Tariffs and economic growth, both globally and at the checkout line
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I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. The world will see lower economic growth due to tariffs and tariff uncertainty. This is the conclusion of economists working for the Club of Rich Nations, known as the OECD. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development now says economic growth in the U.S. this year will be a paltry 1.6 percent. The OECD blames substantial barriers to trade, diminishing confidence and heightened uncertainty.

It says global economic growth will fall below 3% this year. The slowdown is expected to be most concentrated in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and China. The OECD warns that inflation is also resurfacing, with tariffs pushing up prices.

adding that things could get worse if the trade war intensifies, with higher trade taxes pushing inflation up even more while tamping down growth. The OECD has some advice for global policymakers. Collaborate to keep tariffs from ratcheting up even more and encourage manufacturers to diversify their supply chains. I'm Nancy Marshall-Genzer for Marketplace.

Now to the economics of heavy metal and not so heavy metal, steel and aluminum taxes on imports set to go into effect tomorrow. They're meant to prop up U.S. jobs but can also prop up prices even at the supermarket. Here's Marketplace's Samantha Fields. What's the first thing you thought about when you heard Trump was doubling tariffs on steel and aluminum? The price of groceries? You

Yeah, no, me neither. Tariffs on inputs like steel and aluminum may not seem that connected to food, but they are critical for packaging. David Ortega at Michigan State University says think about all those canned goods you buy. Canned tuna, soda, beer, pet food even. All of them are packaged in steel or aluminum.

Anusha Haley at Wichita State University says most of it is imported. The United States just does not produce enough steel. And the U.S. imports nearly 70 percent of tinplate steel.

that manufacturers use for cans of fruits, vegetables, essential foods, and pet foods. If these tariffs remain in effect, she says we're likely to start seeing all sorts of prices go up at the grocery store, and not just on canned goods. For instance, if companies that currently use aluminum to package certain products, like soda, start using more plastic instead, that could cause plastic, and anything packaged in it, to get more expensive too, because supply and demand.

There are also indirect costs, the costs of transportation, the costs of fixing up trucks, etc. All of which also get more expensive as steel and aluminum do. And that can trickle down into the prices we pay for pretty much everything at the store.

John Clear at Alex Partners says retailers are in a tough spot. Because consumers are super conscious of all the price increases, so they know they're losing trust. But also they don't have a lot more room in their margins to continue to swallow costs. Especially after pandemic supply chain issues and the inflation that followed.

So say a company that sells canned vegetables does decide to pass along the increased cost of a steel can to customers. Clear says that might only be an extra two to five cents. Which doesn't seem a lot, but a can of sweet corn at Walmart is like 42 to 45 cents. So an extra five cents would make it cost about 10% more. And

And Clear says a lot of people buying canned fruits and vegetables are on SNAP benefits, which already don't go very far. So if you think that's replicated across a number of items in their basket every week, suddenly that actually becomes quite impactful and will ultimately mean that they probably buy one less unit. Which again, might not seem like a lot, he says. But if you're a big company like Walmart and thousands of customers start buying one less can of corn at thousands of stores, it adds up.

I'm Samantha Fields for Marketplace.

Now, the tariffs on steel and aluminum are separate from the April 2nd tariffs on goods from countries worldwide, which are under a legal challenge, but still in effect at least through June the 9th. Later this morning, we'll get a national tally for help-wanted job openings. This will be for April, a bit early to see full effects of the April 2nd global tariff announcement. Forecasters are expected there to be about 100,000 fewer openings, 1.4% lower. ♪

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The NBA Finals start on Thursday. The Oklahoma City Thunder take on the Indiana Pacers. While maybe the TV gods would have wanted teams from the biggest of markets, there are upsides for the league. Marketplace's Henry Epp has that. The fact that teams from two of the smaller media markets in the 30-team NBA made it to the finals is largely thanks to the league's salary cap. Andrew Zimbalist is a professor emeritus at Smith College.

The salary cap puts a limit on the amount teams can pay their players. It also puts a floor on the bottom that teams can pay. Which, he says, means that teams in big cities with wealthier fan bases can't just buy their way to a championship. There's the reassertion of very strong competitive balance, and I think that's uplifting for fans around the league, especially those who are not in the largest markets. Plus,

Plus, it doesn't matter all that much to the NBA which teams make it to the finals because the league has contracts locked in with TV networks and streaming services for the next 11 years. Alicia Jessup is a professor at Pepperdine University. So regardless of which teams were going to take off in this matchup, the amount of money that would be generated from media rights was already designated.

The downside, Jessup says, is the teams and league might not make as much ticket revenue compared to selling seats in, say, New York or L.A. And if ratings are low, companies might not want to shell out as much for future sponsorship deals. I'm Henry App for Marketplace.

This Old House Radio Hour is now a radio show and a podcast. What is the meaning of house and how to fix things big and small at your place? I'm on that program this week talking about rebuilding after wildfire. Yes, I'm one of the many here in California trying to figure out what to do.

You can listen to that episode by signing up wherever you get your podcasts or today handily mixed into the Marketplace Morning Report podcast feed in Los Angeles. I'm David Brancaccio, and we're from APM, American Public Media. Personal finance isn't just about spreadsheets and investing. It's emotional. Talking to your partner about money, negotiating a raise. Even the smallest decisions, like splitting a bill, can bring up feelings of shame or anxiety. ♪

I'm Rima Grace, host of This is Uncomfortable, a podcast from Marketplace about life and how money messes with it. In this season, we get into topics like workplace drama, tough financial trade-offs, and the quiet tension that builds when love and finances collide. Listen to This is Uncomfortable wherever you get your podcasts.