NEWS ON 12/18

CHINA’S ECONOMIC RECOVERY RELIES ON INNOVATION

科技创新正成为中国经济增长新引擎

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CHINA’S ECONOMIC RECOVERY RELIES ON INNOVATION

科技创新正成为中国经济增长新引擎

Zhang Shixuan Reporter

张诗旋 记者

The Central Economic Work Conference had a couple of highlights. One of them is a new term in Chinese we call it “xianlihoupo”, which literally means we fix it and then break it. How do you interpret these new terms?

中央经济工作会议有几个亮点。其中有个新词是“先立后破”，字面意思是先打破旧有的固定模式，才能创造出新的。您如何理解这些新词？

Hong Hao chief economist of GROW Investment Group

洪灏 思睿集团首席经济学家

It is a new term. Normally in Chinese we say we break it first and then fix it, right? So we break the existing model first and then we'll fix it and re-jig it. This time around, we're talking about steady the shift first and then develop. So I think stability is the key. I think the management is trying to keep a stable, steady domestic environment for the economic re-engineering processing.

这是一个新词。在中文里，我们通常说先破后立，对吧？先打破现有的模式，再重新调整它。这次，我们说的是先稳后变，再发展。所以稳定是关键。管理层正在努力为国内经济再造过程保持一个稳定、平稳的环境。

Zhang Shixuan Reporter

张诗旋 记者

How important is this year’s Central Economic Work Conference? Have you seen any progress made from the conference?

您认为今年的中央经济工作会议有多重要？会议取得了哪些进展？

Hong Hao chief economist of GROW Investment Group

洪灏 思睿集团首席经济学家

This year, we’ve seen new messages coming out of this meeting. For example, we're gonna use a new technology development to develop new types of productivity and to propel【推进】 economic growth going forward. And back then, I think last year, for example, we're emphasizing on boosting domestic demand to help the economy to recover. But I think going forward, that is still important because that is also being discussed in the conferences as well. But the role of technologically development is becoming increasingly more important. And I think it's the first time that we're putting science and technology development in the center of economic growth model going forward.

我们从今年这次会议中看到了新的信息。比如说，我们要利用新技术来发展新型生产力，推动经济向前发展。而去年，比如说，我们强调要促进内需，帮助经济复苏。在未来，这一点仍然很重要，因为会议上也讨论了这个问题。不过技术发展的作用正变得越来越重要。我认为这是我们第一次把科技发展放在未来经济增长模式的中心位置。

Zhang Shixuan Reporter

张诗旋 记者

What do you think is the dominant trend for the overall economic growth in China this year?

您认为今年中国整体经济增长的主要趋势是什么？

Hong Hao chief economist of GROW Investment Group

洪灏 思睿集团首席经济学家

The Chinese economy is going into a new phase, is trying to switch away from growth model that is driven by property investment growth and going into a high tech manufacturing driven growth. Property sector is important, but it shouldn't be one and only sector that matters to the Chinese economy. And also in a new environment where rivalry【竞争】between countries assign the heating up in terms of who gets to take the lead or even dominate the tech sector. That is probably the crucial success, the crucial battle that China has to (face).

中国经济正进入一个新阶段，试图从以房地产投资增长为驱动力的增长模式转向以高科技制造业为驱动力的增长模式。房地产业固然重要，但它不应是中国经济的唯一支柱产业。同时，在新的环境下，国家之间的竞争日趋白热化，谁能在科技领域占据领先甚至是主导地位，这可能是中国必须（面对）的成功关键和关键挑战。

Obviously this year, we've seen some initial attempts and end results already. The GDP coming from the property sector in terms of percentage has decreased substantially. But at the same time, investment in other areas and also some new and emerging industries are developing substantially faster than the traditional industries. I would say that this year people are starting see and feel the change of the development model. I'm just hoping that going forward, more and more people come around to this camp and see property as part of the necessary that the consumer discretionary【自由决定的】sector that is helping consumption while the investment that used to be set assign invested in the property center and it will be being used to develop the high tech sector in the manufacturing sector of the Chinese economy.

今年我们已经明显看到了一些初步尝试和结果。房地产行业的GDP占比大幅下降。但与此同时，其他领域的投资以及一些新兴产业的发展速度大大快于传统产业。今年人们开始看到并感受到发展模式的变化。希望在未来，越来越多的人能够加入，把房地产看成是帮助消费的可支配消费领域的必要组成部分，而过去分配给房地产中心的投资，将被用来发展中国经济制造业中的高科技领域。

Zhang Shixuan Reporter

张诗旋 记者

Well, this trend, which you refer to as a restructuring process continue in the year to come? Will be able to see some effects from the change?

您所说的这种重组趋势在来年是否会继续？这种变化是否会产生某些影响？

Hong Hao chief economist of GROW Investment Group

洪灏 思睿集团首席经济学家

As time goes by, you're seeing the embryo of the new development structure clearer and clearer, while the old development model is sort of receding into the background. Nothing that is probably more likely that we're gonna see an experience in the next couple of years. And China is developing a very substantial comparative advantage relative to the other nations, for example, the EV sectors. I think China now is the largest EV exporter of the world, etc. So things are gradually changing. It's an emerging process that we need to manage well. But obviously we're feeling more and more palpable【明显的】. The change is coming our way.

随着时间的推移，你会看到新发展结构的雏形越来越清晰，而旧的发展模式则逐渐隐退。在未来几年里，我们更有可能看到这样的情况。与其他国家相比，中国正在形成非常大的优势，例如在电动汽车领域。中国现在是世界上最大的电动汽车出口国，等等。因此，情况正在逐渐发生变化。这是一个新兴的过程，我们需要好好把握。我们的感觉越来越明显，变化正在向我们走来。

Now we're at about 300% to GDP-debt leverage ratio and that has to be change. I think this year we're probably gonna see for example, restructuring of local government debt, also more assistance for real estate developers who may have short term cash flow problems. There are many things to do but one has to keep in mind that solving the real estate challenge and also solving the local government bond issues, it's a long term issue. We probably took more than a decade to get to where we're now, and probably take at least a couple of years to clean it up.

现在，我们的债务杠杆率约为国内生产总值的300%，这必须改变。今年我们可能会看到地方政府债务的重组，以及对可能有短期现金流问题的房地产开发商的更多援助。要做的事情有很多，但我们必须牢记，解决房地产挑战和解决地方政府债券问题是一个长期问题。我们花了十多年的时间才走到今天这一步，可能至少还需要几年的时间来收拾残局。

#热词加油站

propel /prəˈpel/【推进】

rivalry /ˈraɪvlri/【竞争】

discretionary /dɪˈskreʃənəri/【自由决定的】

palpable /ˈpælpəbl/【明显的】

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12/19 TOP NEWS|科技创新正成为中国经济增长新引擎 05:16 Share

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12/19 TOP NEWS|科技创新正成为中国经济增长新引擎