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cover of episode Eagles and Jobs and Tariffs, Oh My!

Eagles and Jobs and Tariffs, Oh My!

2025/2/7
logo of podcast Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
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C
Chris deRitis
D
Dante DeAntonio
M
Marisa DiNatale
M
Mark Zandi
P
Preston Pysh
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Dante DeAntonio: 作为经济研究高级主管,我认为1月份的就业报告总体来说是个好消息。新增就业岗位14.3万个,与预期基本一致,表明就业市场依然健康。虽然过去三个月的平均新增就业岗位有所夸大,但潜在的月度就业增长约为15万。医疗保健、公共部门和零售业是主要的贡献者,其他行业的增长相对较小。虽然我对就业增长过于集中在政府和医疗保健领域有些担忧,但这些仍然是好的工作岗位。此外,失业率降至4%,工资增长为0.5%,年同比工资增长为4.1%,这些数据都表明劳动力市场基本稳定。 Marisa DiNatale: 作为全球预测主管,我赞同Dante的观点,认为这是一份稳健的报告。休闲酒店业、制造业和专业商业服务业的疲软表明,就业增长的范围正在缩小。过去一周的其他劳动力市场数据也支持了就业市场稳固的评估。此外,我认为一月份的劳动力市场流动性通常比平时更大,这可能会影响工资数据。零售和休闲酒店业在假日季后出现下滑,这些都是低薪职业,也可能导致一月份的工资数据略有上升。 Chris deRitis: 作为副首席经济学家,我认为这份报告总结得很好。国债市场上涨,10年期国债收益率超过4.5%,这表明报告强劲,降低了美联储近期降息的可能性。总的来说,我认为劳动力市场表现良好,但我们也需要关注潜在的风险。

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Dante joins the podcast to break down the January employment report and provide his odds for an Eagles Super Bowl victory. The job market is starting 2025 in a great place, and the team discusses the implications of significant revisions to labor market data. Finally, the conversation turns to tariff policy as everyone weighs in on which tariffs, if any, are likely to stick around and the resulting impact on the economic outlook.

Guest: Dante DeAntonio, Senior Director of Economic Research, Moody's Analytics

Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics

Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn