We're sunsetting PodQuest on 2025-07-28. Thank you for your support!
Export Podcast Subscriptions
cover of episode The IMF slashes global growth forecasts

The IMF slashes global growth forecasts

2025/4/23
logo of podcast Marketplace All-in-One

Marketplace All-in-One
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
D
Daniel Lee
G
Gideon Long
H
Huang Huang (Dr.)
M
Mariko Oi
S
Stephen Macdonald
Topics
Gideon Long: 国际货币基金组织（IMF）下调了全球经济增长预测，从之前的3.3%下调至2.8%。该组织认为，特朗普总统实施的关税是经济增长的主要负面冲击因素。这一下调对全球经济，特别是对中国经济产生了重大影响。 Mariko Oi: IMF对中国经济增长的预测也大幅下调，主要原因是关税。几乎全球所有国家都受到了关税的影响，而美国政府宣布的关税措施，目标主要指向中国。中国政府对此回应强硬，表示不同意，并会采取挑战和报复措施。与中国不同，亚洲其他国家则采取了更温和的方式，例如与美国谈判或降低自身关税以争取美国的优惠政策。日本经济也受到关税的严重打击，特别是汽车和钢铁铝材的关税。 Daniel Lee: 我今年66岁，工作多年，现在退休了，最重要的是享受生活。 Stephen Macdonald: 面对出口收入的潜在损失，中国正试图刺激国内消费，其中一个目标群体是老年人。中国推出了“银色列车”计划，旨在鼓励老年人进行国内旅游，以促进国内消费和地方经济发展。“银色列车”专为老年人设计，提供鸡尾酒和卡拉OK等娱乐活动。 Huang Huang (Dr.): “银色列车”计划主要服务于经济欠发达的农村和城镇地区。老年游客在火车上消费，并在到达目的地后参观景点和传统村庄，这将对当地经济发展产生巨大潜力。即使只有一小部分中国老年人乘坐“银色列车”，也能带来数百万张车票的销售额。 supporting_evidences Mariko Oi: 'I guess that is primarily due to tariffs, right?', 'It's practically every country almost on the planet that has seen this downgrade. And it's all because of those tariffs...', 'I think everyone has realized as soon as Mr. Trump made that announcement that the key target is China. And as a result of that, China is seeing this growth forecast by the IMF significantly lowered.', 'Whereas the rest of Asia, for example, they took a more nuanced approach where they wanted to negotiate with Washington. Some economies, smaller economies like Vietnam, for example, lowering their own import duties on American products entering their own country in order to maybe hoping to win some favor from Washington.', 'Yeah, I mean, I think with Japan's economy, we've been talking about its very slow growth for a long, long time and finally started to pick up. But it's actually been hit pretty hard by those tariffs, the 25% tariffs on all cars being imported into the United States.' Daniel Lee: 'We have been working so hard for many years. So I'm 66 years old. So important thing is that when we reach this year, this age, we must know what is the right thing to do and must really enjoy our life.' Stephen Macdonald: 'These silver trains are an attempt to turn an economic problem into an economic solution...', 'It has huge development potential. In Baisha, built by the Naxi ethnic minority, our retirees are off the train and checking out the modest street stalls at the bottom of old two-storey wooden houses.', 'Yet even with growth of this magnitude, these trips alone are not going to fix China's difficulties with low consumer spending. The problem is just too big.'

Deep Dive

Chapters
The IMF lowered its global growth forecast to 2.8%, citing President Trump's tariffs as a major negative factor. China's growth forecast was also significantly reduced, and other countries like Japan experienced similar downgrades due to these tariffs.
  • IMF slashed global growth forecast to 2.8%
  • Trump's tariffs cited as a major negative shock
  • China's growth forecast significantly lowered
  • Japan's economy hit hard by tariffs

Shownotes Transcript

From the BBC World Service: The International Monetary Fund has cut its prediction for global economic growth from 3.3% to 2.8%. In its assessment, it describes President Donald Trump's tariffs as “a major negative shock to growth." Then, China is trying to stimulate its domestic consumption. One idea? "Silver trains." Designed for older people, and offering cocktails and karaoke, these tourism initiatives encourage retirees to travel more inside China.