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cover of episode #749 - Seth Stephens-Davidowitz - The Hidden Statistics That Control The NBA

#749 - Seth Stephens-Davidowitz - The Hidden Statistics That Control The NBA

2024/2/24
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Seth Stephens-Davidowitz: 本书利用先进的AI技术对NBA球员的身高、遗传背景、姓名等数据进行统计分析,揭示了诸多有趣的趋势。例如,身高七英尺以上的美国男性中,只有约七分之一在NBA打球;身高每增加一英寸,进入NBA的几率大致翻倍;身高超过七英尺的概率是六十五万分之一。此外,他还发现,NBA球员的成功在很大程度上取决于遗传因素,同卵双胞胎在NBA中的比例远高于其他类型的兄弟组合。手的大小也是一个被低估的重要因素,它直接影响控球和篮板球能力。 作者还研究了球员的社会经济背景,发现来自中产阶级或中产阶级以上家庭的球员更有可能进入NBA,这与普遍的刻板印象不同。他通过分析球员的姓名发现,NBA球员中常见的姓名与普通黑人人口中的常见姓名比例更高,这表明NBA球员的社会经济地位普遍较高。 此外,作者还探讨了球员在关键时刻的表现(“choke”),发现身高较高的球员更容易在关键时刻表现失常。他还研究了童年经历对球员表现的影响,以及上大学对球员职业生涯的影响,发现上大学虽然能带来早期优势,但在长期来看影响有限。最后,作者还讨论了选秀制度的有效性,以及一些被高估或低估的球员特质,例如,站立跳跃能力比助跑跳跃能力更能预测球员的篮板球和盖帽能力。

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Seth Stephens-Davidowitz is a data scientist, economist and author.

Basketball is one of the most popular sports on the planet. Seth has used advanced AI to statistically analyse everything about the players, their backgrounds, hand-span, height, first names and more to uncover some of the wildest trends in the game.

Expect to learn what percentage of American men over 7 feet tall are in the NBA, why there is a huge outlier of the most common name of all NBA players, who the best height-adjusted player of all time is, just how important genetics are in basketball, whether the Draft is effective and much more...

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