H：

Thank you, Mr Ngai for your time. We all believe that China has maintaineda strong economic momentum for the past decades. And here comes the question. In this world, for the current world, every single country is looking for the secret to keep that momentum or to be like China. But your latest report says that the next China is China. So what is your source of confidence?

一个普遍的观点是中国在过去几十年间一直保持着强劲的经济增长势头。当下，每个国家都想找到像中国那样能保持经济发展动力的秘诀。麦肯锡在最近的报告中提到，下一个“中国”，在中国。麦肯锡对中国发展的信心，来自哪些方面？

N:

We are very positive about the future of China. I think comes from a few areas. I think the first one is, is the macro conditions in China is actually still very good. The story of urbanization still continues. We're right now around 65 percent urbanization. We think that there's another 15 percent to go. And that will lead to, in our view, from around 55 cities today to in the 90s in those cities that are more affluent, as people get more economic output, and more productive, earn more, consumption confidence and all that comes. The second one is, to be honest, innovation. If you look around the world today, undoubtedly technology innovation is going to be key for the future. Turning out new models,having new R&D. That pace, that dedication on innovation, I think is something that will continue and it's hard to beat in the world.

我们对于中国的未来十分看好。这主要来自于以下几个方面。第一，中国的宏观经济形势依然良好。城镇化进程在持续，现在达到65%左右，我们认为还有15%增长的空间。从我们估算现在中国有55座相对富裕的城市，城镇化会使得这个数量超过90座。各地区会有更高的经济产出和生产力，这也会提振居民消费信心。第二点则是创新。当今世界，毫无疑问，科技创新是未来发展的关键。推出新模式，开展更多研发，中国在创新上的投入程度和速度，我认为会继续保持，并且在世界范围处于领先。

H：

In China, of course, we face a lot of challenges. Can you help us prioritize what challenges do companies need to address the most and why?

中国的经济发展当然也面临许多挑战。哪些挑战你认为是企业最需要注意的，原因是什么？

N：

I think that there are some, I would say short term infrastructural challenges that what they overcome right, and I think everyone knows these. These will be the oversupply in some ways in the real estate sector. I think that needs to be solved. Back to macro, in the nextfive or ten years what is most important to overcome? And the first one is weare going to ensure private enterprises are going to be confident to invest and to put more capital to work. And it's very important that our system continue to churn out, nurture, improve to make sure that the talent, right is going to be here because I think that talent needs to be globally competitive.我认为，众所周知，它们需要克服短期的基建层面的挑战。比如地产市场上的供给过剩问题需要解决。宏观层面上，有哪些问题比较重要的？我认为首先是我们需要保障民营企业，保障这些企业有足够的信心去投资，将更多资金投入生产。此外，我们的制度需要继续大量培育人才，留住我们培养的人才，我们需要在国际上有足够竞争力的人才。

H:

After 3 years of COVID responses here in China, some of the multinational companies, they reconsider their China strategy. But of course, there are many more who intended to invest more and there are new companies who are hoping to get into the Chinese market. So what industries, companies will benefit the most from the current Chinese central government's policies? And what is their edge fighting against their Chinese or domestic competitors?

经过三年的疫情，一些跨国公司在调整在中国的发展策略。当然，有许多公司准备加大投入，也有新的公司准备进入中国市场。你认为哪些领域的公司会更受益于当前政府的政策？与本地的同行相比较，它们有什么优势？

N:

A lot of people are talking about are multinationals exiting China. As far as I know, there's not a single large multinational that will be exiting China anytime soon. I think that what people are all trying to grasp is one thing. Do I have the right to be successful in the nextten years, or what do I need to do to ensure that I remain successful in theseten years? And as they all come to this conclusion, one is talent. Are multinationals going to be able to attract the best talent coming to us? And the second one I think is actually equally important is that how much more localization do I need to do to ensure I can compete with the local companies out there in China? In my view, China is the most competitive market in the entire world. There is no close second.

许多人在讨论说是不是许多跨国公司正在退出中国市场。但据我所知，近一段时间没有一家大的跨国企业有这样的想法。我认为这些公司都在考虑的是，它们如何在未来十年在中国取得成功，或如何继续保持优势。他们得出的结论是，人才是第一位的，这些跨国公司是否能吸引到优秀人才。其次是本土化，这些跨国公司在思考，它们需要进行多大程度的本土化，才能在与本地企业的竞争中处于优势。我认为，中国市场的竞争激烈程度是世界其它地方无法比的。

H：

Multinational companies and domestic Chinese companies, they're working together actually to build a healthy industry and also contribute to the Chinese economy. So in your perspective, how does a healthy and strong Chinese economy benefit the world?

跨国公司和本地企业，它们共同为保障所在行业的健康发展以及中国的经济发展作出了贡献。您认为中国经济的健康发展将为全世界带来哪些机遇？

N：

The world needs China. This year, China's growth is likely to becomea third or more of global GDP growth. The only, in my view, one number that we know will likely happen is afive percent growth in China.Everyone is pretty certain of that. So I do think that the growth of China, the sustainable inclusive growth here is important for the rest of the world. And I do think multinationals, local companies, they all have a role to play in there. But competition needs to happen. The market forces will happen. But that's good. That's natural because in there, we become stronger, we become more resilient. And that is what we want.

世界需要中国。今年中国的经济发展将占到全球GDP增长的三分之一甚至更多。我们都坚信中国今年能实现5%的经济增长目标。我认为中国的经济增长，这种包容的、可持续的发展，对于全世界都很重要。我也相信，跨国企业，本土企业，都将起到重要的作用。市场竞争也将长期存在。这是市场健康的表现。在竞争中，公司会变得更强大、更有韧性。这也是我们都希望看到的。

跨国企业的中国新机遇在哪里？ 04:49 Share

魔都英语新闻丨ShanghaiLive

Shownotes Transcript

跨国企业的中国新机遇在哪里？