The 2025 Portfolio Rebalance 1/3/25
Halftime Report
Deep Dive
Why did Brent Talkington decide to trim Apple from his portfolio?
Brent Talkington trimmed Apple because he believes the iPhone 16 sales will be incremental rather than exponential, and the stock has become expensive with a price-to-sales ratio of around 9. He also noted that revenue growth is expected to be around 4%, and he sees better opportunities elsewhere.
What concerns did Steve Weiss have about Apple's performance?
Steve Weiss was concerned about Apple's exposure to China, especially after the Chinese government restricted the use of Apple phones by government employees. He also noted disruptions in Apple's supply chain as it moves production to India.
What is Kevin Simpson's view on Apple's valuation?
Kevin Simpson believes Apple is overvalued, with a price-to-sales ratio almost double its 20-year average of 4.4. He also mentioned a trailing 12-month PE ratio of 40, which is significantly higher than the historical average of 24. He sold his Apple position in early December due to these valuation concerns.
Why did Brent Talkington buy more Uber shares?
Brent Talkington bought more Uber shares because he believes the narrative of Tesla and Waymo dominating the robo-taxi market is years away from reality. He sees Uber as a free cash flow machine, especially with its $7 billion stock buyback program announced in February 2024.
What is Steve Weiss's opinion on robo-taxis and Uber?
Steve Weiss is skeptical about the profitability of robo-taxis, citing high costs for maintenance, insurance, and repairs. He believes it is more cost-effective to outsource these responsibilities to drivers rather than relying on autonomous vehicles.
Why did Brent Talkington trim his Palantir position?
Brent Talkington trimmed his Palantir position because the stock had risen 400% in a year, making it one of the most expensive names in the market. Despite being a long-term fan of the company, he decided to book profits due to the high valuation relative to its $2.5 billion in revenues.
What is Jim Laventhal's strategy for AI investments in 2025?
Jim Laventhal believes AI should be played through non-tech companies that are implementing AI, such as insurance, travel, and retail sectors. He thinks these companies will see monetization from AI, rather than blindly investing in hyperscalers like Microsoft.
What is Brent Talkington's investment resolution for 2025?
Brent Talkington's resolution is to continue educating clients to avoid being swayed by short-term headlines that could derail long-term investment strategies. He emphasizes the importance of staying invested in asset classes long enough to earn returns.
What is Kevin Simpson's final trade recommendation?
Kevin Simpson recommends Robinhood, citing its acquisition of Trade PMR and its position to benefit from the largest generational wealth transfer in history. He believes Robinhood is well-positioned to capture market share from traditional custodians.
What is Steve Weiss's outlook on Bitcoin for 2025?
Steve Weiss believes Bitcoin will retake $100,000 and potentially reach $125,000, driven by strong demand and a pro-crypto administration under Trump. He sees Bitcoin as a volatile but promising investment.
- Apple's price-to-sales ratio is around nine, almost double its 20-year average.
- Concerns about China's policies and iPhone sales growth.
- Committee members express differing views on the appropriate level of Apple ownership and trading strategies.
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