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cover of episode Trading the Volatility 3/7/25

Trading the Volatility 3/7/25

2025/3/7
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Halftime Report

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Bryn Talkington
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Scott Wapner
主持《Halftime Report》,领导投资委员会讨论市场趋势和投资策略。
Topics
Scott Wapner: 本期节目讨论了在特朗普总统宣布可能实施报复性关税后,市场动荡和波动的加剧。我们还讨论了在像Palantir和Applovin这样的股票失去动力后的动量策略。最后,我们现场收听了美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的讲话。 Bryn Talkington: 我认为我们正处于一个类似于2018年的时期,市场波动性很大。如果特朗普的经济和贸易政策成功实施,长期来看,经济和股市将会向好。但目前来看,市场不适合买入看涨期权,更适合卖出看涨期权。 Jenny Harrington: 我认为投资者没有意识到政府已经预示了这种动荡。他们仍然相信特朗普会像以前一样,将股市上涨作为衡量成功的标准。但现在看来,情况并非如此。政府更关心的是他们的政策和议程,而不是股市的表现。因此,作为投资者,我们需要弄清楚这种变化将如何影响市场,是整体下跌还是板块轮动。 Bill Baruch: 我认为市场已经经历了板块轮动,现在更接近底部。虽然关税消息和政策的不确定性仍然存在,但我认为市场很快就会触底反弹。短期底部可能很快就会出现,但长期来看,还需要关注政策的长期影响。 Jerome Powell: 美国经济目前状况良好,尽管存在高度不确定性。就业市场强劲,通货膨胀率正在接近2%的目标。美联储将密切关注各种指标,包括消费者支出和商业投资。美联储将保持耐心,等待更多清晰的信息,然后再调整货币政策。如果经济保持强劲,但通货膨胀没有持续朝着2%的目标移动,美联储可以维持更长时间的政策限制。如果劳动力市场意外疲软或通货膨胀下降速度快于预期,美联储可以相应地放松政策。 supporting_evidences Bryn Talkington: 'I feel like we have a 2018 2.0, which saw a ton of volatility.' Jenny Harrington: 'I think they weren't because we all believed that we were going to have Trump 1.0 again, where everyone believed that he marked his success to the S&P 500.' Bill Baruch: 'I think we're closer to a bottom than we are in the middle or the early innings of this fallout.' Jerome Powell: 'Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the U.S. economy continues to be in a good place.'

Deep Dive

Chapters
The Investment Committee discusses the volatile market following President Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariffs, debating the potential long-term impacts on the economy and stock market.
  • The market is experiencing volatility due to tariff announcements.
  • There is skepticism about the effectiveness of Trump's economic policies.
  • The S&P and NASDAQ are below their 200-day moving averages.
  • Investors are considering a shift from public to private sector reliance.
  • Market reactions are heavily influenced by political developments.

Shownotes Transcript

Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee debate the turbulent and volatile markets after President Trump announces reciprocal tariffs could start as early as today.  Plus, the desk discusses their momentum strategy after stocks like Palantir and Applovin lose steam. And later,  we take Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments live at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum. 

Investment Committee Disclosures)