“I Finally Worked Through Bayes’ Theorem (Personal Achievement)” by keltan
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Two years ago I found this community, which prompted me to start self teaching math. For reference, I didn't know what a fraction was in early 2022. I knew what they looked like, and what they were called. I didn't know what they meant.

The story of why I lacked basic math skills is complex enough for its own post. But my motivation to learn was simple. TSUYOKU NARITAI!

My goal was to understand Bayes' Theorem. And today, I have done that for the first time. Today, I achieved that milestone. This post chronicles the final reasoning steps that got me there.

I don't expect the average LWer will gain value from this post.

It is embarrassing to me to post this here. I admire the people in this space very much. Seeing you work problems has been critical in my learning, and learning to [...]

Outline:

(02:28) Question 1: Basic Probability

(03:10) keltan

(03:28) Question 2: Witch AND black cat?

(03:51) keltan

(04:31) Question 3: Conditional Proabability

(04:46) keltan

(05:59) Question 3: Bayes

(06:31) keltan

(11:36) Question 3.5: Double Checking

(12:03) keltan

The original text contained 1 image which was described by AI.

First published: December 5th, 2024

Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4hinsGHPGWB2vsDHM/i-finally-worked-through-bayes-theorem-personal-achievement)

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