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cover of episode Here's Why Uncertainty Is An Economic Killer

Here's Why Uncertainty Is An Economic Killer

2025/4/17
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Here's Why
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People
J
Joe Weisenthal
通过播客和新闻工作，提供深入的经济分析和市场趋势解读。
S
Stephen Carroll
Topics
Tobias Meyer: 美国经济政策的近乎每日变化给企业决策者带来了极大的挑战。这种不确定性使得企业难以制定长远规划，如同在浓雾中驾驶，缺乏方向。 Stephen Carroll: 经济政策的不确定性是经济的杀手。这种不确定性导致企业放慢投资和扩张步伐，增加经济衰退的风险。企业每天早上醒来都担心哪些行业会面临25%的关税，哪些国家的关税会高达100%。 Joe Weisenthal: 目前的经济不确定性包含两个方面：首先，虽然美中贸易环境的变化已成定局，但企业仍不清楚在这种新环境下如何获利；其次，更深层次的不确定性在于，我们甚至不知道政策变化的目标是什么。白宫内部缺乏一致的政策信息，不同派系有不同的优先事项，总统本人的政策意图也不明确。这使得当前的不确定性程度远超以往任何一次危机。 这种不确定性使得企业难以进行重大投资，例如开设新工厂、扩大生产规模或增加员工数量。此外，金融市场收紧，导致股票价格下跌，政府债券收益率上升，信贷利差扩大，增加了企业的运营成本。政策不确定性与商品成本上升叠加，进一步加剧了经济衰退的风险。企业只能采取保守策略，降低风险，储备资金，削减开支以求生存。 Stephen Carroll: 虽然市场波动性有所下降，但经济不确定性仍然很高，未来走向仍需观察。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The frequent changes in US economic policy create uncertainty for businesses, making decision-making difficult and causing them to slow down investments and hiring. This uncertainty is a significant factor in the current economic slowdown.
  • Daily shifts in US economic policy are creating uncertainty for businesses.
  • Uncertainty leads to delays in business decisions like building factories, ordering supplies, and hiring.
  • Uncertainty slows economic activity and increases the risk of recession.

Shownotes Transcript

The near-daily shifts in US trade policy have plunged markets into turmoil, and made businesses and consumers nervous about spending. What sort of damage does uncertainty do to the economy? And will we eventually get used to it? Co-host of Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast, Joe Weisenthal, joins Stephen Carroll to discuss.

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