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cover of episode Dan Collins: Tariffs and the Future of US Manufacturing — #85

Dan Collins: Tariffs and the Future of US Manufacturing — #85

2025/5/8
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Dan Collins: 我在密歇根州长大，亲眼目睹了30年的去工业化进程，这导致家乡工厂倒闭，朋友们找不到好工作。我曾向当时的领导询问此事，他们却毫不在意，只关心自己的奖金。这反映出美国企业忽视国内制造业的现状。 在中国的20年经历中，我参与了中国制造业的蓬勃发展，并为美国公司（包括通用汽车）建立本地化生产。我见证了中国经济的快速发展，以及人力资本指数的显著提升。中国通过与外国公司合资，引进先进技术和管理经验，迅速提升了制造能力。 然而，美国对中国商品征收高额关税，导致供应链混乱，加剧了美国的去工业化进程。高额关税不仅影响零售商品，也严重影响美国高端制造业，因为许多关键零部件依赖中国进口。“金螺丝理论”说明，即使缺少一个微小的部件，也会导致整个生产线停摆。 我认为，特朗普政府的关税政策虽然出发点是好的，但执行方式过于粗暴，导致了经济混乱。更合理的做法是逐步提高关税，给企业留出调整的时间。 美国需要重新重视制造业，这需要政府制定长期战略，并与中国合作。我们可以邀请中国企业来美国投资建厂，促进美国的再工业化。中国企业在美国的利润远高于在中国，这说明美国市场具有更高的盈利潜力。 美国需要解决社会问题，例如失业和贫困，这与制造业的复兴息息相关。我们需要自动化、低成本能源和合理的税收政策，才能创造一个有利于制造业发展的环境。 Steve Hsu: (此处应补充Steve Hsu的观点，不少于200字，并使用第一人称视角，例如：我同意Dan Collins关于美国去工业化和关税政策的观点…… 我观察到…… 我认为…… 我的研究表明……等)

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Dan Collins is Founder of Tyrell Chemical. He studied at Tsinghua University and spent 20 years working for companies like General Motors in China, helping to localize automotive manufacturing. Dan and Steve discuss tariffs, deindustrialization in America, the Go-Go days of rapid economic growth in PRC, and the future of the US-China relationship.

Follow Dan on X: https://x.com/DanCollins2011)

  • (00:00) - Introduction

  • (01:25) - Dan's Early Life and Education in Michigan

  • (02:30) - Experiences in China, Tsinghua University

  • (05:42) - China's Educational and Economic Transformation

  • (14:39) - US-China Trade Relations and Joint Ventures

  • (41:48) - China's Auto Market

  • (42:38) - Weaponization of Customs and Nationalism

  • (43:20) - Impact of Tariffs on US Manufacturing

  • (44:28) - Chaos in Global Trade and Supply Chains

  • (49:34) - The Golden Screw Theory and Manufacturing Dependence

  • (51:50) - Strategies for Reindustrializing the US

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. –

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.