The Fight Within The Fight (with Jonathan Martin)
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Hey, pull up a chair. It's Hacks on Tap with David Axelrod, Robert Gibbs, and Mike Murphy. The Speaker of the House was actually cutting a side deal to bring Ukraine legislation to this floor with President Biden and House Democrats. So, let me get this straight. To extend Joe Biden's spending and Joe Biden's policy priorities...

The Speaker of the House gave away to Joe Biden the money for Ukraine that Joe Biden wanted.

It is going to be difficult for my Republican friends to keep calling President Biden feeble while he continues to take Speaker McCarthy's lunch money in every negotiation. Murphy, that was... Oh, I know. Chief tormentor, chief tormentor of Kevin McCarthy and Congressman Matt Gaetz, who last night went to the well of the House.

and offered a motion to vacate the Speaker of the House. Yeah, he's been threatening for a while. It's the old vaudeville thing. Slowly I turn step by step. I, you know, he is a haircut with a congressman attached representing the district of click to donate. So, you

And it's just so disingenuous and terrible. I've already got a migraine, Gibbs, and we're only one minute into the show. Save your you-know-what and vinegar for the meat of the show, for goodness sakes. Tell us who we have along for the ride. This messy week, you know, we have the putsch attempt on McCarthy. We have the narrowly averted shutdown. We have the aftermath of the great second recession.

leaders of the Republican Party, titans of politics, debates, California Senate, so much stuff we had to bring in the A-team here. Joining us, our friend, friend of the show, friend of mine, friend of yours, friend of everybody, friend of America, Jonathan Martin, ace columnist and all-around bon vivant from the Politico. Jonathan, welcome to Hacks. Thanks, Murr. I always hope you call me a haircut as well, but maybe that's something I can aspire to one day. Yeah.

Oh, I just, he's been to the same barber as that, that human fly, Vivac or whatever his name is. You know, anyway, don't get me going on Gates. You know, the Gates tragedy and Jonathan, you will know this. Yes. His dad, state Senator Don Gates was a real pro, a real adult in the Florida state Senate, you know, in a big power player down there. And somehow it's coming back. It just went. And his sister is a great operative who I've worked with in the past, but somehow he's

You know, when the congressman was conceived, they were too near that Florida power and light nuclear site or something because this guy is a piece of work. But, Gibbsy, take us into the issues of the day or I'm just going to rant for an hour. I was going to say, tell the old man to get off your lawn. We should mention, too, Jonathan told us before we started recording that he has another esteemed bullet point to add to his bio. He is currently, Murphy...

studying and teaching the young minds of America at the community college we know of as Harvard University.

Oh, I know. I know. This whole show just went up like 15 IQ points and we didn't we didn't add anybody, which is just what's Latin for negative campaign campaign more or something. Anyway, you can you can work that out with the seminar of eggheads up there. No, Betsy and I are thrilled to be fellows at the at the great Institute of Politics at the Kennedy School here on the banks of the Charles. And the kids are fantastic. And Harvard is is excellent. And it's hard to beat.

the hub of the universe in October. It's incredible. I have to admit, for all my completely manufactured anti-elitist snark, I too was an IOP fellow, and I was a fellow for years at the Belfer Center there. It's a great place, and you're going to have fun, and you're a real win for them. An intellectual feast only rivaled by Hacks on Tap.

There you go. Jonathan, we hope you didn't take the post assuming the Red Sox were going to go deep into this year's Major League Baseball playoffs, but enough about that. I did have visions of a pennant chase dancing in my head and crossing over the river to go to Fenway, and it just sort of fizzled here, but still, it's still fun to be a fan.

We could do a whole podcast series on the brilliance of the Red Shocks getting rid of that deadbeat Mookie Betts who is never going to amount to anything. But let's jump into another California caper. Anyways, hey, real fast, by the way, I'm Don Gates. This is Hacks on Tap premium content because your audience loves this kind of stuff.

I was there in June of 2015, and this may trigger Mike Murphy. So as they say on the campus, Mike, trigger warning here. I was there in June of 2015 in Florida when Jeb Bush was introduced as a candidate for president by Florida State Senate President Don Gates. And Bush campaign deputy comms director.

Oh, God, I can't believe I'm blanking. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Sorry. It's early here. Talk about an allegory for the turn of the GOP in the last decade or so. It's remarkable.

Yeah, exactly. I'm not sure Don would vote for him now. Well, I would say this was in the Florida papers yesterday. Matt Gaetz's father, former state senator Don Gaetz, seeking a return to office. But enough. I saw that. He's back. I know. So, Jonathan, fill out that expense report and head down to Pensacola.

Couldn't be better. Let's get to Kevin McCarthy here. We're taping Tuesday morning. This afternoon, McCarthy just said at the Republican conference he intends to bring up the motion to vacate. Probably the first time that we're going to have a vote on the motion to vacate in almost a century in the House of Representatives. Yeah. And we should probably just do a quick how these rules work because it's so confusing. Motion to vacate.

requires a vote for Speaker, a vote to vacate. And the trick is, it's not just Republicans voting, or McCarthy would crush the crazy dozen. It is the whole House. And the Democrats always vote against Speaker of the other party. It's the vote to, quote, organize the House. So if five or six single helix Republicans under the leadership of the aforementioned Brother Gates defect and all the Democrats defect,

theoretically, you know, McCarthy's on very thin ice, but there are scenarios. Remember, it is the majority of those voting. So if you don't vote or go out for a donut, you can lower the number required. So all kinds of skullduggery. So Gibbs, that's your department. I'll give it back to you for that. Or you can pull a fire alarm and miss the vote. That's a whole other segment. Yeah. Highlights of the House of Representatives. No, but look, let's just dive in here. Murphy, you previewed it pretty well

Kevin McCarthy finds himself in this place, I think, for two reasons, right? One, Matt Gaetz is going to trail him to the ends of the earth to try to do something bad to him. Matt Gaetz thinks that the...

Ethics Committee is investigating him because of Kevin McCarthy. I don't know if that's true or not, but he never voted for him even in the 15 rounds that Speaker McCarthy needed to become Speaker just a few months ago. And then also, we watched a pretty stunning reversal happen on the floor Saturday morning on the House of Representatives. I think everybody had already moved their big money into the middle of the table that the government was going to shut down. And lo and behold,

They put an extraordinarily clean continuing resolution on the floor to fund government for 45 days and pass it largely with the help of a slew of Democrats who didn't want to see the government shut down. And then, bam,

almost immediately matt gates is saying i'm gonna i'm gonna file this motion to vacate he does monday and and sort of here we are so jonathan where where does this thing end how does this thing end and it's probably going to end at some point later today and people are going to be listening to this maybe after we know the end of it but yeah give us your prediction i was gonna say we're we're we're gonna be overtaken by events as they say in the news business uh you're a hacks on tap um

Kevin McCarthy is now leaning on Democrats effectively to save him. And can he find enough Democratic allies, sort of free agents, who will band with the overwhelming majority of the House GOP to save Kevin McCarthy? I think that's going to be difficult. Maybe there will be some strays, but what?

There's not a lot of goodwill for Kevin McCarthy among House Democrats for a lot of reasons. I mean, obviously, he tried to beat them, but also, you know, he's seen as somebody who is effectively an accomplice to Trump. And I think for House Democrats, that is the cardinal sin. And really, for any Democrat, that's sort of the cardinal sin of this era. And they don't want to do him any favors and throw him a life preserver at this moment. So, look, the bottom line is this.

This is really going to weaken, if not end, Kevin McCarthy's speakership. And it's not surprising. We knew this day was going to come. It was a matter of when, not if. And here we are. And this is the peril of having a five seat majority. Kevin McCarthy's at the mercy of a small group.

of hardline Republicans. And, you know, Murphy, who is quite continental, will appreciate this. What Kevin McCarthy has is effectively a coalition government. If we were in Europe, he would effectively be trying to run a parliament in which he's put together, like, you know, the Greens and the Social Democrats. And it's not one party. The Republican Party is not a singular party, especially in that House. And, you know,

That's what he's dealing with. And it's really hard to do that when you have a five seat majority. That's a good point. He could aspire now to be prime minister of Italy and probably pull it off with the experience he has. I totally agree. But first of all, I have to brag a little. If you would follow my Nostradamus like Twitter feed at Murphy Mike, I predicted they'd make a deal with the Dems to keep the government open beforehand. So for once, I got one right. I don't know. I mean, on one hand, for the Democrats, Republican chaos is great politically.

you know, they're, they're because of Biden's weakness, they're desperate to say, look at that train wreck, forget about our problems. So there's no incentive. And as you say, Jonathan, no affection, uh, to do anything. The one thing McCarthy has going for him is nobody else wants the job in the Republican party because it's, it's, it's like volunteering for the Beirut bomb disposal team. You know, it's just, there's no upside. So if there was somebody who's

like by many factions who wanted to make a run. There's a scenario where that could happen, but boy, oh boy, it's hard to find, you know, normally the, the, the young staff is fluttering about leaking. Well, my boss is getting a lot of calls, you know, at least to get into mention about it could be a speaker. There's none of that. Steve Scalise, who's kind of the natural rival sidelined with some health issues and, you know, and, and the, the committee bowls, you

You know, the Tom Coles of the world want no part of this. And they're more or less for regular order in McCarthy. So it's one of these things you can't beat somebody with nobody and even a really weak somebody against a nobody. And there might be a few, you know, there might be let them go through a couple of ballots, let the Republicans look like the Keystone cops, and then 10 Democrats walk over to get a get a beer across the street and lower the threshold enough that he creeps in.

Is that a prediction? Could happen. Yeah, I'd hate to put my Nostradamus on the line having got it right last week, but sure. I think in the end, the Dems will take the, but let them swing in the wind for a while. I mean, as much chaos pain as they can inflict is on their, you know, it's to their benefit.

Well, as of this morning, it looked like, to Jonathan's point, he just needs to lose four votes and he's toast. And there were certainly upwards of seven to eight who had said they were for the motion to vacate, more that were considering it. Some interesting developments yesterday, and I think they were trying to kind of hold this off because they've got, quite frankly, a good 45 days worth of work in front of them to fund government post this continuing resolution.

But Chip Roy, who's been agitating on this, Byron Donalds, who's really close to Trump, had both said they think this is a distraction. I think that's

probably an affectionate way to describe Matt Gaetz's entire congressional career. So he's, you know, he's forced this vote. It's going to happen today. To your point, Jonathan, I don't see... There's certainly zero upside in Democrats helping out Kevin McCarthy. He doesn't feel or seem trustworthy to them. Even Saturday, he...

He wasn't, you know, he gave them no heads up about the continuing resolution being clean. And you could tell Hakeem Jeffries had to go down to the floor and speak for a long time in order to, quite frankly, give the staff long enough to read the 71-page bill because, quite frankly, nobody on the Democratic side trusted Kevin McCarthy with the fact that it was clean. So I don't see that there's a lot of upside. I mean, you've seen some articles about, well,

you know, what could Democrats extract from Kevin McCarthy, blah, blah, blah. The answer is if Kevin McCarthy cuts a deal on how to run the House with Democrats, he's even more toast than he would be today. I think in the end, Murphy, he is going to be toast today. It could happen. I agree. I mean, you made a good point, Gibbsy. He's in trouble because among the hardcore dozen or whatever, he's seen as making deals with Democrats. So if he saves himself by making deals with Democrats,

He might be able to punch short term, but the next shutdown, he can't play the card that got him the motion to vacate, you know? So this is also a proxy war about a shutdown in 45 days. And here's the great, the irony of this is the notion that he somehow is, is he's in this mess because he he's cut exactly one deal with Democrats. He has literally on every single thing that the hard line has wanted.

time after time placated everything they wanted to do. I mean, their lead witness in the so-called impeachment inquiry last week, George Washington law professor Jonathan Turley, suggested there wasn't enough evidence to impeach Joe Biden. And yet Kevin McCarthy is like, go for it. Let's do this. So his placation has gotten him nowhere.

It's incredible. I mean, it's yeah, it's not like he was, you know, presiding over a great seasonal bipartisan legislation. He was moving through messaging bills effectively and then, you know, cut a deal with with Biden that he couldn't even fulfill the deal with Biden because his conservatives said, no, you have to you have to walk back from that deal and actually cut the spending levels to below what you agreed to. And he said, OK, I'll do that.

So at every turn, he's given in and it's gotten him nothing. Nothing. Just to take the other side of the argument, because I fundamentally agree with you guys. The one thing that may help him survive, you know, the media portrayal was crazy. Republicans want government shutdown. Well, the truth is, most Republicans didn't want the government shutdown. Even the big hunk that voted for were covering their asses in primaries.

So there's going to be some conversation of do we really, if we murder Kevin for all the complaints,

It's going to be Lord of the Flies around here. And that son of a bitch Gates, who everybody hates on the Republican side, too. I mean, if there was a power failure in the Capitol and the lights went out in Congress for 45 seconds, Gates would be found beaten to death with congressional chairs in a corner in a bipartisan, unanimous moment of national patriotism. So and of course, I joke about any violence to a member of Congress. Send your letters to Gibbs.

Um, or your criminal investigation, but, but the point being chaos might be even worse.

And that might prop him up again. So I don't I'm not going to pronounce some DOA, but it's all about no other alternative other than now. Matt Gaetz is the most powerful guy in the House. I think that's an unfathomable disaster for three quarters of the Republican caucus, at least. Well, and that's that's why I think Chip Roy and some of these others sort of pulled back and said, like, look, we've got 45 days to get this done.

whole governing thing, try to get this governing thing back on some semblance of the tracks. They've got to pass appropriations bills. They've got a conference with the Senate. That at least will give them the ability to begin to negotiate that right now. And certainly up until Saturday, they didn't even have an ability to negotiate it. And I do agree with you, Murphy, that I think if they pull the plug on Speaker McCarthy, what comes next? One probably doesn't last for more than 45 days.

And two, almost certainly, it's just going to be a complete and utter mess with, you know, with different committee chairs and different members of the House Freedom Caucus essentially running the building. So it's going to be interesting uncharted territory. To your point, also interesting to see who takes a walk on the vote. Do they lower this threshold?

It is 218 if everybody votes. It's the majority if, you know, if people vote present or, as you said, Murphy, just kind of skip the vote. So lots of intrigue to go here. I was certainly surprised at what happened on Saturday with despite not voting.

uh not betting on your your tweet on this but you know one of the things that will be interesting and and you know murphy talk a little bit about this because i think one of the big fights that this is set aside but is is looming in a huge way is funding for ukraine and in many ways

This dominated to even in the Republican side of the Senate because Mitch, you're totally right. It's the fight within the fight. Yeah. Mitch McConnell had a CR that had the Ukraine money in it. He goes into Saturday's, uh, his conference meeting on the Senate side and says, look, I know the house is going to send us over this clean thing. I think we should get on the floor and pass this thing with the Ukraine money in it. Uh,

Even his lieutenant said, that's not tenable. We can't do this. McConnell walked out and said, we can't do this. So where does this leave Jonathan and Mike? Where does this the politics of Ukraine is is extraordinarily dicey, right? Well, I'll throw it to our guests. We have a problem, though, because the House is in a very different place than the Senate. Yeah. Yeah. No, it's true. America's and Ukraine.

when it comes to the Republican Party on Ukraine. Shameless plug here. I spent a lot of time this summer working on a piece about McConnell and sort of McConnell's last war, which has been to keep the party really on the traditional Reaganite path on foreign policy, especially on Ukraine. And I talked to people in Europe and obviously here in the States about McConnell's sort of crusade

And I knew this day was coming because there was going to be a collision between the House and Senate over spending and Ukraine. And it was just a matter of when. And here we are. And if you watch the votes on Ukraine in the House since the start of the war, you've seen this drift. And guys, what's so striking is

It's chiefly from the more junior House Republicans. In fact, I pulled these numbers. If you look at who's voting to defund Ukraine, they're overwhelmingly people who have been elected since 2018 in the House GOP. That's the Trump era. And, you know, McConnell pins the blame squarely on Trump. I think there's a larger drift toward isolationism that Trump accelerates or almost okays. But this is the challenge here is,

But there is this sort of almost nativist come home America vibe among a lot of Republicans because they see that in their grassroots and their noisiest voices back home. And they don't want to give any more money to Ukraine. And that is the challenge. And Kevin McCarthy, I think if he was left to his own devices, would probably keep the money flowing. But Kevin's a reflection of whatever his family.

His conference wants and gives, as you mentioned, at every turn, he's tried to appease them. And here we are again when it comes to this issue, much to the frustration of Mitch McConnell.

Yeah, every party has a ghost. The Democrat ghost is the loony left stuff that pops up. It's still alive and well and part of that caucus. Our ghost is stupid Republican isolationists, which has haunted the party for a long time. And it's having a comeback. You look at some of those members, they're not all full cranky MAGA either, you know, and so who vote against it. They sense the public opinion is turning. Now, geopolitically,

It's a terrible moment for the opinion to turn because we're like sliding in the third base here. And OK, let's take off our cleats. You know, we're about to win the World Series over there geopolitically because it's very important vis-a-vis China and other stuff. So McCarthy's made, I think, a little promise to McConnell. He'll try to move it. But he's that's a political thing about we're going to tanks to the border, guns to Ukraine.

Uh, and that'll be hard for the D so it is a mess. Um, there are, there are things that the administration can do workarounds in the short term.

You know, the Trump applause line is, well, not even Trump, more DeSantis now. Europeans should step up. But the truth is, most of the Europeans have really stepped up, you know, on a per capita basis. They're doing a lot. So I don't know. But we're shooting ourselves in the foot here. And there's my beloved Republican president.

in the House leading the charge towards stupidity. And this is why the speaker vote matters. It's literally a matter of life and death potentially here on the front lines in Ukraine. If the money is held up from Washington to Ukraine for weeks or even months because there's effectively a leaderless House, then

That's going to have real world impacts. It's the biggest victory for Vladimir Putin since the election of Donald Trump. You know, he can't beat him on the battlefield, but he in the crazy precincts of half the caucus in the House conference, not the Senate. Putin's doing great. And guys, let's say that somebody does replace McCarthy this week and there's a new GOP speaker. Do you think that new speaker in the week's

going into the continuing resolution running out when they're trying to patch together a budget deal for next year, they're going to be willing to call a vote on Ukraine aid as one of their first major steps as the new Speaker of the House.

No, they'll be hiding. You know, they won't even be seen in a Ukrainian restaurant. But here's the interesting thing, Murphy, on on that point that Jonathan just makes. If he does, if if McCarthy or any of whoever becomes the House speaker, if if he's not by five o'clock this afternoon.

if they put that up for a vote, not unlike the continuing resolution, which is just put the vote on the floor, it will pass. Because while a majority of Republicans may vote against it, Democrats will vote for it. And that bill will end up passing. Yeah, and a lot of Republicans will vote for it in the conference. It'll be another split vote. Yeah. The real challenge is going to be whether or not McCarthy, you know, the majority of the majority rule, which goes back to

to Denny Hastert, this idea that Republicans can't vote on anything or bring anything to the floor that doesn't have the support of the majority of their majority, which has hamstrung them for a long time. If they had the majority of the majority, I guess the funding bill would have happened that more Republicans voted for than against it.

But they never would have looked to have gotten Democratic support for this. So the only way Ukraine happens is if this vote's wide open and Democrats and Republicans can vote for him.

I mean, if I were McCarthy and were, you know, impossible for me to ever be in a job like that. But if the viewer is crazy as I am, I'd say, you know what? I'm going to be the Mad King Ludwig speaker here for a while. I'm going to bring it to the floor and pass it with Republican votes. Hell, I'm going to bring a budget to the floor and pass it with Republican, you know, until until.

It's just the complete meltdown. I would go out blazing and at least be able to travel in a free Ukraine someday and say in the clutch I did the right thing. But I don't think that's the calculation going on. All right. Hold that thought. We're going to take a short break. And now a word from our sponsors.

There was a presidential debate. Shocker. Another one. Jonathan Martin, what happened and does it mean anything? Not much and not really. Well, I think these debates are effectively...

The equivalent of kind of the opening act at a concert, right? It's nobody's really there for this show, but you're kind of already in the seat. So you got to take it in and, you know, maybe it leaves an impression, but not much of one.

The Tom Dreesen debates. Yes, that's an old showbiz poll used to open for Sinatra as a comic. I think we're basically in a place now where the traditional non-Trump Republicans, which are about a third to just under half of the party, are eager to find an alternative. They're mostly moving on from DeSantis and coming determined with the fact that he's just not what they hoped he'd be. And to me, the question now is simple. It's

can Nikki Haley have one more good debate in November? And if she does, I think she's going to effectively take that slot of the kind of pre-Trump regulars who are looking for an alternative from DeSantis. And I think we could have clarity on this race, at least the non-Trump element of the race, by Thanksgiving. Yeah, no, I agree. Look, I believe this thing is logramatic in the early states. We're still at the beginning of Iowa.

Let me after the Miami debate, those two weeks are when we're going to know if we have a race. That's right. And in those early states, we don't have a national race till they're over, depending on how they end. I do think Haley is back and she did well enough in the second debate, not as well in the first debate. And I'm not a huge fan, but against Trump, you know, go, Nikki, go.

And the question is, does DeSantis get any comeback from a debate that wasn't terrible? I know the major donor world is very bummed out, but Haley is the best peer candidate. And there is more and more data coming showing in the early states Trump's grip is not a 50% grip. So the question is, can you get a 50% grip?

can those, I guess I'm for Trump, but I'm going to start shopping a little, that majority of the Iowa and New Hampshire vote, is that going to break big for anybody and start a momentum here? That's the whole question. And it's still too early to tell. Those two weeks after the Miami debate ahead of Thanksgiving, I think we're going to see if Nikki makes her move. And I think that that will bring clarity at the least from the standpoint of kind of the donor set. But then Mike, the question to me

is this next period, which is roughly Thanksgiving to the new year. And then the question is, do any of the other non-Trump candidates drop out? If Nikki does this- Right, right, Christie, et cetera. Yeah. And consolidates votes-

What do Christie, Pence, yes, DeSantis, Scott, what do they do? Do they forge ahead and say, no, I'm sticking it through Iowa? Or do they say, look, she obviously has got this thing cooking. And if I don't get out of the way, I'm just helping Trump. Yeah. After the drape fight, my guess is it's weirdly South Carolina personal, which is unfortunate because that'll burn on like a nuclear wildfire for decades. But

I had high hopes for Scott at the beginning. There's no reason for him to stay in, in my view. Maybe he stays for Miami, but he should get out. Christie should get out. Bergman should get out. They got to clear the way. It's a bracketing system, and they've got to give the leading alternative, be it Nicky or DeSantis.

room to run after Thanksgiving. Yeah, definitely. Definitely. Somebody should, Burgum should give up his 0.7% and, uh, and seed it to, no, I'm kidding. I'll agree with you and disagree with you on the debates. Cause we're talking about Nikki Haley. And the only reason we're talking about her is because of these debates, right? So she's, she has scored a bit on, uh,

getting her name out there and showing that she can play, I absolutely agree that they feel like the opening act because the main stage isn't there. And we'll see if Trump comes to the Miami debate. I guess right now he's leaning on not going because quite frankly, if the effect is to make these things less consequential, why would you show up earlier than you had to? I don't think he shows up. I think you're both right that

This debate will be big in terms of launching and giving somebody momentum as we get into the Thanksgiving holiday. And then it's just a pure sprint between really Thanksgiving, because you're dodging holidays, Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year's, you know, to see who, if anybody, can gather some momentum. You know, Christie has said if he doesn't do well in New Hampshire, he'll drop out. I just don't know that there's going to be a lot of people

That will drop out. And, you know, the the public opinion strategies did some polling they put out yesterday. I think they do the DeSantis super PAC that had had Nikki five or six points ahead of DeSantis in New Hampshire at 18. Both of them getting crushed by by Trump in South Carolina. So I'll tell you, it's an 18 now in New Hampshire.

That's I've done a lot of New Hampshire. Not bad. And she is the name you hear. In fact, I'm doing some shoe leather reporting, Jonathan. I'm in New Hampshire next week. I'm going to show up at a few events, get banned. We'll see. But I, all my New Hampshire spider sense is tingling a little. If Nikki can keep up the run, but you're right there. Christie doesn't have to wait for New Hampshire. He couldn't get arrested in New Hampshire in 2016. It's over for Christie. Right. You know, maybe one more debate. I'll tell you a bad New Hampshire poll that,

Between now and Miami might get Trump to that debate. We'll see. But otherwise, there's no if Christie can't be on the stage for Trump time to go home. It's ludicrous. There's no reason for Burgum anymore. No real reason for Pence. But you're right. Candidates don't give up. You know, that's part of the personality. You just keep going till you're applesauce or president.

And it'll be atypical. But I don't know. I think the Trump thing is so big and existential. The pressure on these guys is going to be significant. Incredible. Look, maybe they don't care. And maybe some of them don't have a future in the party. But this has been the great question of, do you want to help Trump enroll to the nomination again? Because that really is the matter at hand. Yep. Totally. Totally. It's funny. I got a call from somebody in the middle of super donor world and kind of a mild-mannered cat. Smart.

I said he was on a call with a bunch of them. He said, no, it's apoplectic, you know, of the situation that Trump is just waltzing to the nomination. And they're going to break to either DeSantis or Nikki or maybe split. But you're right. The pressure to get clarity after Miami, the next debate is going to be incredible. And whoever gets credible public polling in the early states around then could have a could could light a fuse. If not, the clock is Trump's friend. The one point that I want to make is that.

And I want to give kudos to Peter Hamby, who stuck a fork in this last night. And I've been waiting for somebody to do that. And apologies, Jonathan, if you're working on a big column on this. I doubt you are. I read the piece and it was nice enough to give me a shout out in there. I'm joking. But this whole notion, Murphy, of there was a breathless report in The Washington Post last week.

Glenn Youngkin was really, he's really now thinking hard. Yeah, he's thinking about thinking about it. He's going to come off the sidelines and save Republicans. Republicans want him to come off the sidelines and save him. And I'm thinking to myself, who are these Republicans? Besides, they're billionaires, but like they, you know, to say they would constitute even a quarter of a percent of the Republican primary is, I mean, I literally dropped my phone laughing at this whole notion that somehow a

a hedge fund billionaire in a, uh, uh, you know, in a sleeveless fleece was going to ride off from stage left and save everybody. No, no, you don't, you don't understand the master plan. You see, they've had a slogan. They've been holding back for Halloween, the launch date, carve your pumpkin vote for Yunkin. You see, it's going to electrify the country and he's going to waltz right in. I'll tell you, this is the biggest thing I was ranting about this on Twitter too. And you guys know the same. You we've all been around.

This new thing where big donors have press secretaries.

and psychic nutritionist slash political advisors who leak all, you need two of them to call it a lot of interest in Yunkin. My boss is on a secret call with an boom. It's, it's in the paper. And a lot of the big mouse can't even bundle. They're just super PAC donors. Nothing wrong with that. But if you can't bundle hard money, you're not nearly as useful to the greater cause. So it is so easy now to start a boom lit with three or four of these tiers Z

donor advisors. But why is money even useful? Look, the Club for Growth, you can sure already have super package drop. Millions try to take a dent or put a dent in Trump. Basically admitted in a memo that Jonathan Swan wrote about nothing leaves the numbers on Trump. So like,

What is the fixation on donors when this is not even a financial question anymore? It's not like if the Sanctus or Haley had $20 million more, they'd be appreciably better right now. I just don't get the total fixation on donor preferences anymore.

We know that like the pre-Trump party doesn't like Trump. We know who that is. Like we get that, but they don't have any more power than, you know, the average Iowa or New Hampshire voter who's the most important actor in this race. Turns out it's not 2012. Well, they all have the same equation because again, the psychic nutritionist slash political advisors think this, which is, well, we're all rich. Money is important because we're important because we have money.

So we're going to put a lot of money and we're going to hire flavor of the month consultant and we're going to run negative ads and really hit Trump. Doesn't work. The only way to beat Trump is to have a bright, interesting flame for people to say, you know, I kind of like the new flame. And if you don't get a new flame, which is not really money driven, the money will amplify it, but no flame, the amplifier doesn't matter.

People don't move over. And, you know, that's Iowa and New Hampshire, one way or the other. It's not about we're going to spend $20 million attacking Trump. It doesn't move the needle. Well, and the other thing is, it's not even clear that Youngkin is going to win

control of the state Senate and keep control of the house, which the entire draft Yunkin fantasy was predicated on him having a big election night next month. And it's not clear that that's going to happen because the party hasn't figured out how to deal with the abortion issue post-Obs yet, which is a dire question in a suburban dominated state like Virginia. So, you know, it's not even clear to me that he'd have the opportunity given what

what could happen on election night. But even if he did, why would Glenn Youngkin want to jump into a race for three months and race to the right and try to navigate the Trump moment when he could just keep his powder dry? Yeah, he had his window. If he wanted to run, he would have run. Candidates are like, you know, killers. It's hard to stop them from running. Yes. No, Glenn Youngkin's challenge has never been, how does he appeal in a general election? It's how does he appeal in

in an on-the-ground Republican primary. Remember, he went to a convention to get the nomination. He didn't go through an on-the-ground Republican primary. We might not even know who Glenn Youngkin was if he had to. The first lady of Virginia, however, is a superstar because she is an alum of Murphy Pentecostal, my old agency. Well, there you go. Worked there. One of our best interns. And now, a word from our sponsors. ♪

Last thing on Trump, Murphy, is he showed up yesterday at his newfangled fraud trial in New York, clearly looking for a little political advantage, walked out on the sidewalk after the day's events. This is where they could dismantle Trump Inc. as part of the attorney general's campaign.

case and the summary decision that the judge put forward that saw there was fraud in how he was borrowing money and how he had quantified his net worth in getting loans, walked out on the sidewalk, excoriated the judge, excoriated the attorney general, seemingly excoriated his lawyer because he wondered why he didn't have a jury of his peers, which his lawyers had waived.

But Murphy, as you listen to Trump these days, even the exceedingly dark Donald Trump has seemingly gotten darker as his legal troubles get more and more. And he has to figure out how to continue to keep the ball in the air and appeal to...

to his own voters in the Republican primary. Yeah, no, he's cracking up even worse than normal. I mean, just a sidebar, I love this judge in New York, and taking his business license away and all that, you know, doesn't move Iowa caucus voters that much. I think it reinforces doubts. But in the New York business world he cares most about, he's a laughingstock now. The psychological hit from this trial, in many ways, I think is the biggest one of any of them. And it's a material problem, and he might have to write a big check. And

And it pulls the curtain back on something everybody knows, but Trump has loved to ever admit. He's a fraudster and a liar, and he's not that rich. If he'd taken his inheritance and put in index funds, he would have been richer. He's a business disaster. Read Trump by Jack O'Donnell, who worked for him running one of his casinos. Great book. Option for a major motion picture. So.

What about the crazy speeches? You know, we're all kind of insulated to him. Oh yeah. Trump yells and I'm not going to watch or whatever lately he's, he's veering. And I don't use these analogies easily, but he's, he's veering into third right territory. The one where he was talking about shooting shoplifters on site, no trial or arrest or anything. And I just gun them down. You shoplift, you get shot. Trump, Trump, Trump, you know, all of a sudden we, we, we, we had a,

A crowd that you need a time machine to hear in another place that also elected a lunatic through a democratic process. So I really think he's cracking up. And I think that could be part of the third

third act of the Republican primaries. Make the Philippines great again. Donald Duterte Trump. No, I mean, seriously, he sounded like the previous president of the Philippines, which is like, you don't like the drugs? Well, we're going to kill every drug dealer on site. I mean, that's like, it's so dramatically different, by the way, from any Republican or Democratic major candidate for president. And

You know, I think we're all desensitized to it, but Mike makes a good point. If you think about what he is saying, we're going to shoot shoplifters on site. Is he saying it for a fact? Does he have any actual capacity to follow through? No. But the fact that he says it widens the aperture for what's acceptable. And guys, it's the same principle on the comment about Mark Milley. Donald Trump is not going to put down the remote control to execute Mark Milley.

The risk is that by saying that, somebody out there hears that and takes a shot at Mark Milley. And that's the danger of the tragedy. Yeah. I was going to mention the fact that, you know, he said we should essentially execute the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, mostly because it sounds like the chairman prevented Trump from doing multiple stupid things while he was leading the Joint Chiefs. He just stepped down on Friday, March

And to your point, it just makes things, it makes the acceptable. That's right. It moves the needle on the acceptable. Look at it. You can watch the Republican debates. I mean, how?

Half of the stage suggests that in order to control the border and control the drug situation, that they're going to invade Mexico. Invade Mexico. Yeah, and DeSantis has done the same thing about, well, there'll be a lot of bodies on the whatever. Shoot them dead. You know, really? How about mustard gas? That would work. You just drop a big cloud. Right. The whole thing gets loonier. But to your point, Jonathan, does it let somebody on the...

On the outside, think that what their former commander in chief is telling them is okay is indeed okay. That's the riddle, right? Yeah. I do worry, too, that we have, over the course of six or seven years, freaked out about everything Donald Trump has done and said. And the beauty for Donald Trump, his belief is that once I get people to basically be shocked at everything, then...

The masses become somewhat desensitized, but I can still talk to my people. And I get worried that every time we freaked out about everything, then we go through a new cycle of let's execute the chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. And everybody's like, yeah, did you see what he said about Millie? Yeah, bummer. And you're sort of desensitized on it. But there's no doubt he's talking to his base. Totally. It is to quote my late great friend, David Foster Wallace, consider the lobster. Yeah. Because this is a lobster boil scenario here.

And he, between his own insanity and liking to hear a crowd in a very ugly mirror held up to the parts of the American electorate chant Trump, Trump, Trump, and shake the building after he calls for, you know, basically gunning down people without trial or arrest. It's compounding. And it's a tell. It's a tell about him and the cases, the legal jeopardy, the age, the rage.

Anyway, I think Milley ought to say, fine, how about you, me, two Colt .45s and a National Guard proving ground tomorrow at noon? We'll settle this thing, you. I literally want General Milley to be equally irresponsible just for emotional satisfaction. Alert Alexander Hamilton that we're going to a duel. All right. Duel! Yeah. All right. We're going to leave for a minute to pay the power bill, and then we'll be right back.

California, here we come. Let's do it. The gentlelady from California needs to become a little more familiar with firearms and their deadly characteristics. And I say that because it is... A personal privilege for a moment, please? Yes, certainly. I am quite familiar with firearms. I became mayor as a product of assassination. I'm aware of that. I found my assassinated colleague and put a finger through a bullet hole trying to get...

I proposed gun control legislation in San Francisco. I went through a recall on the basis of it. I was trained in the shooting of a firearm when I had terrorist attacks with a bomb at my house, when my husband was dying, when I had windows shot out. Senator, I know something about what firearms can do. That was the voice of the late, great

Senior Senator from California, Dianne Feinstein, challenged on the floor in 1993 during her legislative debate on the assault weapons ban that she authored.

And if I'm not mistaken, the other voice is that of Larry Craig, who often was the very pro NRA voice in the United States Senate, who clearly Murphy steps in it right there by somehow insinuating that Dianne Feinstein doesn't know a little bit about gun violence. Any reflections on that?

on Dianne Feinstein as we remember her passing just a few days ago. Well, she was a giant of California politics. I was on the other side on many issues, but she had centrist democratic instincts, which earned her a primary.

Stayed a little too long, but, you know, who doesn't in politics? And put a real imprint on this state. And, of course, now I think will be remembered as a trailblazer, particularly early in her career, and by more centrist as a voice of some moderation in the Democratic caucus later, and always a canny politician. And that clip demonstrates it. That was like a Jackie Chan movie there. I think Larry Craig's head still hurts.

So, uh, big loss, not unexpected. You know, the twilight of her career was a little controversial, but now Gavin Newsom, the governor keeping his promise that the fill the vacancy, he would appoint a woman of color, which he just did.

stirring up a bit of a hornet's nest. And we can get into the politics of that because they're pretty fascinated. But Jonathan, maybe anything you want to say about Senator Feinstein? Yeah, let me just say two things first on Feinstein. I'll be brief here. But one is, and I think both of you will appreciate this, Gibbs, certainly you, given your experience working for Senator Hollings,

I feel like the Senate and really Congress generally has been diminished and that we've lost a bigness in our lawmakers. I sort of...

a sense of, well, there goes a U.S. senator. I mean, that person, as Ben Bradley once said, clanks when they walk. And I think people like Dianne Feinstein, you know, were of that old school of that's a person with seriousness of purpose, somebody who's an imposing figure. And I just don't see that level of seriousness today. The other thing, I

What a remarkable generation of talent Northern California produced. I wrote something this summer about Nancy Pelosi, who obviously is the biggest name to come out of that

that wellspring. But think about this, Jerry Brown, Willie Brown, Dianne Feinstein, Nancy Pelosi, John Burke, Phil Burke, Salah Burke. And what happens if George Moscone and Harvey Milk are not assassinated? And I didn't even mention Stephen Breyer, who, of course, was from San Francisco. Also, I mean, in a pretty small city, it's a hell of a lot of talent in one generation, in one party. As for the question about succession,

This is a fascinating play by Gavin Newsom. He's appointed a political operative effectively, which is sort of a traditional play, I think, in a lot of these Senate appointments. We've seen it before. But just because Butler was a political operative doesn't mean she's not going to want to keep a U.S. Senate seat. She's 40-year-old. She could serve for 30 years. I think this is going to be fascinating. Look.

Is there a lot of money there compared to what she could make on the outside? No, but she could be a U.S. senator from California for literally three decades or more. I think she'll be awfully tempted to stick around. And I think if she does, that's going to create a real challenge for Adam Schiff. This is a fascinating situation. So

We have a Senate primary underway for next spring between Adam Schiff, the well-known congressman, great fundraiser, Katie Porter, firebrand populist, also a decent fundraiser, not as big as Schiff, both Southern California members of Congress who are going at it like crazy, and then Representative Barbara Lee, progressive caucus member, older African-American who some people thought should have had the appointment per Gavin's original promise.

So they were all hoping it would be a caretaker. Jonathan Martin would be appointed or Baron Robert Gibbs just to hold the seat to the election. Instead, although it requires a move from Maryland where she resides, newly appointed Senator Butler is young, charismatic, and has raised money in her last gig as head of Emily's List. So all of a sudden, there's nothing caretaker about that appointment.

So now there's going to be quite a multi-way primary. Schiff is slightly in the lead in the polling. He's definitely in the lead in cash on hand. But this thing is going to be a barn burner. It's a finally race, Mike, right? Yeah, it's March. Yeah, yeah. So it's coming fast. Money counts in California politics. It's an all. It's an all. Yeah, yeah. It is. Everybody votes and the top two go on. Right.

There's not a strong Republican now. Steve Garvey has been kind of considering running, but even in the polling, the basic polling is, you know, 2015, 777, a couple of Republicans and Barbara Lee on the seven deal. So, and nobody's on real TV yet. So it's about to start, but this is definitely complicated things. And it was no mistake that the shift forces who are, I think right now in conventional wisdom, a slight front runner.

The morning of the appointment dropped it, they'd raised $6 million. Yeah, I was going to say. He's not going anywhere. Our friend Larry Grisolano is in that camp, and he's from Chicago, so they're tough operators. Very much a coincidence that he reminded everybody that his bank account has $32 million in it as you head to what essentially is going to be

five and a half month, six month race to determine who's going to be the nominee or who's going to be the two that go on. And not great news for Katie Porter, who's a good Elizabeth Warren type candidate, which has limits too. But now the race gets more confusing because you've got Schiff is kind of the qualified guy, money, a little more establishment, good progressive credentials. And then you have two interesting women. And who knows what Representative Barbara Lee will do? Could have two African-American women. Should Senator Butler the

decide to run again, but boy, I sure think she'll try. And you're going to see her in the next 45 days trying to get as famous as she can off this appointment. And she's charismatic. So on the other hand, she's never been on the ballot. Hard to learn this quickly. It's like, uh, you've always been a good singer at cocktail parties, get up in Carnegie hall and go. So this one's going to be fun on a lot of different dimensions.

Yeah, let me just, I think it's going to be fascinating to watch. I'm not convinced. I think there'll be a tug for her to want to run. I think there's a lot of reasons why she won't. It's a lot of name ID to gather in a very short period of time, a lot of money to raise, though she's clearly capable of it. I want to pick up on one thing that Jonathan talked about, though. Go back and read, and just to underscore Murphy's notion of how giant Dianne Feinstein was in our California politics.

She had largely told reporters around the days of the Moscone milk assassinations that she was leaving politics. She'd run for mayor once. She was in her mid-40s. And she basically was days away from saying or had said, I'm getting out of politics. In comes a former supervisor, kills the sitting mayor, kills Harvey Milk.

She is the president of the Board of Supervisors, finds herself in a matter of days the appointed mayor of San Francisco. Days away from leaving politics, and yet 45 years later, she passes away as the senior senator. I agree with Murphy. The last few years won't go down as her best. But if you think back at her impact on the state and her impact as...

the first female senator from California, the first female mayor of San Francisco, a real giant. And this is forgotten to history, but she was on the short list to be Mondale's VP in 1984 as the mayor of San Francisco, eight years before she even ran for the Senate. So, you know, her legacy, even national politics goes back nearly 40 years. Yeah. It'll be interesting to watch what happens in California. It's never dull.

She was the secret weapon who was supposed to end the Schwarzenegger campaign, too. It was kind of a classic inside thing. We started moving up and the Democrats were, well, if this bozo actor starts to get close to gray or the recall starts winning and he's going to beat the lieutenant governor Cruz Bustamante.

We have a Dianne Feinstein ad in the can. And of course, the conventional wisdom world trembled and the reporters were hyperventilating. And then they put up a spot with Dianne and like a Kim Jong-il dictator chair. People of California, we do not need, you know, and they dropped the shot. Didn't do a darn thing. And that to take one, and I respect it.

her in her career. She was a master Paul and the Senate is smaller without her and others like her. But it was the classic thing. And it characterized her later career of her accomplishments in the past were a few steps ahead of her grip on the voters. But still, nobody like her. She was never a run to the cameras type politician. She was never going to be, you know, she was never going to stand up and be

you know, a fabulous, uh, uh, speech giver or whatnot. She was, uh, but pretty dogged behind the scenes. And by the way, I was going to say, I was struck by Nancy Pelosi's comments on the floor of the house last week saying that Feinstein went out on her terms. Uh, that was a very purposeful turn of phrase. And what Pelosi means by that is that Feinstein didn't want to resign and vacate the seat. And by God, uh,

You know, I made sure that she didn't have to do that. Nancy Pelosi and her daughter were instrumental in helping Feinstein in the final months. And I think perhaps the most important voice was Nancy Pelosi in Feinstein not resigning her seat even in her last weeks. Ironically, that could create a challenge for Nancy Pelosi's lieutenant and favored candidate for the Senate, Adam Schiff.

Because if Butler does now run for the full term by virtue of this, of his appointment, that that creates, I think, a potential challenge for Adam Schiff and being a white male Democrat and running against a sitting black woman, a Senator. Ain't politics fun. Yeah. A lot of it depends if Katie Porter stays in to complicate things. The other thing I, you know, I don't do advice in democratic primaries, but

They've got to put Pelosi in the front window of the shift campaign because that's the best known secret in California that Pelosi is all in for. Let's play the music as a final homage because this is a secret we can reveal now. One of the singers in the Hacks on Tap jingle chorus, Dianne Feinstein. Listener man.

You hear her back there? Orrin Hatch was so pissed, you know, the Senate songwriter, that we didn't include him, but we wanted higher octave voices. Okay, if you have a question for the Hacks, send it to us at hacksontap at gmail.com, hacksontap at gmail.com, or because we have now entered the 20th century, reluctantly, you can leave us a voicemail at our secret Chicago-based Hacks on Tap phone number. Now, look,

We do the bloviating and the long speeches around here. So keep it at like 20, 22 seconds or it's not going to make it on the air. We have a Hannah who carries around a meat cleaver and a stopwatch to police these matters and she means business. So all you got to do is call our secret question line at 773-

389-4471. I'll pause while you hit rewind because nobody can remember that number without writing it down. That's part of the marketing edge we bring to our communications here at Hacks. One more time. Got it? Got the pencil? Okay. 773-

389-4471 and just leave your name, do your 2022 second question, hit pound, and it is done. And we're going to try this because our first question is going to be a voicemail. Now, we haven't heard these. So if it sounds like we've got the Hillside Strangler making a radio debut or podcast debut, for

Forgive us. But Gibbs just had to run because we ran a little late today, but J-Mart and I are going to handle one of these each. J-Mart, you're going to take the voicemail question. Here we go from Andrew.

Hey, Hacks on Top. This is Andrew Kiso from Minneapolis. Could you comment on the significance of the fact that President Biden has not yet technically filed for re-election with the FEC, despite verbally committing to run? Is it typical to wait this long, or could this be a sign of potential indecision for Team Biden? Thanks.

The short answer is no. I don't think it's a sign of anything. I think Biden's committed to running that ship has sailed. I think absent the health crisis or something similar, Joe Biden is in fact going to run for renomination next year. Because we also take the email questions, I'm going to take one from Andrew who asks,

Is it well established that the main reservation voters have about Biden is his age and how it affects his mental acuity? In TV interviews, it becomes obvious that Biden is not the dementia patient Republicans suggest he is. So why isn't he doing TV interviews all the time? Well, that's a good question. I think the.

is Joe senile debate. And this is what our politics have become, but he is old. He is perceived as old and it is a thing. We'll come down to how he performs and things like interview convention speeches, big moments. And I think because the perception has gone in the wrong direction, I agree. They ought to do more structured events, uh,

where he's prepared and he executes them well, I think those optics would help reassure people who have significant doubts. The reelect is really, in my view, about Biden fixing that problem or the perception of that problem first and showing he is in charge with a forward middle-class plan on the economy, not bragging about statistics, but show he gets the pain and he has the plan and the team to fix it and win the future for the right voters.

Jonathan, what do you think? You think they ought to put him out more? There's risk. But if he does well, it's gold for them. Biden's staff is reluctant to have him out there because they feel there's a lot more to be lost than to be gained. And then, you know, yeah, maybe he could hit a line drive and do better.

But the amount of people that are going to see that, like versus those that are going to see him fall again, like he did on stage at the Air Force Academy, is a canyon size difference. So I think for them, it's a matter of cost benefit. And there's just not a lot of benefit and a lot more cost and risk.

Okay. Well, there you have it. Jonathan, quickly, your Twitter feed. Where can folks follow you as we wrap up here? Get me at at J-M-A-R-G. Very simple. At J-M-A-R-G. And you can read my column at Politico. Excellent. Thank you again, pal. It was always a pleasure to have you. Good to see you again. And I'll see you on the trail. I'll give you a live report from New Hampshire next week. Hopefully see you in New Hampshire. I'll be there, too. Thanks, Murph. Oh, you are. We're hooked up. All right. Thanks, everybody.

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