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“Forecasting time to automated superhuman coders [AI 2027 Timelines Forecast]” by elifland, Nikola Jurkovic
58:18
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2025/4/11
LessWrong (30+ Karma)
AI Chapters
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Chapters
What is a Superhuman Coder (SC)?
Method 1: Time Horizon Extension
Understanding METR's Time Horizon Report
Forecasting SC's Arrival with Benchmarks and Gaps
What Are the Task Difficulty Gaps Between RE-Bench Saturation and SC?
How Fast Can Task Difficulty Gaps Be Crossed?
Other Factors for Benchmarks and Gaps
Intermediate Speedups and Deployment Gaps
Engineering Complexity: Handling Complex Codebases
Feedback Loops: Working Without External Feedback
Parallel Projects: Handling Interacting Projects
Cost and Speed of AI Progress
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