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cover of episode Why Wall Street isn't betting on a wider war in the Middle East

Why Wall Street isn't betting on a wider war in the Middle East

2025/6/24
logo of podcast Marketplace Morning Report

Marketplace Morning Report
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A
Anka Agachi
D
Denny Cohen-Hempsey
I
Ian Bremmer
K
Kimberly Adams
M
Mark Kantzian
M
Mitchell Hartman
Z
Zachary Pakin
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David Brancaccio: 我主要关注金融市场为何在中东冲突面前表现得相对平静。尽管存在战争风险，但原油价格下跌，股市指数期货却预示着华尔街的强劲开盘。这表明市场参与者认为冲突不会大幅升级，至少目前是这样。地缘政治风险并未对石油生产和分配造成重大阻碍，全球原油需求下降和供应充足也对价格起到了一定的抑制作用。此外，中国在中东地区的影响力以及对石油供应稳定的需求，也在一定程度上促使各方保持谨慎。 Ian Bremmer: 我认为伊朗是目前冲突中最不愿冒险的一方。他们深知无法与美国和以色列抗衡，因此，只要政权保持稳定，伊朗就会非常谨慎，避免局势进一步升级。中国虽然从伊朗进口石油，但伊朗的谨慎并非完全出于中国的因素，更重要的是伊朗不希望自取灭亡。只要伊朗不试图封锁霍尔木兹海峡，其石油出口就不会受到威胁。然而，如果伊朗直接攻击海湾地区的能源设施，将会直接与美国和海湾国家开战。因此，中国不希望战争扩大，但这并不是伊朗保持克制的唯一原因。

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The situation in the Israel-Iran war is fluid, with Israel accusing Iran of violating a ceasefire that President Donald Trump had announced late yesterday. Israel is vowing firm retaliation. Players in financial markets continue to take a wait-and-see position. We'll discuss the state of play. Also on the program: a preview of consumer confidence and a look at why defense is front and center at this week's NATO summit.