Good Conspiracy: ESG, Assemblies, HPS
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Here we go.

Welcome to stuck. You are weekly podcast where we talk about stuff relent into money I might live in and I read the money staff calm for blimber opinion and i'm katty .

gray filled a reporter for blimber's ws and an anchor for blueberry television. What do you talking about today, kate? We're going to talk about esg and whether index funds are illegal.

We're going to talk about maybe an answer to shareholder voting. And then we're going to talk about black rock. H PS. IT finally happened.

Black rock finally bought h.

PS. But let's start with esg. Turns out, at least according to texas, that's an entry trust violation .

has happened writing for almost ten years are inexpensive, legal. And I didn't invent that idea, but I feel like I ve done a lot of popular as a and within the next few years, IT might become the case that index funds are illegal. So texas, in some other states, some states LED by texas, sued.

What do we in the business, called the big three as some managers. So bangguo black clock and state street for an alleged, and I trust conspiracy, where they allegedly all got together and pressured coal companies to cut the production of coal to raise the press of. And that is the anti trust conspiracy.

Y now there's a long running theory that these big diversified asset managers like black rock and guard in stage story, but also like some of the smaller, less in xi managers because they kind of own every company in an industry, have a desire for the companies in that industry to get together, cup production, not compete with each other too hard, raise Prices and like earn outsides margins because they are not competing the way they would have. They're all in by separate owners. This is like a long running theory.

It's very controversial. And one reason it's controversial is that no one really thinks that those meetings happened to the classic examples airlines. Anyone really thinks that, like black rock sends people to the co of airlines and says you need to stop competing with other airlines on your roots because we want you to raise ticket Prices and earn more profits.

And me, everyone else there is to your presses, are more profits too. And no one really thinks that the airlines, ecuador woods listen to those conversations. So there's just not like a lot of evidence that these index fund companies, these big investors get together and actually explicit tell companies to cut production and race Prices, not like the problem with a lot of these anti trusty theories that they go.

Look, these index ones own every company. So isn't that a weird anti trust problem? The huge exception to that is E. G.

The huge exception to that is that the big asset of managers really did sign on to stay and saying we want companies to achieve net zero emissions. And that is all well and good when you're talking about consulting company is trying to fly us or whatever. But when you talking about call companies talking, you Better call company learning.

Its emissions is very similar to talking about cal company is learning its production of coal and so if all of the big shredder of all the big coal companies get together and say of the coal companies, you should learn your production of coal and the coal company is go and say we have loved our production of coal in order to meet g goals then like I don't know that kind of looks like the owners of all the companies getting the other and saying in a lower reduction to raise Prices. And so you have this lawsuit saying not only that, blackrock and bangguo signed on to net zero budges and then urged companies to lower their emissions, but also that these coal comedies caporal of coal into rising demand for coal and the Price of called sod and these costs ies MIT, quote, cartel like profits. So I don't know it's kind of a cool lost IT.

If I were black rock or vanguard or state street, could I defend myself on the emissions? Is point saying we didn't mean for you to lower production. We didn't mean for you to start mining coal.

Just do IT in a more Green way. Does that hold any water? I don't know. hard.

Like I think there are a lot of defenses here, and this is like a creative, and more than that is like a slam dunk. Sd, even if the story was, we just want to took bind in in a Greener way, and that raised the cost of mining or like delayed mining like that would still be sort of production cut. But IT sounds like obviously the case that if you are generically and eg investor, thirty coal is kind of your least favorite thing.

And so yeah, there is some amount pressure front companies to shift away from thermal coal mining. And like the losses you don't see like explicit stability from like blackrock saying code, we shouldn't mind code more. It's more like statements like we're going to engage with companies about their climate goals and try to really understand how they see the future of the market for general coal.

It's all vague statements, but that is all suggestive of the idea that the people are writing those statements. Ments are not the believer. S is increasing the production .

of their coal, something that I feel like i've ask you before, but i'll ask you again is whether I intent matters when IT comes to and I trust like surely when you know, putting together these esg flavoured proposals for these coal companies, blackrock wasn't trying to like boost their margins and lined the pockets of these coal companies.

So a couple of points. That one, the lawsuit says IT doesn't matter that they think they were doing this for the good of the world. If you have a conspiracy to restrain trade, if you have a conspiracy to lower production, that has, if I, to raising Prices, the fact that you are doing IT for some outside benefit is not a really good antitrust defence.

On the other end, it's a very weird claim because like these losses, its they are anti trust, lost suits. And so they are arguing that blackrock and vanguard were getting up to have cartelli profits in the coal industry, which is a strange claim. A couple reasons.

One is, like most of the time when politicians complain about esg, what they say is black rock is usually the punching back. Black rock is not being a foodie for its investors. It's not trying to get the the highest returns for investors.

It's not putting profits first. Instead, it's putting its own moral interest in climate changer, whatever, ahead of the financial interests of its investors. But this was that says, no, no, no, actually black right esg stuff is making a cartelli profits, right? Like the esg stuff is incredibly lucrative for these big as of managers, which is just this strange game. It's not really a claim that blackrock could make any mean. I think a lot of S G.

Investors should say this is actually in the long term financial or of our investors, but they're not say we're making cartel like profits by cutting down the money cause but it's also not something that by the eternity general of texas would say in any context outside of this lawsuit, right? The etty general things to say, oh, black one is not putting the investors that was first except here, IT is here. It's making a lot of money for investors. So that's like a funny little place.

Everything that's weird is that the coal companies are not defendants, right? yeah. If you are worried about antitrust spiracle in which the coal companies are earning cartelli profits by all agreeing to cut back on production, that why are you seeing the coal companies? And again, the answer is political, and the answer is like you will be ware for the other general taxes to see all the big cold communities. But to see black rock is fun. Yeah.

that is so funny. I mean, if you mention that black rock is often the punching bag here, I thought that .

much you most like because they put out more public .

as that's true. And I mean, vanguard is just a passive beast, just a passive animal.

But entirely, there are much less like public about IT and they're much more than their heritage, is much more index fans versus black. Like like owns a lot of index lanes but is also more of a heritage at bb manager. But yeah.

you're right.

This is a conversation .

i've had with vanguard as well that they're also in on the active game.

I mean, I of us I mean like intentional steward dh of even their passive holding, right? If you are a massive c index file manager, you have to think about how you vote your shares and you have to think about, you know whether and how you engage with the companies. And I think vanguard does not say we didn't not have that right. I think they have some sort of so of the same sort of stewardship thoughts that like .

I do think it's interesting that something that brought up in this lawsuit is the fact that the big three are part of these like various climate groups. Some them they are named are the climate action one hundred plus. There's also the net zero asset managers initiative.

I mean, that's pointed to as proof that they formed a syndicate and agreed to use their collective holdings of publicly treated coal companies to introduce industry wide output reductions for several these groups. I mean, state street, for example, quit C A. One hundred plus.

In february, vanguard left the next zero asset managers initiated in twenty and twenty two was never a part of the previous group as well. And that's also acknowledged in the lawsuit that at least for several these collectives, they're not even part of these anymore. But I know it's a weird thing to point to as proof of something. Also, I I just don't know how much teeth is involved.

I agree with that. I think I think the last year has to mention this because one antitrust claim you could make is that blackrock itself or you know one of these three managers just by itself, because that owns big stakes in all of these public companies. IT has some incentive and some power to make those companies good together.

Like black rocket self could go to meeting at all the coal companies, say, cut coal to, like, boost the press of the other coal companies. And maybe that's an attached isolation. But that is less compelling because black, because you know, passive minority shares, it's less compelling than saying, well, between them, the big three and thirty percent of all these coal companies.

And so they have enormous power. And the fact is that for a while, the big three asset managers all sort of made similar experiments about being interested in the sg and being concerned about climate disclosure and talking to portfolio companies about how they think about climate change. And it's possible that those statements were all independent, right?

It's possible that if you're a coal company, you have a lot of shareholders who are separate, unrelated shareholders who are all interested in climate change and were worried about yes to issues. And so as a coal company CEO, you have to respond to your various sharell ders who all care about us or many of care about, but that's not an anti trust problem, right? They give all of your sharedalal dependently worry about climate change because it's like a fact in the world.

Then that's not an ntori ous problem. The energies problem is that they i'll get together in a group, right? And so that's why the lawsuits mentioned these groups I agree with these groups do not seem to have a ton of teeth. I think this are not literally like backroom meetings of the heads of blackrock and background and states should saying that's cut coal production like they are a group that you can put to where they all sort of got together and sign out to the same. Steven.

let's also talk about what they're trying to achieve because this line caught my eye. I think IT leads in nicely to what we're going to be talking about next. So the senator asking the court to bar the three largest U. S. Investment firms from using their stock in coal companies to vote on shareholder resolutions, which I don't know, that doesn't seem very healthy and good just to the voting power of specifically these three altogether.

I think a lot of people, not just that ideas to people, find IT weird that so much the voting power of stocks is controlled by, literally, Larry, think right by, like the people in charge of stewards p at these three companies. And this is not the first suggestion i've seen, that I actually just the index ones shouldn't be able to vote. That would solve all the problems.

I is a weird solution. I don't know that, that solves all the problems, but saying these big firms shouldn't be allowed to vote their shares is not an uncommon proposed solution. Actually, IT sort of crude gets out the issue of like hate to weird that they control so many votes and they have sort of different motivations from other shareholders because they do on every company and they do sort of represent a lot of passive investors who maybe don't supervise their writing choices .

that lesser yeah I mean, you tweet anything about black rock or if you spend even five minutes on twitter, at least the circles said, I run in and you'll a lot of conspiring theories immediately.

But what if they really, they truly lend themselves concerned trillion dollar company that controls every company you like? If you know, is the company that like biggest of every company in the world, like it's a good conspiring, it's a good starting sentence for conspiracy. So they do to try a lot of conservative.

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We have a noble solution that's been proposed to sort of solve some of these issues. Do you think we should .

talk about that? We should talk about IT. okay. It's a proposal from Oliver heart HEllen and more and the ages and alas in plum berg weekend about how to implement shredder demob cracking using shareholder assembly.

Ah so this is interesting. We kind of compare IT to basically a jury where you select a sample of the shareholders IT sort like a sampling sort of technique. And a bond index .

fund was more like a lottery a Terry, well.

I mean, IT reminds you of a simply technique just because you're not onna, get all of the bonds in your index. So the hope is to pick a sample that sort of accurately represents the demographics or whatever.

But you're right, they are picking Randy a and you give them each one lottery tickets for each share of the fund that their own. And then you choose you know hundred fifty lottery tickets. And so you collect hundred and fifty people who are in some sense, representative investors in the fund and then you get them together in a big room and they talk about what the funds voting policies should be so that instead of, like Larry think, deciding how black rock will vote, it's shares in coal companies. You have like, you know have some people in a room that were like alternately, the direct investors and like the black agent, and they get together and they decide how black I could put its shares. And then their decision after deliberation and consultations is the new policy for black book.

And this is specific to a mutual funds. And they do propose that you if you have a larger investment, you would have a higher chance of being drawn, but everyone would have an equal voice once actually in the assembly, which I also don't know how to think about that obviously with the jury, that makes sense. But if you own a ton of shares in a mutual funds, shouldn't you have .

a bigger vote because of one of zero? It's not like direct democracy. It's it's a random sample to get some people who seem vague representative and they has had something that seems like you might be workable for everyone.

Like my impression is that there is like a lot of overstatement of the importance of shareholder writing. Like I don't think that like blackrock is influential or that yes, he is important because of how black rock votes on shareholder proposals at call companies. Like I don't think that's the thing that is driving.

And you think that these shareholder posse are frequently sort of symbolic non mining proposals. And so it's nice for the company to win the vote against the shelf proposal. IT doesn't like it's an annoying embarrassment to fight over these things, but it's not like with the driving force behind like you know how the CEO lives her life for his paid or anything like that, right? Like the thing that matters is you voting in contest, the proxy emerging.

But it's also like the soft power. Then you're coming in black, White coming in and having a meeting and saying, hey, we'd really like you to give up this school or whatever. And I think that like what that means is that the sort of explosive voting policies are less important than the informal meetings and engagement that these firms can have.

And you can only really have these assembles to set the explosive voting policies right. Like you have these meanings to say, we will vote in favor of your proposals to, like, disclose more about climate change or whatever, or against them, or what you know that people will get together and design, but you can't have the assemblies show over the meetings with the companies. That's going to be the black rock stewards team, right? And like those people are going to continue to be those people and they're going to be you're going to have sort of professional biases that those people have.

And the voting policy will be a sort of marginal change rather than like a real change in like how black rock Operates itself. Now people really care about the voting stuff. I don't like there's a lot of like focus on you. Backdrop is like a number. These funds, these big fun firms, are like experimenting with path through voting wear.

Like the shareholder, the ultimate beneficiaries of the fund can vote their shares, or they can choose from a menu of policies that will drive the votes so they can be like a little bit more responsive to, like, the ultimate beneficiary of interests. And so this is another way to do that. I just that I don't know how much this matters. Like the voting stuff is this sort of like show we visible stuff. But i'm much how much .

matters and sure of those people that would disagree. But the past for voting doesn't seem like a terrible solution, especially when you consider sort of the logistical problems that would come with these shareholder .

or investor assembly. The pad is very git because yeah you have to vote like like I actually implemented is like you choose from a menu of like three different voting policies and then they do the voting for you that actually passed through body and the sense that like, you know yeah I got gets like a thousand proxy stability and you get to choose how you vote your little shares on each one .

of them yeah in terms of those, what is being proposed by these three professors? They talk about, you know, gathering one hundred and fifty people in a room. And IT sounds like a pretty intense process. And they say you, since participation would be voluntary, participants should be adequately paid, provided with childcare. Eta like that seems like quite an uphill battle, a drop in the bucket .

compared to running trillions and trillions of dollars of money, and also like a drop in the bucket compared to running trillions of dollars of money and getting in trouble with politicians because you're voting in a way that's different from that. You if you have like a good way to sort of point out, like we have a good.

but just in terms of like who would actually agree to do that, like who would take time on their life to participate yeah exactly. They propose that to .

people to and ready anyway. So I so that through.

but self election obviously would still be a big problem here I was like.

reminds me of a paper by john codes, the harvard law professor. It's called the problem of twelve, which is a great title. It's about the idea that, like he says, twelve, many people now say three, but there some small number of asset managers who end up controlling most of the votes, most of the companies in america.

And one thing he Wrights about is like they've gotten to that position sort of like the accident, and there's no thought given to how they exercise that power. And IT worked now increasingly see people thinking about how they exercise that power. And one thing he proposed is like, there's like all these rules of administrative law for holic us.

Federal agency should have to like make decisions now they should like make new rules or they should make enforcement decisions. There's just not at like process around how federal agencies make decisions and like obviously the big asset managers have some process around how to make decisions, but they get all internal. It's all voluntary.

It's like their company is and they make decisions however they want to make decisions. There's this idea that they shouldn't be completely free to make decisions on their own. They're like now like a sort of qazi public function.

So there should be some public process. There should be some like way for citizens or like investors to like come in and give them some feedback and tell them how to make decisions so that they're not just like making unconstrained decisions. Reminds you like to facebook oversight board, we're facebook is like we don't know how to moderate our content.

We're going to have like some official supreme court of moderation. This is like one more proposal. I have to do that of how to get some sort of process and public input into how these asset managers make decisions. And I think it's like not quite right for like how they actually influence company is, but it's a gesture in that direction.

Yeah I mean that ultimately, I feel like if you're a public company, your stock Price is going to be the ultimate sounding board. If you make a bad decision, your side Price will probably go down eventually. Like if you make enough bad decisions that they aweh the good decisions, but obviously, that's more indirect.

Yeah, I mostly agree with that. And I think the stock Price is the main disciplining mechanism. Shareholder vote is a secondary disappointing mechanism. Like you could imagine a company performing perfectly well financially, but like annoyed enough of its like locked up index investors that someone raises a proxy fight and gets management kicked out. I got a little bit what happened with x line and engine. Number one, I did managment ted kick up, but they did lose a proxy fight, not because investors were particularly disgruntled with the financial performance, but because, like a small activist fund, was able to kind of get support from big index y investors to change some policies. So like agree with like it's mostly that Price is what Better is until like all this stuff is like a second tear thing, but there's a little bit of this stuff can affect our companies actually Operate.

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math. I think we should keep talking about black rock.

It's the the world's .

biggest asset manager, and they're trying to get a lot bigger, specifically what IT comes. Well, y'd like to get a lot bigger and they'd like to be a leader in private markets. And boyer, they spending a lot of money to get there.

Well, they spend .

another twelve billion on H. P. S. They spent like twelve and a half billion right on a gp.

About a year ago. And I forget how much they spent on frequent, but that was mostly about data. But H P S, I mean, we've been this has been written about and speculate on for a while now. And they finally came out and announced ed, that they're buying H P S.

Yeah IT feels like we're in a really White hot time .

for private credit.

And a gold, a golden and golden ages always feel like golden ages, like I can tell, like the last moment. And hp s. Seems very smart. They did a very smart job here where they made a lot of noises about and like went pretty far down the word of going public and talking about a very high valuation for their idea, and they would made a lot of noise about, and I went part down the road of like raising big minority stakes from like middle of south n wealthy funds. So there's a lot of I talk about we're going to have some mark where the thing is worth ten or twelve billion dollars.

And then they were able to use that kind of public pressure to get blackrock, which was pretty obviously pretty desperate to buy a big private credit fund. And like H, P S was kind of like the biggest target there. You able to use that like all those Marks to get blackrock to pay twelve ve billion dollars for H P S S business. And you know like you get the sense they think that kind of a rich valuation .

and are very .

happy if you're deal.

Yeah, I imagine so. But as you read about recently, money stuff, they're not into the sunset. They are going to continue to work. And I mean, that's important because is like .

a bunch of articles in bloomberg about holic, there's a huge intent of compensation package to keep all the h best. I like they're getting all of these big retention bonuses and they are taking all their money in blackrock stock and they're keeping billions of dollars of like their PS in like hp s funds. You're saying all of that because, yes, it's surprising, right?

You're saying all of that because you need to say all of that. Yes, they are not just cashing out and selling off into the sunset, but it's like IT feels like such a good and rich and timely excited. You know you have to be like, no, it's not an exit. We're fine.

We're still here. Yeah yeah. Well, I mean, you think that all the the cellar notes have been written about the deal talking about concerns about culture eta, and you highlighted the best one which got at IT pretty directly from ever core, talking about how this does not come with execution risk. This is a people let business and assets go up and down the elevator every single day, so they need to come out with these sort of noises.

yeah. So they like you can obviously see the appeal to H P S. And besides of the trouble, very big private credit fund. But this is a business that has gone from being like a kind of like weird niche business of being a huge institutional business.

And like if you want to get really big as a private credit fund, you kind of need a really big platform at this point and like a platform to a god and market to big institutions. And you know hp s is like largely a high yelled direct lending you firm. And paul ly, the next wave of private credit is more like fast credit, private credit. And to build that out, it's just seems like IT would obviously be helpful to have like black rocks, enormous size and client base.

I mean, I to say that other than got, I wish I was being bought by black rock in some. resting? I don't know. It's just it's so it's so black rock the way that they've approached this for, I don't know, a couple months like oh, black crocks trying to catch up in the the private markets. Now it's like when this closes, what they are going to be managing like six hundred billion and alternatives and now there you know close to the top little .

leader board yeah I mean, it's funny to be like you think about like the giant gas managers blackrock comes from a places you know think a boy manager venture being an index manager and like black son Apollo care come from places of like being O B O shops and the convergences in this like private credit world where it's sort of is like being public credit investor because yeah, it's like credit stuff and it's increasingly I investment credit stuff and it's sort of like being L B O investor is it's like a lot of IT it's financing L B O.

But so like you can come to IT for you the direction and IT is like that sort of vast middle and we're like you if you are running a giant private credit strategy. Now you're talking you about to go. We try to invest.

My credit company is we're like you kind of look like a bon manager when you say back, I has six hundred billion dollars of alternative like they're not doing L B S. Like alternative. Like there's a range of what alternative can mean and it's like it's fixing come credit stuff.

Yeah, another one I wanted make just about like this being so black crack. I love you. T F, as everyone knows, and you think about how black rock became black rock in etf, they buy barclays global investors for thirteen and a half billion.

I think that was announced june two thousand and nine. And now you look like fifteen years later, and they manage close to four trillion globally. There are the biggest nut absent that was also in organic growth. They just bought a business in that, that built and built built. So I don't know it's a similar player to what they always do.

Yeah I like black like you know it's like synonomous of being a giant a writer but it's yes like like I come from a place of thinking of them as well, like back to fix income manager because that's like ultimately their head, right. But like kind of feels a little different because like IT doesn't feel, especially when I take all right, this is the sort of thing where everyone is going to have to have a private credit business.

And because there are a big company, they had have a big one and so they would got a big one. But like, I don't know that I could be like the provider of private credit. They're to be one of a dozen.

I can't wait to talk about this. And fifteen years.

I don't want to just flatter you because you're any T F like E T revolutionized areas of finances.

You're so same more.

And in five years, private credit is gonna like bank that's give you like taking the fish book is give me other way of financing deals. I think that like ultimately the people are adopting ant to talk about private credit. Is this thing from public credit in the way that they do now because they still feels kind of new and interesting now where are E. T, S? I really are, you know, different from like the can be.

Yeah, I agree with you there. I also was not paying attention to U T, two thousand nine. And like, I would love to just go back in time and see how that moment fell.

You know, like when black rock made that splashy thirteen and a half billion dollars purchase for eye shares, like what did that feel like? I wonder how that was greeted. And I don't know. Maybe do that in my spare time because I don't know. I talk to a lot of like people have been in the utf industry for like two decades and like you hear them talk and they're like, yeah, we used to be like toiling lay in the dark. You know, we were just like obscured and known, really cared about us, and now were, you know, at the center of the world.

So I this episode about racial turn come to etf. Just like how could .

IT not everything .

comes back to etf? IT does .

when you're a hammer, everything's a nail.

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