If there turns out not to be an AI crash, you get a 1/(1+7) * $25,000 = $3,125
If there is an AI crash, you transfer $25k to me.

If you believe that AI is going to keep getting more capable, pushing rapid user growth and work automation across sectors, this is near free money. But to be honest, I think there will likely be an AI crash in the next 5 years, and on average expect to profit well from this one-year bet.

If I win though, I want to give the $25k to organisers who can act fast to restrict the weakened AI corps in the wake of the crash. So bet me if you're highly confident that you'll win or just want to hedge the community against the possibility of a crash.

To make this bet, we need to set the threshold for a market [...]

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First published:
April 8th, 2025

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4o3AkH7j8XbppF7TG/who-wants-to-bet-me-usd25k-at-1-7-odds-that-there-won-t-be

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“Who wants to bet me $25k at 1:7 odds that there won’t be an AI market crash in the next year?” by Remmelt 01:52 Share

LessWrong (30+ Karma)

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“Who wants to bet me $25k at 1:7 odds that there won’t be an AI market crash in the next year?” by Remmelt