California Braces for Decline in International Tourists
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President Trump may have taken a softer tone in his meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney this week, but whether that will quell the anger or bring Canadians back to the U.S. remains to be seen. California tourism experts cite Trump's nationalist rhetoric and trade policies for a projected 9% drop in international travelers this summer, with the sharpest declines among Canadian and Mexican tourists, who spend more here than tourists from anywhere else.

We take a closer look at the impact on California after this news. Welcome to Forum. I'm Mina Kim. Flights to California from Mexico, the U.K. and Germany dropped by some 25 percent in March compared to the same time last year. From Canada, they've already dropped by 15 percent, prompting Governor Newsom last month to launch a campaign directed at Canadian tourists.

Sure, you know who's trying to stir things up back in D.C., but don't let that ruin your beach plans. California, it's the ultimate playground. 2,000 miles from Washington and a world away in mindset. From our iconic beaches and national parks to world-class wine, food, and outdoor adventure, there's something here for everyone. Last year, nearly 2 million Canadians visited California because here in California, we've got plenty of sunshine and a whole lot of love for our neighbors up north.

Travel experts cite the Trump administration's annexation talk, tariffs, and border detainments for the decline. We look at the outlook for California tourism this summer and hear from you. Has anyone told you they won't be visiting the U.S. this year?

Joining me first is Mackenzie McMillan, travel advisor with the Travel Group based in Vancouver. Mackenzie, welcome to Forum. Thank you so much for having me. Glad to have you. So tell me, what are you noticing right now in Vancouver when it comes to travel to California? Yeah, so it's really...

Really began in about February. We had started to kind of hear from travelers who were a little bit apprehensive about visiting the United States. And then there was a quite sudden shift in consumer behavior. And we saw a pretty much near complete collapse of all future bookings to California and throughout the entire United States. We saw about 30% of our business canceled that had already been booked, and then about a 90% drop in all

future bookings. Are airlines adjusting too based on that? Yeah, so we're starting to see that now. I think airlines at the beginning were, specifically the Canadian airlines, primarily Air Canada and WestJet, which are the two largest airlines here in Canada, had been apprehensive about making any major changes. But we're now starting to see both airlines outright either reducing service or outright dropping routes.

into the United States. Some of those routes are into California and primarily newer routes that in the case of WestJet, they were looking to launch this year. So today, the news just came out that WestJet dropped nine of their routes that they were anticipating for the summer. So yeah, they're just due to a complete drop in demand. Wow. Mackenzie, what do Canadians give as their reasons for staying away? What are you hearing?

So there's two main reasons that we're hearing. The first reason is a general anger towards the U.S. government, towards the comments about 51st State, about annexing Canada, as well as the tariff threat. And that's where we started seeing reasoning right at the beginning of this, I guess we can call this a crisis at this point, for travel to the U.S. What we're seeing now is a lot more fear-based.

And a lot of clients are very concerned about just the act of crossing the border due to increased scrutiny at the border at both airports and at the land crossings for Canadians, either based on their immigration status, if they are not Canadian citizens but are maybe permanent residents here in Canada, but also about their personal views towards the U.S. government and that that concerns

could deem them inadmissible to the country. So one of the big aspects that we're seeing too is that that second reason is also causing a bit of a reduction in our corporate travel. So up until now, we hadn't really seen a drop in corporate travel. Obviously, being here in Vancouver, we have a huge amount of business between

British Columbia and California, whether it's the tech sector into the Bay Area or the entertainment sector into Los Angeles. And we're starting to see now that many companies are choosing not to allow their employees to travel due to the fear of issues that they could have at the border.

Wow. Well, let me remind listeners that if you want to ask questions or tell Mackenzie McMillan anything, he's just here for the very beginning of the show. And the time to do that is now by emailing forum at kqed.org, posting on our social channels, Blue Sky, Facebook, Instagram, or threads at KQED Forum, or by calling 866-733-6786, 866-733-6786.

Mackenzie, I also understand there is a Buy Canada movement. What is that? And is that also contributing to the decline in travelers, you think?

Oh, yes, absolutely. The Buy Canada movements began quite abruptly when the tariff threat sort of became a real issue in Canada. And it happened quickly. And as a Canadian, it's something I've never seen before, is a country really united in changing their complete consumer habits. As that relates to travel, it definitely fed into this sort of

emotional boycott of travel to the U S but it's also affected us based companies, uh, whether or not you're traveling to the U S. So we're seeing a lot of consumers outright trying to avoid us airlines, uh, whether or not they're flying to the U S but maybe flying onward to somewhere else, but also us hotel companies. So we are seeing, you know, certain travelers looking to avoid major us chains, um,

But then outside of travel on the consumer base here in Canada, we're seeing grocery stores move Canadian products front and center and American products either to undesirable parts of the store or completely off the shelves, which is the case with our liquor stores here in British Columbia. All California wines have been completely removed as well as tech products.

Kentucky Tennessee whiskey and a number of other liquor products from other parts of the U.S. Can you just give me a sense of what things would normally have been like at this time of year for you, Mackenzie? Absolutely.

Absolutely. We generally see a huge influx of travel to the US, especially between British Columbia and California going into the summer. So families heading to Disneyland or one of the many theme parks in California. We have people heading to Palm Springs, the Bay Area, San Diego. It's a huge amount of travel. From Vancouver alone in the summer, we have around 30 daily flights between five to six California destinations.

So that's San Francisco, Los Angeles, Palm Springs, San Diego, Sacramento, Orange County. Those are all places where we're having multiple daily flights and those flights would be sold out and they would be sold out throughout the summer. So this is a seismic shift in consumer patterns for California. Seismic shift. Wow. And I can probably guess why California would be a draw, but remind us why so many Canadians like to come to our state.

So I think there's obviously, you know, if you live in California, you know that it's an absolutely beautiful state. There's a lot of activities for every type of traveler down there, whether you're a family or you're a young couple, single travelers, friends going down for a weekend.

from here in Vancouver, the proximity of California is really probably the biggest draw for people coming. I think a lot more people travel from Vancouver than, say, Toronto or Montreal to visit California. But California does make up about 10% of

all Canadian travel to the U.S. annually, based on last year's statistics with the U.S. Travel Association and with Stats Canada here across the border. So California is an incredibly desirable place. And also for people in places like Vancouver,

there is a feeling of sort of a shared cultural connection. And that extends to other coastal states, Oregon and Washington as well, that it's a comfortable place, it's a safe place for people to travel. And so it's always been kind of

when we have clients here in Vancouver that are looking to go somewhere in the U.S., California is usually number one or number two on the list of desired destinations. Yeah, people have also cited our strong support of the LGBTQ community, for example, here as well. Absolutely, and I think that falls into the sort of shared cultural beliefs from here on the west coast of Canada. And I think that it probably is why...

travelers feel more comfortable visiting a state like California or a state like Hawaii coming from here than, say, some of the more conservative states that you'd see in the southeast of the U.S. We've got a call from John in the East Bay. Hi, John, you're on.

Hi there. Yeah, just a question, a reverse question about Americans traveling to Canada. I actually went there last summer at an incredible time, incredibly welcome, and would like to go back again. And I'm wondering what the appetite is in Canada for Americans to visit Canada.

John, appreciate that. Go ahead, Mackenzie. That's an awesome question. It's one that's been brought up a number of times and from friends that I have in the United States have asked me point blank, are we welcome in Canada? And the answer is yes. I think that most Canadians really are able to differentiate between the actions of the federal government, which is kind of in the catalyst of this whole situation, and individual American citizens.

I was just walking down the street the other day and the number of Washington state license plates up here over the last weekend, you know, Americans are coming and they are more than welcome. We were, you know, we are very used to having a quite a large influx of U.S. travelers in the summer here in Canada. And I haven't seen any sort of

push or movement to sort of reduce that amount for, or, or reduce the, the welcoming nature, um, that we have here. And obviously I can't speak for all 44 million Canadians, but, um, they're, they're definitely, you know, Americans are welcome. I would probably hesitate to voice any certain political opinions when traveling to Canada at the moment, because it is quite a, it's quite a emotionally charged situation, but, uh,

But by and all, Americans are always welcome here in Canada. Let me ask you your reaction to Governor Newsom's Canada campaign. Do you think it will work? Have you heard anything from your fellow Canadians about it and whether they think it's helpful or maybe cringy? Yeah.

I actually thought the – on a personal level, I thought the ad was quite refreshing. We have obviously seen a significant amount of outreach from suppliers in the United States sort of saying, we love Canada and we love Canadians. Please still come down. Unfortunately, I don't think it's going to move the needle that much. It only took me about three minutes in the comment section of that original post from Visit California to see that it's really not –

making a very positive impact here. I think most people understand where California stands, like where California lies on the political spectrum and where most people or many people in California stand as far as their opinions on what's happening. But it doesn't change the getting across the border. And I think for a lot of Canadians where the concerns about border issues kind of trumps everything.

everything else. And so I think at the moment, yeah, no pun intended, exactly. But I think that, you know, that sort of outreach is obviously appreciated, but it doesn't seem to really be affecting any sort of change in the way that Canadians are feeling at the moment. Mackenzie McMillan, travel advisor with a travel group based in Vancouver. Thanks so much. Oh, thanks for having me.

And listeners, a bit of news. As many have heard, there is a new pope. We have just learned the name. The new pope is Robert Francis Prevost. This pope is from Chicago and will be the first American pope. He was extraordinarily close to Pope Francis. Stay tuned to your public media station today to learn more about the new pope and what it means for the future of the Catholic Church. You're listening to Forum. We'll have more about California's summer tourism outlook after the break. Stay with us. I'm Mina Kim.

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Welcome back to Forum. I'm Mina Kim. We're talking about the outlook for international tourism in California this summer. California is actually bracing for a decline, as tourism experts cite, a more than 9% projected drop in international travelers because of fear, U.S. trade policies, nationalist rhetoric. The sharpest declines are expected among Canadian and Mexican tourists who actually spend more in California than tourists from any other country. We're talking about it with...

Pete Hillen, spokesperson for California Hotel and Lodging Association. Pete, really glad to have you with us. Great. Thanks for being here. Also with us is Haley Branson Potts, a staff writer for the Los Angeles Times. Haley, really glad to have you, too.

Thanks so much for having me. And listeners, you are welcome to join the conversation. As always, tell us, has anyone told you they won't be visiting the U.S. this year? Why? Have you noticed declining tourism? Do you work in the hospitality or tourism sectors? Are you suggesting even to non-U.S. friends not to visit?

Email your comments and questions to forum at kqed.org. Certainly if you have questions about California tourism, share those as well. Find us on our social channels at KQED Forum or call us at 866-733-6786, 866-733-6786.

So, Pete, according to Visit California, the nonprofit that works with the state to drive California tourism, California is the nation's number one tourism destination. In fact, in 2023, I read that domestic and international tourists generated some $13 billion in state and local tax revenue and that 1.2 million California jobs depend on tourism. So,

Pete, how would you characterize just how important tourism is to California's economy? Oh, it's huge. There's no doubt that it's one of the key economic sectors for the state and to some degree for the nation. You know, we're the fourth, I believe, economic...

engine in the globe. And so you look at that proportionally and what travel, tourism, hospitality really mean as a foundation for the state, it's hugely significant. And so

When we have kind of the headwinds and really the uncertainty that we're talking about today, it manifests itself even more than just California itself. Yeah. And Haley, give us a sense of how this uncertainty is manifesting itself. I understand Visit California and the governor's office released new numbers this week forecasting the year ahead for international tourism to California. What did their data show?

Correct. So they are predicting in 2025 a 9% decline in international visits compared with last year. So

That brings us down to about 15 million people. We are still recovering from a big drop in international visitation and visitation overall since the pandemic. So this is a big blow. Yeah. What does that add up to in dollars, do they say, with regards to 9%?

Sure. So this if if the 9 percent bears out, that would be a loss of about a billion dollars from 26 billion dollars spent by international visitors last year to 25 billion this year. And to be clear, that's still a lot of money. But again, we're.

We're still recovering from the pandemic. And, you know, you're seeing places like Los Angeles are facing severe budget crises right now. So this is a big deal. Yeah. What did the report point to with regard to the key reasons for the decline? Sure. In regard to international visitors specifically, it does cite the tariff policies. There's just a...

Kind of an international distaste right now for President Trump's economic policies. As Mackenzie mentioned earlier, a lot of fear about entering and exiting the country. Canada, you know, the government there, they actually updated their travel warnings to visitors a couple of weeks ago, and they warned that border agents have the ability to

search people's personal devices, to request passwords. So there's anger about the tariffs, but also concern about entering and exiting the country. And that's all reflected in this report. Yeah. Well, we've got calls coming in. Let me go to Tabam in San Jose. Hi, Tabam, you're on. Hi.

I think we just lost you, Tabam, but we will try to get you back. Listener Joan writes, I don't blame people for choosing to travel to other countries under the current circumstances. What countries are Canadians and Mexicans choosing to travel to instead of the U.S.? Do you have a sense, Haley?

Sure. So the people I've spoken to in my reporting, I spoke with another employee of McKinsey's agency, actually. She said that, you know, as far as Canadians, a lot of them are opting to go to Mexico. The ones who would have come to Palm Springs to enjoy the warm weather, they are heading to the beaches there. She said that she also...

had people rebooking to go to Costa Rica. Others are deciding to, you know, to fly, you know, farther to go to go to Europe. So they are certainly rerouting. But she said Mexico is kind of the prime, the prime destination for a change of plans. And tourists from Mexico, are they giving the same reasons essentially that Visit California is giving with regard to why they do not want to try to cross into the U.S. or fly into the U.S.?

Sure, certainly. I mean, it is just the rhetoric right now. You know, just as Canadians are citing all of President Trump's talk about the 51st state and his calling former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau governor, he has a long history of

of intense rhetoric regarding Mexicans. I mean, he started his former campaign by denigrating Mexican citizens who crossed the border. So people are just, they're just fed up. And so there's movements in Mexico and Canada to buy their own products and to stop traveling here. So Pete,

I understand that Visit California is projecting that domestic tourism will remain relatively flat, or maybe there will be an increase in that as well.

Do you see that actually playing a significant role in making up for the loss in international tourism? Or are international tourists sort of different in terms of their habits and spending here? They are. And I think the short answer is it's likely not going to make up for that difference. But I think to add on to a point that Haley's making is look at the context here is that during the pandemic,

we were shut down for about 18 months. And when you have that kind of impact, it doesn't rebound overnight. And so we were just sort of getting back to the level of tourism that was pre-pandemic. We weren't quite there. So recovering, not recovered. And now to have

have this sort of unforced error, if you will. It makes the decision for international travelers to come to the U.S., extends it out, that it's not just another bump in the road. It's a significant hit. And

and to answer your question, Mina, uh, international travelers are far more desirable because they tend to stay longer and they tend to spend more. They're traveling a longer distance. Um, and, um, I must say that our hotels, um, really welcome, uh, those extended stay, uh, for obvious reasons, but we're also, uh, to Governor Newsom's point, um, we're open for business. Our hotel ambassadors, they're ready to welcome, uh,

Anybody that is certainly can come and enjoy the fruits of California. Let me go to caller Tabam, who I believe is back. Tabam in San Jose, are you there? Yes, I am. Can you hear me? Go right ahead.

Okay. Yes, I'm originally from Iran, but I'm a naturalized citizen of 20 years. I have a sister who lives in England, and she wanted to come and visit me in September of 24. But because of Trump's previous presidency policies towards Iranians entering this country, even though my sister has a British passport and she's married to a British man,

She was not able to get the visa just because she had visited our mother in Iran the previous year. So I was disgusted by that. And it was my daughter's wedding and my sister was really coming to attend the wedding as well. So it was really a heartbreak for all of us. And then she said, well, I will try again and come, you know, in February of 25. And at that point I said, do not.

Do not go through this difficult process, and I do not want you to come and contribute to the economy of the United States under this president. Tabam. Sorry to hear that, and thank you for sharing your story. Pete, which California cities could the decline in international tourism hurt the most?

It's going to be different because California is a big geographic state with a fairly diverse tourism destinations, if you will. Obviously, in the recovery, not recovered yet mode, if you look at convention and business travelers, those really affected San Francisco, L.A., and to a slightly lesser degree, San Diego.

The reverse is sort of true now with the tariffs. San Diego tends to be a preferred destination. Canadians and our friends from Mexico and a little bit less so in San Francisco.

So I think we have to look at this in sort of perspective that it's not just a complete wash with Canada or Mexico that is happening right now. We certainly understand that. But.

On the longer term, we're still trying to recover that overall international travel. And I think from a hotel's perspective, what our concern is, is that as we're just trying to get back to pre-pandemic level, what might this recovery force us to do?

Well, on the line now, we have Kenny Cassidy, director of business development at Acme House Company, which manages vacation rental properties in Palm Springs, and is also a board member of Visit Greater Palm Springs. Kenny, thanks so much for joining us. My pleasure, Mina. I understand that Palm Springs is really worried about its tourism, especially from Canadians. Talk a little bit about what you're noticing with regard to managing vacation rental properties.

Sure, sure. We are experiencing guests who may have been coming to us, Canadian guests, who may have been coming to Palm Springs for years, decades even. We're experiencing those folks not booking their return travel for next season. For us, season is January through March or April. And

they are saying i'm gonna hold off uh in making a commitment for next year or maybe if they had a reservation booked uh already they decided to cancel that reservation out of caution uh to make sure they weren't committed to spending that money and traveling to palm springs until they have a feel for how things are going what's the environment going to be like in our country

It sounds like then that Palm Springs is bracing for a big hit in the fall. Is that right? Because that's when they would have returned?

Yeah, really, we often refer to those folks who come and visit us in the winter as snowbirds, whether they're coming from a snow belt climate or not. But those folks start to come back in the November holidays forward time frame. But really, our high season, if you will, is January 1 through the end of March.

And we typically will see homes and condos booked for one, two, three months at a time in that January through March timeframe by those guests who are the snowbirds coming for the winter. And I think we're definitely seeing a dip here.

in those advanced commitments. A lot of people will book a full 12 months in advance. I think we're really going to experience the hit when the second wave of bookings typically comes along in October or November, and we'll see if it comes along and how strong it comes along. So we're experiencing part of the dip now, and we're going to probably experience the rest of it later this year.

So I heard that Palm Springs is trying to reassure Canadians that they put up banners, you know, Palm Spring Hearts Canada banners on lampposts and so on. Were you involved in that? I wasn't directly involved. The city took action pretty quickly on their own on that. The city council and city staff and visit Palm Springs. We have a couple of different tourism organizations here. The one that's just Palm Springs specific, that's

They took action on that very quickly and put those banners up shortly after the 1st of April, if I recall correctly, which is a little unfortunate in that a lot of those snowbirds and Canadian guests had already left.

at the end of March, so they missed it by a few days. But they definitely saw it in the media. There was a lot of coverage, as you can imagine, about those banners going up and Palm Springs' love for our Canadian friends. I think it's important to mention that...

Palm Springs doesn't just see these people as guests who come and visit us once a year. These are our friends and neighbors. These are people who are invested in their time here. They often will rent the same property year after year. They refer to it as their home away from home. They do what we might consider silly things like buy a new toaster oven and

It's my gift. It's their gift to the condo, and they hope it's going to be here next year. Right? So they really invest in those repeat visits. So they saw the banners in the media, and I'm sure it still had a good impact on them. Besides just the rental properties, can you...

And you've alluded to this, but just paint a picture of what the ripple effect will be of them not being here on other industries within Palm Springs. Sure. When any travelers are here, whether they're snowbirds or domestic or, you know, drive market from Los Angeles or San Diego travelers, they're dining in the restaurants, attending shows and events, going to fundraisers and donating to nonprofit organizations, etc.

They're participating just like a local would because they're here for such a long period of time. I think without those folks being here, it's going to, as you said, it's going to ripple out into sales tax and support for local organizations. There are definitely jobs that are probably on the line. If a restaurant is not going to be as busy, they're not going to need as much staff.

Just using that as one example. So I think it's definitely going to ripple across the entire community. I understand you're also a licensed real estate agent. I know Canadians own a decent number of homes in the area. Are they at least keeping them?

Yeah, actually, my personal experience with that, I have to be a licensed real estate agent to manage vacation rental signing contracts, that sort of thing. So it's something I keep tabs on and I don't do a lot of transactions myself personally. But I

I've only done two transactions this year, and both of those have been Canadian sellers. That may not be a great litmus test, but it tells me that those folks are concerned about their future involvement and participation and financial investment here in this country. They

They each had some additional motivations, getting older, health concerns, that sort of thing. But both of them were somewhat relieved when they divested themselves of that property and don't have to be tied to it anymore, not knowing what's going to happen, what kind of an environment we're going to have for them here.

Kenny Cassidy, Director of Business Development at Acme House Company, which manages vacation rental properties in Palm Springs. Thanks so much for talking with us. My pleasure. Listeners are weighing in.

Lisa writes, my sister who lives in Germany won't come to California because of air traffic control issues. So there's a safety issue there they're worried about. Justine writes, my son is an American going to college in Canada. He's not coming home this summer because he is trans and it's not safe for him to cross the border. Instead, we are visiting him.

Becca writes, I have friends from Europe, South America, Central America, and Africa who will not come to the U.S. One friend said they will not travel to anti-democratic countries. This was a real gut punch. I also have friends who will not come here because of the immigration issues and what is happening at the borders. We're talking about the outlook for California tourism this summer, and it's not looking great. We're talking about it with L.A. Times' Haley Branson Potts.

and the California Hotel and Lodging Association spokesperson, Pete Hillen. And we're talking about it with you, our listeners. Also, we understand we have a new pope. Robert Prevost has been elected. He will go by Leo XIV. The 69-year-old is the first American pope. He grew up in Chicago and spent much of his career ministering in Peru. We'll have more coverage from the Vatican and what this historic election means for the future of the Catholic Church coming up on your public media station. Meantime, this is Forum. I'm Mina Kim.

Support for Forum comes from San Francisco Opera. Experience the soaring highs and heartbreaking lows of bohemian life this summer in John Caird's beloved production of La Boheme. Puccini's most adored opera transports us into the heady bohemian world of 19th century Paris as we follow a circle of starving artists falling in and out of love, living for the moment. La Boheme runs June 3rd to 21st.

Learn more at sfopera.com. Greetings, Boomtown. The Xfinity Wi-Fi is booming! Xfinity combines the power of internet and mobile. So we've all got lightning-fast speeds at home and on the go. That's where our producers got the idea to mash our radio shows together. Xfinity!

You're listening to Forum. I'm Mina Kim. California is bracing for a decline in international tourists this summer.

California tourism experts cite a projected 9% drop in international travelers because of fear and U.S. trade policies and nationalist rhetoric and so on, with the sharpest declines expected among Canadian and Mexican tourists who spend more in California than tourists from other countries.

countries. Haley Branson Potts is a staff writer for the Los Angeles Times. Pete Hillen is a spokesperson for a California hotel and lodging association. You, our listeners, are telling us if anyone has told you they won't be visiting the U.S. this year and why. Have you noticed declining tourism? Do you work in the hospitality, restaurant, or other tourism-related sectors? Are you even suggesting to friends not to visit?

or family as well. Email your comments and questions to forum at kqed.org. Find us on Blue Sky Facebook, Instagram, or threads at KQED Forum. Call us at 866-733-6786, 866-733-6786. Haley, I know that you reported a lot on the Coachella Valley. Can you also talk to us about, you

you know, what you're hearing about concerns in the region that maybe Kenny didn't address earlier, but also or anything that you would add to Kenny's comments. But also, if you have any sense from the people you spoke to what it would take to encourage them to come back, to make them come back?

Oh, sure. So the, you know, something to keep in mind with the Coachella Valley and the importance of this tourism. So Palm Springs, you know, people kind of, that's shorthand for the region itself. You know, Palm Springs is a city of 45,000, but the broader Coachella Valley, it's a very rural part of California. So there are small towns there that are also, you know, relying upon tourism.

this tourism and they are very, very scared. I mean, this is, you know, these are communities of farm workers and a lot of poverty out there. And so, especially in the summer months when things are quieter, you know, people have made their money for the year during this tourist season. So we will see the ripple effects of this throughout the year. And, you know, as Kenny was saying earlier,

into the fall and actually into next year. So, I mean, the number of Canadians who visit this valley each year, it's about 300,000 Canadians per year, which when you think about the size of Canada, you know, the whole country, their population of around 40 million, it's about the size of California's

population itself. So we're talking huge numbers to this rural region. And so, you know, this is why it's being taken so seriously. Palm Springs Mayor Ron DeHart, you know, just like Governor Newsom posted his own social video a couple of days ago, addressing Canadians, and he said, you know, please know that you're welcome and appreciated here. So this is

It is being taken very, very seriously. And I spoke to a number of Canadians as well who had canceled their plans. They were very sad to do so. They've got really high regard for Palm Springs, especially. Let me go to John in Sunnyvale. Hi, John, you're on. Hi, how are we doing today? Good. Go ahead, John. I just...

I just wanted to ask, I don't see anybody trying to do the argument deal. Trump has proposed Canada being our 51st state. We should propose being Canada's 12th province. But then, you know, we're

With the deal going on, they need to settle to be their fourth territory. Well, John, thanks for sharing that. I appreciate it. Well, Tim writes, I'm a longtime resident of Acapulco. I have noticed higher ticket prices to fly from Mexico to the U.S., and the peso doesn't go as far right now. There are also additional hurdles to get a tourist visa. I think these factors are the primary reason there are fewer Mexican tourists coming to the U.S.,

Leah writes, we just flew back from spring break in London and the flight back was empty. The five of us each had a row to ourselves. The flight attendant said the flight the day earlier had been canceled because it was so empty. So, Pete, I want to talk with you a little bit more about the specific sectors. Is the hotel industry bracing and which parts of that hotel industry since there are so many very big hotels and very small hotels?

Yeah. Overall, yes, you have to. You have to prepare for this. Unfortunately, we have near-term experience with the pandemic. And obviously, this is not going to be as difficult. And I think the thing that to pick up on, I think a comment from Kenny is,

When you look at hotels, they are sort of 30% of the tourism dollar. But without a place to stay, the other 70% doesn't get spent. And so a lot of what hotels are doing are trying to work with their tourism partners to ensure that the experience that a guest, domestic or international, has is as premium as it possibly can be. We understand the consequences of hotels.

of not doing so. We live in a terrific state. People want to come here, as has been explained. But when they come here, we have to make it gold standard for everybody. And so whether it's a legacy hotel, family owned by a small, as a small business, or one of the larger downtown hotels,

Our teams are working across the board to make those experiences as best as they can. And just remind us about the role of hotels in local economies. It is significant. Hotels have what's called a TOT tax, which stands for Transient Occupancy Tax.

That goes only to the municipality. It is not shared like other taxes. So when a city's budget has a deficit, which many of our cities do, unfortunately, right now, they are very dependent on that tax. So when we don't have as many visitors, it impacts the services and to some degree the tax status of our municipalities.

Yeah. And that 30-70 that you were talking about, that rule is interesting. So you're saying, you know, the hotel is sort of foundational in terms of travel for the rest of what gets spent when somebody is visiting. So how are restaurants feeling? Do you have a sense of that? And, you know...

Yeah, the 70% of that obviously has the same similar impact and are trying to do the same things that hotels are, which is attract not only attract guests, but also make that experience as best as they can. They also have the same pain points that we do where when you don't have those guests and you're not serving as many meals or you're not providing as many Uber rides, things slow down and there's consequences to that.

So I know this may seem a little bit counter, but when we look at this in perspective, our hotels are going to do all they can to make those experiences as good as possible. And we're confident that our friends from Canada, our friends from Mexico will return. Yeah.

This listener writes, my mother-in-law and three friends who live in Toronto were going to come to California to visit. They have all canceled because they didn't want to support the U.S. financially, also out of fear of what could happen. Haley, you mentioned earlier that the Canadian government updated its guidance for travel to the U.S. and telling its citizens to expect greater scrutiny and to be concerned. They warned about U.S. border agents, as you say, and

Two thoughts came to me when you were talking about it. One is that I imagine Canada is not the only country to have issued that kind of travel advisory for people visiting the U.S. But I think I'm also just struck by the fact that have we become that country globally, you know, Hayley?

Yes, we have. There is a lot of concern about crossing the border, whether by car or airline. There's been a lot of this concern in Germany as well. Reports of people who've not been allowed to enter despite having valid visas. So yes, there is genuine concern.

So, Pete, I also want to ask you, have you ever, because how long have you worked in the tourism industry? The hotel and lodging is a relatively more recent role for you. How long generally have you worked in tourism? I've been working with hotel brands and associations for about 15, 20 years. So have you ever seen tourism? There's a lot of reasons that, you know, tourism could decline in a particular year. But have you ever seen it be the rhetoric change?

in trade policies of a president that are considered a driving factor? Yeah, in the period that I've been working with him, this is unique. It doesn't mean, though, that hotels...

haven't had a proven track record of working through both international issues, even though perhaps not as pervasive as we're seeing or self-inflicted as we're seeing. But we're

The pandemic has given us, I think, a strong long-term approach to how we manage through because it's in these moments where our hotels, their employees know what's on the line. And so it's incredibly important that they have the role they have to the best of their ability because it's during these periods is when the reputations are made.

We're talking about the state's outlook for tourism in California this summer, and it's bracing in particular for a decline in international tourism. We're talking about it with Pete Hillen, spokesperson for California Hotel and Lodging Association, Haley Branson Potts, a staff writer for the Los Angeles Times. And you, our listeners, are weighing in about whether you've heard people say they will not visit the U.S. this year and why not.

If you've noticed a decline in tourism and if you've even suggested that non-U.S. friends visit, a listener writes, I have friends who are going to the U.S. from the U.K., but as a U.K. resident myself, I'm not super comfortable going right now. One of my best friend's work trips got canceled because their company was worried they would get arrested at the border. My friend who works for the government is also not wanting to go. Like, why would I go right now? It's expensive. There are no eggs. I don't want my phone to be searched.

and there are loads of other places to go. I'm sure I could go and nothing would happen, but without an active poll, it's not top of the list at the moment.

Another listener, Peter on Blue Sky, writes, I am a Swiss-U.S. dual citizen living in California. I do not recommend my foreign friends come to visit. A Swiss travel agent I follow on Blue Sky forecasts a 64% drop in bookings to the U.S. And Lisa writes, my daughter has opted to finish the final two years of her undergraduate education in Canada. The current administration is the reason why.

Let me remind listeners, you are listening to Forum. I'm Mina Kim. Steve on Discord writes, California is obviously a major international tourist destination. I'm wondering which deep red states have a similar destination travel economy. Florida seems like the main one.

Pete? Yeah, Florida, Texas, of course. And then you're also seeing prior to the current issues this year, a lot of the convention businesses was challenged by other convention markets, Vegas, Orlando, Chicago. And we're just on the

cusp of getting those back because a lot of the convention business tends to be on three to four year cycles. And if you miss one, then it's a six to eight year cycle. And post pandemic, we were just starting to get those back, particularly in San Francisco. And so this puts a bit of a cringe into that recovery as well.

Well, listener David writes, Trump doesn't pretend to be the president of all Americans. He's the president of his supporters. California as a state is not in that camp. If people don't come to California, it just damages California, which works perfectly for Trump.

Pete, it's not all doom and gloom, right? We were hearing earlier, and I think you touched on this, that San Francisco will probably not feel as big a hit, say, as places in Southern California. And in part, this is because its conventions are still scheduled to move forward, that that aspect of its business is still going strong. Yeah, several things contribute to why it's not...

equitable pain point, I guess, is a way of saying it. San Francisco is a much safer place to be today than perhaps it was several years ago. And our reputation, even though it may be sort of negative out there, doesn't match the reality on the street.

L.A. is not defined by the fires, even though that reputation is out there. And they are doing an extraordinary job bringing people back and telling them of all the great places to visit in L.A. So I think a lot of –

There's a lot of layers to why people don't come. Obviously, we're talking about the federal issue that has struck our friends in Canada and our friends in Mexico in particular. But all of California remains open, and we do have great places, a variety of great places for them to come visit.

This is Nur Reitz. How much of tourist dollars in California go to the federal government? I'm not sure exactly if there's a direct thing here, Haley, but you definitely did also note that there are nationwide effects, not just in California, of this tourism decline, right? Right.

Of course, yes. We're seeing this all over the place. And when I spoke with Canadians, you know, to the point about California being a bubble, folks I spoke to who

who live in California were trying to convince their Canadian friends to come. They would say that. They'd say, come and visit. We're in a bubble. And the response they would get was, we know that, but it's still America. So this is a nationwide thing. You know, people know there's pockets of liberalism, pockets of conservatism, as in any country, but they're putting their foot down. And this is a nationwide issue.

Yes, there was this national statistic that, according to the U.S. Travel Association, that a 10% drop in Canadian visitors could cost the country more than $2 billion and 14,000 jobs. And if you just, again, want to put it in context in terms of Canadian visitors to California, in 2024, the estimate is 1.8 million Canadians globally.

who spent $3.7 billion in California, and that's according to the governor's office.

So, Pete, I was mentioning earlier, it's not all doom and gloom. We do have some major events that California is going to host that's expected to spike international tourism. Remind us what those are. In 2026, we have the World Cup coming. And then in 2028, we have the Olympics. And so I think the reason we remain optimistic, even though it's a difficult period right now, is business.

because those are huge international events and are going to attract from across the globe visitors that will be staying for a long time. And so I think we're, from a hotel standpoint, we're looking at those bookings a year or two out. And

you know, believing that, uh, we'll, we'll get there. So then what is the, what's the selling point for coming now then if you were somebody who had to do the marketing? Um, well, I'll leave it to the marketers to, to, to do that, but I will say the selling point is it's California. Yeah. We live here. We enjoy all the benefits of it. And that's why so many people continue to come. And, uh, uh, we hope that, uh,

we'll get through this issue at the federal level and everybody can come back and enjoy our state. It's California. We're a resilient bunch and we do live in a beautiful state. Pete Hillen, spokesperson for California Hotel and Lodging Association. Thanks so much for talking to us. Thank you, Megan. And Haley Branson-Pott, staff writer for the Los Angeles Times. Really appreciate your reporting as well.

Thank you so much. I also want to thank Kenny Cassidy, Director of Business Development at Acme House Company, who joined us earlier, who works on vacation rental properties in Palm Springs, and also at the top of the show, Mackenzie McMillan, a travel advisor with a travel group based in Vancouver.

Also, I want to thank our listeners for sharing their questions and comments and also my thanks as well to Caroline Smith for producing this segment. And also, as you have all heard, there is big international news. Robert Prevost has been elected as the newest pope and decided that he will go by Leo XIV. The 69-year-old is the first American pope. He grew up in Chicago and spent much of his career ministering in Peru. In his first remarks as pope, he thanked his former diocese in Peru and said, he

He wanted peace to, quote, enter your hearts, reach your families, and all people, wherever they are. This is Forum. I'm Mina Kim. Funds for the production of Forum are provided by the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation, the Generosity Foundation, and the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.

Support for Forum comes from San Francisco Opera. Experience the soaring highs and heartbreaking lows of bohemian life this summer in John Caird's beloved production of La Boheme. Puccini's most adored opera transports us into the heady bohemian world of 19th century Paris as we follow a circle of starving artists falling in and out of love, living for the moment. La Boheme runs June 3rd to 21st. Learn more at sfopera.com.

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I'm Jorge Andres Olivares and I'm hosting a new show, Hyphenación. Unlike many other hyphenated Latinos in the U.S., our cultures and our communities inform our choices, like with money. We had that pressure to be the breadwinner. Religion. I just think Jesus was what we would now define as Christ.

and family. We're not physically close and we're not like that emotionally close either. So join me and some amigas as we have easy conversations about hard things. Catch Hyphenation from KQED Studios wherever you get your podcasts and on YouTube.