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cover of episode The Central Bank As Crisis Manager | Dr. Patrick Honohan, former Central Bank of Ireland Governor, on Crisis Management, Macroeconomic Shocks, & Tariffs

The Central Bank As Crisis Manager | Dr. Patrick Honohan, former Central Bank of Ireland Governor, on Crisis Management, Macroeconomic Shocks, & Tariffs

2025/2/16

Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

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Patrick Honohan: 我长期关注金融危机，发现每次危机爆发，即使在美国、欧洲或发展中国家，央行都会被卷入其中，不得不处理后续影响。然而，每次都像是突发事件，缺乏准备和规划。央行应该为金融危机做好准备，进行演练，并设想在危机中的行为方式。危机管理与日常价格稳定所需的品质不同，危机管理需要快速行动，可能只有几天甚至几小时的时间来采取决定性措施。金融危机具有内在的复杂性，央行需要迅速收集信息并理解不同金融机构和合约之间的联系。在危机中，沟通必须非常谨慎，既要传达理解，又不能过度惊吓民众。在危机时期，央行需要与政府合作，而不是保持距离，但这并不意味着失去独立性。在使用工具之前，必须了解情况并决定需要采取什么行动。错误的行动可能会适得其反，不必要的行动会给纳税人带来负担，并可能导致危机蔓延到其他领域。评估应对危机的准备情况和工具至关重要，沟通不当会损害未来危机中的沟通能力。央行需要全面掌握情况，并确保采取的每一项行动都与目标一致。需要有备选方案，即使这些方案不理想，但也要确保它们有效。让另一家强大的银行接管一家失败的银行是一种老式的方法，存在一些缺点。强大的银行接管弱小的银行有时会削弱强大的银行。量化宽松等购买资产的计划旨在改变整个系统的整体金融状况。紧急流动性条款是针对无法在市场上获得短期流动性的特定银行。我们更不了解如何处理不仅仅与银行有关的金融部门危机。新兴市场的金融系统出现问题通常与政府和非金融部门的信心崩溃有关。下一次金融危机更有可能来自非金融部门。每一个金融危机都是独特的。金融危机中必要的行为与中央银行在正常时期的行为不同。 Jack Farley: 作为访谈者，Jack Farley 主要提出问题，引导 Patrick Honohan 阐述其观点，并就具体案例和政策工具进行深入探讨。他从宏观经济层面和微观金融层面，对 Honohan 的观点进行追问，例如信用瑞士事件、欧元区危机、以及美国和爱尔兰的银行危机等。此外，他还就关税问题与 Honohan 展开讨论，并探讨了其对国际贸易和经济增长的影响。

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This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about VanEck Uranium & Nuclear ETF: http://vaneck.com/NLRJack)

Dr. Patrick Honohan, honorary professor of economics at Trinity College Dublin and nonresident senior fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics, joins Monetary Matters to share lessons from his latest book, “The Central Bank as Crisis Manager.” Looking at financial and macroeconomic crises from countries ranging from Iceland, Switzerland, and the U.S., to his native Ireland (where he was the governor of its Central Bank from 2009 to 2015), Honohan concludes that central banks must prepare to fight and manage crises in addition to their ordinary mandate of price stability (and, in the case of the Fed, maximum employment). Recorded on February 5, 2025.

Honohan’s Book, “The Central Bank as Crisis Manager” on Columbia Press: https://www.piie.com/bookstore/2024/central-bank-crisis-manager)

Honohan’s Book, “The Central Bank as Crisis Manager” on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Central-Bank-Crisis-Manager/dp/0881327530)

Honohan’s Previous Book, “Currency, Credit and Crisis: Central Banking in Ireland and Europe”:

https://www.amazon.com/Currency-Credit-Crisis-Central-Macroeconomic-ebook/dp/B07R699LFV/?encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_w=zS3eY&content-id=amzn1.sym.bc3ba8d1-5076-4ab7-9ba8-a5c6211e002d&pf_rd_p=bc3ba8d1-5076-4ab7-9ba8-a5c6211e002d&pf_rd_r=146-4087044-9452813&pd_rd_wg=rdvDv&pd_rd_r=18882405-c569-4216-9a47-f7da59ed6d66&ref=aufs_ap_sc_dsk)

The Central Bank As Crisis Manager | Dr. Patrick Honohan, former Central Bank of Ireland Governor, on Crisis Management, Macroeconomic Shocks, & Tariffs 01:19:42 Share

Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

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The Central Bank As Crisis Manager | Dr. Patrick Honohan, former Central Bank of Ireland Governor, on Crisis Management, Macroeconomic Shocks, & Tariffs