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一个全新的“亚洲世纪”是否已经来临？很多迹象表明它的确已经悄然发轫。毫无疑问，世界的力量平衡正在发生着转变。

Is this the beginning of the Asian Century? There are many indications that it is. There is no doubt that the balance of power is shifting.

美国仍然是全球最大的经济体。曾几何时，它也是自由贸易最强有力的支持者。但时过境迁，它在种种决策中鼓吹的“美国优先（America first）”正日益嬗变为“美国唯一（America only）”。这一趋势在美国主张其利益的言辞论调中显而易见。

The United States is still the world’s largest economy. Yet, while it was once the strongest proponent of free trade, “America first,” with a tendency toward “America only,” now applies at the center of power. That is reflected by the tonality with which the U.S. asserts its interests.

欧洲则深陷内忧外困：内部挑战丛生，对外则缺少协调一致的经济政策。欧洲国家本就规模不一，视野不尽相同。英国脱欧进程中出现的混乱使情况更加复杂。如不进行根本性的改革，任何改善都是一纸空谈。

Europe is struggling with internal challenges and essentially has no uniform foreign economic policy. Given the different horizons of the large and small member states and the chaotic state of the Brexit proceedings, improvement cannot be expected without fundamental reforms.

相比之下，亚洲——特别是蓬勃振兴中的中国——已经锻造了强大的经济发展动力和自信心。自20世纪90年代以来，亚洲地区的国内生产总值增长三倍多，其中中国增长了九倍。伴随着经济的繁荣，数以千百万计的人们摆脱了贫困，步入了中产阶级的行列——然而这一伟大的成就在欧洲鲜少获得应有的认可。

In contrast, Asia – above all burgeoning China – has developed tremendous economic momentum and self-confidence. Since the 1990s, Asia’s GDP has more than tripled; China's GDP has even grown ninefold. This boom has lifted many millions of people out of poverty and enabled them to join the middle class – an accomplishment that rarely receives the recognition it deserves in Europe.

在技术领域，亚洲也迅速迎头赶上。中国的空间探测器在月球背面着陆就充分说明了这一点。迄今为止，没有任何其他国家取得如此成就。而在电信领域，中国也早已超越西方。在直接面向消费者的商业平台领域，这种成功模式的重演也将指日可待。

Asia is also rapidly catching up in the area of technology, as the landing of a Chinese rover on the far side of the moon demonstrates. To date, no other nation has accomplished such a feat. In telecommunications, China has long since outpaced the West. And it’s only a matter of time until this pattern repeats itself in the consumer-oriented platform economy.

随着“新丝绸之路”和“一带一路”倡议的提出，中国正在推进基础设施建设，这将惠及全球65%的人口。这一倡议将有可能成为人类有史以来最大的投资计划。

With the New Silk Road, the Belt and Road Initiative, China is enabling the construction of infrastructure that will reach 65 percent of the world’s population. This Initiative has the potential to become the largest investment program of all time.

亚洲其他一些国家所推进的发展战略也同样提出了明确的方向。印度正在实施 “Make in India”（印度制造）计划, 这是一项雄心勃勃的工业化战略。此外，印度尼西亚、越南和马来西亚的工业政策也都旨在实现增长和进步。日本和韩国已经跻身成为世界领先的经济体，尽管它们也面临着与欧洲主要工业国家相似的挑战。

The strategies pursued by other Asian countries also speak a clear language. India is implementing Make in India, an ambitious industrialization strategy. The industrial policies of Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia also aim for growth and progress. And Japan and South Korea are already among the world’s leading economies, although they face challenges similar to those confronting Europe’s leading industrial countries.

我们该如何应对这些变局呢？是抽身而退，采取孤立主义政策，甚至对亚洲公司在欧洲的投资施加法律限制吗？显然，像德国这样的出口导向型的国家，应该审慎权衡此类举措。

How can we best manage this change? By withdrawing into isolation or even by imposing legal restrictions on Asian companies’ investments in Europe? Well, export-oriented countries like Germany should at least carefully weigh such steps.

西门子股份公司总裁兼首席执行官凯飒（Joe Kaeser）就任德国亚太经济委员会（APA）主席，德国总理默克尔出席了就任仪式。

在我来看，有三点至关重要：

I see three important points:

首先，平等互惠奠定共识。只有遵循这一原则，才能维护协商合作的良性平衡，实现双赢。德国和德国的企业可以为亚洲国家及其企业在众多方面提供支持：比如领先的技术、投资以及通过本地化和培训带来的就业机会。德国的“双元制”教育体系将职业培训与在职实践相结合，在全球范围内广受赞誉。与此同时，在市场准入、保护投资和知识产权——即公平竞争领域，也必须谋求共识。日本与欧盟之间达成的自由贸易协定已为这一方向铺平了道路。现在我们需要循此先例，与中国签订自由贸易协定。当前正是开展开放和建设性对话的大好时机。为此，政府和企业必须密切合作。与过去一样，德国亚太经济委员会（APA）将在这一方面发挥作用。

First, reciprocity creates common ground. This is about a healthy balance between give and take, about win-win relationships. Germany and German companies have a lot to offer Asian countries and companies: leading technologies, investment, jobs through localization and training. Germany’s “dual” education system, which combines vocational training with on-the-job experience, is highly regarded around the world. Access to markets and protection of investments and intellectual property – in other words, fair competition – must become common ground. The free trade agreement between Japan and the EU paves the way. Now we need a free trade agreement with China. It’s high time for an open and constructive dialogue. To make this possible, government and business must collaborate closely. As in the past, the Asia-Pacific Committee of German Business (APA) will play a role here.

其次，适时应务塑造未来。随着世界变得日益复杂，变化的步伐越来越快，地缘政治越来越影响地缘经济，许多人也受到数字化浪潮的冲击。不论是气候变化还是城市化，在诸多领域，亚洲国家正面临着巨大的挑战。这也正是德国企业能够凭借多年的经验和创新能力可以提供帮助的地方。

Second, adaptability is the future. The world is becoming more complex, the pace of change is accelerating, geopolitics is increasingly influencing geo-economics, and many are overwhelmed by digitalization. The nations of Asia face huge challenges – from climate change to urbanization. And this is exactly where German companies, with their many years of experience and their innovation power, can help.

第三，协同一致凝聚力量。近几十年来，德国公司在亚洲取得了巨大的成功。这部分归功于亚太经济委员会的有效工作，他们在该地区建立了良好的关系网络，谙熟当地市场环境和市场需求。此外，“德国制造”也享有极高的声誉。然而，这些都不足以确保未来的成功。德国总理默克尔在慕尼黑安全会议上明确指出：“无论我们多么勤奋，多么伟大，多么出色”，如果我们强大的贸易伙伴不支持公平竞争，那都将于事无补。

Third, unity makes us strong. In recent decades, German companies have been highly successful in Asia. Thanks in part to the work of the Asia-Pacific Committee of German Business, they are well networked in the region and familiar with the local markets and their requirements. “Made in Germany” enjoys an excellent reputation. Yet none of this guarantees future success. German Chancellor Angela Merkel made the point very clearly at the Munich Security Conference: “No matter how industrious, how great, how super” we may be – it won't help much if powerful trade partners do not support fair competition.

因此，在欧盟建立起有效的外贸政策协调机制前，德国企业应至少采取共同一致的立场来维护其利益。

Until the EU establishes a coordinated approach to foreign trade policy, German business should at least adopt a common position to assert its interests.

对于德国企业来说，“亚洲世纪”既是机遇也是挑战。我们可以依托我们的创新和良好的声誉。但我们也必须有能力和魄力创建平等的伙伴关系，充分认识到全球化不是单行道，而是相向而行。在这之中，平等互惠是取得成功的关键所在。

For German companies, the Asian Century is both an opportunity and a challenge. We can build on our innovation and our good reputation. But we must also be able to forge partnerships of equals and recognize that globalization is not a one-way street. Here, reciprocity is the formula for success.

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西门子CEO：“亚洲世纪”是否已经来临？