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cover of episode Annie Duke on Better Investing and the Danger of Grit

Annie Duke on Better Investing and the Danger of Grit

2022/10/19
logo of podcast Money For the Rest of Us

Money For the Rest of Us
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
A
Annie Duke
决策科学专家，前职业扑克玩家，著名作家和演讲者。
C
Camden
D
David Stein
Topics
David Stein: 我在飞机上尝试使用决策树和概率分析来评估投资决策，但效果不佳，因为在不确定性下，我们无法准确预测所有可能的结果和概率。 Annie Duke: 期望值分析适用于所有决策，即使我们无法精确计算概率，我们也在潜意识中进行评估。我们不会随机选择配偶，这说明我们潜意识中在进行期望值计算。尝试进行期望值预测能帮助我们识别已知信息并寻找更多信息，即使无法得到精确答案，缩小预测范围也有价值。即使预测结果不精确，但通过尝试预测，我们可以缩小不确定性范围，提高决策质量。理解风险与期望值之间的关系，并结合两者信息，才能做出合理的投资决策。 Annie Duke: 概率分析有助于避免将单次事件的结果归因于自身能力，从而减少情绪化判断。对于难以抉择的事件，应赋予每个选项相等的概率，并根据结果调整未来的决策，而非进行自我责备。概率思维能够减少决策中的情绪因素，并帮助我们克服自身偏见。通过考虑事件的发生概率，特别是考虑其基准发生率，可以帮助我们克服自身偏见，更客观地看待问题。通过分析历史数据和相关因素，可以建立更准确的预期，并做出更明智的决策。通过建立合理的预期，我们可以更好地管理投资风险，并做出更明智的决策。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter explores the challenges and value of applying expected value analysis to uncertain situations, particularly in areas like marriage and investing. It emphasizes the importance of making informed forecasts, even if precise calculations are impossible, and using base rates to reduce biases.
  • Risk is a type of uncertainty related to downside exposure.
  • Even without precise answers, forecasting helps us identify useful information and refine our confidence intervals.
  • Base rates, or what normally happens, help us reduce biases and make more objective decisions.

Shownotes Transcript

In Episode 406, David and Camden visit with Annie Duke about how to better manage our investment portfolios including when and what to sell. We also discuss a number of behavioral finance topics such as mental accounting, sunk costs, and goal myopia.

Annie Duke is an author, speaker, and consultant in the decision-making space, as well as Special Partner focused on Decision Science at First Round Capital Partners, a seed stage venture fund. Annie’s latest book, Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away, was released on October 4, 2022. Her previous book, Thinking in Bets, is a national bestseller, and is highly influential on the investing philosophy of Money for the Rest of Us. 

As a former professional poker player, she has won more than $4 million in tournament poker, won a World Series of Poker Bracelet and is the only woman to have won the World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions and the NBC National Poker Heads-Up Championship. She retired from the game in 2012. 

Prior to becoming a professional poker player, Annie was awarded a National Science Foundation Fellowship to study Cognitive Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania.

These days, Annie loves to dive deep into decision-making under uncertainty. As can be seen from her new book, her latest obsession is the topic of quitting.

For more information on this episode click here).

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Show Notes

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke)

Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away by Annie Duke)

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