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Which Inflation Protection Strategies Worked and Which Didn't?

2023/4/19

Money For the Rest of Us

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David Stein

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David Stein: 过去两年美国通胀率累计约为14%。为了有效对抗通胀，投资回报率必须超过14%。两年前，金融市场低估了通胀风险，五年期通胀保护证券（TIPS）的定价假设未来五年年通胀率为2.5%。这与实际情况相差甚远。美联储在2021年3月的预测中，低估了通胀的严重性，认为通胀将在未来两年保持在较低水平。然而，实际通胀率远高于预期，达到14%。美联储在2021年3月会议上表示，通胀低于2%的目标，并计划在达到就业和通胀目标前维持宽松的货币政策。直到通胀率达到8.5%后，美联储才开始加息，加息速度创纪录。 2021年春季，货币供应量大幅增加，虽然当时通胀数据并未显现，但潜在风险已经存在。我预测到通胀将会上升，但认为最终会稳定在2%-3%左右。应对通胀最直接的方式是投资美国I债，其收益与通胀挂钩，价格稳定。2021年3月购买的I债跟上了通胀步伐。 TIPS是另一种对抗通胀的策略，但其价格会随着利率波动。TIPS的实际收益率曾为负值，即使利率保持不变，投资回报也会低于通胀。TIPS ETF未能跟上通胀，因为利率上升导致价格下跌。而持有至到期的个别TIPS表现更好。商品期货是过去两年表现最好的通胀对冲工具，但其盈利取决于商品价格是否超过购买时的预期价格。黄金作为商品期货的一种替代投资方式，其表现略逊于通胀率。股票是长期对抗通胀的工具，但在通胀高于五年期平均水平时表现不佳。股息股票在高通胀时期表现优于非股息股票，特别是股息增长型股票。 Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF (INFL) 表现优于通胀。房地产在过去两年表现不佳，但长期来看仍然是良好的通胀对冲工具。 Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF (IVOL) 表现最差，其期权策略未能奏效。建议采用最简单的通胀对冲策略，例如购买I债和TIPS。INFL ETF表现良好，但并非直接的通胀对冲工具。虽然通胀率有所下降，但仍存在持续高通胀的可能性。持续进行通胀对冲是有必要的，因为未来的通胀情况仍然存在不确定性。

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Chapters

This chapter analyzes the accuracy of inflation expectations from two years prior, comparing the Federal Reserve's predictions with the actual inflation rate. It explores the reasons behind the significant discrepancy between projected and actual inflation figures.

Two years ago, financial markets did not anticipate high inflation.
The Federal Reserve's inflation projections were significantly lower than the actual inflation rate.
The Federal Reserve's policy rate increase was the fastest and steepest ever recorded, responding to unexpectedly high inflation.

Shownotes Transcript

With a total U.S. inflation rate of 14% in the past two years, we review how various inflation hedges performed over the past twenty-four months.

Topics covered include:

What were investors' and the Federal Reserve's inflation expectations two years ago
What led to the big inflation increase
Why was the Federal Reserve forced to raise its policy rate by almost 5% in a year
How successful were inflation-index bonds, stocks, commodities, and real estate in beating inflation over the past two years
How did two active ETFs that set out to protect against inflation perform
What is the current outlook for inflation, and what should investors do

For more information on this episode click here).

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Show Notes

CPI Inflation Calculator—U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Inflation Beneficiaries ETF—Horizon Kinetics)

Quadratic Capital Management)

Investments Mentioned

iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP)