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What Happens If The U.S. Defaults On Its Debt? Here's Why It Won't

2023/5/17

Money For the Rest of Us

Mark Zandi: 我认为如果债务上限没有提高，并且美国政府违约，这将是致命的组合。我们可以看到，这种情况可能会迅速恶化，并摧毁整个金融体系，最终导致经济崩溃。我的预测基于对美国经济和金融体系的深入了解，以及对债务违约可能造成的连锁反应的分析。如果美国政府无法履行其债务义务，这将对全球经济产生严重的负面影响，并可能引发金融危机。 David Stein: 如果美国政府违约，潜在的影响将是灾难性的。股市可能暴跌20%到45%，利率将飙升，抵押贷款利率可能超过8%。这将对回购协议市场和影子银行系统造成严重冲击，因为许多证券都依赖于美国国债作为抵押品。此外，由于联邦政府支出占美国经济的25%，支出中断将导致大规模失业和经济衰退。即使最终提高了债务上限，市场参与者也会意识到国会愿意让联邦政府违约，这可能会导致长期利率上升。然而，考虑到这些严重的后果，美国不太可能违约。国会可能会提高债务上限，或者行政部门和美联储可能会采取措施来避免违约。这些措施可能包括援引宪法第十四修正案，发行一枚价值一万亿美元的白金硬币，或者美联储允许政府在其账户中出现负余额，甚至购买即将违约的债券。虽然这些措施存在争议，但美联储作为最后贷款人，为了维护经济稳定，可能会采取行动。尽管如此，我们仍然需要一个长期的解决方案来解决债务问题，包括改进预算流程，确保政府支出具有可持续性。债务规模本身并不重要，重要的是债务利率要低于经济增长率。过度支出和量化宽松政策是通货膨胀的主要驱动因素，而通货膨胀一旦形成，就很难控制。

Deep Dive

Chapters

Experts predict severe economic consequences if the U.S. defaults on its debt, including a stock market crash, spiking interest rates, and a significant hit to the overall economy due to a halt in government spending.

A potential default could trigger a stock market crash between 20% and 45%.
Interest rates, including mortgage rates, could spike dramatically.
The halt in government spending, which constitutes 25% of the U.S. economy, would lead to a surge in unemployment.

Shownotes Transcript

What are the grave consequences if the U.S. debt ceiling isn't increased and the government defaults? What would the Federal Reserve and the Executive Branch do to prevent default if Congress doesn't act?

Topics covered include:

What are the potential impacts of a U.S. default on the stock and bond markets, and the overall economy
What causes the U.S. to have a perennial debt ceiling crisis
Why it is uncertain when the U.S. government would run out of money to meet its obligations
What the Biden Administration could do to prevent a default
What the Federal Reserve could do to prevent a default
Given the ongoing crisis, should you shift assets from stocks to cash?

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Show Notes

The Debt Limit Since 2011—Congressional Research Service)

7 doomsday scenarios if the U.S. crashes through the debt ceiling by Jeff Stein—The Washington Post)

A debt ceiling default would send the U.S. housing market back into a deep freeze by Jeff Tucker—Zillow)

Why is federal spending so hard to cut? — Recurring debt ceiling fights will only be solved by budget reform by Linda Bilmes—Brookings)

Debt Limit Default Is Default, Even Under a “Prioritization” Scheme by Richard Kogan—Center on Budget and Policy Priorities)

Why I Changed My Mind on the Debt Limit by Laurence H. Tribe—The New York Times)

The Trillion-Dollar Coin Might Be the Least Bad Option by Annie Lowrey—The Atlantic)

If U.S. again risks default, Fed has 'loathsome' playbook by Ann Saphir—Reuters)