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Carl, thanks so much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour, stocks and this trade war. Markets remaining unsettled yet again today. We're, of course, trading it with the Investment Committee. And joining me here at Post 9, Josh Brown. Bryn Talkington is in the house today. And Joe Terranova. Let's check the markets here. We started to come back a little bit, but we are red yet again. S&P down by 1.5%. There's the Nasdaq bottom of your screen, which is, you know, the tech has been really in the crosshairs here recently.
So, you know, Josh, I guess anything associated with growth and the economy has been under pressure. The president posted a few moments ago that Mexico is not going to be required to pay tariffs on anything that falls under the USMCA until April 2nd. That really did little to soothe the market.
Wall Street Journal today says the recession trade is back on Wall Street, which you start to wonder whether some of the damage has already been done. J.P. Morgan, they have begun to model the recession probabilities, which are going up. BCA Research today says we are officially on recession watch. What's your thought on this market? What do you want to tell people?
So, I don't think that you have to write with permanent ink recession because I don't believe that we're going to be doing this tariff stuff come summertime. I think this is like the opening act of the reality show that is going to be this presidency. It's getting tons of headlines. People are having a lot of fun with it, you know, in the political media. But in the real world, it's not enjoyable for anyone. And
the voices within the administration outside the administration will get louder just basically saying all right we all get it um it's enough already the enough already argument i think will eventually win out and we'll stop with these deadlines april 2nd april 8th all that's going to come to an end at a certain point and i don't think you could do enough damage between now and then to put us into a recession given how strong the labor
market is, given how much liquidity there is out there, given how much the animal spirits are pent up and ready to roar in corporate America. So I think we'll get through it. You just have to look through it. I'm very proud to tell you that between the inauguration and today, I have placed zero trades in any direction related at all to my opinions on tariffs.
I plan to be able to say that even a month from today and two months from today. And I genuinely think that that is the smart thing to do for most investors. If you're locally very focused on industrials, obviously you don't have that luxury. Like if you're running a book and you're trading those stocks, there are going to be huge short-term impacts and you will have to react to it. I just don't have to. So, Brian, if you look at where this –
whole conversation within the market within the market is most acute on its several areas I mean small caps the Russell 16 percent off a bit high wolf research today of that group says not convinced the ultimate lows been made on banks are down big private equity is down big text down big take your pick what's not down I mean the dollar's down to right so it's everything US is down I think is relates to small caps
I've been really consistent since last year. I did not think that was the trade. I think we were too late cycle. I think there's too many headwinds for small caps. And so I would still stay to the side of that. I think as it relates to the tariffs, though, I actually disagree with Josh.
I think this is just the beginning. I think if you go back and look at 2018, I think we all have short histories. 2018 was incredibly volatile. We had eight drawdowns between four and 15 percent. Four of those drawdowns were 10 to 15 percent. A lot of that was around tariffs. And actually, those tariffs in China stayed. They stayed through the Biden administration. I think what we're going to start to see is in April, one of the
executive orders Trump signed on inauguration day was a America first trade policy memo. And that memo is expected to come out April 1st, which goes through every country, looks at every type of tariff. And so I think we are just getting buttered up for more. Well, it just depends what you think about and what they think their pain threshold
Right. If we if we continue to have an unsettled market that gets worse. Right. If the economic data continues to get worse, where you have some of these recession trades seemingly becoming closer to a reality.
What does that mean? We did not. That did not occur in 2018 at all. There was no Trump put there. I think as it relates to his, he's going to be a single term president. He has a very strong mandate that he wants to try to say the U.S. needs to pay less than they've been paying. And I think it's going to be uncomfortable. So I think I think a 2018 kind of scenario is it should should be on investors'
ideology. I mean, are you getting more defensive within the market now as a result of that? No, because I'm going to sit still right now. And so I think it's going to be ultimately like 2018 was opportunistic. Apple was down. Facebook was down. You have good opportunities. But I think that this is not 2024. This is 2025. And I think this playbook will not be short lived on the trades because we haven't even really started talking about China export controls. And I think that's one of the other reasons that NVIDIA continues
to me trade incredibly terrible, even though their earnings are one of the best earnings in all of the markets. I mean, the SMH is below its 200-day. It's more than 20% off its high. Joe, what do you want to riff on?
Well, I think unfortunately the market is still searching for leadership and that's the most important thing. The leadership can't come from Europe. The leadership can't come from taxable fixed income. I've spoken to several taxable fixed income money managers this week, high yield, investment grade, seeing a lot of inflows. So the market is struggling with the uncertainty. We've got this dynamic, good cop, bad cop.
market goes up market goes down. I agree with both Josh and Bryn. I think it's a moment to kind of sit back and see where the next leadership is going to come from. I
I do think you have to kind of be aware of what the labor market might look like in the coming months. We're not really going to get the glimpse of it tomorrow, but the effect of Doge and the layoffs and the tens of thousands, that's going to begin to hit in the March and April reports, and that certainly is going to show the economic contraction. So with that said, I think the possibility exists that maybe it's the quality factor, maybe it's the bond proxies that take the leadership position,
overall itself. Last point on all of it, it's interesting because we've got this technical formation that everyone's talking about. And if we could show this chart from this week, you have the 200-day moving average, which sits at 5731. You have a series from
tuesday wednesday and today of higher intraday lows each day we went down we challenged the 200 day we held we held we held i don't know i don't know bryn i don't know josh if it can be that easy in my experience you actually need to see the flush below to get the tradable bottom the problem is is you know you have all these areas as i said
The KBW is down 7 percent this week. Citigroup and Bank of America are each down 10 percent or around there week to date.
So those have been weak. The private equity names thinking that, well, all of this uncertainty within the economy, what was thought to be almost a layup trade and was certainly treated as such after the inauguration. Hey, there's going to be more deals. There's going to be more realizations. Private equity hasn't been able to do those for the last couple of years. So the flow is just going to be endless. Not so fast.
They're keeping the Biden era rules in play on M&A and stuff like that for now. But with the uncertainty alone, private equity stocks, KKR is down 11.5%. Carlisle, that's yours, down nine. We can start there with the financial stocks. They are a tell on what the outlook on the economy is. Yeah, I sort of agree with that. But the one caveat I would add to what you just said, Judge, which is obviously, of course, true,
is that most of these stocks are up at least 50% over the last 12 months. So being in an 8% drawdown or an 11% drawdown, it's not quite as end of the world-y as you might think if you're just looking at like a year-to-date chart. So yeah, they're way off the highs. But I think people should be reminded this was the second best sector last year, did better than big cap tech.
And these stocks still, if you pull the lens back, still look pretty good. Many of them still under accumulation. I've been talking about insurance stocks lately. Those haven't had the same pullback that, let's say, private equity stocks have. So you have to be a little bit more selective also. One thing that we're not talking about is this newfound obsession amongst investors
lot make and by the one maskin and that's it to talk about the ten-year is a bang if it's a few falls they will point to it and say see that's proof that those is working and the u_s_ treasury bond is a better credit now where
i would say no if the ten-year yield continues to force because people are really worried about the economy and is one hundred percent not a vote of confidence in whatever does is doing all that's and so we're going to get a job support at the end of this week
And that's going to have a really big impact on what the 10-year does, in my opinion. And quite frankly, I don't think we're going to be throwing a ticker tape parade for Doge if we lose another 10 or 15 basis points in that 10-year yield on the heels of a nasty jobs report. I didn't love what I saw with Challenger. Didn't love ADP. Probably not going to love what happens Friday. Don't think it's catastrophic. But, Judge, to your point, like,
that's going to continue to make it tough for the financial stocks if the bonds start pricing in bigger and bigger and bigger recession chances. Let me just cover a couple of things. The Treasury Secretary, you mentioned him, Scott Besson, he's speaking as we speak here in New York at the Economic Club. It started at 12 noon. We're monitoring that for headlines. And then he's going to be on Squawk Box tomorrow morning at 7 a.m. to speak more directly about all of the things that we're talking about right now. The Beige Book yesterday had...
Numerous mentions of uncertainty. We have the layoff news today. S&P Global talks about the growth prospects being strained after the tariff plunge. You wanted to weigh in? Yeah, well, I think Josh honing in on the 10-year is incredibly important. If we start getting the 10 years coming down, if it's coming down because the jobs number is bad, that all of a sudden then puts the Fed in a much more complicated position
position because are they it's priced in what three three rate cuts. Oh they're they're in a pickle now right. I mean a pickle because they're now they're worried about growth slowing but at the same time they're worried about inflation picking up. So I think they're going to have to pick the poison and I think if we get a bad a few bad jobs reports right it is very lumpy. The Fed will pick the jobs number over inflation because the inflation number the two percent is a made up number anyway. And I think they want to keep the jobs the jobs in
And I think that that's going to be really important. So there is definitely a Fed put this year. We'll see what happens. But I definitely think the Fed is in a big pickle this year. I mean, you could look at some of the retail trades. Gap's been terrible. Target's been terrible. Macy's bad. They just had weak guidance as well. So you pick.
the places within the market that you want to be gaps up today but nonetheless you get my point i mean the other day it was down a whole heck of a lot well the state of retail is you have to have the ability to manage margins in an environment where you're unsure of the effect of tariffs and then the hyperscalers are able to capture the market share and we've seen that clearly in the case of walmart otherwise you're trading down to off price
and the overall environment of higher for longer. I do believe that lag effect, we're beginning to feel the effect of it. Look, the administration is going to come back and they're going to basically say, we wanted lower oil prices. We wanted check,
Check, check the box. We wanted to Fed the cut. The box will be checked on that at some point. The ink is, right, they're putting new ink in the fountain pen. There you go. And we have lower yields. So, in effect, they're going to call that a success in what they're doing. So would you buy the weakness in the banks?
Would you buy the JP Morgans or the Goldman's? Would you buy the private equity stocks? Everything that I'm doing is reliant on how I observe momentum. And I keep saying to you, I don't see the V in momentum. I see the U. I want to see leadership evolve from somewhere else within the equity market. And I would love to see a flush below the 200-day moving average.
That means you're going to get everyone out. At that point, what am I looking to do? In the financial sector, I am looking at names in the private equity space. I am looking at some of the asset managers. I told you yesterday I want to buy Amazon at some point. I think that's the mag seven when you combine anthropic
cloud services and the ability to step into live sports programming. That's the one mag seven I want to own. So I'm waiting for all of that to unfold. But I think you get that flush first. We've had the Nasdaq below its 200 day. It was a couple of days ago. Well, I did that a lot of a lot of the the non-discretionary capital is going to react to the S&P. No, I understand. But I mean, the S&P is driven a lot by what happens in the Nasdaq.
Because the names that we're talking about at the top of the market cap space, the NVIDIAs of the world, everybody owns down 25% from its high. Alphabet 16, Amazon 16, Microsoft 14 and a half. I mean, Apple, not quite as much. I'll get to Tesla in a minute. But what do you want to say?
I have more financials on my list than almost any other sector right now. And I think, back to my earlier comment, like, yeah, they're in drawdowns, but they are nowhere near being in downtrends. And, like, if I give you some of the names that are still firmly, statistically, in uptrends, just in finance, it's capital markets, it's financial services, it's LPL, it's intercontinental, interactive brokers. Robinhood's still in an uptrend.
Aon and AJG, Gallagher, these are insurance names, both in uptrends. BlackRock still looks good. So, like, it's—I still think, Scott, when you see markets that are acting like this, I still think, from my playbook, I'm not looking for what just got hit the hardest.
I'm not like, oh, what semiconductor stock just got rocked for 40%. Let me throw that in the book. I'm not saying that can't work. I'm still looking at the stocks that are holding up the best, and I'm finding them, believe it or not, in industrials, and I'm finding them in finance. And there's nothing wrong with that. It gives you thousands of stocks to choose from. Hold on one second. You just bought an insurance name, didn't you, the other day? Didn't we highlight that? From the insurance space. What was that one again? Kinsale, small cap. Not on this list, but...
Stock looks great. Look, the old playbook, people have to shake this. The playbook from 2023, that worked well. Anytime the market got a little shaky, pick a MAG-7 and buy it. It's probably going to be up a week later.
I don't think that that's the playbook right now. The market's telling you that's not what's going to work right now. By the way, the Treasury Secretary is saying, quote, banks have been weighed down by unduly burdensome regulatory requirements, broken supervisory culture. There's a live picture of the Economic Club where the Treasury Secretary is speaking. We'll continue to bring you the headlines. But, you know, Joe, that remains...
One of the bullish cases around this group is that they're going to let banks be banks again. And they're going to remove a lot of these
regulations which have been deemed to be burdensome by investors, by the very CEOs, and by the regulators and the politicians. So I have my glasses on, I'm looking down because what also supports the ownership of financials and the reason that we have an overweight, it's our larger sector allocation and the strategy towards financials
is the earnings and revenue growth is actually there. Arthur Gallagher, the last four quarters, you're talking about 12%. Progressive, you're talking about 26%. How about Brown and Brown, 12%. Bank of New York Mellon, 15%. So the revenue growth, Aon, 26%. The revenue growth supports the allocation in the direction of this sector.
But this happens all the time. I think it's a really important point for investors is people are making or extrapolating why the financials are going down. We're going into a recession. No M&A. We have another LinaCon 2.0. These are just stories, narratives. And that's where this is a great opportunity when you're getting weakness. The Trump administration invests in a smart guy. They want deregulation. The two things, the reason why, one of the biggest reasons why private credit has grown
five-fold is Dodd-Frank and Basel III. Because all of a sudden, private credit is doing the exact business that the banks were doing for 40 years. The lending. The lending. They're replacing the... That's why it's gotten the name the shadow banking industry. Exactly. The only concern that I have is the absence of
M&A is troubling. It's understandable given the uncertainty. Delay. We think a delay, right? Yes, an early absence for certain. But there still is a belief. Why does it get better? Well, because you're going to get the deregulation. You're going to get theoretically a better economy towards the latter half. You're going to have the uncertainty that you have now, but it's not like the economy is completely falling apart. There's a growth scare. Okay.
It hasn't been proven to be otherwise yet. Right. The one thing about M&A, though, is that like and this was maybe just politics is, you know, J.D. Vance is actually in line with Lena Khan on quite a few things. Is this president wants middle class jobs? They want to grow jobs.
Do you think they all of a sudden want all this M&A that's taking jobs away? I think the M&A is going to be very, very, very specific on being able to create jobs, not to merge and then fire 30%. That's not going to apply. Let's talk about a couple other things that we haven't gotten to yet. I did want to get to Tesla. It's on a seven-week losing streak. It's the longest ever.
It was named today at Baird, which, by the way, has an outperform on the stock and keeps it there. They're not changing their rating. They're just looking at it as a fresh, bearish pick because they expect some near-term downward momentum to potentially continue. You have a chance here. If you truly believe that the
that these catastrophic monthly sales numbers are about to reverse with the release of the new Model Y refresh, and you will make a lot of money in this stock from the long side. If that's your thesis, like, pay no attention to Germany and Norway. Don't worry. When the Model Y refreshes, all those numbers are going to reverse. They could be up 100% month over month. If that ends up being true, what the bulls are saying, buy the stock right now.
Not everybody agrees with that, though. I would love to hear from you on this. This is way more than... I don't think anyone's buying this car, buying this stock with a 9,500 PE because of a Juniper Model Y.
or the smaller Model 3. Like if you're doing that, that's a dumb idea. People are buying this company because they continue to grow. They haven't been buying it lately. Right, but I mean, this has historically been when there's blood in the street, this has been an exceptional time to buy this company. And I think when you have robotics, which are first going to come out on their assembly line, the robotics, and if you listen to Jensen, what is all he's been talking about for months is robotics and all the money going into that. And so I think there's other verticals
that have not even, we haven't even seen besides the iRobot for a second, that are actually going to be growing the company longer term outside of just the car. You need to weigh, that you, investors need to weigh in part what this note mentions. Again, they still haven't outperformed on the stock. I'm quoting from the note. Musk's involvement with the Trump administration adds uncertainty to the demand side.
Is that long lasting? Who knows? So funny that two months ago that was a reason to buy the stock. Now it's uncertainty. Look how the same news must involvement with the White House is super bullish. Now, must involvement with the White House is uncertain. Which is it? They continue to believe that it's a core holding, though, because they see it as a leader in real world AI. So to your point, right. And put them on a scale. Yeah.
and decide which one weighs more over the longer term. At one point, people keep bringing up Germany, like there's people having signs not buying the Model 3. Well, the numbers have been terrible there. Right, but let's like, why are the numbers terrible? So just like understand there's the narrative that everyone wants to believe, which can be partially true, but also the Model 3 is not made in Giga Berlin. It's made in Giga Shanghai. In November of 2024, Europe put tariffs on
Chinese cars being imported of which the Model 3 got dinged. And so all of a sudden, the Model 3, which was a very good economical car, is now expensive. And so that does not get told as part of the reason. Everyone's just like, oh, everyone's holding fake signs that he's a bad guy. Retail, by the way, isn't giving up the ship, if you will, because they've been buying the dip, according to JP Morgan's retail trader tracker.
They use the word massive buying in Nvidia and Tesla. So, you know, the cohort of investor that has pushed stocks like Tesla way up and Robinhood up, which is yours, which was initiated overweight today, by the way, at Cantor.
And some of these other names doesn't seem to be dissipating. The retail investor still likes these stocks. - Well, the retail investor also has the zero-dated options available to them as a tool. So that's going to only increase the activity that you're seeing in the pure equity names themselves. Look, I think in totality, the MAG7 right now, it's in a very complicated position. You have to try and identify which one you ultimately will believe to be the winner.
I mean, Tesla is literally right back to where it was after that appreciation all the way up to 488. It's back to where it was the day of the midterm election. It seems to me that meta...
Meta seems to avoid a lot of the elevated volatility that we've seen in the last several weeks surrounding that Meg-7. Does that mean something? To me, it does. Looking at technical formations, I don't know if it's the relationship maybe that management has with the administration. You could factor that in. But there's certainly something to be said about their ability to navigate that volatile environment. Let me throw a couple other things at you. Our chart of the day is Marvell.
which gave a very disappointing revenue forecast. The stock is plunging. I mentioned the SMH is below its 200-day moving average. It's down 10% over the past month alone. It's down 20% from its high, which takes me to Broadcom, which is down again and reports tonight. How important is Broadcom's report at this moment? I think all it literally would do is give it a little bit of a bounce. I think the dynamic surrounding the semis is well entrenched.
We've negated a lot of the bullish trends. It looks to me as if Nvidia has been the one name somewhat insulated from entering a significant downtrend. I'm not saying it's still in the short-term uptrend,
longer term it is in an uptrend. Well, guess how much it's off? Guess NVIDIA is off 27% off of its 52 week high. Yeah. And I guess how much Broadcom is? Broadcom is- 27%. Right. And those are the two names perceived to be the winners. Those are the two names to perceive to be on the valuation basis.
the better one so i all i can tell you is we've been slowly reducing our exposure to send me some uh... given what i've witnessed in the current quarter uh... i can't imagine we would be increasing exposure to send these themselves on five names at this point kalypso or applied materials uh... bro qualcomm invidia and so i don't know if this is a full-blown bear market median the median mean
in the smh is right now in a 34 drawdown the median name which means a lot are significantly worse i don't i don't know that it's the all clear to just like close your eyes and buy them yet um
because you could have oversold stocks get more oversold. This could be a downtrend that lasts longer. The median RSI among these names is still 41. I want to see that like 31 before I just say, you know what, I don't care what's going on, one of these stocks to buy. I just don't think we've gotten to the bottom yet. But it's like, what is...
What is unique about this time is Marvell, this time last year they had 765 million in data center revenues. They had 1.365 billion. Nvidia crushed numbers, AMD is crushing numbers, but the market's like, we don't care. - This is why when you've had money coming out of semis, there has been more optimism about software. The great comeback that CrowdStrike had really took a beating the other day.
UBS cuts the price target, Josh, to $4.25. It's only a $25 drop down, but nonetheless, this stock had been in a nice uptrend. And here we are questioning it maybe at the moment.
Yeah, look, it's in this cohort of high beta, high octane growth stocks. And when they sell eight of them, the other two don't get spared. These things are traded in baskets. Also, you have a sell the news. You have a company that had really good earnings, but everyone expected them really good earnings. You know that based on how much the stock had gone up over the prior six months.
So that's really all it takes. Sell the news, profit taking, momentum washout. Why would CrowdStrike be higher? Makes no sense. What I do in situations like this, I already own it, so I'm not adding to it. I own it in the hundreds, low hundreds. But take the $361 mentally and just say, all right, to $36 stock, the average Wall Street price target, let's say, is like $420 to $440.
Can a $36 stock recover quickly to $42? Yes, obviously yes. So it's a big dollar amount. The shares have pulled back in the last week or two. But in the grand scheme of things, we're still in a major uptrend here. And I would not be reacting to sell-side price target cuts. We'll take a break. When we come back, I still want to get Bryn's take on some of these momentum names. I mentioned Robinhood today, but...
Palantir is down another 7%. Applovin is down another 12%. GE Vernova is down another 5%. So these high momentum, Vertiv, Vistro, we're watching all of them. We'll do that coming up. Plus later, Josh Brown is adding two new names to his best stocks in the market list. We'll reveal them coming up.
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Call or visit ComcastBusiness.com to learn more. Let's get that take from Brintz to start for certain on what's happening with momentum, which continues to unwind. If there's a bounce, it's fleeting. And it's been what we've been seeing in Palantir, as I said, down another 7% today. AppLovin for Joe, down 12.5%. Vistra, 7.5% down again. Vertiv, almost 7% today. Dell Technologies, almost 4% down.
Palantir, the air needed to come out of that balloon. Right? Let's just all be clear about that. That stock got way ahead of itself. You know, I sold a big position at the end of the year. The position I have left, I sold the April 110 calls, like,
20 points ago. I'm sure I can close those out at almost 100 percent. I just think this is really important for investors who are just buying what's going higher. I mean, that's just a greater fool's theory. It's like, why are you buying what you're buying? I think that momentum, Joe, he's got an earnings quality, but he has a quality. He has an earnings equality screen. Right. So and then he rebounds. Apple oven somehow made it on that.
But I will say, let's say for an ETF, if you rebalance quarterly, it automatically makes you have a discipline. I'm not sure. I think investors are learning what their discipline actually is. And so I think whether it's Palantir or, you know, crypto, if you're buying Bitcoin, understand it has multiple 50 percent drawdowns over the last 10 years. Why can't that happen now? It can absolutely happen. And so you've got to size everything correctly. Don't get shaken out, but also have a reason why you're buying it, except the other person just bought it the day before.
I'm going on Amazon right now. I'm looking for this book. It's called Buy High, Sell Higher. Absolutely. Buy High. You guys keep going. They made a movie out of it. So you have to understand the dynamics around these names. And here's what's interesting. Over the last week, you're listening, Brennan. I'll just speak to you about this. Over the last week, I've said Applovin and Palantir is going lower because I know how
The algorithms are programmed right now. They are programmed to force price lower. Here's the remarkable thing about both of these momentum names. Guess what? They're still momentum names. Palantir, Josh, not even below its 100-day moving average yet.
Apple oven today just got below its hundred day moving average. So you have to understand when you pull the lens back on these momentum names, they still look really good. Our entry price on Palantir is $16. Let me, let me just spin it this way then. Sure. Sure. Your entry price makes the trade still look great. Okay. In the bigger picture, can the NASDAQ's price look better with
without stabilization in these stocks? No. I've said that to you over the last week. I've told you there's no V. There's a U. Right now, the environment, you have all of these algorithms, which are a force. You might not like it, but they are. They're pushing price lower. There's no indication of a V-shaped bottom. It's looking like a U. And until something else steps forth
And replaces that what was leadership? No, the NASDAQ's not going to look good. There's another component to this. Just for fun, if you're ever bored and you want to laugh, go ask to 10 retail investors what Applovin does. Right. Like, just for the hell of it. Palantir, for that matter. So one of the phenomena going on here, specifically with some of these stocks, is they have a lot of owners who don't know why they own them other than their prices were going up. Right.
And that works really great on the way up. The problem is it works really poorly on the way down because the selling becomes indiscriminate and almost regardless of fundamentals. I wouldn't argue that these two stocks as a result have gotten cheap.
based on this selling, but they're not being valued by anybody on today's fundamentals. So I think you have a phenomenon where the retail crowd very heavily owns these via options and or margin, and that form of leverage forces a lot of fast selling. Yep.
What that ends up meaning is that they're not good barometers of anything. And I wouldn't be watching those names as the tell that the overall NASDAQ is about to look better or worse. For my money, I still think the price action in Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft are going to be more meaningful. And those stocks kind of just become a sideshow. They'll turn when they turn. All right. So we'll get to Bitcoin in a bit. But first, I want to get the headlines with Silvana Henao. Hi, Silvana. Hey.
Hey, Scott. Good afternoon. President Trump is considering a major change to the U.S. participation in NATO. Current and senior officials tell NBC News the president has discussed with aides the possibility of refusing to defend a fellow member that is attacked
if they don't spend a set percentage of their GDP on defense. Now, that's a major shift from Article 5 of the NATO Charter, which says an attack on any NATO country is an attack on all. A National Security Council official told NBC News, quote, President Trump is committed to NATO and Article 5.
The House voted to censure Representative Al Green for disrupting President Trump's address to Congress on Tuesday. Ten Democrats joined all Republicans in favor of the censure resolution, which is a formal way for the House to show its disapproval of a member's conduct.
And the mega hit Broadway musical Hamilton is canceling plans to perform at the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C. next year. Producers said in a statement the show is acting against President Trump's recent takeover of the cultural hub when he ousted its leadership and took over as chairman of the board. Scott, I'll send it back to you. All right, Silvana, thank you so much for that. Silvana Henao up up next. We do have an update. The Josh Brown's best stocks in the market list just added a couple of names. We'll tell you what they are next.
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All right, let's do the best. By the way, I found it. It's still available. Paperback. You can't get it in hardcover. You get the paperback, though. Okay. All right? Endlessly available, I'm told. I got boxes of them in my garage. All right, let's do the best stocks in the market list. For Josh, who has two new names.
Today, RTX is the first. I'll prompt you on the second, but tell me about RTX. You know what really grinds my gears, Judge? People have like these blanket pronouncements like, oh, the recession odds are going up. Therefore, industrials are probably going. Not really. Some of these stocks look even better this week than they looked last week. So let's talk about two of them. RTX, this is like
the merger between united technologies and rafi on now they can both supply by airplane parts to commercial and also kill a lot of people on party accessing double-digit revenue growth in three of the last five quarters if you think
that Europe and America have to continue to spend and Trump's gonna do this thing with the ships and like this is where money is going to be made. It's an unfortunate part of life but defense spending is gonna be more important, not less important as time goes on. Stock's 19 forward PE expecting 7% earnings per share growth, 12% next year and they are accumulating the stock. It's got an RSI of 50, not yet overbought, 3% above the 58%, above the 200. Yes, it's industrial.
But looks great. The other one I want to give you is Otis. This is another industrial elevators and the like up 10% year to date, 7% in the past month bucking the market trend. RSI is 64. They are buying the stock in green market, buying the stock in the red market. It's above its 50.
It's above its 200 and it's a 24 forward, 22 forward PE. So it's not like you're paying up for some sort of a momentum stock. I like this name, Otis. I think we're going to get a breakout to all time highs. And in the case of RTX, there are like multiple ways to win in that name, even if the headlines continue to be bad.
about geopolitical whatever so i like both these names and they work and they're both industrials josh is spot on now if you think about it what are we seeing now we're seeing goods over services we're seeing that the ism manufacturing is beginning to recover from the recessionary environment
You've got names in the industrial sector like Homet, like Republic Services, like Rollins that are working incredibly well. Heiko Corporation, another name. The industrial sector still is a sector of opportunity. What do you think, Bryn? Yeah, I think that's I mean, it's in the it's in the U.S.,
You've got momentum there. These are not expensive names. And so I think that when people are not pulling out of the market, going to cash as we rotate, how many people are going to continue to rotate to Germany? Right. I don't think that trade's going to last so long. Come back to the U.S. There's plenty of companies here to invest in. All right. We will take that break. I do want to talk to you about Bitcoin. I want to get your take on what you see happening there, because that's been really volatile. And we've got some calls to do as well. We'll bring that to you next.
All right, welcome back. Let's talk some crypto. JP Morgan today thinks that the pressure is going to remain on crypto for the near term, at least. You own, what do you own, the IBT? IBT, yep, IBT and Ethereum. You don't own Coinbase anymore? No. Okay. So what do you think? Do you agree with the call? Just look at the technicals, 82,000s, the 200-day for Bitcoin. You really can't look at IBT, it hasn't been around enough.
this is an asset class or this is security or whatever you're going to call it, a commodity, that the buyers come in on drawdowns and buy the dip every time. We've seen numerous 30, 50, 70 percent drawdowns. They come in every time and then it makes new highs. And so I think we definitely have a Congress that is pro-crypto. I think the SEC will be pro-crypto. The White House is pro-crypto. And so I think we're going to have
a good four years but understand volatility is the price of admission if you are going to tiptoe into this space what about josh brown is he pro-crypto that's the question don't you own some you own bitcoin don't you no we own it like we um we were one of the first rias to create a way for people to access it um we did that right before it topped for two years now it's twice as high so nobody's really mad at us but uh i i
I don't know. I keep hearing pro-crypto, pro-crypto. But in the meantime, the price action says, all right, sure. But everybody already understands that. So until they actually start to accumulate like a billion, two billion, three billion dollars worth of Bitcoin and like report that they're actually they own it. I don't know how much more mileage you get out of tweets and announcements. So tomorrow is like the event. Do you know who's going? Are you going? No. Do you know anyone that's going? I'm assuming Saylor.
I'm sure. So like tomorrow, is it a freak show? Is it all pump and dump people from Twitter or is it like Larry Fink? I don't know. Like we're going to find out together. Maybe all of the above. Yeah. So I'm in. I own it. I love you. Love you all Bitcoin people. All right. Let's do some calls. Some other calls. But besides the JP Morgan one, you got it again, Josh. 3M reiterated overweight today at Barclays. Best insulated from the tariff impact, they say. Or certainly on the list.
Yeah, very domestically focused. It's a turnaround story. I doubt that there'll be no fallout from tariffs if the whole economy slows. Of course, 3M will feel it. But the stock's hanging in there, acting better than most of its peers. And I think that's exactly why. And again, I'm not looking for the hardest-hit stocks to buy. I'm focusing on what's hanging in there the best.
Because if and when we turn, I think that'll be the new leadership. I want to stay long here. Freeport upgraded BRIN at Deutsche Bank today. Yeah, well, obviously we had the tariff talks yesterday.
I've been looking at this to add to it. I haven't done it yet. They have gold and copper exposure. This is a commodity. If you're going to play in the commodity space, you really want to buy them low. Don't follow the momentum. Sell them when they're running up. But this year at $36, $37, I think that this looks like a good entry point that actually could have some legs the remainder of the year. Joe, I got a few stocks for you, but the one that stands out to me is First Solar.
because the price target got cut by a bunch at Jani to 171 from 256. They still like it, but they've dialed back their expectations. I agree with cutting the price target. I disagree with them on liking it because I don't like it at all. It's near a 52-week low. It's down 52% from its high from last summer, and the momentum is broken.
Okay, say no more. Say no more. I don't think you have to. No. The setup is next. All right, let's do some setup because Costco reports after the bell as well today. It is on pace to end its ninth calendar quarter in a row positive.
Joe T owns the stock. Very high expectations here. And let's remember something with this stock. Three of the last four quarters, the reaction to good earnings has been a sell-off. Now, in each of those instances, you obviously wanted to take the other side of that.
This is a company that is clearly, as I said before, managing the margins, grabbing market share. And there's no reason to believe that that is going to discontinue. But be prepared tonight. You potentially could see a sell-off. That's an opportunity to buy. But you think this is still in the sweet spot of those questions about where the consumer is?
and just what's happening with the economy absolutely walmart and costco are differentiating themselves from the rest and they are taking dramatic market share from target which looks literally awful on the charts all right uh costco is as we see uh down one and a half percent we'll do finals next all right welcome back we'll show you the s p 500 because it just cracked its 200-day moving average as the market gets thrown around a bit by the uh
Tariffs are on, tariffs are pushed, tariffs are back on, tariffs are pushed. By the way, Scott Besson, I've mentioned that he's been speaking at the New York Economic Club. The Treasury Secretary says over the long run, quote, I'm not worried about inflation from tariffs. Quote, we could get a one-time price adjustment, he says. And then he goes on to say nothing is more transitory than tariffs if it's a one-time price adjustment.
Throwing out the T word. Here's an adjustment for you. See what happened to... We haven't seen the S&P below its 200 day since October of 2023. 334 trading days. So hello, darkness, my old friend. What's your final trade, Josh? I forgot. No, seriously.
Literally forgot. Pfizer, acting well today. All right, Brynn. One of my favorite ETFs, JetBee. If you're looking to diversify out of tech, it has a max cap of the sector of 17.5% positive for the year. Paychecks. All right. Closing bells now. I mean, the exchanges now. You know what I meant. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern, only on CNBC.
Thank you.
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