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FITCHRATINGSRAISEDCHINA 2023 GROWTHFORECASTTO 5.3%

惠誉上调2023年中国经济增速预期至5.3%

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FITCHRATINGSRAISEDCHINA 2023 GROWTHFORECASTTO 5.3%

惠誉上调2023年中国经济增速预期至5.3%

Fitch Ratings last Friday raised its 2023 economic growth forecast for China by 0.5 percentage points to 5.3%. Our reporter Zhang Shixuan spoke to Jeremy Zook, Director of Asia-Pacific Sovereign Ratings at Fitch Ratings to learnmore about his take on economic health in China.

国际知名评级公司惠誉上周五将2023年中国经济增长预测上调0.5个百分点至5.3%。本台记者张诗旋采访了惠誉评级亚太区主权评级董事杰瑞米·祖克（Jeremy Zook），了解他对中国经济状况的看法。

Zhang Shixuan, reporter

张诗旋本台记者

The Central Economic Work Conference has assessed this year’s achievements and set a tone for economic development for next year. Which statements from the conference may have a big impact on growth in 2024?

中央经济工作会议总结了今年的成就，为明年的经济发展奠定了基调。会议的哪些声明可能会对2024年的经济增长产生重大影响？

Jeremy Zook, Director of Asia-Pacific Sovereign Ratings, Fitch Ratings

杰瑞米·祖克 惠誉评级亚太区主权评级董事

The statement from the conference about using progress to promote stability, we think implies that some of these efforts that the government has made so far this year will be stepped up into next year. So, on the monetary policy side, we think that this kind of signals that there will be a bit more in the way of modest monetary policy easing. But I think the more interesting takeaway is on the fiscal【财政的】side, where the discussion of proactive【积极主动的】fiscal policy being intensified. But I think in terms of the overall message, it’s still not one of a large degree of stimulus. It’s more about keeping growth stable and by sort of managing some of the downside risks in the economy rather than giving a major boost to the growth outlook.

我们认为，会议关于“以进促稳”的声明意味着，政府今年迄今所做的一些努力将在明年得到加强。因此，在货币政策方面，我们认为这是一种信号，表明将有更多适度宽松的货币政策。但我认为更有趣的是财政方面，关于积极财政政策的讨论正在加强。但我认为，就总体信息而言，这仍然不是一个大规模的刺激政策。它更多地是为了保持经济增长的稳定，并通过管理经济中的一些下行风险，而不是对经济增长前景进行大幅提振。

Zhang Shixuan, reporter

张诗旋本台记者

What’s your take on the economic situation this year in China?

您如何看待今年中国的经济形势？

Jeremy Zook, Director of Asia-Pacific Sovereign Ratings, Fitch Ratings

杰瑞米·祖克 惠誉评级亚太区主权评级董事

In terms of our outlook for this year, we actually just revised【修改】up on Friday our growth forecast for 2023 from 4.8% to 5.3%. So, I think, what is influencing this upward revision and growth is that the third quarter came out a bit more stable and a bit stronger than what we had and anticipated.

关于今年的展望，实际上我们刚刚在周五将2023年的增长预测从4.8%上调至5.3%。因此，我认为，影响此次上调和增长的原因是，第三季度的情况比我们的预期更稳定、更强劲一些。

In comparison, though, China’s economy is still growing at a relatively strong pace compared to the rest of the world, but emerging markets this year have come under a bit of pressure as well, and advanced economies have also seen quite a lot of economic challenges given higher interest and rising interest rates.

相比之下，中国经济的增长速度与世界其他国家相比仍然相对强劲，但新兴市场今年也面临着一些压力，而发达经济体由于较高且不断上升的利率，也面临着不少经济挑战。

It’s very clear that the government wants to move the driver of growth away from the property sector to what it views as a more sustainable model, relying on new manufacturing sector, such as electric vehicles, batteries, renewable energy, as well as more reliance on consumption growth rather than in investment.

很明显，政府希望把经济增长的驱动力从房地产行业转移到它认为更可持续的模式上，依靠新的制造业，如电动汽车、电池、可再生能源，以及更多地依靠消费拉动经济增长而不是投资。

Zhang Shixuan, reporter

张诗旋本台记者

You mentioned that a country is now shifting its driving force for economic growth from property sector while also battling other headwinds【逆风】. Do you think now is the right time to make the transition? And what happens if we don’t do it?

您提到，中国目前正在将经济增长的驱动力从房地产行业转向其他行业，同时也在与其他不利因素作斗争。您认为现在是转型的合适时机吗？如果不转型会发生什么？

Jeremy Zook, Director of Asia-Pacific Sovereign Ratings, Fitch Ratings

杰瑞米·祖克 惠誉评级亚太区主权评级董事

This is certainly a policy priority. And we did see quite a lot of imbalances built up in the property sector. There were questions about how sort of sustainable and desirable such credit driven growth where for the Chinese economy. So certainly, reducing the risk coming from property itself, it does help to promote stability. But the question is managing this transition between the property sector driven growth and this new growth model. How does the government sort of manage that? And I think that’s the challenge that we’re facing, that China is facing right now.

这当然是政策重点。我们确实看到房地产行业出现了很多失衡现象。有人质疑这种信贷驱动的增长对中国经济的可持续性和可取性。因此，降低来自房地产本身的风险，确实有助于促进稳定。但问题是如何管理房地产行业驱动的增长与这种新增长模式之间的过渡。政府该如何管理？我认为这是我们面临的挑战，也是中国目前面临的挑战。

We do think that a lot of the trends that we saw in 2023 will continue. So we see a bit more downside in the property sector, especially in the first half of the year. On the external demand front, we do see a bit of recovery in exports for next year, although we think it will be only a very gradual recovery because growth in advanced economies and the global growth just is a bit weaker in our forecast going into 2024. And this is where the degree of policy support will come into play, we do think and underlying our forecasts is an assumption that the government will utilize again, monetary policy and more significantly fiscal policy to help support more stable growth next year.

我们确实认为，在 2023 年看到的许多趋势将继续下去。因此，我们认为房地产行业的下行空间会更大一些，尤其是在明年上半年。在外部需求方面，我们认为明年的出口会有所复苏，尽管我们认为这只是一个非常平缓的复苏，因为在我们的预测中，发达经济体和全球经济增长在2024年会略显疲软。这就是政策支持的作用所在，我们确实认为，我们预测的基础是政府将再次利用货币政策和更重要的财政政策来帮助支持明年更稳定的增长。

#热词加油站

fiscal/ˈfɪsk(ə)l/【财政的】

proactive/ˌprəʊˈæktɪv/【积极主动的】

revise/rɪˈvaɪz/【修改】

headwind/ˈhedwɪnd/【逆风】

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12/18 TOP NEWS|惠誉上调2023年中国经济增速预期至5.3% 04:50 Share

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12/18 TOP NEWS|惠誉上调2023年中国经济增速预期至5.3%