#73: Elon to Lead DOGE, Bitcoin Surges & the Trump Alliance
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Does bitcoin had one hundred cave this month?

The general friend with most norm core people, as they buy high and sell low.

We have elan, who has officially announced the .

coherence of the doge department.

Elan is glued to trump hip at my sitting on every single meeting flash and burned x claims in the federal government.

What is the conflict of interest work with like space ex and anything related to department offence.

It's not actually cabinet. It's not actually inside the .

government so far, what are not taking cabinet positions are taking ambassador .

or ships are you .

never want to be on the board.

You want to the board observer. They're behaving exactly like venture capitalists and super v.

They are getting internship.

Okay, guys, is welcome to another episode of more or less and brit, your blond, your drink and like, what is going on?

Wait, what what is happening in L. A? Is that actually one?

This is the work week. It's actually for IT. Just I won't born a couple days ago because I in the like, I don't give a fuck phase of my life.

And I was like, i've never really tried something this DRAM dramatic. And Frankly, it's an A B test. It's an A B test. I want to know to blind him fun to people take me as seriously like what are the implications add got hit on once today at the airport. My way was IT because i'm born, I don't know.

just saying trouble .

and i'm not drinking wine. This is some fruit juice thing that a girlfriend i'm staying with done here. Now I SHE is a sha he from our place, if anyone knows the friend hosting me. So there you go.

Love, tell her, her blender is life changing.

Is our blender.

Yes, our two year old makes themselves smooth. This is the best host. We love the blender.

Our place is the number one site for like all of your hosting dinner wear pots and pans, everything you need in your kitchen. So that's my plug for heard today for hosting .

me yeah by the blender. I honestly, we bought like three containers for IT. So okay, britton, L A.

Sams in the pull house. Sam, any update from your end? I am actually wearing the switcher in honour of you. You guys can't see when i'm wearing my .

harvard switch art because sam .

delivered an awesome interview yesterday of Larry summers about the future of higher education. I kept thinking I would drop out of the zoom and do work, and I just couldn't because I was so interesting.

That's how you know on these live zoos, how they are going as you just watch the number of participants. And if it's going down, you're screwed as long flat go up here in good business. And that one IT was good. Several hundred people really stuck IT out through what will package IT .

will put on the internet. We're going to want .

them take away shortly. My big news yesterday, I got a terrible overnight stuck bug and I had to do this thing with Larry um and I basically fend the entire day like on conference calls lying bed, but I had to do this so I went I found the iv people, have you ever done the I V drip?

This is so L A of you.

Yeah we love the I V drip.

Yeah it's apparently it's incredible. It's apparently very dangerous.

Why why is a danger?

Because you never know what's in the actual I V vitam. Like there's no testing, there's no standardization, like it's really dangerous .

in downtown send matteo ah I believe all that.

But when you just google ivy drip and then pick the first result off of google, go get one of downtown stay with tail. Let me tell you that ship rocks.

That was great.

We .

will do .

again.

crazy.

It's amazing. They give you real drug. We should do IT on the .

same day just went, I was so excited .

because just got her first colonography. And I was exercise because I love the drugs, that golden gate coin, doc y whatever center and SHE like that, like, no drugs. And I was like.

this is like, why get A L up? I woke up and I was me wasn't like, I on everything and sam had twice sold that. Like, I should just take the day, go see a movie out.

It's the stuff that what's his name or d on?

No, they don't use a shocker.

Stanford has figured out how to titrated this stuff.

They use actual and now they they use.

which is what that rockstar died taking. Oh yeah, so good.

Speaking of viewer ship tanking, that's happening right now, I can tell.

Yeah.

let's me so some sams plug the week. Iv drip. Dave, what's your plug of the week?

The lingo continues. Lucas.

monitor the lingo. yeah. I mean, I think you .

recommended IT on this very pod.

I have done the C.

G, M thing years and years and years ago, but started up again. And it's always fascinating to see .

gave how is this changing your lifestyle right now?

Well, it's only a few days, but I think it's interesting to see what foods create Spikes in your glue. Cos which ones don't? It's always interesting.

Do you have any date of? Because I did IT for like of two weeks and my answer was it's fine there. No, I had no spiky as I I get the idea .

i've had no real Spike is yet. So we'll see. So that's the problem with .

the product as I feel what I want is like a performance version, right, which is like tells because I the only thing I could get to move with if I went on a really long run, like start tanking and then your body would recover IT back up. no. But figuring out I feel like there's some athletic add adaptation that would be cool. But the for people who don't have diabetes, i'm less convinced.

I hope this company doesn't have a subscription business model because IT seems like the turn .

rates probably .

really high after .

like you do subscribe. But the other thing that I learned and this was at the dock conference a couple weeks ago, is there is a couple of apps, one of them called levels, which a lot of people have talked about for many years, being the best C. G.

M. APP. But there's another one called the neutral sense, and they combine IT. It's somewhere like what you're talking about, sam, where you get the read out.

But there's also a nutritionist in the APP that is reading IT for you and telling you how to optimize. Um I think that actually what I need because i'm not sure what the bikes are doing and me know how optimize that. I seem to be in the Normal range at all times.

So it's like U S T, G S.

Like you're fine.

You're like thanks sprise. Perhaps OK more interesting is at this stock conference, I also learned about a test called the super test, S U P A R.

I love test. Yes, it's an inflammatory .

marker blood test developed out of denmark. I just got the results back. And IT tells me that i'm aging at the perfect rate. So I am aging at, uh, rate of one, so I am actually forty four.

I haven't checked my result.

which is good and I and I don't have inflammatory problems, but you should have your results.

I do. I just got the .

email and you're probably going to be like aging IT of less great. Me.

oh my god. Let's read them live. No, yeah, how was one brit?

okay. Do you think i'm more or less super than dave?

You're clearly Younger than death.

Well, even if we were the same age.

do you think i'd be more? Your bird is coming up to couple of, yeah, couple of weeks. I think this bad thing is related to that .

bridge turning twenty five.

Yeah.

I get card at the other day. Two things are going well for me guys.

Um I just got a big review. It's like a gender review. Go.

oh, my aging rate.

Yeah, aging rate.

Aging rate point eight six.

less than one. ron.

Chronological age thirty eight. But my biological age, thirty three, thirty, go.

So, no.

sams literally buying me one of these right now, so I can take IT and he can compare IT.

No, I gotta try aging rate. The only thing I have is my dexter scanner says i'm twenty eight, even on forty one. So i'm proud of that. I think I want to go lower.

but you need the super .

no complexes here in silicon valley on age. None at all. Okay, guys, well, I I don't have anything to add at the moment, although actually do with one thing to adi.

Just would like to make a public service announcement that I also like feedback about this pod. So let me explain. I feel like all week long, dave, britain, sam afford ding emails they get from, like, happy viewers and constructive criticism. And then last week.

cookies showed up cookies.

Cookies showed up for some from a very satisfied listener.

Did he lick them?

That would be funny. This is not fair. I want cookies.

Well, I was close listeners.

The pod, I stand. Why the cookies?

I so I just wanted put IT out into the universe that again, nothing that is gonna violate any ethics things because I am a journalist. Don't send me like fancy things but but i'm here for all of IT to know that. Okay, guys, it's been like a very busy week.

Are you a journalist when you're on this pod? Or are you not a journalist on this?

always. Unfortunately, I can't turn IT off as some you care.

That's not how works.

I can turn IT off, but people still see me as me.

So I feel like i'm gonna .

list a couple of blends we could go down and hopefully we agree. So IT has been another big week in A I um the information has LED the charge on reporting about how in particular OpenAI but also google now are reaching slowdowns in the rate of training their models.

shocker. Who would have possibly guessed that .

would happen? We had a really detailed story about this very specifically, what sort of quantifying the gains they are see now versus before. What they're doing about IT was a huge story for us. Actually it's a IT was amazing to me, even in a really heavy new cycle. Yeah.

this is like, surprise, surprise. I everybody's intuition was this. And now finally, we have the data to prove.

And then we have another piece this morning about google readers. And bloomberg, many days later, reported the same thing they don't like to do unless it's really important. So that gives you a state. But so we've got where we are with with A I bright. You've pointed out there are some interesting things going on with advertising and some of these AI search engines and models that were starting to see, which is probably a topic we have not covered as much, but we really should because guys that we probably have also undercover red, the potential break up of google. I know we ve talked about IT.

but like that's like the happy with trump as .

president no yeah, that's a game over question now.

Well, I think and i've actually started to do some actual reporting on this topic and my strong hunches are really is a nice juicy settlement coming, nothing imminent, but there's still waiting for courts to come back.

And that sounds right because I can just imagine trump like giving the press conference on that about the gc settlement from google.

Such a settlement.

the biggest settlement history .

sett is ge.

It's huge. No one, no one. But I could have made this settlement.

You know what guys? You know who's gona negotiate the settlement? And elan musk is going to negotiate the IT.

And isn't any friends with the gay how's .

not going to work or no. Elon and Larry were quite first for some time, and i've had a treat mendous falling out.

right? Oh yeah. Glad one of us keeps up with all of this.

This is my job.

Keep up with the tea keep.

I have so much t day morning.

just cus tea corner. I is funny how all of a sudden this weird configuration of the current landscape, all this inside baseball relationships, silicon valley stuff, is now at like the center of global geopolitics. Kind of, well.

yeah, it's not IT is kind of strange. totally.

Let's go there.

Let's let's not over index on this topic. But yes, we have elan who has officially announced the coherent for that roa .

swam of the department .

of the doge department dict ous department of .

government official is doing like a billion in trading today, which is like unbelievable. I don't know. I didn't look at the actual change and volume, but it's pretty dramatic now.

Well, it's in twenty eight billion in trading, but that means so I amount of of trading but bitcoin salona ripping.

yes. And we should talk about sam. We're you're gona talk about how doge was a such a terc point to begin with is at the point you are about to .

make he said there is his dor's coin. It's like he is a later doctor doge coin but but yes, he's certainly is loves the mean who doesn't love a good mean? This is whole half geocaching thing about how like the most amusing outcome is usually the one that happens in the world instead of alchemist razor is this simple is like just the most amusing .

outcome is what happens. The kers guy.

the ker got philosophe. Seems like that's the era we're living in, is that we are in most amusing era, for sure. And I feel like until it's all real and we see what the outcomes of, who knows? But IT is very amusing .

well here and then I I do want to do want to go too deep politics here.

but three means, we've got doors. We have maha and maga now, right? So it's like the, the, the mean constituency.

So elan's taken over this post he created on government efficiency, slash the federal bureaucracy. You know, insulated speculation. This, obviously he did.

He cut twitter by forty four percent or fifty. I don't know what you did. He slashed and burned x, and you know, claim he's going to the same with the federal government. Listeners that the pod should know that are very informed sources don't think he will do the same to the federal government because the constitution, as well as many other federal statutes are very specific about how the federal budget works.

Yeah.

but what do you guys think will happen? I know that. Specular, what should people be looking out for here?

I think the U. S. Government should be worried they going to the advertisers.

and then IT should .

sue those advertisers.

How does, how does the conflict of interest work with, like space eggs and all in names are like, not asa, but like anything related to department of fence.

like we may be in the era. What's known as no conflict, no interest.

is a bad place to be like.

I don't know that we have laws around because never have this happened before. Like.

well, that seems to be the thing that's happening here, which is that they've created a job title, which is basically like a external senior advisor title IT seems like to me it's not actually cabinet. It's not actually inside the government. It's more of a this is a senior advisor. I don't know what actually i'm not a you know a belt .

way that right, dave.

But you know, i'm like an armchair expert at this at best. And that seems like what's going on here is that theyve kind of invented a title that's fancy and funny. But really what's happening is we've got a you senior advisor from industry that, you know is advising the president and that basically seems to be what have is happening to talk.

I should point this, people interested the topic. C would probably all of you, the near times had a very good story by teddy slifer about, you know, sort of how, I mean, elan is glued to trumps hip, but marios go sitting in on every single meeting and, you know, has uncle status according to his grandchildren, and is fascinating and like very important to understand. I mean, I think the day after the election, I was getting a lot of text from people saying, you know, okay, how are the what's going to happen now that the tech growth are going to take over government and so forth? And you know, I think so far what's happening is is the the tech brows are not like taking cabinet positions.

but they are taking ambassadorships.

adding on the .

position in .

jobs that don't matter the closest to advisors, right? A about .

IT just there are basically behave.

you never want to be on the board.

You want to the board. Observer, I was behaving exactly like venture capitalists and sense elon is basically a super VC.

Well, especially because they would have to sell their control.

They're all getting internships. They're all getting well. The interesting move, which I think people have to fully come to yet, which I always very fascinated, is when some wall street guys have ended up, I think, in cabinet level positions you have to sell everything yeah totally. But this is very important, heavy out. You don't to pay taxes like you can differ out your taxes on the sale.

Wait, differ or not pay that those are different things though .

that this is important to look into. But there is something where like you basically get and we should look into this if if readers care. But there's a hack where I was.

Some goldin sax guys got cabinet positions and they're like the reason they did that or like a some level of senior to the government is because you are forced to sell, but you want to pay taxes on the sale. And so it's actually an incredible diversification strategy. If you are in the point of one percent, I can pull that off. So I am not even sure the tech brows realized this yet, but there probably is some level of strategy if you're being totally jacon, ian, about IT, where IT actually makes sense to get a very senior position for a tax free university.

So do you just hope that does that start on like the day of the inauguration because and then you just like hope that all the markets keep climbing until like january one year.

I know just like it's like it's just instead of having these fans can take your pride, your shares of a company and you contribute shares rather than that thing, ash, so you can get free diversification into a basket of goods is kind of like that, but on massive steroids, right? So if you have like a massive appreciation equity and you want to diversify out of IT, this is like the the ultimate government strategy to do IT.

So i'm sure the tech grows this because the tech is like nothing more than tax avoidance. So are strategically and avoided.

What are you talking about? Just tech brows like to create value, not care about tax.

Some of them some of them .

we maybe we know different .

once a day.

But but anyway, so yes, I think phase as of a week these guys are very, very whispering in the year of trump I think um I have to go and talk on C M P C about this tomorrow and maybe you guys can give me some talking points but I was asked a question of when general, what taxi s and ceos think of trump and you know at first I was like, well, they're really, you know, cheering potential deregulation. Obviously, the market is up so strongly.

But as my reports continued, its IT sort of LED to like they're concerned about a lot of contradictions and troops policy. So for example, you know how china will actually shake out. You look at a company like apple, but just can't be you know, for apple, just tremendous amount of business makes this product so on and so forth in china even you know elon needs raw materials from china. So I think the mood i'm hearing, but i'm interested in what you guys are hearing is more of like, okay, you know yes, there are some very specific deregulatory things we can be excited about, but also a lot of concern about how the terrorists s and and other potentially contradictory policy moves will play out seem reasonable. Yeah.

I look I think everyone I supposed to my very wise trainer this morning about this and he's like, you know, IT is what IT is. Let's see how I place is. It'll be interesting.

I think that's kind of the the mood i've heard from a lot of people. As you know, it's going to be in it's good shaking up the the chaser ard for sure in a whole bunch of ways. And I think everyone has confidence that trumps ego is very tied up in the economy going up um which you know that alignment is probably good if you're in private business broadly.

Um but you know, I think it's kind of a wait and see. It's clearly at a shakeup of the whole how kin cobo to. But I think at this point, everyone, at least in my world, i've heard a lot of people saying, and I know these these groups exist.

I heard a lot of people saying, you know that you know, their communities are very depressed for their communities at this or that. And you know, again, all to based on you are filter ruble and who you talk to you, but the people I talk to you are kind of like except IT as what happens, excited, the market is up and kind of in a mess. Let's see what happens.

Tight mood and the crupp dose, the crip dose, the crew that someone says me, another bitcoin stock Price chart.

Oh, nothing. Your husband been doing that every hour.

Well, I somewhat, I was using IT in the gene.

I got your point there.

We're very happy the crypto is ripping, and I do think so. There was real regulatory overhang. People are worried kind of what that was going to look like. And you know we'll see.

sam, does bitcoin had one hundred k this month?

And I mean, it's that's within random at this point. I mean, the well, the the only thing that i've heard contrary to that is that, look, I think that there will be a lot of sell pressure like like just come around one hundred k just because a lot of people have been up and down. That's a good number.

I'm out. And so I don't I don't know. I mean, I you know like of many of us on this call on like a long term cyp to holder will continue to be and have no intentions of selling or anything. But I I think the hundred k one hundred thing k thing is kind of an emotional thing .

more than a practical thing.

Yeah the Price, my favorite email that i've received this week was, I won't reveal who but samon. I got an email from someone that we were involved in a kirpo H A little corpo fun, together with saying, note to self, always listen to salmon, dave.

See, I don't get emails like that other what's you got .

an email this big? Just I copied you on one oh yeah.

you did actually take spread.

We are trying to convince this person to keep all the money in in the crypto about a year ago.

So here's a question for you. Venture capitalists do now those VC who kind of pull away from crypto complaining? And again.

no, I think it's probably pretty pragmatic.

I think some L, P, S. Are going to come back in though you .

and that does VC. I'm interested .

what sam has to say, but the general friend with most norm core people, as they know by high and seo.

so i'm going to buy low. And so hi.

you're not both. Are you discount .

P S or V C R S are great, but but most mean, like, look, you know, there there has been some funny means, obviously passing around about everyone coming off the A I train and back into the into the concrete. I actually think there is something else going on them, which maybe a little more intellectual, which is people need a good narrative right in a given time and you i'm really in this you know everything's narrative at this point mostly because i've been reading, uh, Harris kids books to our older sign, which you're great. And if you think about that, I always love reading the intellectual.

They're Better than what he was reading before. The interest cal kids .

books are great because if you think about IT, what they do is they take this ideas that they are trying to write for, like intellectual audience. There are hundreds of ages like we going to do the kids version. And the kids version is Better than the adult version because they have .

to simplify for kids, right?

ChatGPT explain IT like on to talk a lot about like the important story telling a narratives. And I actually think that has gone to, I think some went out of the A I story because the stories going to be about infrastructure in amErica and like all that type of stuff. And so you see, like it's funny, just your article we are talking about, you know, kind of the flattening of A I curbs in terms of training.

It's like how well time is that? It's like just as that train to start to slow down. And i'm sure i'm seeing a lot of pitches from A I startups that really aren't where they need to be in overrates than whatever they are to reach the mean the moment.

But IT also a lot of people decide this kind of moving onto the next narrow, which is trumped office. What does that mean for the economy? Infrastructure.

but everyone investing defense start up totally.

And so it's it's going to be I do I do think that is not crypto might be a little bit of that story. I think crypto is much more global and like a different story that that I think is very powerful, obviously. Um but IT is really interesting as I do you think we're seeing a narrative shift right now in terms of what the norm core silicon valley tech audiences is focused on.

IT is moving off of A I everything into U. S. government. Trump .

defends eeta. What are the what are the drivers of that narrative? I mean is that a society be silicon valley with because of the nature of capital and venture capital and having to attract? Is that the press? I mean, i'm a little tired of IT, to be honest, narrative shifts.

You want to stick with the same narratives of the future?

No, no, i'm just tights, the wrong word. But like you can see these inflection points and and it's more complicated than that because take crypto, right, you often have a couple things going on. You have a hype cycle going on. And then in many cases, you've like these fundamental marches forward that are interesting but less sort of I grabby, but IT is amazing. I don't know sometimes like I i've been reporting on this for twenty years and so like throughout A I mean, i'm and in the information is probably seen as is one of the more cynical publications covering I I .

which I I think is completely .

unfair because yeah, but I am sort of like you can feel IT coming and you can feel the turn coming and then you see the turn. And then and now we've been .

talking about IT here for a year, right?

But I think like this is the interesting I I so I really pup u will call momentum investors I want name that is a lot of people out there. They clearly the strategy is as venture capital where they're doing, they don't really start from first principles. They see what's moving and then whatever is moving that is double down.

It's like the classic see a line, go to the t, get out in front and lead IT type thing. And I I find doing that extremely signal big. But but there is if you're just in the .

game for making it's one type of investor.

it's actually it's a pretty good strategy, honestly. And if you're purely looking at them from like money making perspective and like those people are very, very sensitive to like what's the next trend? great.

I'm going to go out and lead in front of IT and like stack up, that is. And it's finally how I move on. Um I don't know I I find tiring and not interesting and much more interested in first principles. But but IT is I think that is worth acacis wodgate.

That's a value strategy, but I know it's not are doing that at seed and growth stages. Are you just talking .

about moments of the company itself? Is the same people in the people that are on twitter all day.

some people do they do .

the problem doing seed is that the lead time from when you invest to the realization is so long that you might have gotten in front of the parade. But that doesn't mean you made any money. Whether if you do in the public market is great, right?

I think most of the time you don't make any money. And that's actually what's most dangerous about these cycles, particularly foresees investors right where I know slow is offline is uh you know several others very disciplined about right like you cannot get into these cycles and pay high Prices and um you know throw bunch checks around when things are behaving like that. That certainly .

how I Operate. But I also entertain the fact that there are very good investors who take the other other approach of just being like fine, going to be the leader of whatever the movement is at the moment. And you're right, IT is hard to get liquidity and x from me, but everyone. So while they cash the right thing that does actually work, I think it's easily signal about strategy. It's kind of one of those things you just get tired of IT more than anything else.

Is my vibrate like where what is your thinking on A I investing these days like you're you looking for the company that's like got like the A I like arcade right? Like um so cool sort of building 3d products， but with an A I .

but I mean this this area is like infrastructure application, but only if there is like in the application layer like a legit proprietary mote or like really vertically integrated.

You see A I um there's also a lot of unique business models like we've been really interested recently and how A I is, I think, sam, to look in a different way like the exclusion of SBS and creators and entrepreneurs and then all the tooling and automation that those people need for different things is really interesting. And so like leverage AI to build new markets is is really unique for us. A I within different components of B2B to c a nd hea lth car e and mar keting and sup er ver tical zed cha nnels.

Um so so I think like that we have certain segments of the market, but I will agree that like it's already feeling like people are coming to the table. There's like an outdated feeling to some of the pitches. It's like there was a wave of like some of the ground lean ideas. Um there are still good ideas coming to market. But I feel like a lot of funds have taken positions on the chess board and have kind of like submitted their strategy and sort of going deeper into those these these areas.

You know, I I made investment this. I should pitch my investment this week. That was, you have to .

you know what you want, and you can change your linked in profile to reporter .

and investor conflict venture.

Well, I did change to add more costs, more or less to the pod overside oversight. So I A need specifically less than media, has about six or seven angle investments and new businesses, the latest of which announced this week nick carlson, who was the enter chief of business insider, starting a new company .

with hen lodged .

as is cofounder.

No, but it's .

called outsider.

In this video. And so I don't even know like I need to actually read the press release to know what I can say or not say. But basically, nick, in in running that major newsroom um for number of years, including their video business, has a really good insight into how to make high quality, really informative videos um on on the whole range of subjects and so that's what their kind of news studios .

is gonna video a possible?

Yeah man well.

he's no he's .

very self aware. So there's a great, great profile in the times um of nick and dinamo written by the million and it's the the sub head is just don't call IT a pivot to video so everyone's aware but what's really great first mark is um in the round and lot of great Angels and um I think nick is doing something very intelligent, which he's not going out in raising ten guzzle lion dollars. He's doing a very, very kind of targeted rays and very focused on ramping up in cash flow and and scaling the business. So it's always fun when I lower journalists to the entrepreneur side.

So it's so cool and companies actually make money. How just .

yeah no, it's very cool. But I wait. I'm excited to see what they do and I have more coming. So okay, it's happening in venture. How will dislike I found myself wondering if the sort of equities warring on the trump bump somehow provides another tail in to I mean, obviously not in the short chairman. That's really much more the exit market.

But I know but I do think IT brings in more like I feel like L P. S. In the market, especially highlight worth individuals.

more family yeah people just feel richer .

were sketty sh and now they feel Richard. So they are probably going in like I do think they're going to take more position also, the ratios are back in venture and sort of risk on assets because trump will probably, you know.

make that all easier. It's not just trump. I mean, we're also shifting to a deflationary period.

You know the polls yeah, I would disagree. The fed is currently in a deflationary position. They might change their tune. The numbers that came out today were not great.

But I think overall, the the general sentiment is that the last two years, three years in the private markets we've talked about IT many times have been pretty awful, right? The liquidity environment is terrible. You cancel companies.

There's no ma. There is barely any ipos. It's just like hasn't been a great time to be doing private equity and venture business.

And so the hope is back, right, that, that might come rolling back. And you know, I think there's a bunch of reasons for that, but I think the new regime will be one of them. And so I think that generally something happening.

I do think there's one shoe still a drop, which I saw a few articles today discussing IT, which is willin icon, remain at the ftc. And um you know who knows? I think I I also .

have been fixed on this, but someone told me I shouldn't be fixed on IT because basically SHE won't be chair and he may stay in her seat, but then should kind of like turn out. So that's survive.

I'm hearing I think that if that stays that unclear, then you know venture will be in a precarious place. But if that becomes very clear, then you will have a different how come well.

I do you think that most companies will be ramming up in and that I mean, even what is happening in the public markets like the baLanced are just like everything problem. I think the .

big difference, britt, at this time is like I think companies have learned that most tag on type things and certainly act hires to start worth IT, right? It's like Better to double down in your core business. You can go over what yourself.

I don't know, depends what you're tacking on.

I mean, here here's an interesting thing that again, I I had I actually did some reporting this week. You know microsoft is when the only stock text tax should be under performing as of yesterday. I don't know maybe is over performing as of today to which I apologized. But one and I is is saying, oh, that's because they're spending so much in A I and investors are skeptical al, this person said, no, it's because activision IT was just a bad deal.

So you know, it's interesting because in in our tiny bubble, silicon badly and A I and you know where saml means the coolest cat in the clubs, microsoft is seen as like having made a lot of good strategic moves, but like public investors are being like that acquisition not so good. So I I think there could be a lot of headwinds also. And this gets more to the CEO sentiment.

I mean, I think the sentiment is that the trumpet administration will be very uneven um in how they approach this right and that for companies who he is more antagonistic too, you know they shouldn't expect you know free whatever clear skies or any of that stuff, right? I mean so I I think it's and then the public I really push my finance team on this because for as long as I ve covered tech, the IPO window has opened and closed at some sort of rythm. That then was a good predictor of IPO activity, but is usually correlated just to what the market is doing.

The market has to be up a certain amount for a certain period and the IPO window opens and this time is just breaking that player. That's just not happening. And I think there are a lot of reasons that are much more structure on the markets that aren't going away so well. Company is and we had a big story about database doing another secondary this week um like data bricks, like time go out next year. I mean, maybe probably, but like I just don't see A C change.

We'll see. I mean like like the I I also I would be very skeptical of the o rein larger because I just think that the idea of small companies sense right sub ten billion dollar of public companies. The end in question is like you look at read IT just .

ripping right which IT is life three sixty has doubled since I P O in june.

Just say sin, but at the classic rei P O I P. But yes.

I an say like even if you .

just look at the numbers, IT was an po and the stock has almost doubled in six.

sure. So great.

So great. That's a good point. What's happened there? So right, IT, we was is user growth. That's why they're ripping what's happening at life three sixty.

just like solid quality metrics, great business model introduction of advertising, which might category our topic today. You know just like solid, solid performance, honestly. And and the markets seem to really love IT. I mean, thirty percent consistent. You know you were your growth and you know casual, positive, a bunch of different metrics that are really headed in the board.

Yeah well, I just know encrypt, this is whole idea of there's like bitcoin season and then there's earth coin season. And what happens in general, the yle is big in runs up a bunch. People get excited about that and they are diversifying into all coins and the old coins. The second will continues back, big coin.

Bbb, and I think, like you have to think about the traditional equities market the same way, just one degree, which is you wash bitcoin, is the facebook, the sorry, the matter, the google, the amazon, whatever, the the biggest country in the world, they are the kind of gold standards that they run up. And then there isn't a fact, a wealth effect for people have more money and they're looking to diversify somewhere, so they start buying red at stock, right? Fix like that.

So IT is very possible. The really the IPO would know IT reopen. And I think I will reopen for the biggest the private companies would be that diversification wealth effect strategy. Or if the market runs enough and people are feeling rich, they're na want to diverse high into new public equities.

Um but on the flip side, I think it'll be you know the story is the same, which is so he sends that bitcoin slash meta slash, google can just keep running and there is no up about to IT. Why not buy them and just call in a day? I think we'll be .

the real tension that's gonna be that's the question. Watch um britt, do you want to talk about advertising was like we should probably spend more time talking about business models on this .

podcast getting paid yeah this is kind of our internet business model broughten ly a broader topic which is like keena for so long a lot of people have been questioning how l ms whether it's OpenAI perplexity anthropic get set up, make money um beyond just subscription right. And um so the number of them have tested advertising, which is kind of a funny product feature within an L M interface.

It's like how do you do IT what that makes sense? And I think the news of this week is perplexity is now starting to test into this. Um you microsoft like being like actually had done this through like being A I something and had shut IT down like different people have tried and failed.

Google is obviously still figuring things out with gni. And so I just wonder what the pod uh thinks about whether or not advertising within alem is going to be a sustainable business model, that is the business model of the internet. And if so, like how how are people actually going to use IT?

I'm shot. So break where you og go at them .

you know actually.

Um at our women's conference, the head of google search is read, got a number of questions from the audience about like how does A C R work in A I N S. So like clearly like a huge, huge I mean, I don't see why I won't work on at the core level because like if anything, the ability to be like a recommended products or service would be like very valuable to a brand.

But we don't know how these things are gonna scale and be used until what degree like they are more variant of the search link experience and like the sort of chatbot experience just that. That is all such an open question. And um but but I have there's huge commercial power in intention. So I I think they'll definitely be the potential for for really impacted ad product way that perplexity .

is like integrating IT is by if you do that, if you have a prompt and you get a response, I will suggest follow up questions to ask next. Brought you by X, Y and z.

No, that end. Yeah, that's stupid.

I'm like, i'm like this. This really what users are going to click.

You have to think about this more like social media, yes, like the the the pure intent based, you know google style business models are extremely powerful because the users just quite literally telling you exactly what they're looking for and then you can sell them and add that you know gives them what they're looking for. Everybody's happy. All the incident are aligned.

That isn't the case always with how people today are using the core you know Jamie ze and open uh check ChatGPT. You know you're using IT sometimes for something that you're looking for, but other times for things you're trying to understand. And so what's really happening on the back end is that the um you know the product where's perplexity or gemini or open a eye is building a vector of you right of all all the time.

They sort of know what you're interested in. A good example of this is over the weekend, my former C O O from path actually paying to be any said, hey, you've gotta try this ChatGPT query, which was, hey, chat. G, P, C, make a picture of me based on what you know about my life.

And it's a really interesting exercise to see what comes back. And what IT came back with is, you know, it's a reasonably good picture that is a part of my life, but it's not all of my life, right? And so to me, that's the story of what's going on with advertising on these platforms.

Tell when the picture .

was .

that I was like, you know, me and you and the kids on a boat in front of the golden gate, I was like holding like a mystic orb in my hand and then, like in the other hand, was like a bunch of business and you know, charts in but I was all like very mystic and like ideas and stuff is very interesting. And that's like, you know.

part of my life. I think that's dave not .

show maybe right now. But in order to deliver good advertising to me, like they need to have a way Better understanding of what my vector is and then to deliver you a diverse corp corporate of ads, not the similar to what met is achieving right now um across all of their properties. And so you need a lot more usage.

You need a lot more usage and a lot more context. And I don't think just guessing using a eyes is gonna be the way that you get there. I think you actually need quite a bit of interaction from the and even sam altman in this week, I think said, hey, everyone is super great.

ChatGPT search is now available to everyone and it's so great it's even doubled my own engaging with the product, right? And that kind of says everything to you, right? Like they need people interacting with that a lot more for a lot more reasons in order to build a good ad market. It's basically the identical thing we were working on a facebook.

Well, there's I thought you want a different direction with this day, but I think that's right. But here's a different uh taking the same thing, which I think actually the way I think it's the moto social media, you need a new add format that doesn't exist.

Well, yeah, we also need the data to deliver IT, right?

Yeah we just do early facebook like an web original web facebook. Actually you can kinda jm, pretty traditional ads into the rail, right, and make money on that. You say, like you like you are searching for a semble shit. And here is like a pretty easy to deliver originally standard .

that IT took a long time. yeah.

And then there was a big debate and big argument, right, that ultimately about bringing ads in defeat, which was ultimately really about mobile. What happened was basically moving in the mobile world. All the ship in the mobile, the sudden ad units that everyone was used to on the web just didn't fit you.

You didn't put them there. And so they had do this new form at the feed adad, which was kind of the big unlock, but basically made advertising much more natives to the experience of facebook, is a way Better format. But IT was really contentious. IT was a really contentious at the .

time to mix across multiple generations of facebook.

So moving moving into mobile was like this. IT was like a really, really big fight because that was like that for users and the other spaces for advertisers. I think this is the same thing.

They play out with these chat and interfaces, which is you're gonna start out with pretty boring, easy to sell ish ad units that are even understand that really differentiate between effectively what is the content of the experience, right? Which is the chat experience there is like what some random brought you by or whatever. That's pretty easy to put over to table experiment with, but isn't very compelling.

And the story of advertising the land is you, okay, how do you actually bring meaningful commerce into the experience in line? And then look to this day is a huge problem the social media companies face where people get really upset about the of knowing what's an ad vis what's not an add, right? And like kind of what the differences in the ad load, you can have all the same problems you started doing in l and only worse, right? Because the form at is actually either is much harder, uh, I think.

But to do that, well, make that differentiation. So look in the in the rest of time, you know, will there be ads in the LLM drivers? Of course they will, right? And you know what, they figure out something, it's fine.

It's unclear to me how will monodist versus things like social media. Um it's unclear how will monodist. Certainly the search for this high is either high intent or a lot of engagement.

I would argue that with ChatGPT or any these allies, in theory, you should have the opportunity for even more intense, right, because you're going back and force you have more the context this is talking about in practice, until commerce moves, there is really not clear that you do, right? So we will see what happens. And then engaged wise, like there is a potential future where someone spending all their time chatting with these imaginary characters, there is so much engagement you can modified.

But right now, instagram, you know skin and bikini pix are just way more engaging, right? You going to spend a way more time scrolling that stuff. So I just don't you know you onna have to figure out where that all lives.

Do you think at some point, advertisers, uh, just like go to GPT and they are like OK, I i've wanna run a new campaign. Here's my budget. Here's a little bit about the new service or product time launching. You create the ads and serve them at the right place.

right time, right place. That actually is the use I .

think google already works like.

But now you're talking our own book and telling everyone to go to brand dot eye.

But that is that already happening and .

that is that will like OpenAI will just have the embedded and anthropic and .

like you know like .

or will you like run this .

through a different time is very, very hard business. A bunch is a reason, as a tony, dead bodies on the attack bandwagon. This is already a company like that are doing right. Like this is like if there is one use case of.

i'm just wondering how the other elms will do IT. Like do they have their own back end that it'll just be like, just trust us will run IT for you. And with the right creative .

IT depends how powerful they are, right as platforms. And then IT depends kind of how the market dynamics shake out of advertisers with love in general commodity interfaces where they could say, I don't care, like i'm running at everywhere.

but because they feel like they're such brand like things like value, they don't want to go outside the back like they wanted know exactly what words you're using in the advertise. Like how much will they let these AI platform must around with the creative?

Um I think it's the future, right? Like it's what we talked about last episode. It's like why trump one, right? Like the brands willing to sort of just engage in this new emergent content creation world are the ones that are gonna in and they're going to need like to be guided by good eye to be I mean that spirit like that's quite literally why we created brand. Da.

I understand. I'm just suggesting that if like if if opening is building this on their own, not using brand day, I um there have to be boundaries, right? Link, I don't want to, I don't want women in bikini in my ford musing. And this is the story of social media though.

People got more and more comfortable with whatever, being wherever, right? IT used to be the .

case that you like, except for x, right? like. So I don't know. I I think how this all shakes out is like obviously very T B D.

But I do think that there is not going to anything unique about this time around versus previous times, right? And the reality is buyers want standard formats and they want interfaces up to stack where they can optimize just for, you know the cost of acquisition, the cost of sales and what some of the big platforms will try to own their own infrastructure. And it's a huge lock in, right?

Like if you can own the advertiser interface, it's more you think about why is matter so powerful. It's as much because they own the in experience for ads as IT is because they own the engagement, right? It's very hard to break once you have IT.

Um but I think they just play out the way IT always plays out in these things. You'll have one or two people who really control that. You will have aggregators for everyone else.

IT kind of be a mess. Um a handful of people make money, but the attack is historical, extremely our way to make money. yeah.

Well, IT is important to watch and related to the google in a trust cases, google in A I and so and so forth. So good topic, right? So guys we are we are only less to time um should we bring up the um pcc item of the day flash week here, pop culture corner.

which is what the color of buffalo .

s winning this is I have to admit i'm behind the just you're .

going to have to take the lead .

here in schooling the the window .

to the wall I busy going blond and a .

ch of the year no this .

time to .

do with something i'm on the neck times culture section at the moment and there is an article britain by near times culture reporter about the big release just dropped by mark zacchary g and tea pain which mark has recorded in acoustic version of the song get low, which is not safe for work people and you can stream this under the Monica z pain on spotify. Mark has posted all his social channels. IT is an honor of his anniversary dating anniversary of his wife so maybe we just got to everyone to give IT forming.

get low first.

Soler IT IT was playing on their first day and he performing.

okay, they have dinner and now they met at a party. I know I am just for like tonight they're having dinner.

They're like happy .

anniversary.

And guys, it's pretty forma.

I'm I think it's very creative and .

funny whatt pains one of the best producers of all time.

So that's not hard. When I didn't know I was playing when their first date, I thought that I was really random. But now I get IT, so i'm in for .

um I do love that it's on spotify. I love IT on spotify.

He was never gona put IT on apple. I mean, what IT were? What's the interaction? I just really .

hope that mark makes a ton of money on spottis ed screens from this that would make me really happy just in the history of the internet.

I feel like elan and mark are now so like a heavy and pop culture that i'm like sooner and time, and others are gonna need to step IT up on the pop culture aspect.

Well, that was actually the take. I mean, I don't think the new york times, the new york times is no fan of meta, but this article is worth reading because IT kind of IT posit is by their like culture reporter and IT positions that is like, you know, Marks rebrand. And this is another kind of capstone in his sort of odd but fascinating moments from his statue to A T shirt line and so on and then IT kind of ends by like saying now the balls is in contrast to you on who's now obviously going down the the politics and um and so IT sort of jokes that now the the ball is in ion's court to find a song to but aren't both .

the same thing. It's like in both cases, whether you're in pop culture, Taylor swift land or whether you're in politics, they're both just american pop culture of different flavors. And it's all of this stuff is just W W F characters like .

so I think ten cooks behind he needs to get in on this.

Well, it's really .

something ten cks just like winning. He's like got the best, biggest company of all time and he just doesn't care.

I mean, I or you could say tim cook in these guys only need to replace with they are the like they are going need to find their next up and coming executive who will be chosen based on there by their instagram post yeah.

I mean, that's what are doing with the department of defense.

So, you know, god, I it's also interesting. I mean, everyone should listen to the song. IT is a very explicit song.

Look on your face.

There is just .

a place which two thousand he's .

singing IT in an acoustic slow down version .

with a with tea pain auto tune but it's like it's not exactly singing.

It's basically full out auto tune.

Okay it's order or to whatever is and again, people if their cup tee you can not stream IT all day along on spotify um and make mark rich but in the history .

the world the bark ends up making a fortune music that would just be wonderful like it's like twenty one hundred.

I agree it's .

not onna happen, but the question is sort of interesting to me that like people sort of haven't commented on the explore nature of the song at all.

I think because because our entire millennium p culture, we all grew up with the stuff. It's just Normal.

I get IT, I get IT but but remember like I mean mark was was gonna a .

contest contest and there were .

people who are upset about that, you know and this to me seems like a .

but their identical moves. There are identical moves, right? All you have to do is look at facebook dataset to know that like these types of pop culture moves are what drives engagement, right? Like M, M A drives engagement, are just elected.

The president, like these types of things. Tea pen is having a huge resurgence. And his, you know, producing career like these are just looking at facebook dataset.

making choice. I don't honestly think market is looking this. I think he's just doing .

what he wants and really court a song or tea bate IT.

Look, I also to see in the IT is a very good song, but I think if there's some sensitive you if you really if you want to analyze IT deeply, I think they do a good job of mark saying not the most exposition part of the song, so it's all they would see pain, say, the really explicit stuff.

Yeah, his children are onna, listen to this one .

day he says some of the explicit stuff. They do a really good job of .

not screen shot.

believe. Yes, come on. I don't want our podcast to be and it's interesting what their pictures of the lyrics and much again, all in this period of a lot of fun. But if we're talking about this, like the internet is very excited about this.

It's awesome. It's a classic internet move.

The near times which hate smart zen er burn is just like singing his places as an artist. And so internet, that's interesting to me. Yeah.

if Marks not graded internet culture, then we ve got a problem. 那个 i was going .

to say he is nAiling this moment。 He really is that who knows where IT will go next okay, friends, I think we covered a lot this week actually think we now we got in our substance. We we gave the people a taste of of all the things happening and um I think we should call IT.

So with that, a huge thank you to our listeners. I'll have you guys know we've got some cool gas lined up for the end of the year. We've got is .

looking for her cookies .

for the end for this episode. We have an edit in the single mark single as the ultro. And then I just want to I I really, really want to yet like I take down request from mark.

can we get mark to come due an acoustic version of this on the pod?

Can we get mark to sing the more or less jingle for the pod, just .

like what you get for word?

No, it's not. Isn't the game now is a musician?

I just really does what they want to like. Get to take down request from mark, our word for using the song.

Daniel.

like I.

Good idea.

editors put that end, but until next two week, folks enjoy looking at your bitcoin stock charts. I hope they give you everything you want and need. I'll see you next week on more or less. goodbye. yes.

If you enjoy the show, please leave us a virtual high five by reading IT and reviewing IT on apple podcast, spotify, youtube or wherever you get your podcast. Find more information about each episode in the show notes, and follow us on social media by searching for at more or less at dave morin at lesson at j lesson. And as for me, i'm at bread. See you guys next time.