Murphy, I expected probably a four and got a one. And the reason I expected a four is because I think somebody is looking, looking at the calendar. It's essentially October, right?

You got to start moving, right? If you're, if you watch golf, uh, you know, Saturdays and golf tournaments are moving day, right? You're not going to win the tournament on Saturday, but you got to be in position to win the tournament. And I didn't think anybody, I thought somebody is going to try really hard to get in a much better position. Um, we got a one, I think for many of the reasons David said, it just was, uh, from the very beginning, uh,

I think it would have been hard for any of these guys to break through just because everybody was talking. There's again, the reason we played the clip at the beginning. Um, but I do think people miss some opportunities. I thought DeSantis ended up doing pretty well for what was available to him. Uh, but I still don't, I don't, I don't see how any of these guys is in danger of, of beating Donald Trump.

Well, that's why I think the Miami debate will be big, because that's in the strike zone. We're kind of at the edge of the beginning of the strike zone. In five or six weeks, we're going to be in it. And either something's going to be happening or not. Okay, we're not going to do the mailbag tonight, because it's the middle of the night. But...

I'm going to give you the voicemail. You can still email us questions the old way at hacksontap at gmail.com, hacksontap at gmail.com, or we have a newfangled voicemail where you can leave them. The rule is 20 seconds or less, and at the end, leave your name so we can say, what a great question, Doug. You sound like the governor of North Dakota, and you have some time on your hands. So here's our number. It's impossible to remember because it's in Chicago. 773-389-

4, 4, 7, 1. That is 7, 7, 3, 3, 8, 9, 4, 4, 7, 1. It's an access rec room. Just call, leave a message, 20 seconds, leave your name and hang up. And we'll try a few of those next week on the air. We're going to end now as we finally go to bed after a debate that fills me with no pride. I went to bed 10 minutes ago. With words from the words from a famous speech by

by the great Ronald Reagan. Thanks, everyone. Good night. They say we offer simple answers to complex problems. Well, perhaps there is a simple answer. Not an easy answer, but simple. If you and I have the courage to tell our elected officials that we want our national policy based on what we know in our hearts is morally right, we cannot buy our security, our freedom from the threat of the bomb. By committing an immorality so great...

As saying to a billion human beings now enslaved behind the Iron Curtain, give up your dreams of freedom. Because to save our own skins, we're willing to make a deal with your slave masters. Alexander Hamilton said a nation which can prefer disgrace to danger is prepared for a master and deserves one.