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Recession Threat Is Back—and Maybe Something Worse

2025/6/13

Merryn Talks Money

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Merrin Somerset Webb

Peter Bereson

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Peter Bereson: 我最初对美国经济持乐观态度，但现在我认为衰退风险很高。2022年时，大量职位空缺和超额储蓄缓冲了经济，但这些优势已经减弱。现在，职位空缺减少，疫情储蓄消失，消费者违约率上升，贸易战和债券市场也带来威胁。我认为今年美国经济衰退的风险高于正常水平。虽然经济数据好于预期，但消费者支出和劳动力市场都显示出放缓的迹象。此外，移民减少可能导致劳动力供应冲击，但其对需求的影响尚不明确。关税方面，目前的有效关税率已经很高，对家庭收入产生实质性影响，并可能导致通货膨胀。我认为比贸易战更大的风险是美国政府债务的动态，这正变得越来越失控。如果政府不削减开支或增加收入，而仅仅依靠经济增长来解决问题，那是不够的。我们需要看到特朗普政府进一步降低关税，如果大规模的财政刺激计划没有引起债券市场的负面反应，并且人工智能能够更广泛地提高企业利润，我才会对美国经济更加乐观。 Merrin Somerset Webb: 我邀请Peter Bereson来讨论全球经济前景，因为他在3月份明确表示，他认为美国经济衰退的几率仍然很高。Peter的标普500指数年终目标为4450点，较当前水平有大幅下跌。

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Peter Berezin, chief global investment strategist at BCA Research, discusses the high recession odds for the US, citing factors like the decline in excess job openings and pandemic savings, rising consumer delinquency rates, and threats from trade wars and the bond market. He acknowledges that recent data may seem positive but emphasizes the slowing consumer spending and labor market.

Recession risk for the US is estimated at 60%
Excess job openings and pandemic savings have receded
Consumer delinquency rates are rising
Slowdown in consumer spending and labor market is observed

Shownotes Transcript

Trump’s policies have slowed the economy, making a downturn more likely. But Peter Berezin, chief global investment strategist at BCA Research, says the nation’s yawning deficit is a bigger threat. He joins this week to talk recession odds and strategies for investing.

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Recession Threat Is Back—and Maybe Something Worse 31:22 Share

Merryn Talks Money

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Recession Threat Is Back—and Maybe Something Worse