6,100 in Sight for the S&P 12/9/24
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Kevin, more boxes? You said you finished gift shopping weeks ago. I did. So I got myself some gifts as a reward. That's a lot of gifts. Plus, with Chase Freedom Unlimited, I cash back 1.5% on every purchase. So it's like a little gift on top of the gifts. Oh, I get it. It's just like that saying. It's the gift that keeps on giving gifts for the gifts you give for giving gifts. And now you lost me. Chase Freedom Unlimited. How do you cash back? Restrictions and limitations apply. Cards are issued by JPMorgan Chase Bank and a member FDIC.

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I'm Scott Wapner, and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast, the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in.

Carl, thanks so much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour, the run for stock. 6100 is in sight for the S&P. We'll discuss and debate the road ahead for your money. Joining me for the hour today, Anastasia Amoroso, Steve Weiss, Jim Labenthal, Josh Browns joining a bit as well with his take on the news moving Reddit today.

We're following everything in the markets. We'll check the picture right now. We do have a mixed picture. Dow's gone positive, but we're going to fight it out, it feels like, for this day as we try to get to 6,100 on the S&P. K-Web's ripping today on stimulus news in China. The metals are up, as you would expect. And then stocks that work off China doing better certainly are there, too. And we have a new street high target, 7,100. Right. 7,100 from Oppenheimer for 25. Is that

Does that sound reasonable to you? I think it's the right direction for sure. And it does sound reasonable because let's face it, the economy is on solid footing and inflation is slowing down. And if we just specifically talk about heading into the year end, I do still think positive momentum continues. Look, stocks may be down a little bit today, but the volatility is down quite a lot. So that systematically, Scott, means that investors are likely to stay long equities. And also investors certainly are feeling more upbeat and also consumers are feeling more upbeat.

about the economy. So retail traders likely to come in this week. So we get the CPI report next week. We get the Fed. We also get the ECB rate cut this week. So I think all of that, this tide of central bank easing is likely to impact stocks positively. I think the momentum continues. Seventy one hundred.

You know, that now is the top. You had 7,000 roughly was the top four. Are we going to end up with looking at strategists who just continue to think that this market's going to outdo itself? Well, this is Wall Street's version of the game, can you top this?

this. Yeah. So it's kind of troubling actually. Is it? I guess it is. So I'm not saying the market can't move higher but at this point I think there's broad ignorance of what the I don't say the bear case could be but what could upset the apple cart number one. Okay tell me what what what

What is that? Well, take a look at what China announced today in retaliation for Trump's proposed tariff increases. They said we're going to cut back on rare earths. Rare earths power everything. In other words, they're a component of the semi chips of basically all electronics.

What will that do to the economy? What will that do to inflation? So that's just one thing. Trump's other plans, if he enacts them, and we're beyond the point of saying, well, he's just using his negotiating. All we can do is take what is presented to us and not assume

that's 25% tariffs are going to be 10% are not existent. So I think you've got to take that into account in your calculus. And then the other important- He's not even president yet though, right? So- He's certainly acting like he is and he should be. He's going to be president in a month. I get it, but we still don't know the extent to where the tariffs are going to go and by how much and by what the fallout is going to be. And if it's at least in the near term offset by some of the other

things that will be a benefit to the economy. Which are inflationary. So the other question is, how much of that has been pulled forward? Look, we've had a pretty big run all year, but especially since the election, we've now moved up after a momentary sell-off. Yeah, we're up five. The S&P is up 5% since the election. Right. So that's pretty good on top of what we've done. So how much of what's going to happen? And I agree, Trump's policy

policies will be pro-business, but they don't come without a price tag. So the question is, how much is left near term? And is today something that we're going to see in January when we've got a new tax year and there's other selling to take gains that have been monstrous? People aren't buying the market just because they think that the new administration's policies are going to be pro-business. They think they're going to be pro-growth.

Pro growth. So the reason why you have the multiple at 22 times being justified, Jim, is because you're going to get growth to back it up. As UBS today suggests, P.E.'s high, yes. Too high? Maybe not.

Well, I concur with that. And if you look beyond the hood or underneath the hood, you'll see that the average stock is trading more at 19 times. Is that cheap? No, but it's not expensive either. Look, I'm more with Steve than not on being a little bit cautious here. But I want to say just very clearly, the rest of this month is likely to be positive.

I mean, it's not just that nobody wants to sell. It's that FOMO is back. Animal spirits are in force. People want to buy into this market. And it doesn't really matter whether the multiple is 22 times or, as I just said, 19 times on the average stock as measured by the equal weight S&P 500. What I think you have to be looking out for is not what the month of December is going to do or, Scott, what the year-end 2025 target is going to be.

might as well be 7100 I think we have to look out for in this is where Steve I'm agreeing with you is that in the first quarter this year there may be a little wake-up call little wake up and smell the coffee up exactly what Steve's talking about some of these policies are likely to be you most worried about tariffs yeah and just

inflation in general look i'll feel a lot better and i'll be on with you at the end of the week i'll feel a lot better if we get a soft cpi but most recently we've gotten some inflation reports that would indicate that inflation is sticky on the much heralded last mile down to two percent and you know if you're hanging out at around three three point three percent on core cpi you simply cannot rule out

that the Fed might go back to hikes sometime by the middle of the year. I know that's a minority opinion right now, but you cannot rule it out. So I'd really look, we'll talk about it at the end of the week. It's not that far away from here, but let's see what that CPI report looks like. Evercore today says, you know, you're talking about whether people are in a sense too bulled up, ignoring some of the risks that exist. Evercore today, exuberance is rising. They agree with that, but not yet irrational.

And, you know, valuations, yes, they're high, but they're not extreme enough. Why? Because the Fed's cutting and the economy's strong. So you think you're going to get earnings to justify where the multiple of the market is, and then you're going to get rate cuts, albeit smaller and slower? You're still going to get them. The direction is still lower for interest rates until it isn't. And the likelihood that it isn't, I think, are slim.

Look, the direction of travel is lower interest rates. And I do think the base case scenario for 2025 has to be equities that move higher just based on those fundamentals of earnings that are likely to come in at 304 for 2026. That's what you eventually trade up to. And you assign that 22 times multiple. And by the way, Scott, there's also rate relief. There is deregulation. There's capital markets activity that's expected to pick up. There's productivity growth that we talked about.

So all that to me suggests a pro-risk stance. Having said that, I do agree with some of the caution and some of the sentiment going into the first quarter because, Scott, as we talked about, it's not tax cuts that come first. It's really tariffs negotiations or tariff threats or tariff actions.

And I am particularly cautious on semiconductors. And I think Steve is right that what we saw today from China is probably what's more to come. And there's more chip wars that could potentially take that sentiment of semiconductors lower. So I'm concerned about that. OK. So NVIDIA is lower today.

China's probing the company or said to be over a possible breach of their anti-monopoly law. I do, Weiss, have AMD downgraded today to neutral over at B of A. They look at downside risks. Semis have been just knocked unconscious, really, by software over the last handful of months. We've repeatedly showed you a move of those two spaces that began to diverge about six months ago and has only grown significantly.

further apart. Let's try and pull that up as I throw the ball to Weiss to answer that. But, you know, how about what Anastasia is saying and how we need to look at all of those trades, NVIDIA included? You know, I agree with that. And I did cut back on Taiwan Semi a little bit.

because the position has gotten so big I had to cut back on it. And I think it's going to be somewhat of a rocky road because, you know, as we continue to bump heads with, you know, with China. See, here's what we're showing, what we're talking about. This is just software, blue, chips, orange. Right. And it's natural, right? Money's got to come into the software space from somewhere. The semis are the space that became the source of funds.

And it makes sense. The challenges with Nvidia, of course, is that not an unsubstantial amount of their business comes from China. Now, it's already been halved because of the last time that we did this, the last time that you put restrictions. But you sold today, you sold a little bit of Taiwan Semi? Yeah, this morning. This morning. You know, it's down marginally.

you know, because let's face it, they make a lot of the chips that power China's technology universe as well. But right now, we don't have a clear plan, my comfort. And I've got to think about this a lot more. Biden had said and other administrations, we will protect China

Taiwan. There's been no such announcement by Trump. And yes, he's not president yet. But this is critical to the global economy, whether or not we do protect Taiwan. I was fully expecting you, by the way, and even said to our executive producer earlier, it wouldn't surprise me if Weiss, even if it was for a trade, would

got into some of these K-Web names today, the Baidus and the Babas and the PDDs, just because of the stimulus news coming out of China. If we want to, you could pick any four or five stocks you want that are relative to that. Throw Baba up. I mean, you'll see it today. Over the last six months or year, you know, look, what's this? I've lost count of how many liquidity announcements China has made. And guess what?

They haven't worked, apparently. So do you see on the margins something's getting better? Yeah, but not enough to justify getting into China. Well, let me ask you this. So you look at the Tepper move. That clearly shows you what the Tepper move was, right? Yeah. When he came on Squawk and he said that these were stocks that were going to go up and go up for a while. You know, he's not going to come out and tell you how long he's going to be in the stocks. Let's preface that. You know, he's nimble. And I haven't asked him. Of course. But...

You had this huge move, and then you had a little bit of a come down. Is his broader suggestion of the trajectory right, that at any moment of weakness or what perceived peril, China's just going to stimulate, and then these stocks are going to go up? Well, let's keep in mind that when Dave came on and talked about that, and he's been involved in BABA for a while, you know, we have talked about it fairly often, but

that that was before we've gotten this heightening of geopolitical risks. And it's not just relating between us and China. China has been a supporter of Iran. And so we're going to take that or Trump will take that into account as well. So it's not so

clear. So yes, if we're just stimulus, if that were the clearest question, the only thing I'd worry about, of course I'd be in. But I've got so much geopolitical risk there that I can't do. What if, for example, that China takes their ADRs that are listed in the Caymans and said, we want it all here because we want to prop up our market in China, our stars market and others. What happens then? You'll get pennies on a dollar.

You know, I mentioned earlier this Reddit move today. We made it our chart of the day because it is a record high today after an announcement of a new AI-powered search tool, which meant we had to hear from Josh Brown, who's been in that name in a reasonably recent period of time. He does join us now. What's your take on this move today with Reddit?

Hey, guys. Thanks so much for having me on. I was really excited when I heard it. The stock immediately made a new record high. And I think what people are realizing, which is really interesting, is that for the first time in 20 years, search is actually up for grabs. It's this crazy thing that

Nobody could have contemplated even three years ago. But Reddit sees this opportunity because, number one, anything you search for on Google now, it appears that Reddit increasingly is bubbling up to the front page for results. And this makes sense when you consider Reddit has one of the largest, broadest platforms.

deepest libraries of user-generated content. This is peer-to-peer, people talking to each other. This vacuum cleaner works great. That hotel is terrible, etc. So it makes sense for why Google is paying them for access to that content and

for their own AI. But now Reddit is saying, actually, we're going to launch this new thing. It's called Reddit Answers. You can log directly into that and you can search Reddit itself. And the benefit for going straight to Reddit, in addition to the richness of the information itself in response to your query, is that it's going to be more real time. Reddit is saying you might have content surface as an answer to your question within minutes. So think about this.

who won in the Kansas City game that just ended five minutes ago. Having that response on Reddit is going to be way faster than what a traditional search might produce in terms of just showing you links. Reddit's giving you the answer itself. What do you make of the price action today alone? It's never so easy to say, well, it was up like this and then down like this for a specific reason, but

Presumably, the stock was up as we just showed. Can we throw that back up, please? You have the move up on this news and then a basically flat situation. Maybe it picked up a little bit since you started talking about it. But does the market, is it not as great a news as maybe you look at at first blush?

Two months ago, the stock was $50. So, you know, I think when you consider where this thing has come from, it's

I guess a sell the news reaction might make sense. The Nasdaq's down. I don't know. I mean, if you're if you're invested in Reddit this year, you're having an incredible year. Would I rather see the stock at 180 versus 165? Sure. But I think directionally, all of the dominoes are falling in Reddit's direction this year. They have explosive user growth.

They're having now daily average user numbers like 100 million. Who else can really say that? And the advertising business at Reddit is underdeveloped relative to Meta. It's obviously underdeveloped relative to Alphabet. That's what's changed here, and that's why the stock's been so heavily favored on the momentum side.

So I don't know why it's not up today. I'm just telling you the stock is up huge for people that have been in it. It's up 175% in six months. No, I totally get it. I'm just curious if you had a point of view on that. By the way, Morgan Stanley obviously agrees with you and is taking a mea culpa today. They upgraded it to overweight. They had it equal. They say we've been wrong.

They were on the sidelines year to date, so they missed a lot. But they don't think they fully missed it now, right? They admit that they were wrong and they did miss this run. But like you, they're like, well, OK, better late than never because it's going to go a lot higher in their mind. They look at 200 is their price target now.

So, look, I'm relatively new to this story, and I bought it around like $100 or something. So I didn't catch this thing at the low. That's the important thing here. Reddit is – look, it's a couple things. Number one, the users of Reddit –

don't use a lot of other social media platforms. And that's one of the things that makes it most attractive to advertisers. It's not like the Reddit user is also the Facebook user. In many cases, according to the company, the people using Reddit only use Reddit. So it's, and it's a huge audience. It's not a niche. It's not Pinterest.

where it's like moms who are crafting. This is a massive audience. That's number one. And then number two, they've been hiring talent from some of the biggest social media platforms. Now that they have this high stock price, they have a currency to bring people over from places like Meta who really know what they're doing and can help them ramp this thing. So I think Morgan Stanley is making the right move here.

And the last thing that I would say, and I think it's really important, in the arms race for the LLMs that want to be able to scrape data from these massive pools and lakes of data, Reddit truly stands alone in

In terms of it's an internet 1.0 company. They literally have 20 years worth of user-generated information on that site. It's extremely rich. I keep using that term because it's apropos. And Reddit is a very unique property as a result.

All right, we'll watch it. Certainly, it's up 2%. Now, Josh, thanks. Wanted to hear from you today, and I appreciate you. That's Josh Brown joining. You know, another stock hitting a new record high today is Oracle, Jimmy. It reports earnings after the bell. Let's hit that, throw that one up, too. We'll keep an eye on Reddit, though. Now it's up better than 2%, but there's Oracle. Oracle's had an incredible run. It has. I mean, you look at a—throw up a year to date on this one. You're going to see up to the right on steroids, Jimmy, where—

Look, no longer cheap. I'll be the first to admit that. It was great when it was, but I think you still continue to hold this. And the reason why it's in the sweet spot of AI, data centers, all the CapEx build out there beneficiary of. There was a story, I think it's actually true. I don't think it's apocryphal, but a couple of months ago, maybe three or four months ago,

Ellison sat down with Jensen Huang at a high-end sushi bar and said, "Hey, listen, I really need those Blackwells. How many can you give me?" And he's gotten a lot of them. They're building out the data centers. This is, as I just said, the sweet spot of AI. You add that fundamental story to the technical factors of everybody wants to be in AI. I mentioned this earlier in this block.

that there's sentiment right now, FOMO, and this is the place to be. Now, if you don't own this stock, what I would say to you is probably wait for the earnings to come out. It has had, Scott, as you just acknowledged, one heck of a run. There may be a little bit of pullback when you get the earnings out there. But either way, I do think this is one you want to add to right after earnings tonight. Was it Nobu and Malibu?

You tell me. I mean, this is your crowd. I'm a little bit more up on the farm. I'm pretty sure he owns that. Easy place to make a deal. He does own it. And if you need help getting in, let me know. I'm a VIP there. It's a good spot. It's a tough reservation. It is a very tough reservation. I can help you. It's a very good spot.

Like I said, easy to make a deal when you're sitting on the balcony and the waves are crashing underneath your feet. And also helps when you're Larry Ellison. I mean, let's face it. You don't own this name, though. I don't. You know what's kind of interesting? I was looking at the long-term PE chart.

And it's selling at levels that had reached a few times before in market melt-ups, but for very short periods of time. So the multiple generally over their longer-term history is below 30 and actually around 20. So the question is, actually, it started at PE at

30 this year. So the question is, are things 50% better there now than they were 11, 12 months ago? And I don't know if that's the case. And look, I'm not saying that there shouldn't be multiple expansion, but 50% multiple expansion seems...

Seems kind of wild. As I said, it's not cheap. It just isn't cheap. It was cheap earlier this year. And this is, again, it's sentiment. It's sentiment that's driving it right now. Exactly. The fundamental support, but the sentiment are driving it. I agree with you. And going back to our opening conversation,

That's what concerns me, this massive multiple expansion. But maybe that's the case for Oracle. That's not necessarily the case for all the AI software stocks out there. And in fact, when I look at software multiples at eight times EV to next month's next 12 month sales, you know, that's well below the 17 times that we saw at the peak of 2021. So I actually really like this rotation trades coming out of some of the AI semiconductors going into some of the AI software names.

Earnings growth for software has been decelerating, but it looks like that's poised to change. And we've seen quite a few beaten raises, actually. Yeah, in some cases. I mean, if you take a look at Salesforce, I mean, good quarter. And great commentary on Gen.I. But I just don't remember, aside from the last couple of years, and you guys can back me up on this, where a penny better or worse...

And the same guide or a penny better or worse than the guide leads to a 20% move in the stock. It's kind of crazy, isn't it? By the way, the restaurant was in Palo Alto. Nobu, Palo Alto. Right. But he owns that too. Yeah. His Nobu in Malibu. If it was farm to market, I wouldn't say. It was in Palo Alto where the meeting happened. Right. At a said to be high-end sushi joint. We are speculating, of course, that it would have been Nobu in Palo Alto since it's...

within the Ellison portfolio. I haven't been there, so get your own reservation. I have, so I can hook you up. Well, I'm not sure about that. All right, we'll take a quick break, and we will have a call of the day on a red-hot private equity stock, plus the trade on another one that is about to enter the big leagues, so to speak, next.

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Kevin, more boxes? You said you finished gift shopping weeks ago. I did. So I got myself some gifts as a reward. That's a lot of gifts. Plus, with Chase Freedom Unlimited, I cash back 1.5% on every purchase. So it's like a little gift on top of the gifts. Oh, I get it. It's just like that saying. It's the gift that keeps on giving gifts for the gifts you give for giving gifts. And now you lost me. Chase Freedom Unlimited. How do you cash back? Restrictions and limitations apply. Cards are issued by JPMorgan Chase Bank and a member FDIC.

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Call of the day is Blackstone, upgraded to a buy at TD Cowan. The target to 230 from 149. They like the setup. A lot of people like the setup for alt managers, private equity firms, lower regulation, pent up demand.

deal, nirvana, animal spirits. You pick however you want to describe it, but that's what people are talking about. Yeah, what's not to like? I mean, both from the setup that you just described going into next year and also the longer-term secular perspective. I mean, just going into this year, you know, first of all, we're seeing fundraising activity really start to stabilize. And across all

All the different strategies were on pace to $1.1 trillion in fundraising, which would bring us back almost to levels that we saw in 2020. Then you've got deal activity that's also on pace to actually eclipse what we saw the last couple of years. And then you mentioned it, Scott, which is the capital market rebound that is really expected in 2025. And those holding periods are long. The LPs, the limited partners, are wanting to have some of the money back. Yeah, they want realizations to happen, right? They've been waiting.

They have been waiting and that can come in 2025. It's already started to happen this year. So that could really bode well for solid returns for these managers. But the longer term, Scott, I'm also looking at the asset center management today and alternatives, which is about 17 trillion today, which is forecast to go to 29 trillion by 2029. So that's a lot of growth across private equity, across venture, across private credit. And all of these managers, of course, are very well diversified. Why the lack?

of ownership with you guys, just specifically because you're the one sitting here, of private equity. I mean, Apollo's going to the S&P on the 23rd, before the open on the 23rd. These stocks are up a lot year to date, but they're up a ton since the election, right? New environment for private equity, new environment for M&A, and these stocks have ripped. You know, I did own Carlisle. I sold it, obviously, way too soon.

I can't tell you why I don't own them because I've had the story. After all, I own Goldman for similar reasons. Right. Do you think this story has a tremendous amount of legs still to go? Are we at the earliest innings of a run for PE stocks? Yes, I do think it does because of the paradigm we're in in this market where it's all about momentum. It's about momentum of fundamentals, not valuation.

And that's a general market call, so it will. And let's not forget, Mark Rowan was almost Treasury Secretary. So I've got to believe, you know, that—I don't know how to say this, but that his deals that Apollo does will get a good look or maybe not as good a look from the FTC. Well, but the whole point, though, is that—

It could be Apollo. It could be anything. It could be Aries. Whoever. You could be able to do deals like you weren't able to do for the last four years. That's correct. And you still have the disconnect between public markets and private markets. So the valuations in private markets have continued to be depressed. So, look, I wouldn't be as optimistic for PE if they're buying public companies, right?

But with private companies, with rates coming down, and with them having big balance sheets where their cost of capital is lower, yeah, it's panacea for them. I do wonder if you would start to get more companies that have been staying private longer, right? The number of public companies has been steadily decreasing.

in part because of the very service that private equity firms continue to grow. Private credit. If you're a private company, you don't need to access the public markets in a manner at which you used to depend on them because now you have alternative

sources of cash and capital. Yeah, but if you're private equity, you do need to monetize these things eventually. You do have to give money back to your LPs. Even more reason why the environment looks rich. I completely agree. By the way, I'm in BlackRock, and don't throw that to the side of the road when we're talking about private equity. They bought global infrastructure partners. They're buying HPS. They bought Prequin. So they're clearly getting big in that space. I'm

Great company. I'm not taking anything away from Blackstone or Apollo. Scott, it looks like you want to say something. I do. I just want to look at the other kinds of banks. Weiss mentioned Goldman, which is ripped. It's up like 50-something percent year-to-date, I think. Morgan Stanley got a downgrade today at Bank of America. It's the equal weight. They changed their price targets, too. Bank of America's target goes to 55. Citi's goes to 104. Goldman to 736. There it is at just, let's say, 600.

They're all going to benefit. That's the Wall Street view right now. I mean, you've got lower interest rates. That's going to facilitate dealmaking. You've got lower volatility in the markets, notwithstanding, Steve, what you and I are thinking might happen in the first quarter or first half. You've got lower volatility. That's going to open up the IPO markets. You've got an administration coming in that's more friendly to mergers, so M&A activity is going to help.

And whether this benefits the Blackstones and Apollos of the world, that's one way of playing it. But whether you're Citigroup, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, you're going to benefit on the advisory side. Citigroup has said that a lot. Don't we think, though, that a lot of that's already in the stocks? Like I said, if you go down the list, 55 plus percent for Goldman. Citi's up 40. You know, B of A is 37. And the other gains in the space look pretty similar to that.

Yeah, but if the trends continue for the duration of 2025, similar for the S&P, if earnings continue to go up, if activity continues to go up, that's what the stocks will ultimately trade to. And you also have to look at the other opportunity set, which is, I mean, it's all about cyclicals. It's participating in who can benefit from better lending activity from investors.

steeper yield curve. So I think despite the valuations, which by the way, are not all that stretched on a 10-year look back, I think the activity in financials continues. Yeah, there's one other point that's really not discussed at all, is that with the aging of the population, right, the founder-owned business they still run, and I've seen this as we look at lots of privates, are more likely to step up and sell

than they are to continue being private. So that's going to fuel private equity. Private equity is not really going after the leveraged companies because they're putting leverage on top of themselves. So the ones that we talk about that have the high valuation, those aren't their targets. Their targets are ones that they can

leverage. And by the way, just to add a quick point on valuations, they've clearly snapped back in the public markets. In the private markets, they have picked up as well. They're not at the troughs that we saw in 2022. Very selectively. Perhaps selectively, but on the index basis, they're a little bit higher, but they're still below the valuations that are available in public markets. All right. Let's get the headlines now with Courtney Reagan. Hey, Court.

Hi there, Scott. Good to see you. Our jury has found Daniel Penny not guilty of criminally negligent homicide for putting a homeless man in a deadly chokehold on a New York City subway train last year. The decision came after the judge dismissed the more serious charge of manslaughter due to a deadlocked jury.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Vladimir Zelenskyy said a diplomatic resolution to end its war with Russia would save lives. At a press conference Monday, he met with Germany's opposition leader. Zelenskyy also raised the idea of foreign troops deployed in Ukraine until it could join NATO. The remarks followed the Ukrainian leader's meeting with President-elect Trump in Paris, who called for an immediate ceasefire.

And Lara Trump said Sunday night that she will step down as the Republican National Committee co-chair at the next RNC meeting. In a post on X, Trump said she completed three goals she had for the organization. Lara Trump's name has been floated as a possible replacement for Republican Senator Marco Rubio of Florida if he is confirmed as Secretary of State in the new administration.

Scott, back over to you. All right. Courtney Reagan, thank you very much. Up next, your ETF playbook for the year ahead. Bob Zani standing by with a look at what's going to drive the action in 2025 following a record-breaking year for that market this year. We're back after this.

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Kevin, more boxes? You said you finished gift shopping weeks ago. I did. So I got myself some gifts as a reward. That's a lot of gifts. Plus, with Chase Freedom Unlimited, I cash back 1.5% on every purchase. So it's like a little gift on top of the gifts. Oh, I get it. It's just like that saying. It's the gift that keeps on giving gifts for the gifts you give for giving gifts. And now you lost me. Chase Freedom Unlimited. How do you cash back? Restrictions and limitations apply. Cards are issued by JPMorgan Chase Bank and a member FDIC.

We are back. Let's get to Bob Pisani now with today's ETF Edge. Hey, Bob. Scott, good to see you. As we begin to close out a record year for the ETF industry, what bets are investors making for 2025? Let's talk with Brian Hartigan. He's the global head of ETFs at Invesco. It's the fourth largest ETF provider in the country. Brian, hot topic is Bitcoin. We passed $100 billion in assets under management for Bitcoin ETFs that include your Bitcoin ETF. I know you run that one, BTCO ETFs.

How is momentum in Bitcoin ETFs as we close out the year? It's been remarkable. It's been in flows for one year. Absolutely. Yeah, I think you've seen the next chapter of Bitcoin, right? We've surpassed 100,000. We know the regulatory environment next year will be conducive.

and helpful for Bitcoin assets and beyond, right? So we'll see how the options market starts to create the liquidity within the asset class. And from there, I think you'll see additional use cases for how investors invest in Bitcoin. 12 Bitcoin ETFs now have

1.1 million bitcoins. That's 5% of all the bitcoins in existence. It looks like more than Satoshi Nakamoto, the legendary founder. It's not clear how much he might have loaned, but it's amazing here to see how many you now own. 5% Bitcoin community, ETF community. You're seeing the ETF being the vehicle of choice for Bitcoin holders. Institutional adoption is increasing as well. And that's not just for Bitcoin, but for ETFs as a whole. Yeah. So the Bitcoin community, I know, has been very positive about Paul Akins.

Atkins nomination to the SEC chair. How is his nomination being viewed in the ETF community? What do we think is going to happen with him? Well, I think with any SEC chair, we seek engagement and guidance and a proactive opportunity to progress, right? So we see that as a positive change for us. And we'll look forward to engaging further with new developments in the industry, for sure. So we're going to close out the year. I want to let

ask about equity what kind of equity bets are investors making right now now you run triple q's the fifth largest etf in the world right there the nasdaq 100 that's an historic high big inflows you also run the equal weight s p r s p also big inflows new highs what are we hearing what are we seeing as we close the year what's interesting is that the qqq bet and qqqm is really a concentration story right it's the magnificent magnificent seven

that has been driving a lot of the returns, but investors are trying to balance out that concentration and identify when market breadth opens up. And that's where the equal weight S&P RSP strategy helps investors to pinpoint their allocations. And I want to note your Bitcoin ETF is almost 1 billion in assets under management. Overall, Bitcoin ETFs almost...

A hundred billion, correct. Amazing here. We're going to talk a lot more about that, folks. We're going to have a lot more coming up on hot ETF trends for early 2025. We're going to talk about Bitcoin and flows into momentum ETFs, quality ETFs, bank loan ETFs are hot right now. And that whole new regulatory regime in Washington. Brian will be joined by Nate Geraci from the ETF store. That's ETFedge.cnbc.com. Scott, back to you. All right, Bob. Thank you. That's Bob Pisani. We have more committee stocks on the move coming up.

including a pot for one of Jim's pharma names today. We'll document them, we'll discuss, and we'll debate them next. Are you following the Halftime Report podcast? What are you waiting for? Look for us in your favorite podcasting app. Follow the Halftime Podcast now. All right, let's hit some committee stocks on the move today. Vertex, we'll do Vertex first. It's up 2%. It was upgraded to a buy. We're doing Vertex next. Big tease.

upgraded to buy from Holdit Jefferies price target to $550 from $500. This is yours. Yeah, and I think this is an excellent entry point for anyone who doesn't own the stock. This should be a wonderful long-term holding because it really owns the cystic fibrosis franchise in the world. They're continually refining the products that they produce to combat that disease. But on top of that, they have a very vibrant pipeline. It's not just sickle cell disease, which they're

actively producing some new candidates in. It's pain, where we know that there are pain medicines out there that are highly addictive. They're about to get approval for a non-addictive, highly effective pain medication. Beyond that, they've got some other indications that they're working on. They've made some key acquisitions. Somebody may look at this and say at 26 times forward earnings, it's expensive. The earnings growth is there to justify that. Okay, now vertive, Weiss. We can spend more time vertive. Which you bought more of. Well, vertive's down 8%. Is that why you want to avoid it? No.

Well, it's down six and a third now. So you bought more on Friday. It's a core position of yours. Yeah. Talk to me. That worked out for 10 minutes. Look. Why is it down that much today? What happened? I have no idea. It's been down since they were insider selling. But the key insider selling. Down since you bought more? No, no. Well, it is down since I bought more. Absolutely. Both times. Look, all I can imagine is that it's related to the semis because semis power.

the AI chips power what's going into the data centers. However, I think it's entirely misplaced. I can't find anything wrong with it. You know, I'll be talking to the company later this week. I'm not worried about it. I do think it's an opportunity. I get calls every day and every day look for ways to play AI, the tool belts and data centers continue to be that. It's not going to stop the building of data centers. Trust me, it's going to keep going and they're a critical part of it. What about CRH?

Both of you guys own the stock, right? Jimmy, I think you were in it first.

China related something or other? Why is it down 2% today? I don't think there's any real reason why it's down 2% today. And I'm sorry to give that answer, but I don't think China is a negative. And I think it's a positive. If they're stimulating their economy, that should produce growth and the need for aggregates and other materials that CRH produces. It's had a fabulous run. I mean, this is, you know, same as you were just talking about Vertiv. Sometimes stocks go down and there just isn't a real reason for it. But if you look at all the fundamentals for CRH, it's very positive. It's not very expensive.

We're building here in the U.S. China wants to stimulate. Go team. Weiss. Hey, there's no reason to just keying off what he said. No reason why Netflix should be down two and a half percent today. It just happens. It's day to day. You know, so so look, it's still solid. If anything, they benefit from rates coming down from under housed or under honed.

US, we're really short on it. So again, I think it's just some profit taking and nervousness about next year, January, will everybody start taking off? - Maybe there's other stocks that fall into that category, like Applovin, which is down 14% today, stocks up like 900.

percent year to date. And we've been documenting that, for example, almost daily, how that thing has gone up. Meta. Look at Meta on the news. You'd think that the news was ratified on TikTok ban and having to sell it. Yet the stock's down today. Why? Because it anticipated that news last week and moved up. So that's all it is, profiting. Okay. Santoli's next with his midday word right after this quick break.

Welcome back. Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli is at the desk now for his midday word. You're asking the question how much holiday cheer is too much. If you're Juan Soto, you're feeling pretty cheerful today, Mr. Yankee fan. Juan Soto, I would say, didn't get too much. I think he got what he deserved, and I think he showed what this market has been about for a while, which is you've got to pay up for quality and reliability because there's not cheap stuff, unloved stuff out in the market.

So, you know, I'll grant that. I guess his year on the Yankees was like Reggie Jackson's year in Baltimore in 1976, which nobody even remembers happened. But anyway, beyond all that, the cheer I'm really talking about is the localized stuff in parts of this market that got overheated. You were talking about these names, Vistra, pulling back. You mentioned Palantir, Robinhood, Coinbase, MicroStrategy, all down multiple percent today. And that, to me, is just about...

Everybody looked over the weekend how much this stuff has run. You really were getting these blistering moves. Now, the question is, can the rest of the market just kind of keep in stride and absorb it? And there's an attempt at rotation today. Big picture.

You're not bullish today on next year because anything is underappreciated or because, you know, the positive economic outlook is some maverick contrarian position. It's because you think things are going to continue and high expectations are going to be met and bull markets persist. I think that's the rule going into next year. Get some data, you know, this week, tomorrow. Yeah. That could, you know, I mean, you're what are you a week or so, 10 days from a Fed meeting?

10 days from the Fed decision around. So it all matters. Absolutely. No, it definitely all matters. And I guess to me, I always look at it as, are we going to seize on something as an excuse

to have a little bit of a setback. I don't look at the chart of the S&P or the action internally and say, uh-oh, watch out. What I do say is it might take a little something extra to accelerate from here unless you want to. We've been sitting around for a while. We hit 6,000 on November 11th for the first time. Here's an interesting number for you. Do you know what Babe Worth's

total career Babe Ruth's total career earnings would be in today's dollars? No, but it's a heck of a lot less than Soto just got. 19 million. Yeah, exactly. Soto's contract is 760 million. I looked it up last night to confirm I should have either gone into the NBA or the NFL. I couldn't really hit a fastball. Don't tell Jay Powell that. Yeah, right. All right, we'll get the earnings set up coming up on one of Jim's big winners this year. We'll do it next.

Let's give you the setup. Casey's General Store. The earnings are in overtime. Jimmy, you own it. What's your outlook here? Well, it's just been a darling stock to begin with. And one, as we've been talking about a lot this show, might look at the multiple and say it's too expensive. But apropos of what our friend Mike Santoli was just saying, the default here is that stocks are going higher unless there's a reason to go lower. And that's the case here with Casey's. They just closed an acquisition about a month ago that's going to increase their presence in Texas. They're going to increase their presence in Texas.

There's no reason to think that people aren't gassing up their cars and buying the jalapeno pizzas. So I think things are going to look good here at Casey's. Are you revealing your order?

You know, unfortunately, I haven't been to the Midwest since they announced the jalapeno pizza, so I haven't had an opportunity to try it. It's a relatively new menu offering. And as you've heard from his comments today, he doesn't need any more gas, right? I mean, he's fine. Okay. Finals are next.

Hope you'll join me on Closing Bell a couple hours from now. Dan Greenhouse, Stephanie Guild, Morgan Stanley's Apple analyst Eric Woodring joins us again. And Alex Sherman will have more on that record-setting

Baseball contract today for Juan Soto to the New York Mets. All right, final trades. Anastasia, nice having you here today. What do you have? Good to see you. Software. Software, as I talked about, it is cheap relative to its own history. It is cheap relative to semiconductors. And I think next year can be the year of AI and monetization and software. By the way, it also has much more of a domestic focus than semiconductors. I like it. Stephen Weiss. Vertiv, you get another chance, yet another chance to average down. I like it here. There's nothing wrong with the company.

Wow, you're like way too agreeable today. I'm not sure. This does not bode well for your next appearance. I've got to be very introspective after this. He's going to be very cranky. AbbVie, nice Parkinson's drug news today. Okay. That does it for us. I will see you on Closing Bell, 3 o'clock Eastern. The Exchange is now. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern, only on CNBC.

Thank you.

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Stripe helps many of the world's most influential companies grow their revenue and build a more profitable business. Whether it's Hertz making checkout a smooth ride for their customers, OpenAI answering unprecedented demand, or PGA chipping away at back office inefficiency, Stripe's financial infrastructure platform helps companies achieve ambitious goals. No matter what success looks like for your business, Stripe helps ensure the complexity of financial systems doesn't get in your way. Learn more at stripe.com.