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cover of episode Should Commodities Still Have a Place in Your Portfolio?

Should Commodities Still Have a Place in Your Portfolio?

2025/5/27
logo of podcast Merryn Talks Money

Merryn Talks Money
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People
B
Bertrand
J
Jeff
使用ChatGPT来改善关系和解决争论
J
John Stepek
J
Jonathan
医疗行业资深战略咨询专家，专注于行业趋势分析和策略咨询。
M
Merrin Somerset Webb
M
Mike
专注于摄影设备历史和技术的博客作者和播客主持人。
P
Paul
投资专家和教育者，专注于小盘价值基金的分析和教育。
Topics
Jonathan：我目前对是否应该超配商品股感到犹豫。一方面，我认为关税可能导致全球物价上涨，因为各国都在努力重塑供应链。另一方面，我也担心股市可能因为某些因素而崩盘，导致所有股票暴跌。我正在考虑是否应该直接购买黄金，然后等待一切尘埃落定。 Merrin Somerset Webb：我们不提供投资建议，但我们通常建议大家在投资组合中配置一些黄金作为避险工具。此外，大宗商品通常是很好的多元化投资工具和通胀保护工具。然而，过去10到15年，由于大宗商品的回报率非常糟糕，这种想法已经逐渐消失。现在我们正进入一个新时代，所以现在问是否应该在你的投资组合中配置大宗商品是完全正确的问题。 John Stepek：商品股和商品本身之间存在差异。在考虑自己的投资组合时，我建议稍微谨慎一些，不要过分担心宏观经济形势。关税可能不会导致通货膨胀或股市崩盘，即使发生，你也不一定知道如何正确地进行仓位布局。仅仅因为大宗商品价格上涨，并不一定意味着它们会继续上涨或保持在高位。大宗商品的规律是，高价格的解决方案是高价格，高价格会刺激供应增加，供应增加后价格自然会下降，这是一个非常周期性的行业。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter explores the question of whether commodities deserve a place in one's portfolio, considering factors like inflation, geopolitical instability, and the impact of environmental concerns on supply. The discussion also touches upon the differences between commodity stocks and commodities themselves and the cyclical nature of commodity prices.
  • Commodities have historically served as a diversifier and inflation hedge but have shown poor returns since 2007.
  • The impact of tariffs on inflation and the stock market is uncertain.
  • High commodity prices incentivize increased supply, but environmental regulations may slow down this response.
  • The energy transition is increasing demand for certain commodities.

Shownotes Transcript

In this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money, Merryn Somerset Webb is joined by Money Distilled author John Stepek to answer listeners’ burning personal finance questions.

Together, they tackle whether commodities still deserve a spot in your portfolio as the global economy teeters between inflation, geopolitical turmoil and policy shifts. With prices climbing and environmental concerns limiting new supply, is this the new normal or a bubble waiting to burst?

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