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cover of episode A cheat sheet for the big GOP tax bill

A cheat sheet for the big GOP tax bill

2025/6/12
logo of podcast Marketplace All-in-One

Marketplace All-in-One

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People
A
Adam Michel
C
Chris Cox
D
Daniel Ahmad
D
David Brancaccio
D
Diane Swonk
K
Kimberly Adams
W
Will McBride
W
William McKeon White
Topics
David Brancaccio: 作为主持人,我介绍了当前美国国会正在审议的税收和支出法案,并强调了其复杂性以及共和党试图在没有民主党支持的情况下通过该法案的努力。我解释了该法案的根本目的是延续2017年的减税政策,避免税收增加。同时,我也提出了关于2017年减税政策受益对象分配的争议,指出存在两种不同的观点,一种认为所有人都获得了减税,低收入者受益更多,另一种则认为大部分利益流向了富裕阶层。此外,我还提到了标准扣除和儿童税收抵免等具体变化,并质疑了减税带来的财政收入减少如何弥补的问题。 Adam Michel: 作为卡托研究所的税务政策研究主任,我指出,由于高收入美国人缴纳了大部分所得税,因此较大的减税将流向他们。许多低收入美国人本来就不需要缴纳联邦税,所以税率的降低或延长对他们来说可能感觉不明显。 Will McBride: 作为税务基金会的首席经济学家,我提到了一些可能被纳入法案的提案,包括免除小费和加班费,新增汽车贷款利息扣除,以及增加老年人的标准扣除。这些条款能否在参议院获得通过还有待观察。 Chris Cox: 作为预算和政策重点中心的联邦税务政策主任,我强调,为了抵消减税带来的财政压力,法案可能会削减SNAP和Medicaid等服务,这将对中低收入人群造成损害。即使进行了这些削减,众议院版本的法案仍将显著增加财政赤字。 Kimberly Adams: 作为Marketplace的高级华盛顿记者,我总结道,即使共和党计划削减开支,众议院版本的税收法案预计仍将在未来十年内增加2.4万亿美元的赤字,并且还需要额外支付5000亿美元的债务利息。

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Let's all read the thousand-plus pages of the evolving tax and spending bill in Congress, but until you do, we'll have some cheat sheets. I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. The Senate is working through the massive tax and spending bill. The House has passed its version, but the two plans have to be reconciled. Republicans are pushing to do this without the support of Democrats, a fraught process that requires nearly all Republicans to

Hey, David.

Fundamentally, when you step away from all these details, the reason for this legislation is many people want to keep the 2017 tax cuts from expiring, which would raise taxes on nearly everybody if it were to expire. Now, in the legislation on the table now, are there any other changes to the tax rates themselves?

The rates would stay mostly the same as the 2017 law, but this whole thing about extending the tax cuts actually gets into an interesting debate about those 2017 tax cuts. You'll hear that everybody got a tax cuts and that lower income people got bigger tax cuts than higher income people. That's what some people have as their narrative. But you'll also hear from others that most of the benefits of the tax cuts went to wealthier Americans. And

Both of those narratives are kind of true. Here's Adam Michel, who's director of tax policy studies at the Libertarian Cato Institute. Some of the larger tax cuts will go to the higher income Americans, and that's driven by the fact that higher income Americans pay the lion's share of income taxes. Lots of lower income Americans end up not owing federal taxes anyway. So a tax rate cut or an extension of one may not feel like much.

Aral, so a lot of people also focused on the standard deduction where you don't have to itemize, you just lop it off. And the child tax credit. Give us some more details on changes there. Right. The standard deduction, which, as you mentioned, most people do take rather than itemize, would become permanent at the level it is now, plus go up by $1,000 to $2,000 a year, depending on your filing status, until 2028.

The child tax credit increases from $2,000 to $2,500, but it's not a refundable tax credit, which means that if you're low income and you don't end up owing taxes, you just don't get that much out of it. According to a study from Columbia University, that leaves one in four kids out of the benefit. Now, there are also some Trump campaign trail promises that made it into the bill. Will

Will McBride is chief economist at the Tax Foundation. There's a proposal for exempting tips and overtime. There's a new deduction for auto loan interest and a larger standard deduction for seniors. And we'll see if those provisions survive in the Senate.

All right. Now, on the other side of the accounting ledger, reducing taxes means producing revenues that flow into the government. The Congressional Budget Office says there's close to $4 trillion in tax cuts in this bill. What is the plan to compensate for this?

At this point, it looks like most of the offsets come from changing or reducing services like SNAP and Medicaid, although the proposals coming out of the Senate are looking a little bit less severe in terms of cuts than those coming out of the House. Chris Cox is director of federal tax policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. The bill overall takes food assistance and health care coverage away from people with low and middle incomes.

And that is extremely damaging. Even with the cuts the GOP has in mind, the House version of this legislation as it stands would still add $2.4 trillion to the deficit over 10 years, with another half trillion dollars on top of that just to pay interest on the debt. Marketplace's senior Washington correspondent, Kimberly Adams. Thank you. You're welcome.

A cautious time for the U.S. economy is not stopping video gamers. In the first four days since launch, they shelled out $450 each for 3.5 million units of the new Switch 2 game consoles. That makes it Nintendo's fastest-selling console ever, and it's an encouraging sign for the rest of that big industry. Marketplace's Savannah Peters has more.

Even with that eye-watering price tag, William McKeon White, an analyst with Forrester, expects the Switch 2's momentum to hold through this year's holiday shopping season. I

I can understand it because this is the math I've been doing myself in my own head, which is, do I believe that this price of this console will ever go down? After past console releases, gamers could hold out for discounts a year or two after launch. But Nintendo has signaled it could raise the price of the Switch 2, depending on Trump trade policy.

That gamers are willing to invest in this new console in spite of, or maybe because of, economic uncertainty is a boon for other video game companies, says analyst Daniel Ahmad with Nico Partners. What the Switch 2 represents right now is a sort of resurgence in engagement. Ahmad says the gaming economy operates in cycles, where hyped-up console launches can energize customers and boost game sales.

Something the sector needs badly as it regroups after its pandemic boom fizzled out. I'm Savannah Peters for Marketplace.

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After senior officials from the U.S. and China agreed on a framework to get trade relations back on track earlier this week, President Trump said two things, that it was a done deal, but that both he and China's president would have to approve. The indication from Beijing today is positive. The quote from a spokesperson for China's foreign ministry is, now that a consensus has been reached, both sides should abide by it. Details of the negotiation have yet to be revealed.

shipping got really expensive in the last two weeks. Among the many effects of import taxes levied paused then last night a warning from President Trump that world capitals would soon start getting letters from the U.S. imposing tariff levels by country. This if these trade deals aren't reached ASAP. Despite tariffs, inflation remains tame both at the consumer level and today at the wholesale level. Diane Swonk is chief economist at the audit tax and advisory firm KPMG.

Some of that's because we saw a huge surge in inventories and many of those most at risk of tariffs did heavy discounting ahead of having to pay for tariffs. That said, in the PPI report, we did see that wholesalers, those in the middle, caught in the middle, are paying the most in terms of the squeeze in their profit margins due to tariffs.

Those are people basically storing a lot of these tariffed goods in inventory. And they're right now having to bear the brunt of the burden of tariffs. And did you see the cost of shipping across the ocean? There's a spike there. That's due to tariff distortions, wouldn't you say? Exactly. What we saw was in the days of June 2nd and June 3rd, we had the largest two-day increase in shipping costs across.

on record, went up over 40% in those two days. And that's very reminiscent of the pandemic. And there's a scramble on to get goods into the country before the most prohibitive tariffs on China are reinstated. That means ships aren't where they were supposed to be. And all those shipping costs, particularly between Shanghai and New York, Shanghai and

Los Angeles, those went up the most, over 50 percent in those two days alone. This really is a stunning surge, and those will add to the costs associated with tariffs. All right, Diane Swong, chief economist at KPMG. I'm David Brancaccio, Marketplace Morning Report.

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