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Russell Clark on Inverting the Long Short Hedge Fund Model and Battling Investors' Biggest Risks
2025/1/30
Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
R
Russell Clark
Russell Clark: 我认为传统的对冲基金长短策略模型存在缺陷。长期以来,许多长短策略基金经理都将自己视为小型"股神",他们过于关注多头仓位,而空头仓位的收益却微乎其微。这种模式效率低下,难以跑赢市场。
一个典型的长短策略基金可能持有10到15个集中持仓的多头股票,并撰写冗长的报告来解释这些股票的投资价值。然而,在空头方面,他们可能只做少量空头,并且收益有限。过去10到15年,许多专门做空的对冲基金都倒闭了,这足以说明问题。
我认为这种模式低效的原因在于,单一公司股价下跌90%甚至破产的可能性很高,而整个行业下跌超过30%的可能性却很低。因此,与其集中持有多头股票并做空指数,不如做多ETF并做空自己最看空的10只股票,这将是一个更高效的策略。
此外,近年来,长短策略基金的多头仓位越来越集中于美国大型科技股,这使得其投资组合缺乏多样性,难以获得超额收益。
在低利率环境下,空头策略的收益主要依赖于融资成本,而一旦利率降至零,这种模式将失效。因此,我认为传统的长短策略模型需要改进。
Deep Dive
Russell Clark critiques the conventional long-short hedge fund model, highlighting its inefficiency and struggles in recent years. He argues that the model's inherent structure, with concentrated long positions and often unsuccessful short positions, hinders its ability to outperform the market.
- Traditional long-short hedge funds often underperform market indices.
- Concentrated long positions and poorly performing short positions are common issues.
- Short selling gains were once primarily from carry, now diminished due to low-interest rates.
- The current model is inefficient; A long ETF and shorting specific stocks would be more efficient.
Shownotes Transcript