Canadians to Trump: We Are Not Having It
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From KQED in San Francisco, this is Forum. I'm Mina Kim. President Trump's unprovoked tariffs on Canadian goods, his threats to make the sovereign nation a 51st state, his belittling of Canada's leaders. It has Canadians, quote, out of this world angry about what the U.S. is doing to them. According to Vox's Canada-based correspondent, Zach Beecham, the number of Canadians crossing the border to visit the U.S. has also plummeted.

This hour, we look at the unraveling of relations with our once closest ally and how everyday Canadians and their government are responding. Do you have ties to Canada? How are you feeling about this low point in relations between the two countries? Join us.

Welcome to Forum. I'm Mina Kim. Hundreds of Canadians gathered in Toronto Saturday for an elbows-up rally to show their pride and unity in the face of President Trump's tariffs on Canadian goods and threats to its sovereignty. Canada was meant to be the 51st state because we subsidize Canada by $200 billion a year. We don't need their cars. We don't need their lumber. We have a lot of lumber. We

We don't need their energy. We don't need anything. Politicians were not invited to the weekend rally, but on Sunday, when Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called for snap elections to be held next month, Trump's actions were central to his remarks. We are facing the most significant crisis of our lifetimes because of President Trump's unjustified trade actions and his threats to our sovereignty.

Our response must be to build a strong economy and a more secure Canada. President Trump claims that Canada isn't a real country. He wants to break us so America

can own us. We take a closer look at how Canadians are reacting to the U.S. turning on its closest ally and what it could lead to. And listeners, how are you reacting? And what would you want to tell our neighbors to the north? Joining me this hour, Zach Beecham, senior correspondent for Vox, now based in London, Ontario. Hi, Zach. Hey, happy to be here. Glad to have you on. Vyosa Isai is also with us covering Canada for The New York Times and based in Toronto. Hi, Vyosa.

Hi, Mia. Thanks for having me. Glad to have you. So you were at the Elbows Up rally in Toronto Saturday, Vyosa. For those who don't know, tell our listeners what Elbows Up means. So I'm not a hockey person, but I've come to learn the lingo pretty quickly. Elbows Up is actually a phrase that was coined by Gordie Howe, who's a Canadian hockey legend, and he was known for his defensive play. And one of his signature moves was lifting up his elbows to keep his opponents at bay when he was rushing for the puck. So Elbows Up is kind of...

has become a rallying cry for Canadians in this moment. And if you don't play hockey like me, you can imagine, you know, moving through a packed crowd and elbowing your way to clear a path. So in the context of protecting Canada, Elbows Up is about defense against an aggressor, which Canadians view Mr. Trump as being. So then what was the scene and mood like at the rally?

It was a sea of red and white, as you can imagine. Everyone had Canadian flags and pins and the event was marketed as being family friendly. So I found it really amusing the level of restraint that the protesters showed with some of their signs. My favorite one was True North, Strong and Peaved, which is a spin on our line in our national anthem, True North, Strong and Free. But it was very much about

about making a grassroots show of support, solidarity, unity, and resilience in the face of the economic and sovereignty threats. We heard from our Toronto Mayor, Olivia Chow, and there was many chants of elbows up and people lifting up their elbows in that show of real physicality of what they're feeling in this moment. Yeah.

Zach, you've noted that behind that polite restraint that they were showing at that rally that Vyosa was just telling us about, that there's a real anger at the U.S. that's unmatched in recent years, an anger that maybe you think Americans don't quite appreciate. What are we not getting? Yeah, I'm not even sure anger begins to cover it, right? I mean, look, think about it this way. Imagine that you are a medium-sized country, right?

And on your border is a military superpower with thousands of nuclear weapons. And they all of a sudden, they're your most important trading partner and your continued existence depends to a certain degree on this sense, this expectation that this border is peaceful, right? Is that it's a place, it's a set and stable border and that commerce can flow freely between the two countries, right?

And then all of a sudden, a president comes in with no warning, right? Like, with no warning at all, begins making threats against your sovereignty. This isn't just—and diminishing your prime minister and your government by calling him Governor Trudeau, right? Who's no longer the prime minister, but has been for most of Trump's time in office. And—

Just imagine that sense of betrayal and pain and fear, right? It's...

It's difficult to understand if you're an American thinking as an American because there's no meaningful threat of invasion or threat to the American homeland. And Canadians didn't have one either, right? There was no – because their relationship with the US was so taken for granted as an allied one defined by primarily relatively open borders and peaceful commerce –

There was a lot of interdependence that had built up, and now it's a threat to the Canadian economy and a threat to its very continued existence. That's the way that a lot of Canadians perceive it. Whether or not you think an American invasion is likely, I think it's not. The fact is they now have to consider it, right? Take it seriously as a possibility, let alone the reality of significant economic pain that's already happening. So it's betrayal. It's fear. It's rage. It's a sense of patriotism because –

You know, we they Canadians care about being Canadians, right? A big part of their national identity is not being American, right, is having this set of distinctness and differentness. And that's that that's what's under assault, right? All of these things. It's it's it's I've never seen anything like it. Another way this is showing up is in boycotts of American goods. Right. Zach, tell us what you're seeing.

Yeah. So in my neighborhood, there's a sort of main drag, right? That has a number of different local small businesses that are right along the line, right? And if you walk down them, there's one place that has three of them in a row and every single one

has signs outside that lists all of the Canadian-made products or advertise that they have Canadian-made products and say you should go there. If you go to the liquor store, which is, I don't know, a 15-minute walk away from this drag that I'm talking about. In Ontario, the main liquor store, it's a state-owned liquor store called the LCBO.

American products are by order of the government off the shelf. You can't buy, for example, Tennessee whiskey, any kind of Tennessee whiskey anymore in an LCBO because the government is angry enough that they are – and this is a conservative-led government, right? This is the conservative – the local provincial-level conservative party –

is ordering this and they're in charge because there's so much popular anger that the government needs to, even if they wouldn't otherwise, you know, be so confrontational. But I think there actually is some genuine sentiment even from conservatives, right, of anger on this front. And so they're pulling liquor out of there. Even the big multinational corporations here are catering to national sentiment, right? If you go

There's another street that's not that far away, and there's a McDonald's there. You see the McDonald's, and the sign lists that they source their ingredients to Canada. McDonald's, literally the most American corporation you could think of. But they feel like in order to deal with this sense of economic nationalism, this deep sense of anger and rage at the United States that's changing Canadian-made products, or sorry, leading to an increased demand of Canadian-led products, that even McDonald's has to

you know, make it clear that they are at least partially on board with Canada's current prevalent nationalist sentiment. So that, I hope that gives you a small sense of what it's like on the ground. Yeah, for sure. And Viosa, there's even been vandalism at Tesla dealerships as there have been here in the U.S. Canada, Canadians, they're angry at Elon Musk too. Why? Yeah.

They view him as being a really close ally of Mr. Trump, as he is in the United States, and exerting that influence in some of his messaging towards Canada. He had a tweet that he later deleted saying that Canada isn't a real country. And so I think Canadians are really understandably upset and

which is a city west of Toronto and the center of Canada's steel manufacturing industry. Last week, 80 Teslas were vandalized and police are looking into that, but it's largely suspected as being a sign of protest against Mr. Musk. And, yeah,

Local governments have also kind of retaliated. Ontario canceled a $100 million contract with Starlink, which is a Musk-owned company, internet company. And two provinces, Manitoba and Nova Scotia, have canceled rebate programs for Tesla buyers. So there's very real pushback against Elon Musk in Canada as well. Yeah.

Listeners, I want to invite you to join the conversation. How are you feeling about this breakdown in relations with Canada? What would you like to tell a Canadian? Are you Canadian or do you have family, business or other ties to the country? What questions or concerns does Trump's posture toward Canada entail?

raise for you. You can email forum at kqed.org. Find us on our social channels, Blue Sky, Facebook, Instagram, Threads, a KQED forum. You can call us at 866-733-6786, 866-733-6786. Patricia writes, Canada, we love you. SOS. Another listener on Blue Sky writes, I

I'm born and raised in the United States and feel embarrassed and more than a little frightened by our current federal government. I support Canadians 100% in their dismay and resistance. Americans have to feel the pain of what our irresponsible government is doing. Go to the polls and change it. Vyosa, you have noted data showing a steep drop in Canadian border crossings, the land border, to visit the U.S., another form of popular resistance that we're seeing here?

That's certainly the feeling. In February, so two months ago, last month now feels like longer, there were 500 fewer border crossings into the U.S. according to the U.S. CBP compared to the same time last year. And that's an all-time low since April 2022, which was

in the COVID era and when we still had travel restrictions in place in Canada, that's certainly notable. Some people might attribute that to a weak Canadian dollar as far as tourists getting a better bang for their buck by staying within the country. But of course, we've seen from various travel organizations and groups that represent Canadian travelers that many have expressed their desire to just stay in Canada or spend their money elsewhere in protest against Mr. Trump. So do you think

Canadian antipathy toward Mr. Trump.

extends beyond the government, beyond his administration, to Americans. I had mixed views on that just based on what I was seeing on social media. But speaking to people in the crowd yesterday or on Saturday at the rally, it seems like most of the people I spoke to felt like Americans weren't to blame and that they were sold a lie and perhaps didn't realize until it was too late what their new president said.

how he would express his views towards Canada. So I don't think regular everyday Canadians are blaming Americans necessarily at this point. We're talking about this low point in relations between the U.S. and Canada and how Canada Canadians are responding to Trump's antagonism. We're talking about it with Biosa Isai, reporter for The New York Times, covering the news across Canada and based in Toronto. And Zach Beecham, senior correspondent at Vox, based in London, Ontario.

He's the author of The Reactionary Spirit, and his recent piece for Vox is called Canada is So Furious at the U.S. Right Now. We'll have more about this from them and from you after the break. Stay with us, listeners. This is Forum. I'm Nina Kim. ♪

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You're listening to Forum. I'm Mina Kim.

We're talking about the breakdown relations between the U.S. and Canada from Trump's policies and rhetoric this hour. We're talking with Biosa Isai, a reporter for The New York Times covering Canada and based in Toronto, formerly a reporter for The Globe and Mail and the Toronto Star. Zach Beecham, you probably know him when we had him on for The Reactionary Spirit, how America's most insidious political tradition swept the

the world. He's senior correspondent at Vox and based in London, Ontario. Listeners, how are you feeling about this low point in relations with Canada? What would you like to tell people in Canada? Are you Canadian? Do you have family or other ties to the country, business ties? What questions or concerns does Trump's posture toward Canada raise for you? The phone number is 866-733-6786. The email address, forum at kqed.org.

You can find us on Blue Sky Facebook, Instagram, and threads at KQED Forum. And Noel on Discord writes, I just bought an I Love Canada bumper sticker on Etsy. I had had just about enough of the nonsense going on. It says, sensible Americans stand by you. The fight for democracy is...

unites us. Zach, let's talk more about what we mean when we say Canada's our closest ally, very intertwined with the U.S., especially economically. You've used an agricultural example, I think, Potash, to talk in particular about the close economic ties that countries have established. Tell us more. Yeah. So

This is – in the article, I sort of use it to explain why tariffs are really bad for both countries. But I think it should sort of illustrate what's going on. So potash is a fertilizer, right? And both American and Canadian farmers use it to grow crops, right? And so the –

On the American side, we import a lot of our potash for whatever reason from Canada. It's just that's what was economically most efficient to do so. And that's likely a byproduct of decades and decades and decades of economic liberalization on the border. Even before NAFTA, there was free trade in some goods there.

across the U.S.-Canadian border. And so what's happened is that various different suppliers and manufacturers have moved their base, their industrial base, all around various parts of North America. But for farming, let's stick with that example for right now. That's

So the potash, it comes into the US, right? Where we grow crops, right? And then those crops get either consumed in the US or exported. Many of them are exported back to Canada, right? I go to the grocery store and now I actually suspect that some American made goods are being marked down because they're less popular than Canadian ones. But I definitely, when I was there the other day, saw a bunch of things that are labeled product of the USA in little small letters. But the point is that when you put a tariff on potash,

What you're doing, in effect, is increasing the price at two points.

Because if the US tariff is on the Canadian import, that means the potash is more expensive for American farmers who have to raise their prices on the farm good. And then when it gets exported back to Canada, the Canadian tariff hits it again. And so the price is essentially the same good as being double tariffed because the product needed to make it was tariffed and then the product on being exported.

It was itself also the recipient of a tariff. So things get much more expensive for Canadian consumers buying American-made goods. And the same is true in reverse, right? If there's an American-made product that is used to manufacture something in Canada and then imported, that thing is being imported back into the U.S. A lot of cars in North America are made in Canada, for example, at least some. So it's like...

Pushing the tariff buttons, basically pushing a higher prices button. It's a very common metaphor used by economic policymakers. If there's any way that you could just say, I want higher prices, just put a tariff on something. And especially something, if you're American, especially starting a tariff trade war with Canada.

Because there's so many different components of both of our economies are bound up in each other. And another, I think, telling example is that at one point, Ontario threatened to put a export tax on electricity coming into the U.S.,

Electricity, you don't think of that as being something that's foreign-made because it's electricity, right? We have power plants. But no, in the northern United States, specifically on the border with Ontario, we do import a bunch of electricity from Canada. So had that happened, power prices, electrical prices would have gone up pretty substantially for a lot of American consumers in those areas. And that's to say nothing of a potential cutoff of electricity, which would be catastrophic for some

for some of those consumers and people in places like, like Michigan and New York. So this is, I mean, the, the level of interdependence is very, very hard to overstate. And though it can feel not like that, if you're further away from the Canadian border in the United States, when you live on the border and I do, right, I live about two hours from the American border. Um,

You see it, right? You see it every day and you understand the degree to which this is an economic war between these two countries is a no-win situation. Yeah. And the reasons that Trump has given for his tariff policy, they're very contradictory reasons, right? He talks about immigration, then he talks about bringing in more revenue, then he talks about subsidizing Canada and how that's not fair and trying to eliminate the trade deficit. Right.

What do you think, Zach, is behind it really? Or do you think Trump doesn't even know himself? Yeah, I know. So I think he might not. I really think he might not.

But let me give you – I want to strengthen your point about contradiction because it's really important and then give you a theory as to what might be happening. So the contradiction, right? It's like Trump – let's say he says sometimes, as he does, that he wants to use tariffs as leverage for Canada to stop allowing fentanyl in boarding. That's not really a big problem on this border, right? Most of the fentanyl that's made in Canada is being used for the domestic market. But setting that aside –

That means the tariffs should be on temporarily until Canada concedes something on border security, and then you take the tariffs off for compliance. But then sometimes Trump talks about the tariffs on Canada being designed to revive American manufacturing. Well, if that's the point, then you want to leave the tariffs on for the entire time, right? Because you want to make Canadian things more expensive, so American-made goods will be relatively cheaper and more people will buy American. Those are mutually –

contradictory objectives. You can't pursue trying to force a Canadian policy change at the same time as you pursue trying to durably change the nature of the American manufacturing market. They cannot both happen at the same time. So when they say both of those things at once, it means that they're not telling the truth about what's going on, right? There is some other rationale. They're lying about something.

And maybe one of those things is true. Maybe the other one isn't. But I don't think it's either of those things. I think Trump has talked himself down a road that he can't figure out how to get out of, and he is rationalizing it.

And he also, at the same time, has developed this idea that Canada really should be the 51st state, right? In the same way that Vladimir Putin really believes that Ukraine is part of Russia, and while Putin believes this because of weird arcane readings of 11th century history, Trump believes it because he thinks it would be really cool if the US were a lot bigger and looked huge on a map, right?

And it may sound like I'm joking or giving some kind of partisan caricature of Trump, but he actually said this, right? That's a paraphrase, a direct paraphrase of something he said in an interview. And I believe he was in the Oval Office when he was saying this. It's like, look how amazing that country would look on a map.

And when I heard that, I was just like all these jokes I've been making about Trump make Matt big, America great, right? Like that kind of caveman speak. That's actually the thinking that's going on. That's underpinning this 51st state thing. And he's trying to bully Canada because he just thinks it would be great if I think honestly, I think if his legacy were the first major act of American expansion since the acquisition of Hawaii and Alaska. Yeah.

So it's been a long time since the U.S. has gotten a lot bigger like that. But I really just he's decided this would be great. Right. And no one can persuade him otherwise, despite the fact that the vast majority of Americans think that bullying Canada is a crazy policy. From what I could see in the polls, Trump really, really wants this 51st state thing to happen. And when you've got a mad king who's just going to do mad king stuff, that's the way things are going to be.

Let me go to Hanyet in San Jose. Hi, Hanyet, you're on.

Hi there, Mina. Good morning. I'm a Canadian who very reluctantly moved to California in 1999 because of family and all that. And it took me... I came originally on a TN-1 visa, and I kept extending that for about 10 years, even though my husband was a citizen. Finally became...

resident, you know, green card. And anyhow, long story short, in 2022, I finally decided after the first time Trump was president, I said, okay, well, if I want to become a citizen, I may as well do it during the Biden time. I did it in 2022. Finally, after 23 years of being here now, when I'm hearing all these, I'm,

I am enraged about him talking about my country, you know, the wonderful country that Canada is, the way he talks about it. And I am so close to go...

purchase a property or something there so that I can actually retire back in Canada because I just cannot live morally consciously. I cannot live in a place like this because I know how Canadians are and how they're being treated now. It's so unfair the way that he's talking about it. It just...

It just blows my mind.

So we were talking about tariffs with Zach and sort of the questionable rationale behind them. In the meantime, you know, we know that Canada has responded aggressively to Trump's tariffs and they're preparing for additional ones in just in case. That's right. So, yeah.

As you might remember, a week or two ago, there was a meeting in Washington where a Canadian delegation that included Ontario Premier Doug Ford, sorry, it would have been the week before last week, went down to Washington and tried to kind of see if they could come to some kind of agreement or deal to stave off the second round of tariffs, which are coming on April 2nd. And they were essentially told by the Americans that, you know,

Bottom line is pain now, deals later. So there will be tariffs that are expected. I guess anything can happen. But on April 2nd, we're expecting a second round of tariffs on top of the 25% tariffs that are currently in place on steel and aluminum and some other products.

Yeah, well, there have been some early reporting today that stocks are rallying because it looks like Trump may be retreating from his tariffs threats and making April 2nd the day that they all go into effect. There's now some questions around that, which kind of underscores the point as well that Zach was making a moment ago. I do want to play a cut of Prime Minister Carney. This was when he replaced Justin Trudeau. So a little bit before this past weekend.

Talking about when the U.S. gets into a fight with Canada, Canada would come out on top. Let's hear it. We didn't ask for this fight, but Canadians are always ready when someone else drops the gloves. So the Americans, they should make no mistake in trade as in hockey, Canada will win. But is he right? I mean, when it comes to...

Who will likely be hurt more in an economic showdown, a trade war with the U.S.? Will it be Canada? So, look, when I said earlier medium-sized country versus superpower, those are the dynamics that are likely to define a trade war, right? Canada is much smaller than the U.S. The economy is much smaller. The population is much smaller. I mean, geographically, it's larger, I guess. And that means it's just more vulnerable.

the U S will have an easier time dealing with economic disruption caused by, you know, reduced trade with Canada. And that means prices will go up more in Canada in relative terms. And the effect on jobs, the likelihood of a recession would probably be raised by a higher proportion in Canada than in the U S. So no, I don't think that, I think there's a lot of nationalist posturing, which is fine. But,

But, you know, the Americans will be better off than the Canadians will. But I want to emphasize that better off doesn't mean good or better than relative to a world in which there is no trade war. Right. Americans will suffer less, but they'll still be suffering.

There's a world in which all of this could have been avoided, which is not starting a pointless fight over nothing or some kind of fantasy about annexing Canada to be the 51st state. But the reality is American consumers, if Trump really does follow through on more tariff threats, will also be paying higher prices. The odds of a recession will go up. The stock market will go down. It's not like a question of there being one side winning in that someone will be better off afterwards than they were beforehand. Right.

It's a sense of whether both countries are going to be better off or both are going to be worse off. And on the current policy course, both countries will lose. Canada will hurt more. There's no doubt about that. But hurting less is still hurting.

If given the choice between hitting myself with a hammer hard, softly, or not at all, I would pick not at all. And the US isn't – it's not going to be a soft hit either. It's going to be a medium size. You're not going to the hospital, but your finger is going to really hurt for a few hours. Right.

And maybe the metaphor is a little trivializing, but I'm trying to get across here that there's like talking in terms of winners and losers in relative terms is missing the fact that in absolute terms, everyone will be a loser.

And if I could jump in, we heard from our Prime Minister Mark Carney. So for listeners, a bit of context on who he is, they might be less familiar with him than they were with Justin Trudeau. Mark Carney is the former governor of the Bank of Canada. And he was also the first non-British person to be appointed as the governor of the Bank of England. So he's a seasoned

macroeconomist, and he's been pretty tame about sharing his views on Canada's approach to Mr. Trump while Justin Trudeau was in office, so as not to muddle the message. But now that he's been sworn in and he's obviously on the election trail right now, or campaign trail, rather, as we prepare for elections on April 28th, he has shared his view that Canada's dollar-for-dollar retaliatory approach to the U.S. tariffs has limits.

So it sounds like Canada is going to really focus on looking inward and shoring up east-west, you know, interprovincial economies rather than, you know, in a bid to Trump-proof Canada's economy. Well, let me go to caller Stephen in Sonoma. Hi, Stephen, you're on. Hi, good morning. Hi.

I you won't find very many people that loathe the current president of the United States. And I do. I've had business dealings with him with a company I worked for going back decades. I think he's the most vile, disgusting example of a leader.

However, I wish that people wouldn't take his bait. This guy is a carnival barker showman playing three card money. He will never, ever have the ability to annex Canada or purchase Greenland. It's all a shell game. It's all distract. So please, I love my Canadian brothers and sisters. Yeah.

Don't fall for this bait. And I blame the media in this context as well. Yeah. The absurdity of the United States annexing Canada is beyond the pale.

Stephen, thank you for sharing your views because Catherine's worried. Catherine writes, if we invade Canada, who's a member of NATO, are we not also obligated to come to their defense as a member of NATO? And another listener, David writes, I hope the Canadians stand really firm and retaliate with tariffs and regulations of their own. No one likes to live next to a bully. And that's what we have become.

After the break, let's dig in more to these 51st obsession, 51st state obsession rhetoric that we're hearing from President Trump, as well as how the Canadian government is reacting to it and everyday Canadians. We're talking about all of this with Zach Beecham, senior correspondent at Vox based in London, Ontario, and Biosa Isai, a reporter for The New York Times based in Toronto, covering the news today.

across Canada for The Times. We'll have more after the break. Stay with us. You are listening to Forum as we talk about the breakdown in relations between the U.S. and Canada, and we'll dig into how it's affecting Canadian politics and geopolitics. This is Forum. I'm Mina Kim.

Welcome back to Forum. I'm Mina Kim. We're talking about how the Canadian people and their government are responding to Trump's antagonism with Zach Beecham and Viosa Isai, Zach Beecham with Vox, Viosa Isai with The New York Times, and with you, our listeners. How are you feeling about this low point in relations? What would you like to tell the Canadian people? Are you a Canadian? Do you have...

Ties to the country. What questions or concerns does Trump's posture toward Canada raise for you? You can tell us on our social channels at KQED Forum, at our email address forum at kqed.org and at our phone number 866-733-6786. 866-733-6786.

And Liz writes, I would love for California to join Canada if they would take us and save us from Trump 2.0. Aaron writes, maybe Canada would be willing to take on a few more provinces to expand their western coast, Washington and Oregon. Let's get together and talk. Okay, so before any...

Borders change or any territories to shift. Fios, I am so curious how the government seems to be responding to Trump's talk of a 51st state and so on. I mean, are they taking it seriously? Do they worry that Trump might provoke a war or try to create a territorial war?

I think certainly at the very, very beginning when former Prime Minister Trudeau flew down to the Mar-a-Lago, I think that's when the Governor Trudeau jabs kind of emerged and it was largely viewed as a joke and poor taste, but that quickly disappeared.

You know, I think the government had to signal that it was taking those threats seriously just because Mr. Trump kept repeating the 51st day comment over and over and over again. And as our reporting showed in early February, I was actually at a meeting that Mr. Trudeau convened with business leaders. And as we were

you know, there was the public remarks section. And then after that was over, the media was kind of gently nudged out of the room. Um, as we were leaving, um, the, I guess the AV guys didn't realize that Mr. Trudeau's mic was still on. So it kind of captured, um,

how he was communicating privately and behind closed doors to business leaders. And that was the first time what he said basically is that the US is very aware of our resources. And he said what we have and that they very much want to be able to benefit from those.

And so he also said, Mr. Trump has it in mind that one of the easiest ways of doing that is absorbing our country. And it is a real thing. And I think that's the first time that we got a true taste of how the government was perceiving Mr. Trump's threats. And as my colleague, Matina Stevis-Gridneff, her reporting later showed that officials behind closed doors, Mr. Trump was talking about a 1908 border treaty agreement that he viewed as null, water agreements, you know, protections against Canada's

dairy industry, wanting more access to Canada's banking industry. So I think to the caller's point earlier about the media's role in kind of over, you know, giving this threat a lot more oxygen just because it seems so ridiculous. The government, at least the Trump administration, has levied some pretty, you know,

serious issues and put some serious things on the table. So I don't think that the government could ignore that as far as communicating to the Canadian people that it's taking everything really seriously. Yeah, so they're taking it seriously. So then, Zach, can you talk about how this has shifted the political fortunes of the Conservatives in Canada, who before all of this rhetoric from Trump and the tariffs and the threats to its sovereignty were enjoying a double digit lead over the

Yeah, so the Liberal Party has been in power nationally for about 10 years. And what tends to happen in democratic societies is after long 10 years in power, voters get pretty tired of the current government because no government can fix everything. And these problems start to fester and the opposition starts campaigning on its time for a change. We need to fix X thing the current government hadn't fixed.

In this case, that was high prices, right? Canada has a really – especially when it comes to real estate, Canada has a significant problem, a cost of living problem. And the Conservatives were campaigning primarily on the Liberals have made this worse. And in some ways, they had a point on certain issues. And certainly most Canadians thought so. And it looked like they were going to be coasting into taking over the premiership.

except then Donald Trump stepped in. Now, Trump wasn't the only thing that mattered. Trudeau had, by the end of his term, become very unpopular. And so his decision to step down as prime minister and allow the liberals to pick a new leader was one that I think helped the liberals, right? But that would not have been on its own been enough to change the course of the election. Because right now, the liberals are

ahead. It's astonishing. Over the course of, since really December, I would say, looking at the poll averages, the Liberals went from this consistent deficit that they've been pulling down for years at this point to being ahead slightly, very slightly ahead, according to 338 Canada, which is their equivalent of 538. And

It's hard to see this as anything other than a backlash to Trump. Now, why would this help the liberals? I think there are two big reasons. The first is that they're in power right now and people approve of the way that liberals have been very confrontational when it comes to Trump. No backing down, no accommodationism, a very, very nationalist pitch to Canadians where Canada, we're not going anywhere, that kind of thing. And it's played really well with voters. It's very much where the voters are at.

And second is that the leader of the conservative party is a guy named Pierre Polyevra. And Polyevra is, well, not certainly as right-wing as Trump. He hails from the right-wing populist party.

of Canadian politics, right? I would say some very, you know, the politics are different in a number of key respects. I don't really think Polyavar is a threat to Canadian democracy or would be if he were elected. But he certainly has taken on some trappings of Trumpy rhetoric, including a penchant for conspiracy theories. He was really out front supporting the extremist trucker movement that occupied downtown Ottawa. And,

and that was very unpopular with the Canadian mainstream. And so none of this really was hurting him that much in a world where conservatives were coasting on cost of living issues. But when

But when the nature of the election shifted and it became who do you trust to push back against American annexationism, well, then the guy who seems kind of like Trumpy and who's been publicly endorsed by Elon Musk seems like a much less safe bet when compared to a party that's currently in power and doing what most Canadians perceive to be as a pretty good job.

at dealing with Trump's various different threats. So it's just, it's completely upended the election and liberals have called an election that's in the Canadian system, you can do that. And it's gonna happen in about a month, which is the shortest possible time. I've looked it up, right? They did about it as quickly as they could conceivably do it under the legal limits.

And that is surely intentional because they don't know how long their Trump bump is going to last for. And they want to secure another few years in power. And right now, if the polls keep going in the way that they're going, they have a better than 50% chance of doing that, which would have been unthinkable five months ago.

Well, John writes, is there not a MAGA-like movement in Canada? Can anyone comment? And if so, is there any reporting on how these MAGA Canadians feel about Trump's view? I mean, does Pierre Pallietta, does he have to kind of balance what is a pro-Trump-ish movement in Canada? And if so, how is he doing that? Is there one that's strong, as John is asking?

um i've according to pollsters that i've spoken to pierre palief has kind of a delicate dance to to perform uh in the run-up to the election because while those ultra-right conservatives aren't don't represent a huge part of his base or they're you know fringe minority they're still part of his base and so he has to be careful so as not to alienate them but something really interesting happened uh

A week ago, Mr. Trump went on Fox News on Laura Ingraham's show, and he actually said that he would prefer if Mark Carney won. So he said he would prefer a liberal candidate because he finds him easier to deal with, which were his words. And Pierre Polyev is really leaning into that, you know, and saying, well, Trump wants Carney vote for me.

Yeah, which, of course, is not true. Anyway, let me play a cut of Pierre Polyev taking questions at his campaign launch Sunday now that the snap election has been called and doing sort of some of this balance, as you talked about. Do you respect Donald Trump? I respect the office of the president of the United States, and we have to show respect to other world leaders. The bottom line is the Americans buy 75 percent of our goods.

So whoever's the prime minister is going to have to at some point deal with President Trump. He was only elected a short time ago. He's going to be around for four more years. You can be respectful and firm, and I believe we have to be both.

We're talking about how Trump's administration's policies and rhetoric are influencing Canadian politics. And you, our listeners, are joining the conversation with your thoughts about how the U.S. has been treating Canada. Let's go to Michael in Boston. Hi, Michael, you're on.

Yes, though I listen to enough CBC to know that Canada really does have its share of problems. I think that Canada, to a lot of people, represents a more progressive, a kinder, and a more equitable and a less vulgar America. No, they're not that different to us, so why can't we be more like them? And as such, I think it represents a threat.

Well, Michael, thanks for sharing that. This listener on Blue Sky writes, for vulnerable American minorities, trans people in particular, Canada is the number one country to flee to. So sort of underscoring your point, Michael, Trump's aggression and belligerence not only threaten LGBT lives, but also endangers their ability to speak.

escape him. Another listener, Suzanne, writes to Canadians, we apologize for this abhorrent behavior and it won't succeed. As for travel, we were thinking of traveling to Victoria Island this summer to see the fabulous wildlife. Do you have a sense if U.S. tourists would be welcomed or maybe face a bit of a cold shoulder? I'll go back to you on that, Viosa, because you were saying that people generally will separate the government from the people, but what would you want to tell Suzanne?

I would certainly think that the feeling is still to welcome Americans and certainly in these tough economic times, welcome their business. I thought I'd like to bring up a point from a woman I spoke to at the rally at the elbows up rally on Saturday, who I thought raised a really good point about.

the Canadian identity, you know, in relation to the U.S. So her name is Delia Shelton, and she basically said a big part of her decision to attend the rally was to emphasize Canada's national identity. And part of her thinking was that when the U.S. sneezes, Canada gets a cold.

Basically, so this idea that the breakdown of some American institutions could have a polluting effect in Canada was really important for her to kind of combat against and reaffirm Canada's national identity and commitment to things like diversity, immigration, health care and women's rights. So, yeah, just it sounds like Canadians are worried about the polluting effect of that rhetoric from down south. So we'd certainly, I think, welcome more supporters from the U.S.,

Well, let me remind listeners, you are listening to Forum. I'm Mina Kim. I want to ask if you think this low point, this breakdown, that it will have long-term impacts. Like, has damage been done, Zach, that you think will make it very difficult for U.S.-Canada relations to be repaired?

I mean, one of the big findings in the international relations literature about alliances is that alliances depend on trust, right? Like ultimately, there are agreements that are worth

Their words on paper, right? Whether or not they are to be respected depends on your assessment of the other country's expectations, their needs, their commitment to the relationship, et cetera, right? And so trust takes a long time to build up and it's really easily lost. One way to think about it is a little bit like the United States and Canada were married and America cheated on its partner with Canada.

You know what? If I spin this analogy out too far, it's going to be a little weird. But let's just say, just think of it in that scenario, right? And the United States can't just wake up the next day after Trump leaves office and

and say, "Hey, Canada, oops, our bad. It's all better, right?" No, in order to repair the relationship, to get back to where it was, if it will ever go back to where it was, it's going to require some pretty sustained trust building. We know what that looks like in the context of a relationship, marital counseling, listening to your partner, buying them gifts, doing the things that you do to make a person understand that you're sincerely sorry.

What that looks like with countries, I actually, I'm honestly not sure. And the reason I'm not sure is there hasn't been an alliance system, not just like the relationship between the US and Canada, but between the US and Europe really ever in world history, right? Historically alliances were, they're connections of convenience, right? So there's this phrase in 18th century Europe called the stately quadrille about how the various different countries

swapping alliance partners like dance partners, depending on who is useful at one point in time. But the alliance, the sort of 20th century, late 20th century Western alliance model was about a durable shared commitment to certain values, democracy, human rights, international non-aggression, open trade.

open migration, right? These ideas which had defined what the post-war order was like as envisioned by the Truman administration and its other sort of Western post-World War II partners, right? That all depended on a sense that all of the countries involved in the alliance would be

aligned in perpetuity, right? That's why NATO decisions are made in consensus, collectively. If you lose one vote in NATO on something like adding a new country, then it fails, right? And that was a mechanism that we don't use in democratic legislatures because it doesn't make sense. You assume there's going to be opposition. But these institutions were built on the idea that there would be an aligned set of interests and values for the long run.

And if the United States can no longer be trusted as a partner to be not only just one member of this alliance system but a leader –

How do the smaller countries that have depended on the U.S. for a long time react to that? How do they restructure? They really have to think fundamentally about changing their entire policy orientation, the entire set of institutions and worldviews and approaches that have defined who they are and what their place in the world is. And so I just I the consequences of this, even if Trump stopped doing the 51st state thing tomorrow. Right.

Canada has a lot of incentives to make up with the US too, because trade, security, all depend on a close US relationship. But building back the trust that underpinned it and that allowed for...

You know, such easy commerce and deepening relations and assumptions that the two countries had each other's back for a long period of time and building policy around those assumptions. That's going to be very hard. It'll be very hard in Europe, too. And that's assuming we make it to a world where the U.S. wants to apologize for what's done during this period of time, which we very well may not. And so what are you seeing on the international stage? How is Canada sort of?

preparing geopolitically for the potential loss of the U.S. as an ally? I think one thing that Canada is doing is looking for friends, new best friends. So we saw Mark Carney, our prime minister, make his first international visit last week to Paris and to London. And so we're

I think there's a bit of a myth about the first foreign trip always being the United States, and I fact-checked that, and it's in fact a lot more complicated. So we can't say it's exactly breaking with the tradition, but it certainly does send a message that Canada is looking elsewhere for alliances and alliances.

Certainly, another big announcement that came out of that visit was in Iqaluit, which is the capital of the northern territory of Nunavut. Mr. Carney said he finalized a deal with Australia as a partner to develop an over-the-surface radar for the Arctic. So it is really about looking for alliances with countries elsewhere.

Yeah.

And Sue writes, my dear beloved Canada, I am beyond sad about this outrageous approach. I am shocked and have no words to express my feelings. Lots of responses from you, our listeners. Thank you. And thank you, Biosa Isai, for the New York Times covering news across Canada for being on our show today. Really appreciate it, Biosa.

Thanks for having me. And always, Zach, thanks for being on as well, telling us the latest from your base in London, Ontario for Vox. Zach Beecham, thank you. Thank you. It's always a pleasure to be on. And Susie Britton, thanks for producing this segment. You've been listening to Forum. I'm Mina Kim. Funds for the production of Forum are provided by the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation, the Generosity Foundation, and the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.