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“Should you go with your best guess?: Against precise Bayesianism and related views” by Anthony DiGiovanni
01:04:20
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2025/1/27
LessWrong (30+ Karma)
AI Chapters
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Introduction to Degrees of Belief: What Makes Them Rational?
Can We Always Compare Likelihoods? A Motivating Example
Understanding Indeterminacy: Structure and Implications
Decision-Making with Indeterminacy: A First Pass
Practical Hallmarks of Indeterminacy: Suspending Judgment and Choosing Based on Other Reasons
Addressing Objections to Indeterminacy: Aggregating Representor with Higher-Order Credences
Is Precise Forecasting Always Better? Evaluating Maximality and Permissiveness
Conclusion and Acknowledgments: Summarizing Key Points
Appendix: Indeterminacy for Ideal Agents and Indeterminate Priors
The Principle of Indifference and Occam's Razor: Final Considerations
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