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cover of episode The Rise of Prediction Markets

The Rise of Prediction Markets

2025/4/26
logo of podcast Motley Fool Money

Motley Fool Money

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People
J
Jen Wieczner
M
Mary Long
主持金融播客,讨论伯克希尔哈撒韦、TGI Fridays 和 Uber 等公司的最新动态。
R
Ricky Mulvey
作为《Motley Fool》播客主持人,Ricky Mulvey 提供对各大公司财务表现和未来发展的深入分析。
T
Tarek Mansour
Topics
Ricky Mulvey: 我认为预测市场是预测未来的最佳方式,因为它具有‘真金白银’的特性,人们在金钱利益相关时不会说谎。 Tarek Mansour: Kalshi与传统博彩公司不同,我们专注于对经济和社会有重大影响的事件,这更有利于市场流动性和盈利。我们的市场操纵防范措施与传统金融市场类似,包括KYC、交易监控和调查机制。我们致力于通过透明的市场机制来预测未来,而非依赖单一信息来源。2024年美国总统大选的结果证明了预测市场的准确性。与Robinhood等经纪商的合作,旨在将Kalshi的预测市场产品整合到更多经纪商平台,从而扩展用户群体。 Jen Wieczner: Polymarket被视为一种替代性信息来源,旨在利用‘众人智慧’提供更准确的预测。Polymarket在一些重大事件预测上表现良好,但缺乏全面的准确率统计数据。Polymarket的用户群体中既有普通用户,也有来自华尔街的专业交易员和对冲基金经理。Polymarket创始人Shane Copland并不认为机构资金的参与会破坏其‘众人智慧’机制。Polymarket使用加密货币是因为其基于区块链的技术架构和匿名性能够确保交易的客观性和用户隐私。 Mary Long: 我对Polymarket的预测准确率持怀疑态度,缺乏公开的统计数据支持。Polymarket目前尚未盈利,其未来的商业模式尚不明确。Polymarket在美国等多个国家/地区是非法运营的,因为它未获得必要的监管许可。

Deep Dive

Shownotes Transcript

This past presidential election was the first where Americans could legally bet on the outcome. That event proved prediction markets to be a source of truth.

This episode offers two looks at prediction markets. In the first half of the show, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour joins Ricky Mulvey to discuss:

  • What he learned about Kalshi from this past election.

  • The difference between an events contract and gambling.

  • How prediction markets could disrupt sports betting.

Then, New York Magazine Features writer, Jen Wieczner, joins Mary Long to discuss her reporting on the billion-dollar betting platform Polymarket, and its legal challenges in the United States.

Read Wieczner’s piece on Polymarket here: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/is-polymarket-legal-politics-betting-shayne-coplan.html)

Company discussed: HOOD

Hosts: Mary Long, Ricky Mulvey

Guests: Tarek Mansour, Jen Wieczner

Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Dan Boyd

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