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cover of episode How To Get Better At Risk Taking

How To Get Better At Risk Taking

2022/7/20
logo of podcast Money For the Rest of Us

Money For the Rest of Us

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David Stein
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我最近收到一封听众的邮件,她表达了对股市崩盘和中国可能入侵台湾的担忧。本期节目将探讨风险承担、风险规避、损失厌恶以及如何更好地管理风险和承担风险。首先,没有人能够预测股市是否会暴跌80%或中国是否会入侵台湾。我们可以从多个角度分析,中国短期内入侵台湾的可能性较低。风险和不确定性是不同的概念,风险的潜在结果范围较窄,概率可以估计,并可以购买保险;而对于不确定性,潜在结果范围很广,概率难以评估。股市可能出现80%的跌幅,但历史上已经经历过类似的市场波动。投资专家通常比较谦逊,不会做出过于具体的预测。风险承受能力和风险厌恶是不同的概念,前者取决于经济状况和时间范围,后者是心理或情绪上的反应。一项学术研究表明,损失厌恶程度与个人的资产、教育程度和认知能力有关。损失厌恶的程度受基因、经验和环境的影响。需要权衡风险厌恶和损失承受能力之间的平衡。经济需要风险承担者来促进创新和生产力增长。应该将一部分资产用于风险投资,以促进经济发展,并提高自身损失承受能力。从损失中学习,并采用哑铃策略。不要听信危言耸听,专注于可控因素,提高自身投资知识。区分风险和不确定性,并专注于可控因素。

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Shownotes Transcript

Five ways we can better take and manage risk.

Topics covered include:

  • How likely is it that China will invade Taiwan and the stock market will fall 80%
  • Why experts tend to be humble and don't make specific predictions
  • What is the difference between risk and uncertainty, and between loss capacity and loss aversion
  • What factors impact our degree of loss aversion and loss tolerance
  • Why the economy needs more risk takers rather than rentiers

For more information on this episode click here).

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Show Notes

Investor Risk Profiling: An Overview by Joachim Klement, CFA—CFA Institute Research Foundation)

Looming Large or Seeming Small? Attitudes Towards Losses in a Representative Sample by Jonathan Chapman, et al.)

The Global Impacts of Climate Change on Risk Preferences by Wesley Howden and Remy Levin)

Does Mood Take the Front Seat in Determining the Financial Risk-Taking Propensity of Individuals? Evidence from India by Crystal Glenda Rodrigues and Gopalakrishna B. V)

Venture Capital AUM at Record High of $2tn—Preqin)

10 Key Facts About the Capital Markets by Katie Kolchin, CFA—SIFMA)

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