The State of Stocks Amidst Market Turmoil 3/13/25
44:14 Share

What if your business could see beyond the what is and into what can be?

What if you could create more impact in every decision? What if you had a partner as visionary as you are? With Bank of America, you get access to our trusted experts, real-time insights, and digital tools. So whether you run a local shop or a global enterprise, you're backed by business solutions to make every move matter. What would you like the power to do? Visit bankofamerica.com slash banking for business to learn more. Bank of America is proud to be the official bank sponsor of FIFA World Cup 2026.

And now, a next-level moment from AT&T business. Say you've sent out a gigantic shipment of pillows, and they need to be there in time for International Sleep Day. You've got AT&T 5G, so you're fully confident. But the vendor isn't responding, and International Sleep Day is tomorrow. Luckily, AT&T 5G lets you deal with any issues with ease, so the pillows will get delivered and everyone can sleep soundly, especially you. AT&T 5G requires a compatible plan and device. Coverage not available everywhere. Learn more at att.com slash 5G network.

I'm Scott Wapner, and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast, the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in.

Carl, thanks so much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour, the state of stocks amidst this market turmoil continuing again today. We discuss and debate with the investment committee. Joining me for the hour, Bryn Talkington, Josh Brown, Kevin Simpson and Jason Snipe. We'll take you to the market picture here, which, as Carl just said, we're at the lows of the day. The Dow's down about 480. You do have almost a 300 point decline for the Nasdaq. The Dow

Tech remains, that sector remains a pretty good point of selling. You did, as you know, have the PPI cooler than expected. There's more threats of tariffs today. We're watching the government shutdown possibilities. And then, of course, those very important comments from the Treasury Secretary on our network this morning, where he said we're not concerned about a little bit of volatility over three weeks in the stock market, that the markets are prone for big unwinds like this. Not sure why tariffs are such a big deal for the markets.

And then I thought really importantly when he was asked if his earlier comments about a detox is a euphemism for recession, he said, quote, doesn't have to be. Didn't say no, it isn't. Doesn't have to be.

that means he didn't rule it out and i feel like there's a lot of that around josh and that's why the market remains i think a bit unsettled yeah there's a couple of things here that i think are really important to just uh set up for the outset of this conversation the first is that earnings estimates have not come down nearly as much as sentiment has and as multiples have so now we're at 20 times forward coming down from 22. so we're derating here

on the multiple, but not yet. We're not seeing that for full year 2025 earnings expectations. And that might be the next shoe to drop, or that might be the silver lining, depending on how long you think this tariff stuff is going to last and what companies have to do in terms of guidance in order to navigate it. But I want to share a quote from Michael Semblist, who said this last night to presumably all of

all of jp morgan's uh investment clients um uh samuel this is the chairman of market and investment strategy for jp morgan asset and wealth management most powerful guy in research in the entire building he said here's the interesting thing about the stock market it cannot be indicted arrested or deported it cannot be intimidated threatened or bullied it has no gender ethnicity or religion it cannot be fired furloughed or defunded it can't be primaried

It can't be seized, nationalized, or invaded.

It's the ultimate voting machine reflecting prospects for earnings growth, stability, liquidity, inflation, taxation, and predictable rule of law. What he has put into words last night, I think, is the thing that is now dawning on the markets. It's nice to have these policies. It's nice to have these grand pronouncements about punishing other companies that we trade with, etc. But the stock

market doesn't care. What it's going to focus on is the earnings outlook going forward as a result of the policies, and you can't talk it out of repricing this risk. You can't tell it, no, stop, wait, this is going to work. The market is going to react first.

And that's just the way it's always been. And I think when you're investing right now in this climate, the thing you need to pay attention to is to what extent will earnings estimates be ratcheted lower by the street and how bad will the hit be to multiple, which is pure sentiment, not math.

We don't know the full extent of that yet. We could be just in the early stages, and that's the sobering reality that I think we're all contending with today. Of note, the Dow, as we come on the air today, has given up 41,000. The last time it was below that was September the 12th of last year. So far, so bad, really, for this stock market, which the S&P is now down 7% since the inauguration. The Nasdaq's down 11%.

Dow's down 5.1%, but it's been really tech growth. The Russell is down 11.5% as well. Bryn, so what's your take here? You know, the Treasury Secretary, I thought was interesting this morning, just didn't sound that concerned about what the markets are doing. And here's somebody who's been in the markets for more than 30 years.

Yeah, I mean, obviously he has, you know, best friends very close with like the Stan Druckenmiller's. I think he's a very calming voice as press secretary. But I think to build on what Michael Simplist, Josh articulated so well is in the market, price leads fundamentals. And right now, when the fundamentals of the economy, I'll say the economy, which is not the stock market, are under question, price is going to make that decision. To Josh's point, a voting machine. And I think where...

We all have to understand if the administration goes through, which may be long-term positive, short-term pain, in reducing government employees across the board. If you look at 2024, government jobs accounted for at the state and federal level. So I have to say that 85% of job growth was

We had huge deficit spending, which, by the way, still continues. So that hasn't even remotely stopped. And so I think the economy, if we're actually going to pivot from this fiscal lead to the private sector lead, that is a detox. And I don't think it's going to happen as fast.

as it's actually being laid out right now. But I do think it's something we all need to think through. How does the economy fare? And to me, that's one of the biggest reasons that the market is selling off because we don't want inflation to come down because growth is coming down because jobs or job unemployment is going higher. And so I think this is going to be here for a while. Don't forget April 1st, that American 1st.

Trade policy memo comes out. That's why Trump keeps talking about April 7th. Second, I think we're going to get another shoe to drop on tariffs with other countries. And so I think we're just have to settle in with this volatility. I will say, you know, finally, there's so much that investors need to understand. The CTA is the last two weeks.

which are the commodity trading advisors, the selling is commensurate with 2018 and 2022. So they have just been pounding on selling and then now are short. And so I think that that's still gonna cause flow issues for the market when you have all this wall of money that's mechanically driven still now short this market and potentially with more to sell. - Some of the more bullish and or optimistic voices

who watch these markets are growing more cautious. Ed Yardeni among them, he cut his year-end S&P target to 6400. He was one of the highest at 7000. Now, Chris Harvey,

Ed Wells was on Closing Bell with me yesterday, and he's sticking with his for now, 7,007, which was right at the high. But Yardenik cuts his. It just follows what others have done recently, too, and many this week, by the way. BCA, remember, downgraded U.S. equities to underweight on Monday, as did HSBC. They went to neutral.

Tuesday, Citi did the same. They went to neutral. Wednesday, Koston at Goldman lowered his price target. All of this following that move at Truist on the 25th of February, which was the first to downgrade U.S. equities. So the view has gotten a little dimmer. I just want to on your Denny, because I regret.

I regard Ed Yardeni as one of the most consistently correct strategists and one of the few who was courageous enough to be bullish back when everyone was bearish. One of the people talking about roaring 2020s and sticking with that call throughout 2022 when things look really bleak. What Ed's doing in his note is he's keeping his earnings expectations.

Importantly, he's doing what I was just talking about, which is reducing the multiple on those earnings. And that's based on the environment that we're in. And he's going from a range of 18 to 22 times earnings

to 18 to 20. He's chopping the ceiling off of that. But one of the things that he says is, should this tariff stuff come to an end earlier, he reserves the right to go back to that 18 to 22 range. And when you do that, you can have a year that gets to 7,000. It just looks increasingly unlikely the longer that this goes on for. So I thought it was a poignant note, and I think he's getting out ahead of where

where a lot of other people are going to be. Why do we deserve 22 times earnings for a year-end target? Well, people, Jason, were asking, do we deserve 22 when we were at 22? Now we've come down to around 20. And maybe if the market upset continues the way it is, we'll be coming down even more from that. Is it time to lower your expectations on where you think the market can go?

because of all the uncertainty that's been introduced from the tariffs and sort of the way that it's all been discussed, rolled out, rolled back, rolled on, and rolled forward, which we still don't have all the answers on.

I think tactically, absolutely. I think it is a time to kind of reset your expectations. You know, I think what Josh mentioned, I think, is supremely important in terms of earnings revisions. They have not headed materially lower. We've had

Good, strong earnings growth for Q4, obviously, we saw, but markets are always looking ahead. That's always the story. But the question for me, is it uncertainty or is it weakness, right? Like material weakness. I think it's far more about uncertainty. The tariff talk is obviously an overhang on the market. The political rhetoric is obviously an overhang on the market. And it's hard to pay attention to the fundamentals of companies today.

when there's all this noise out there. So for us, I think it's about taking opportunity, being opportunistic in all the mess that we see, whether it's tech growth. Obviously, value has outperformed 500 basis points year to date. But I think this is an opportunity. I think it is a tale of two halves as we look to the second half as more opportunity in the market. Kev, I like the way that Jason frames this. It's almost like

Uncertainty versus reality. Uncertainty speaks of, well, we're not really sure, growth scare versus reality of, okay, now we have a recession. The credit markets pretty much reflect that. Reuters today with a headline, corporate bond spreads hit their widest in about six months on recession fears. I get that, but they're still pretty tight. Let's just be clear.

FT, U.S. junk bonds slide as Trump's tariffs spark economic worries. Yes, not in an overly meaningful way.

We have to qualify all of that. JP Morgan's trading desk asks the question, will credit markets be proven right again? Quote, echoing the recession scares of the previous two years, credit markets are once again more dismissive of U.S. recession risks than equity or rate markets. In other words, the credit markets, which are at the end of the day more important to the overall stability and health of the markets in general,

are so far okay. And that's the underlying factor. Until that deteriorates further,

Then we have to have a different conversation if that happens. Yeah, I agree. I agree with the bond market. It's bigger, it's smarter, and it's telling you there's not a recession on the horizon. But I keep things really simple. So I was listening to Josh talk and I thought, OK, if we get $270 in earnings on the S&P 500, which I still think is going to come down, but let's just start there. And then we bring the multiple down to 20.5. That gets us to 5,535.

And when I looked up at the screen a second ago, it was 5, 5, 4, 2. So everything seems kind of reasonable here. We could certainly see multiples come down. I think we'll absolutely see earnings come down. But it's not that bad. And the bond market's validating that. I think we all got a little bit spooked earlier in the week when we heard from Delta. At least that's what got my attention. We see all the

the retail names coming out, Dollar General today, Walmart. You can take your pick. Oh, the Journal has tallied all of the others. It's Walmart, McDonald's, Costco, Delta, Target, Foot Locker, Lowe's, Kohl's, Macy's, all Dollar General today, the ones who are warning about caution about the consumer. So the consumer is flashing that cautionary tale, but there's another like maybe white knight waiting in the wing. So maybe revenues come down, margins come down, tariffs can affect it.

but it also potentially moves up the fed rate cut into the summer. So if summer is in play, which it wasn't two weeks ago, then at least you have a little bit potentially for a stopgap here or at least a trading opportunity. Well, speaking of the trading opportunity, there are several who come on and say this is, in fact, a buying opportunity. At minimum, that you could get a tradable bounce. And we did, in fact, get one yesterday, especially in the mega cap and high momentum names, the

The problem is, is they're down again today. So if you tried to think that yesterday was a tradable bounce, tactically speaking. Can I can I call your first year? Yeah, I want you to cook on that because you're getting punished again today. OK, let me point this out. The Nasdaq 100 is now 12 percent below its all time highs. That's a legit correction. And it's fast.

on the S&P, it's actually the fifth fastest in the last 75 years from an all-time high to down 10%. So if we're repricing, man, we're doing them overnight. That's number one. Number two, every MAG7 stock is

is now 15% below its all-time high or worse. And when you now look at the multiples, you have a very different picture of what you had to pay for these stocks relative to their growth. You sure did. Let me give you some numbers behind that and I'll let you cook some more. So a month ago, Nvidia's forward PE was 30.3 times. Today it's 24.9. Apple's a month ago was 31.6.

Today it's 27.8. Microsoft's is down. Alphabet's is down. Meta's is down. Amazon's is down. Yeah. Now, let's take those numbers and let's compare them to earnings per share growth.

Alphabet, 16 times forward, 11% earnings per share growth. Not cheap, not expensive. NVIDIA, a 20 forward multiple on 52% earnings growth. What's the problem with that? Meta, 21 times 14% earnings growth. Amazon, 2%.

26 times, 37% earnings growth. Amazon's cheap, guys. Apple, 26 times, only 8% earnings growth. Still problematic. And then we won't do Tesla. But my point is, relative to what is being expected...

by these massive companies. All of them are in 15% or worse drawdowns, and most of them are now reasonably priced if you think those growth estimates could hold up. And they're not very high growth estimates.

It's not absurd to think that META can do 14% earnings growth over the next four quarters. Why wouldn't they be able to? Unless you're talking about like an outright recession that starts to slam ad budgets. That's not happening yet. You might think that that's possible. I agree it's possible. Is it probable? I don't think we have the evidence to suggest that. Amazon's on pace for its sixth straight.

Week of losses. Meta, it's fourth straight. Microsoft, it's seventh straight. You know Joe Terranova looked at the Amazon slide that Josh is talking about, and he went in and he bought more of that stock. Retail flows from J.P. Morgan suggest massive NVIDIA and Tesla buying, offset by big Apple and Microsoft selling, which takes me to Kevin Simpson.

who bought more Tesla. So the stock had a couple of days up. It's reversed yet again. You bought it at 226.

Why was now the moment to do that? Yeah, this is not a fundamental story. I didn't jump in when Josh said, let's not talk about Tesla. What is it? Pure price action. So you've got a stock that's down 52% at 226. We stepped in. We're still up $10 on it. But think about how I can own this name. It doesn't matter what the ticker is. I'm looking for volatility. So I can write calls against this. Bryn, you're on the show today. You write calls on it more than I do. This is a situation where, just like we did with MicroStrategy, no fundamental basis for it.

but just harvesting a ball play. So this thing goes up another 10, $20, I'll be writing calls against it. We'll be out of it. - How far out of the money do you go with something like this where it legitimately could bounce 20%? Like how far out do you go? - So with MicroStrategy and Robinhood, we went a year out. That's what we're planning to do with Tesla. We wanna write a one year leap.

And we can write it 10, 20, 30% out of the money, but it brings in massive premium. The intent isn't to hold it for the year. The intent is to collect that premium and then close it out on a pullback. You can't own these names and think that they're not going to drop after they go up. You couldn't care less if...

There's a longer-lasting impact of drop in Tesla sales. You couldn't care less if they sell fewer in the EU. You couldn't care less what Musk says, tweets, does. I wouldn't have enough time to pay attention to it. Wouldn't have enough time in the day. I would say this about Elon Musk. This isn't even an Elon story. This is like a tactical...

It's a trading story. He's crafty. And he could come out with an announcement that takes the stock up 15%, 20% anytime he wants to. What if he announces a buyback? They could authorize it. He never has to actually do it. I mean, I would not discount the possibility that he's cooking up an idea to remind shareholders, hey, guys, I've made you a lot of money over the last 10 years, and I could do it again. And it don't take much with this name. We all know. We've all seen these episodes.

Bryn looks like she's dying to get on this. So I wanted to talk also on the options side. So different from Kevin, yesterday when the stock was at 250, I sold to April, I think April 17th, next month, 270s.

and got $13. And so huge premium. So I could do that 10 times this year and make almost a 40% return just off selling one month out of the money calls because the volatility is so high. I think with Tesla, there's so much negative sentiment. I mean, there's just so much.

But I promise you, let's talk about this in two quarters. The juniper's rolling out all over the place. I think they're going to have very strong sales. They continue to have really strong adoption. It was the number one selling car in 2024. And there has been so much negativity, just like there was too much euphoria

at 460. There's a lot of negativity here. And I promise you that can change. And so when these numbers actually start to improve, I think it'll be two quarters to get two full quarters of the juniper. I don't think the stock will be at 235. But that being said, you don't even have to do a one-year leap. You can do a one-month, five weeks out and get $13. And I think that there's been a lot of damage technically to the stock.

And to think that all of a sudden you're going to have this V recovery on the upside, I think is silly. It's going to have to build a base. It's going to have to have sentiment change. And you're going to have to have good numbers around the cars because that is right now their business unit. So we can talk about autonomous. We can talk about et cetera. You need to see the juniper actually flow through. I feel really confident that EU numbers and the U.S. numbers and the Chinese numbers are going to change with the new model refresh. There's been tech

There has been fundamental damage to whether it can be repaired in short order is the question. The Microsoft thing, whereas Tesla is a price action trade, if you will, Microsoft feels like more fundamental. Stock just sold off too much. 100%.

A hundred percent. This isn't some crazy idea that you're just playing a leverage game. This is a business that we think has come. It went up too high. It's static for a long time. It's come down. The P.E. ratios are pretty attractive. Josh went through some of the numbers on these other names. Microsoft for us is an investment. We do have a short term call on it, Scott. It expires next Friday. We have a 420 that we brought in three dollars and 50 cents.

So again, kind of clicking some poop, clipping some coupons here. But we believe in the copilot. We believe in the AI and we think this is a story for an investor, not a trader. DA Davidson, they take the target up today to 450 from 425. They also look at the slide in the stock. It was the worst performing mag stock in the six months since the downgrade that they had.

They feel like it's now properly reflective of what their fundamentals are. Apple, woodring yesterday at Morgan Stanley took the price target down. It was a very big move. Not a big move in price target, but a big move considering the gravitas of the person who did it. Today, it's KeyBank, reiterated underweight. 200 bucks is the price target. Worth keeping an eye on for certain.

I mentioned momentum names. Bounces yesterday, sold today. Palantir, Reddit's down another 6%. Josh, CrowdStrike, AppLovin, Trade Desk, Vrnova, Vistra, Vertiv, Dell, all red. Kevin Simpson buys more Robinhood. Why?

It's almost like a combination of the two stories we had before. You get massive volatility like the Tesla, but there's a fundamental story here, a serious fundamental story with Robinhood also. So when you see this thing go to the moon, we wrote leaps on that like we were talking about, Josh. More recently, we wrote one-week calls, one-week calls, and then we bought it at $36 on Monday. Yesterday, we wrote a $38 call, so $2 higher. We brought in $3. It expires next Friday. If it happens to be a trade, it's on half the position. We make $5.

If it expires, we bring our cost basis down to 33. We started buying this at 40 in December. We like this long term and we like it as a trading opportunity in the interim. A couple of things to mention real quick. Adobe is a disaster today. It's a new 52 week low on the guide. You got stopped out of it.

So you got stopped out at the open. 392. You see where the stock is now, 384. What's the difference? What a horrible, horrible stock. And we've known this for quite some time. I may have been incredibly tepid on it.

it we've talked about it over the past few months fortunately it was never a final trade i always encourage people not to follow us into it we're finally out of it you can you know wait on something only so long they have the user base they're not able to monetize it with the ai we bailed on the name all right got some other moves uh from somebody not on the program today but a member of the committee it's bill baruch he joins us now to discuss via skype it's good to see you so you sold the rsp that's the s p equal weight you bought the cues

Do you think, so you think that tech has gone down too much, that this is a good buying opportunity, theoretically? - I think it's a great buying opportunity. I mean, as you highlighted, everybody on the panel today highlighted, I mean, some of these names are really reaching terrific value levels. Go back to middle of January though.

We had the Q's in our tactical ETF basket that accompanies a diversified individual stock portfolio. And we sold the Q's and we bought RSP in the middle of January after that monster run in quarter four. Basically, we're sort of unwinding that. We're selling the RSP. We're going back into the Q's. I think there's a really good tactical play here. The S&P itself, the NASDAQ, they're all kind of trading near those September lows.

think we're the later innings of the sell-off and yesterday's rally did put her out i mean they didn't have the volume you really want to see those names that led they didn't get 300 400 daily average volume days so that kind of left us back in this and we're back in this rotation of news and in the in data is going to get us out of this hole but i think we're at the later innings i think we can rally five to seven percent get back in the range of the 200 day moving average in the nasdaq all

All right. We'll watch that. I'm going to keep moving and let you go. I appreciate the update on these trades. Again, selling equal weight, buying the Qs, thinking maybe the tech trade has been

been hit a little too hard. Maybe, Jason Snyder, you think the same thing with a name like Netflix, which you bought more of, which by the way is down about 14% in one month. - Right, and 15% off the highs, but what has really changed about the story materially? Nothing for me. So when I look at Netflix, the biggest thing I say is okay,

Top line revenue is growing faster than content spent. Very simple. That spells margin expansion. The foray into live sports, the ad supported tier, all those levers continue to work. So that's why we decided to add

more capital to the name in this small drawdown that we've seen over the last month. - All right. - I like it. 25% earnings growth expected this year at a 30 PE. Slight premium, deserves the premium. This is a company annualizing at 30% a year, has the highest

Revenue per employee out of the entire Mag 7 at 2.8 million. This is like one of the best businesses in the entire market. And I think you're going to do well with this. I'm watching the banks yet again because they've been down pretty sharply this week. JPM's down 7 percent again on the week. Not today, but it gives you an idea of where the trend in these names has been. More selling than buying. There's no question about that. Which leads me back to Kevin, who bought more JPM.

You think this sell-off in the banks is overdone? You can never pick bottoms, but it's down 17% in a month, best of breed. A company that we were banking on generating tons of revenue from M&A and IPOs, and that kind of got pushed back maybe until the end of the year or next year. So these are the opportunities we want to get in there. We got called out of half the position in January at $2.55. So coming back in here is at $2.30. It's probably even cheaper today.

I think makes sense. If you don't own it, we have a full position now. I think you can start buying it and buy it as things bounce around. Even if we move from growth scare to something a little more dire? I don't believe that's going to happen. So I'm not in the camp of a recession. But you're making a bet. This is making the bet.

I'm making an investment that even if it does, if we do go into a recession and the stock goes to 150, I can buy more there. On January 1st, we thought this would be the year that finally the iceberg cracks and the liquidity comes back and it's capital formation and new listings and

and secondaries and PE companies start getting exits. Okay, that might be second half story. That might be a 2026 story. We don't know, but they already ripped $40 out of the price of the stock. So if you missed the

The huge run-up that J.P. Morgan has experienced over the last 10 years, they're giving you another crack at it. Meanwhile, yield curve has actually steepened, which for their core business is very good. And if you're really worried about the economy, quite frankly, this is Noah's Ark.

Not the Titanic. So this is where the capital goes when people are worried about the economy and not vice versa. Let's take a break. We do have more moves coming up as well, which I promise you that we'll get to. I've still got calls of the day. Josh is going to take us back to his best stocks in the market list as well. He's doubling down, so to speak, on three names on that list. We will tell you which one's coming up.

And now, a next-level moment from AT&T business. Say you've sent out a gigantic shipment of pillows, and they need to be there in time for International Sleep Day. You've got AT&T 5G, so you're fully confident. But the vendor isn't responding, and International Sleep Day is tomorrow. Luckily, AT&T 5G lets you deal with any issues with ease, so the pillows will get delivered and everyone can sleep soundly, especially you. AT&T 5G requires a compatible plan and device. Coverage not available everywhere. Learn more at att.com slash 5G network.

Are you still quoting 30-year-old movies? Have you said cool beans in the past 90 days? Do you think Discover isn't widely accepted? If this sounds like you, you're stuck in the past. Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide. And every time you make a purchase with your card, you automatically earn cash back. Welcome to the now. It pays to discover. Learn more at discover.com slash credit card based on the February 2024 Nelson report.

My side hustle brings in over six figures. About $10,000 a month. Over $500,000 since its beginning. Find your hustle with CNBC Make It's new online course, How to Start a Side Hustle. Three industry experts break down proven paths to success. There's a tremendous amount of opportunity out there. And help you choose the one that fits your life, schedule, and goals. Find your own path to building multiple income streams.

Register at CNBCMakeIt.com slash Side Hustle. Special offer ends April 1st. We're back. The Dow is still below 41,000, as you saw there, first time since September of last year. Let's knock out some more moves. Lamb Research, we'll just finish this tech talk.

thing up. You bought more lamb. Yeah, the consistent theme is we're buying. We buy weakness. We like to buy stocks when they're down $3 billion in backed up shipments for this company. It's an AI play. Incredible margins, up to 48%. That's a record. They're buying back shares. They're paying dividends. And importantly, if you're concerned about tariffs, they had 41% of their business in China in 2023. That's down to 31% now. So a lot of reasons to like this name here, Scott. Okay. Jason Snipe, you bought more loaves. I did.

Same store sales were positive for the first time in two years. So I really liked the print. The pro segment, which one of the segments I really paid attention to, was up almost 10%. That's the second quarter in a row we got high single-digit growth.

The other thing that I know has been an overhang for a lot of these names is obviously mortgage rates. They're down 30 years down for six straight weeks. Let's see how that continues to play out for names like this. All right. Good segue into our calls of the day with which begins with Invitation Homes, which got upgraded to outperform today, was at neutral and that was at Mizuho. The price target moves up a little bit to 36 from 33.

we think just yes so the way i own invitation homes and other reaches in my own ira comes they don't want to uh... i don't want to pay the higher tax on the distributions uh... but this is a three-and-a-half percent dividend yield not high for a week but i think it has a better growth story the most reads this is single-family rental homes they have a portfolio of eighty thousand homes in desirable suburban locations mostly in the south and in the west

It's annualized at 8% a year total return for the last five years, so the dividend is important to that calculation. And the stock has really bided its time in this low 30s level. I think ultimately it breaks out when people feel better about the housing market and they want to own REITs again. What about Pfizer, which was reiterated today as an underperform at Wolf, which you own as well?

Yeah. It's not like the worst stock on earth. It stopped going down, interestingly. It's not going up like a lot of healthcare stocks did.

from the start of this year. So I missed out on that rotation by literally owning the worst healthcare stock in the world. But 18 times trailing PE, 10 times trailing EV to EBITDA. They've had huge earnings challenges because they bet the ranch on COVID and that ship has sailed. They haven't replaced it yet with a robust enough pipeline for people to start taking their estimates higher. But that's, I think,

how I get bailed out of this thing. I'm flat. I don't want anyone to feel bad. I have much worse stocks. But just the way that this company is being treated by investors right now, it's like a ghost. But I think ultimately, this is the type of stock where when it does turn, it'll move too fast to catch it. And so that's what I'm positioned for. I don't think it can get worse. - Bryn, let's do Roblox real quick, 'cause it's pretty clear that Moffat Nathanson hates this stock.

They reiterate it sell. I mean, I'm just telling it like it is, people. Price target goes to 40 from 34. However, again, 40.

from 34, so they bump the price target, but they reiterate the sell. They talk about Roblox has a problem, they say. Too much unpaid engagement, needs advertising growth to come quickly to justify the valuation in which it currently trades. And the demo, though evolving, is not mass market and likely won't be anytime soon. The business today is nearly 100% funded by just 5% of the audience. That doesn't sound like a stock that you'd still want to own.

Yeah, none of this is new news. I actually read the piece and his price target aside, I thought it was actually a balanced piece. And I think that when you look at a company like this, his risks are actually also the opportunities. And at the end of the day, he is saying that they are not going to be able to monetize ad spending, which Dave Bazzucchi, they've been very judicious on that. I think one of the reasons is they don't want to

disrupt the player experience. And so that is a risk that over time they cannot broaden that advertisement base. I think they will. I did think it was funny though, because he said 81% of the users are under 25. And so that's not mass market. I don't know what better demographic you could have between under 25 and

And so I think that he also raises his earnings guidance quite meaningfully. And so I think with a company like this, where I see the positives, I see huge growth in Asia. It continues to be one of the stickiest platforms. They do gaming, but platforms. And I think

you know, Dave and team have been really clear that they are going to be slow rolling out the ad spending because they want to do it right. And so for that reason, I'm definitely not selling the stock on this report. If anything else, I think it balances out what one person sees as risks, other people see as opportunities, which is how I view it today. All right. We got you. That's why there are two sides to every trade. Bryn, thank you. To the headlines now with Sylvana Hanau. Hi, Sylvana. Hey, Scott. Good afternoon.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is in Canada today meeting with a group of seven allies as tensions ramp up over the president's trade policies. Now, he will be there for two days of talks with diplomats from Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan. Canada's foreign minister and the official host has promised to raise the issue of tariffs in every single meeting, as well as how the G7 can support Ukraine against Russia.

Meanwhile, NBC News has learned the White House directed the U.S. military to draw up options for increasing the presence of American troops in Panama. The Trump administration's goal is to diminish China's influence while reclaiming the Panama Canal. And a coalition of 21 Democratic attorneys general are suing the Trump administration to stop the dismantling of the Education Department.

Department. The lawsuit filed today says the administration's move to cut about half of the agency's workforce takes away necessary services, resources and funding that students need in the name of stopping waste and fraud. Now, the White House has yet to respond for comments. Scott, I'll send it back to you. All right, Savannah, thanks so much for that. Savannah, now up next to check in on Josh's best stocks in the market list. We are back after this quick break.

And now, a next-level moment from AT&T business. Say you've sent out a gigantic shipment of pillows, and they need to be there in time for International Sleep Day. You've got AT&T 5G, so you're fully confident. But the vendor isn't responding, and International Sleep Day is tomorrow. Luckily, AT&T 5G lets you deal with any issues with ease, so the pillows will get delivered and everyone can sleep soundly, especially you. AT&T 5G requires a compatible plan and device. Coverage not available everywhere. Learn more at att.com slash 5G network.

Are you still quoting 30-year-old movies? Have you said cool beans in the past 90 days? Do you think Discover isn't widely accepted? If this sounds like you, you're stuck in the past. Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide. And every time you make a purchase with your card, you automatically earn cash back. Welcome to the now. It pays to discover. Learn more at discover.com slash credit card based on the February 2024 Nelson report.

We're back following three names on Josh's best stocks in the market list. They're down this week like many other things are. Again, these are names that have already been on your list. But yeah, you want to talk about AutoZone, which Jason owns, by the way. But go ahead, cook some more. So Jason knows that this is not just recently one of the best stocks in the market. This is like a perennial all star. And I wanted to highlight three names that are finding support.

at important trend lines because in this kind of market, if you want to buy strength, you should be buying strength intelligently. ASIO is up 10% year to date. It's only 5% below its 52-week high. Importantly, it is finding strong support at its 50-day moving average, which you can see in blue right there. It's got another level at the 200, which is not far below. This is an extremely profitable company, net margins of 14%, 23 multiple, which is not terribly expensive.

expecting three percent of its growth this year i think it'll find that support you want to go next uh... live nation yeah live nation okay looking for support at the fifty day take a look at this folks

This is a stock that has been on the list pretty much for the last six months for the most part. It's above its 200-day, but its RSI is completely washed out. Relative strength is down at 21. In trading, we say around 30 is an oversold stock. So this is extraordinarily oversold, down 11% on the year, down 12% in just the past week. But again, look at where it is relative to that support level, that 200-day oversold.

I think she could hold. The last one I want to do is Starbucks. We're looking for support here at the 50. This has been an incredible performer since they swapped out the CEO for Brian Nickel, who is arguably the best living CEO in the QSR game. Looking for support at that 50, also keeping above the 200. RSI is 28.

completely washed out on a relative strength basis, but still, interestingly, up 6% year to date. Not a lot of consumer discretionary names you could say that about. So these are three names still on the best stocks in the market list, pulling back to important levels of support. If the buyers stay here, I think those will all three be pretty good opportunities once the market gets better. All right. We appreciate the update very much. We will take another quick break. Santoli is on the other side with his midday word.

Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli has sat down here post-9 with us. So Dow's given up 41,000. And the Treasury secretary today just didn't sound that concerned about this market turmoil, and even if it continues a little bit more. Yeah, there's no doubt that they're not going to try to jawbone it and rescue it. And the market also continues to resist true washout-type action. Whether that's good or bad remains to be seen. I mean, today you've got 40% of stocks up, the equal weight's outperforming.

it's actually you know in sort of the big nasdaq stocks it's sort of you know the beatings will continue to morale improves type of action so more the same i you know i think we are at that point was talking about that you know yesterday with you scott about down ten percent

To go much lower in a quick fashion from here, you probably need to see the real economy start to buckle a little bit or see the credit markets anticipate the economy buckling. And so now that's the game we're playing. We're scrutinizing every basis point in the high yield spread to see if it's sort of really flagging something scary or just the normal kind of following of equity volatility. Well, you make a good point.

uh... because it speaks to what the treasury secretary also talked about the first answer first one of the first couple answers was were focused on the real economy and that's why the pain threshold if you will hasn't been reached

As it relates to the stock market, if you have a boil over a spillover into the real economy, then maybe the conversation is different. Well, absolutely. I think the issue for an investor is you're not going to get that evidence until it really starts to pile up. And by that point, it could become somewhat self-fulfilling. Therein lies the problem. But also, you know, you have the administration sort of deciding to choose a target that seems more attainable.

Right. And so if you start to say, you know, we're going to we're going to long term create better economic conditions, then the test is far off. And you can say that you're not playing for short term gains in the stock market because you aren't going to get them. Yeah. All right. I'll see you at three. Good stuff, Mike. Thanks, Mike Santoli. Straight ahead, we have stock picks for the long haul, at least according to Morgan Stanley. They list a number of names to own over the next couple of years. We do have ownership in a bunch of them. We'll tell them next.

Do have some breaking news out of Washington. We'll go to Eamon Javers at the White House. What do we know, Eamon? Scott, President Trump says he's not going to change his mind on those April 2nd reciprocal tariffs. The president is in a meeting right now with the secretary general of NATO. Reporters are in the room and we're just getting a little bit of indication of what he's saying. He's just told reporters he's not going to change his mind on those April 2nd tariffs. Also, in terms of markets, he says there will be a little disruption, but it won't be very long.

And that kind of mirrors what we heard from Treasury Secretary Scott Pesent on CNBC earlier today, in which he said this is a smallish period of turbulence in the markets and it's not going to redirect the way the administration is thinking about tariffs. So if you were looking for the Trump administration to blink, they're not blinking today.

Scott? Eamon, thank you very much. I just want to get a comment on this. Guys, you know, Josh, the idea of just a little disruption. In some respects, you play with fire a little bit and think that what's happening is only going to be a little disruption. But at some point, you know, if the economy starts to weaken, you may not have full control over either situation, either the economy or the market. Yeah, they're betting that they'll be able to

that we can tailspin and then pull ourselves out. You need to understand that the intellectual hero for a lot of these guys is Javier Millet. And there's this idea that we can produce a J curve, where for two or three quarters, the economy falls as you do these necessary operations to rip out wasteful spending, shut down bureaucracies, cut red tape. And then all of a sudden, the

the benefits of that start to shine through. And just like a J, you're headed down, you're headed down, and then whoop, and you not only go back to where you started, but you then exceed to the upside.

That's the bet. Javier Millet was at CPAC gifting Elon Musk a chainsaw. None of this is coincidental. This is what they think they're going to pull off. I don't know what they think their time frame is. Presumably, it's going to be before the midterms that we start to feel the silver lining of all of this. So maybe they have it within them to go all year long like this.

My personal opinion is probably not, but I just want people to understand the mentality and what they're thinking they're going to be able to pull off. Maybe it'll work. I don't know. Detox. Worked in Argentina, but we're not Argentina. A little disturbance, a little disruption. We'll see what the market makes of all that. We'll take a quickie. We'll come back with finals. All right. For final trades today, we're going to go through that Morgan Stanley 30 for 27 list. Stocks that they think you should own for the next couple of years. Visa, Bryn, is yours. That's your final trade.

I love it. So I think Visa's gotten caught up. It's the third largest holding in the XLF. As people have sold off financials, it got caught up in that. Low CapEx, high margins, moat. Buy on the dip. All right. Thank you. Jason Snipe, Blackstone's yours on the list.

Blackstone. Blackstone is down 20% year-to-date. We've talked about private equity and kind of what's going on with the price action, but pipelines continue to build. Net excess will grow. I like this one. All right, Kev. Lilly? Yeah, we all know that Eli Lilly has dominated the pharma space. The momentum's not slowing down. Beyond weight loss, they've got a pipeline of Alzheimer, oncology, autoimmune system. I like Morgan Stanley's call on this one, Scott. Okay, Live Nation was also on the list, but we already talked about that because it's on your best stocks list.

Amazon, Analog, Apple, Boston Scientific, Coca-Cola, Progressive, Microsoft, Walmart, Chipotle, MasterCard are the others. And your final trade is? Invitation Homes. Your invitation to profit. All right. Is that good? Yes, good. I'll see you on Closing Bell. It's going to be an interesting last hour. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern, only on CNBC.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Find your hustle. CNBC Make It's new online course, How to Start a Side Hustle. Three industry experts break down proven paths to success. Get out there and do it. Go to cnbcmakeit.com slash side hustle. Special offer ends April 1st.