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cover of episode November Jobs: Back on Track

November Jobs: Back on Track

2024/12/6
logo of podcast Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
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C
Cris deRitis
D
Dante DeAntonio
M
Mark Zandi
Topics
Dante DeAntonio认为11月份的就业报告显示就业市场恢复正常，就业增长强劲，大部分行业都有增长，但制造业和零售业表现较弱。平均工资增长强劲，但家庭调查数据疲软，与工资单调查数据形成对比。他认为10月份的异常情况是由于罢工和飓风造成的，11月份的数据并没有显示出就业市场的基本面发生了变化。 Mark Zandi认为美国经济状况极佳，就业市场强劲，失业率低，工资增长强劲。他认为4%的工资增长目前并非问题，但如果生产力增长放缓，则可能成为问题。他还认为，美联储很可能会在12月降息，然后暂停观望，观察经济形势发展。 Cris deRitis认为市场普遍预期美联储将在下次会议上降息25个基点。他认为，鉴于当前的经济形势和市场预期，美联储可能在12月降息，然后暂停观望，观察经济形势发展。他还指出，美联储的基准预测已经改变，预计将在12月和3月降息，然后暂停，直到有证据表明经济朝着正确的方向发展。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The podcast discusses the November jobs report, highlighting a return to normalcy after volatility in October due to strikes and hurricanes. Key points include a headline job growth of 227,000, positive revisions to prior months, and broad-based growth across industries.
  • Headline job growth of 227,000 in November.
  • Positive revisions to prior months, bringing the three-month average to 173,000.
  • Broad-based growth across industries, with healthcare, hospitality, and the public sector leading.
  • Manufacturing and retail showed some weakness, with retail declining by 28,000 jobs.

Shownotes Transcript

With Marisa out on assignment, Dante joins Mark and Cris to discuss the latest U.S. employment report. After several volatile months due to hurricanes and labor strikes, the job market found its footing in November, with payroll growth reported across most industries. The team considers the report's implications for monetary policy and the long-run interest rate outlook. With all of the policy unknowns, they conclude that the only certainty is uncertainty.

Guest: Dante DeAntonio, Senior Director of Economic Research, Moody's Analytics

Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics

Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn