Equity Strategists Full of Bull For 2025
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One P M on the west coast of floria.

the east .

coast of the united states, for a special addition market called danaan guy adami coming to live from the C M A G F L C event.

Then what is that in for global financial leadership conference? I don't know. You and I are here.

They needed, I don't know. I mean, they wanted to stand here. We're friends with Terry.

We know we need and colleague, yeah, it's exciting. We're here. This is our fourth year.

I think that is really great. Way Better away. Great event you. I've been doing this for a while. This one is special.

I the first one in a couple years where they brought all these amazing like financial services folks, whether they will be regulator, the trader types and all that sort of. And I think you're pretty gigged up. There's a couple keynote speakers other than you. We have we have the vence von, which George o, i'm interested here what George bush to say, George and the president, absolutely. And then i'm introit a little microbe to be here.

you to be the owner of the and then .

they have a golf pro and that dehy moses that can be representing us for they raise a ton of money for centum. So we're going to be participating that as donors, dad is could be participating as .

a golfer is a suck. He's going to get the if i'm going to get, I can be good but there is a so friday, let's go to run first like we go to the run strategists bulled up on twenty twenty five that's in the form of brian belsky, Morgan Stanley golbin sexy discuss time to buy gold. Yes, we talk about that last week in videos, the moment of truth they report this week. And when this day, I believe an audience, Q, N, A, because we do that.

yes, we do right. See, you said this friday afternoon to me when the market, like little, didn't have much of an uptick, I think all day long LED by an as back to the downside, IT was made worse by just that guidance that uh at gave and lets us be clear and that is an equipment provider. They sell to the folks that make the chips, right? So that would be an invidia, an intel empty, that sort of thing.

So in the last month, we've had really bad forward guides from S M L. Really bad forward guides from a, at the fact that a mat guy was taken down nine percent on friday, IT tells you that investors are not waiting around for this trade to get a second. Like what is this trade? Is the generate A I sort of trade? We put this chart up there last week with aim hat, and we basically, I think AManda did IT.

We made a head shoulders there. That was, that was the neck line, a break below there. You know, that support was really important.

And now its resistance now. So pass support becomes resistant. So that's the a at chart. And real quick. Let's go off script a little bit. That's at a micro chart because the last time micro reported you think the stock closed that day around ninety two hours, IT traded up about one eighteen to one twenty.

We talked about IT on this show on fast money on a number of different shows that we sort of understood to a certain extent the rally. But IT was propping and be short lived and it's round trip the entire thing. So I look at some of these names, x and video, and say, you know what this tech trade really isn't doing as well as people think.

yeah, go back and look. And maybe among can blow IT up, maybe make IT three months there. So look, you see one hundred and fifty day moving hours.

That was resistance, right? And then look at that move, that gap. You and I actually didn't understand the gap. We were watching IT on fast money that night as the quarter came out, and that's a thing and we both thought you might fill in that gap.

What did do that? I went back that chAllenge, that opening high from that, that gap you sold off again. Now we're below that sort of support level and that kind of has a few guy that I could .

go back to party. This is one if if you go a longer term chart, you'll see IT looks like at this big move off the bottom. But this talk is no where there you go. So you see where that poor high. So again, you're going to say your Cherry picking guy a little bit?

Not really. No, what we're trying to put .

little mode add to this mother quick a com short. This is one that I got dead wrong because when they reported, I want to say, early last week or the week prior doesn't matter. I thought there was a real good chance to stop given the report, given the valuation we trade back to those prior highs about two hundred that we saw late spring, early summer. IT looked that way for about, I know twenty four hours, gave the entire I was above.

yes, I got above that kind of one eighty or so level put make this a one year you know I kind of don't mind this here for a whole hostel reasons meeting like i'm kind of inclined to buy IT rather than sell IT. Now this doesn't look that much different than the amid, but know what the things that keep seeing on whether it's you like on the n fell last night, they keep advertising for these copilot pcs. okay.

So q snap, dragon ship goes into those. So if you're looking for another way to a generally play general ai, that might be the next leg of IT be as one of the things that we heard from an sml when they finally reported last week, they gave that really bad guidance a month ago was that pcs might be bottom ing. And the next leg of the PC trade might be copilot pcs.

What does that mean? IT means that you're going to a have Better processing to do generate I task on A P, C, that could cause an upgrade cycle. So to me, that's probably one of the reasons why cocom remains range bound and has not broken down.

That's fair. So sick. A look, we talked about the strategy. So let's took at this great slide that a man who created are the gentlemen on one side staring straight the camera. That's brian bell scup.

By the way, we had brian on the podcast couple weeks ago, I believe, and brian has been bushed and he's been right. We had prior had him on our podcast I think in the I think was in march and he thought about line what he thought happened in the year and it's come to formation. He just put out his Price target.

The other good looking gentlemen, of course, that of mike Wilson. So analysts, I don't want to say they are tripping over themselves. That sounds are, but you started in to see some projections for next year in certain surprised levels for the s yeah.

listen. And I got an email from somebody who's a listener of our shop sure people are talking about IT and saying, you know, mike Wilson, he'd been barrace for a long time. He got a lot more constructive back in may. Listen, that job being a strategy is a hard job.

And one of the things that we've said might comes on our podcast every quarter, the on the day podcast he's very new on, you can take a five page note that he puts out monday and just because he's got a nm p target below where it's trading and say he's just a barrick barish guy, I was talking about rotations. He's bringing up multi asset class and like and I do think that judge opposed to brian bel ski, who also comes on the pot every quarter, you know he's made this point. It's been a good one over the last year.

So he's like, forget about all the mro. He's like so many equity investors get so caught up every data point, whether it's employment or inflation or this one or he's like, listen, this is the course that he believes that we are seeing earning trajectory go and IT till so. So I like, listen, I love both these guys and they can both actually be right on some of the same things if that makes sense. And the .

overarching point is people take the headline and a disregard to your point, the nuance and sort of the my usual that's in these notes and they're doing themselves in the service. But with that said, mean that sort of the society we live and people just want give me the nine second headline and and they will make our decisions based on that the futures through .

lens of the s yeah, baby, one hundred e minutes. Here are the five hundred minutes.

I mean, this has been in place for quite some time. I mean, quite Frankly, I don't like the Price action recently, and I still think there's a chance for this downdraft by the end, the year two, one hundred and fifty moving average. And today, by the way, does nothing to change my view.

I thought friday was a really important day. And again, you saw a hints of what potentially could happen. IT was reminiscently saw on August fifth, and those days are few and far between, but you see how quickly things change.

Yeah and I guess you know you read a couple of things over the weekend in friday's closed was pretty bad, right? And you say they're self you the headline was the trump trade turns into the trump fade. And I think what what's most important about that is probably you the policy stuff here and there is a headwind to this one sector.

It's a tel wind to the other sector IT probably kind of just cancel each other out, if you will. And there is a couple of things going on today and we'll talk or maybe a little bit later about the tesser. You see a headline again, this is the transition.

They don't only even have these teams in place. You see a headline that says, well, the new trump administration is going to be very you know they're going to be not easy on regulation is are close to autonomy and then tested gaps up eight percent IT gives up you know one hundred billion hours in market up. That seems kind of goofy before we know any policy.

In the flip side of that, you see in uber, you know, getting hit really hard. I look at this S. M.

P chart. You can see the train line. You can see the trend channel.

Here we ve got below IT very briefly to the start of this month, we've kind of rally made a new high. And here we are below IT again. You tell me, guy, that break out level in the S.

M. P. futures. Here was what? Fifty, I don't know, just below fifty eight hundred or something like that.

So you know might that be a level where you find a little support at the low from earlier this month? maybe. But like I could see this thing kind of moving its way back toward. Fifty six hundred, for no reason other than to reset, have have a little bit of uncertainty into the new year. And especially we have all these strikes just tripping each over each other, sixty five hundred volatility.

which was obviously sort of elevated the election. I mean, that trade to seemingly off.

So contusion the .

fact of walls come inland, but actually makes IT potentially more likely to have those types of events because the protection isn't in place that's quickly look through the NASA same thing futures, it's going to look similar. But obviously, you have something that happened this week, which is going to drive. But what's they changed the course? What that the form of videos you know, and you can draw that option. I mean, you see this clearly state that prior low back in August, you draw the lines up. See, we're probably about to make that third point of that train line and here sort of place that there you go down, I mean, banging out they control that.

Yeah I mean, that's what's interesting about IT this. You have that low in september, so you have August, september, then you have the low from november, and we kind of pounds off. I mean, to draw that line is is, is pretty fascinating.

As as Carter says, the lines draw themselves. If what else to say that that twenty two hundred level guy, that we got two in your live, and we finally took out one trading day for just one trading day, is good, feel well, and she's playing hurt. Maybe draw a horizontal line from that july high, because this one feels heavy.

Guy IT just feels heavier than the s mp. Futures here. So this is one I think that you if you can't hold right here, you're gonna have this thing at twenty thousand. And then what's the next level?

You tell me what .

is that one fifty there.

We've talked about treasuries for a while. We have to bring them up again. I know that i'm a broken record with this thing, but i've been steadfast.

And now this is probably last couple years that yields are going to be a story I will tell you flat out. I didn't think ten new yells win to go below four percent. They obviously get down almost three, fifty five or so.

But the move hired that we've seen has been extraordinary. And here we are, sort of approaching four and a half percent. Again, optimists will say they're going up for the right reasons.

People like me will say they're going up for the wrong reasons. People that are playing IT don't particularly care. They just know that fields are going higher and at some point, it's going to have an impact that Carter few were here and saying, you know what? We haven't done anything.

We ve got up. We ve got in sideways and rates, another story, and I understand that line of thinking, but I do think the markets going to start to react. You get that point of diminishing marginal return in yields.

I thought I would be around four and hf percent. Here we are. yeah.

I guess the most important thing in our friend of casa at sea breath, who writes for the street pro dot com, has been bringing this up and no one seems to care as rates have gone higher. He's talking about the equity risk premium, basically the yield on the ten year versus the yield on the S M P. Five hundred.

And when that thing goes negative, it's generally not good for future returns. You know, for stocks. And listen, a lot of this comes down to earnings estimates.

And you know like I think that when you think about what these strategies are trying to do, when they kind of calculate where they think the S M P can go over the next twelve months or so, IT really does have to do with water sp earnings estimates. You know how faster they are onna grow, what sort of quality they are. Read this over the weekend that you know a quarter of the gains in the S M.

P five hundred year to date are in video, which is up one hundred and eighty five or so percent on the year. And that's the sort of thing that you Better have another sector or another handful stock pick up the bar because if you think about that expected thirteen percent year over a year, early growth for the S P hundred and twenty twenty five. It's still predominantly made up of mega cap text tax, which are all wrapped up into the same trade.

Now you look at the dollar because obviously, if you look at yields, you must have to look at the dollar. And you see the dollar, which has been strengthening in a pretty significant way. And it's interesting to me, and again, this is not political at all, and we've talked about this.

But I think once again, it's important to point out that I think people confuse any administrations want to have a strong economy with the subsequent IT makes sense that if they want a strong economy, they want a strong dollar at historically been the case first time around two thousand and sixteen to twenty, president trump actually actively talked about his want for a week or dollar. And I think the market is really not paying enough attention. You I believe that he thinks our dollars probably too strong.

IT doesn't make our stuff as attractive overseas. And he's going to start to once again talk about the dollar is too strong, going to want lower rates, which should theoretically make the dog go lower. But it's at old adage, be careful what .

you wish for well and that's exactly IT when we were just talking about expectations for earnings growth and being a heavily loaded towards those top names. Those top names are big multi nations. They probably get over a third, maybe forty percent other sales from outside the us.

So when you have a dollar trading this way, it's really hard to kind of expect that you're going to have the sort of earnings growth that a lot of people expect in a doug cast actually also sends this guy, and I think this is really interesting. Um he's talking about estimates or expectations for um earnings is growth, and he's just saying that they've been actually coming down higher than expected. And when you see that on the out quarter, okay. So this on a sequent al basis, that's not great things to you know extrapolate to the next year or so special. When you have a dollar yields, you have all .

these things going well because has again, as earnings expectation start to come down the market, if the market is going to a it's on multiple expansion, which again, I mean, that might be fine. We had a whole conversation with micro colony vic last week about what his thoughts were in terms of the sp multiple. And that sort of was countered to what brian bell sk y told us a week or so prior about where he thought the multiple would be in how it's not just a math equation.

Yeah, you listen, I mean, this you sceura I know that know and many times this year have been pretty cautious on the market for a lot of the reasons that we just talked about. And he really hasn't materialized. If you look at those peak trough sell offs that we've had at certain times, I guess the August one didn't feel particularly orderly.

The september one. We never made a new law low from that August one. And I think a lot of folks, obviously, we've anticipating, you know, the sort of outcome that we had the election.

But it's funny that we talked about this. What did the market participants want? One of most investors want, they wanted split government, right? IT didn't matter who won the executive branch. They didn't want to to go to be a sweep of of, you know, every party and are one party getting all of them. And so that's one of the reasons why I think maybe that whole idea of the fave. But when you think about the jacking right now for who's going to be treasury secretary and who might follow feed chair part, I guess the fetch chair power thing is later. But I just think this is pretty interesting .

to think it's about gridlock, right? In the market wants gridlock. IT sounds completely counterintuitive.

But in gridlock, things can happen in the market. Obviously, things might not happen in the government. Things happened in the market. One thing that has been happening and you've talked about IT, the move and crude all.

So I saw that up and it's interesting, you know, crude hasn't done all that much and we have holiday craft here and she's to be on a panel tomorrow. I'm actually really excited for that panel as well for all the panel. But SHE obviously has a view on crude le and the underlying different, different products of a crude in the ramifications.

But one would think as cruel dle goes so to some of these big cap in integrated names. But real quick, you throw up exam mobile, understanding that effectively the stock markets at an all time high. But you would think given the move and crude a name like I, so one would not be training particularly well. But here we are once one and change, and it's been hanging in like a champ. So I still move the belief that certain equities in the energy space can do well in this environment and exciting is sort of, I think, showing us that.

that can happen then. Well, I guess the severn is the other one. If you look at the exile and you think about, you know, the two largest components, exxon on severn, where they make up they make up like thirty percent or so.

And several, which was trading very poorly just a few months ago, is now back up at levels yeah a little bit. I mean, I don't know enough about this sector to kind of be able to tell you why these stocks would act so contrary to the commodity. And this is a space that you look at pretty closely.

But you know these things up eight percent of the year. Now this is the chevron. I mean, I don't think these things are breaking in out anytime soon, guy. But like for instance, the fact that they are not falling out of bed. I think it's good going back to that old discussion um about what about forward learnings for the S P five hundred because these .

are also too control of this move is again candidate trump now being president elect trump. I think people are saying in addition be very favour. But the energy, by the irony of course, is that under the bind administration, I mean the energy if you think about IT in terms of some of these energy stocks, they all did pretty well.

But that's neither here nor there. Goal is something that, you know, the move lower made sense. Over the last week or so, we talked about the then bitcoin was getting obviously a lot of investment hours.

Yields going higher historically are not good for gold. But I thought that gold would hold the train line IT didn't. But here we are, and I think you have a trade on the back of this. But gold's performance today speaks to the fact that maybe the wash out is done.

Yeah, that has a lot to do with the dollar. And if you think that the dollar gains are kind of a beating a little bit and we're like to see the back and fill, well, that's what we have. We had a back and fill in gold here and see your point about I would love for you to get to that one hundred and fifty day moving average.

But know, Carter says is that support is not like this exact regular spot on a chart is sometimes you can fall and do IT and go through IT and then kind of find its footing. I think today is rally is definitely sort of interesting to me, because IT feels like I did put in a near term bottom. And so if I wanted to trade this from the long side, i'd looked to buy this around twenty six thirteen.

I'd put a stop down there at twenty five forty that was the recent low here. I just don't want to be belonged thing. If IT goes through that, my initial target would be twenty seven hundred.

That the level that broke out from just a couple months ago or about a months and a half ago, and then IT broke down from that level a couple weeks ago. So twenty seven hundred in my first target and then the prior all time high, twenty one, twenty eight hundred behind next target there. So again, I would want to use a trAiling stop if this thing starts to head towards twenty seven, one hundred, and U.

S. Can look at the charts win. The reasons why we look at charts has released to a comedy like that, that, you know, these are very technical trading. We want to put these stops in at levels where folks are not just pRobing for um they get to them and then they when I say pRobing for them, a lot of these traders, they know where other side of IT, they know the levels here. So again, we want to use stops.

We're training and they know what levels are going to trigger either by older or sell order bystry s or cell stops. And you're write the market probes. It's interesting now this is revision of history, but I think this is just important to point out.

New mt. Mining reported a couple of weeks ago. And by the way, at the time, gold was on a ties and I think new mount was three north of fifty six dollars or there about is throw up a chart.

The move of that earnings is report was shocking to me on the downside, and I think that was a couple thursdays ago on that mistaken. And I said myself, man, that doesn't make sense, given where gold is. And then not only did IT not bounce, but then I said, then went significantly lower on the back of gold.

But what I sort of figured out in retrospect, and again, this is one of those things you sort store way for the next time IT doesn't help us now necessarily is, you know, I think new one mining was telling was the precursor what the gold moves going to be somewhat counter intuitive. Typically, gold, the commodity leads the equity and this time, the equity sort of LED the commodity. So I guess my point is there are huge support here.

New my mining, if you want to throw charge up, we have IT. So that sort of prior that harts on line across. So if you start to see new mind start to baLance that, I think I will I think that's only going to help the gold trade of put on yeah.

I think that whole forty to forty two range where we are trading right now seems like pretty good support if you wanted to buy this, I just put a forty to downside you and listen, does this have the potential gap? Yeah that move from october twenty fourth following .

earnings from basic, I was was a nowhere near the prior IT definitely felt like to me and i'd been saying that all the way that I was going to continue that obviously didn't happen. But know just it's interesting to look you always want to go back and look at things.

What did I miss? And then you try to remember for the next time, if you were to see something like that, you say, okay, i'll remember when this happened a new month, three four years ago, three months ago, whatever IT is. And then you can make .

decisions based on that. See something, say something, guy. I mean, just to be really clear, earlier this year, the stock traded thirty.

okay. And then IT almost took sixty just two weeks ago. Yes, he was a double.

I mean, that's a pretty aggressive fifty nine. The forty one pull back. But but I like the idea of you. You want to be long goal, the idea of maybe taking a shot on this one and stopping IT around forty bux definitely makes some sense to me. Guy with levels .

quick your levels in the trade if you want to put that slide back up and men and make a lot of sense and we'll put this in a show notes um yeah I think if you're looking to make a trade here via futures, these levels giving self to your point, you would have loved for gold to have traded down to the one fifty and bounced IT did but you don't always what you wish for .

then no doubt i'm really quickly you mention that coin before we got to talk about this one. Again, this is definitely a trump trade. If you think about theyve talked about making a bitcoin reserve, no, that would obviously be something very bullish for the bitcoin.

That break out is pretty epic. And you know the fact there's been able to consolidate in around there's ninety thousand level, there's really no resistance above. A lot of folks keeps saying, well, one hundred thousand round number.

The thing that's so interesting to me, guy, about bitcoin is that so many the other sort of use cases for maybe some other cyp toes and like, can all follow, by the way, side. This has been such an outperformer. This is the one that I think has probably eighty percent of the entire market cap of the whole space.

And you know, so for me, who knows where they hold this thing to o know, half of IT is probably just kind of bottle up with whales. If you have governments that are buying this thing, I don't know why. But you know if you have a whole host of folks who would look at this thing as now a aco risk asset, especially at the time where you know gold, who knows some of the core, have kind of broken down with gold. This thing used to be very correlated to the nasdaq. IT seems to be the opposite right now.

I've said a thousand times, you know, I don't necessarily understand that. I think I understand how IT trades, but I also say this because I do believe this is important. Listen a jero pal.

Watch and listen to what he says. I don't think the fed is gonna as double sh as the market wants a less dovish fed. I don't think it's bushed for bitcoin.

Think bitcoin obviously wrong for the reasons you said, but there's a long way to go before where we are now in the us. Government creating a bitcoin reserve. So did I understand the markets front running that? But we have a lot we have a lot of chapters left in that story.

Yeah so a name that we have of chapters left also in video and hit that on the way out guide. Let me just hit a couple quick question here, and I think it's interesting. Here's one in apple.

Let's go this um who had this question here? Um you guys can find this thing right? IT was basically saying that it's up four and a half dollars today. There you go.

Why know? Let just put up the first second. And this seems to be in a really consolidating the two twenty level up to about to forty. You see that August law that IT made there, know, I basically traded below two hundred briefly, guy, you, a round trip, that entire move from the june tem wwdc. You know, this stock to me is unusually strong, especially and considered red.

Some of the reasons why folks we're buying IT over the course of the summer, a huge upgrade cycle in around the iphone that released in late september than an october are going to get apple intelligence. Well, IT doesn't seem that the upgrade cycle is materializing right now and IT doesn't seem people are doing IT if they were to do IT for apple intelligence. I don't know me. And why why does this that kind hang out at two twenty and me maybe people think it's reasonable a valuation relative to what they're going to see in twenty twenty five. I just doesn't make .

a whole of I mean, in today's the question is predicated why is IT up today in the men? Or I mean, I could be as simple as, you know, videos down. I'm going to talk about video a maybe it's just a dull rotation thing.

Add of some of these high, high flying semi names into an apple. Mean, apple historically has been the sort of flight to quality, flight to safety. And I think maybe you're seeing a little of that today. I think that news over the weekend, again, about the chips getting overheating and stuff maybe that well. So put some people we're going to talk about that.

Let's let's at this and lets at this. okay. So over the weekend, there was a headline that the trump administration might be a lot more favorable for a regulation standpoint to autonomists driving, autonomous driving, really order to testers future.

We know that this is one of the things that most of these uber balls and see what I did, their uber balls, they're basically placing a huge emphasis on the companies is ability to get the full sell driving and then ultimately autonomous fleet and alike here. So the stock is obviously just been a rocket ship since the election. We know that elon mosque has been probably one of the biggest supporters of now, you know, future president trump, if you will.

And so those sorts of headlines have gotten this stock really excited. IT opened up eight percent or so today, guides up a little less than six percent right now. But they are not go on effect if they want to pull up uber for second.

We have two questions here, so let's pull the chart and then let's kind of focus on a couple of these questions and you can see them there. This is from Steve z, thoughts on uber is getting slammed today. Christopher landry, also thoughts on uber.

And I think there was another a few I can put them in the screen and we have a few questions about uber. I got to tell IT does make sense and it's interesting. Couple of weeks ago, we do this thing on fast money.

What's you're most important chart? And i've used I, Y, T. and. The three biggest components of the iy t are three use, its uber, its union pacific and its ups.

And I pointed out that uber had this huge run and there was probably getting a little bit ahead of itself. And given its waiting in the I, Y, T, I thought there was a good chance that would come off. That actually came the fruition.

But your point, I think, is well taken. now. We have gone through the hundred and fifty days here. But in terms of a trade, I think the more interesting trade here, in my opinion, should be long uber, rather to be long tesla.

yes. So the idea there is that uber is partnered with google. O and amo is right now is the Operating and sample cisco in L A.

In phoenix and Austin. They're to be rolling out more over the course of the next year or so. And I took a man when, as the same just go, it's a pretty great experience. So again, this would be very competitive to what tesla wants to do.

I take the over no matter what, about the regular ory environment, about when tesla is actually able to kind of have a fleet of autonomous vehicles out there, very complicated stuff with the way that theyve laid out. And if you look at that, move that gap to new all time highs. That happened, I want to say, a months and a half ago that had to do with apple.

After h tesler had this robot taxi event, people were not particularly impressed by what they had to say, and they basically made the decision that uber is in the catbird seat to do that way more is not a public traded company, is a division within alphabet here. So to me, I think this is more interesting. But today's gap just speaks to the fact that investors, traders, whatever they think, now that test is going to be able to do this, tune tomorrow on the market call, because I got a trade in the uber that I think is a really interesting way to play for defining risk. That chart, not great guy, it's do that moving average is a big move on big volume today. But let's see if we can come up with the .

way you will see closer. We had had a bunch of questions about A I lilly. And you know, if you put up an e lilly chart, you'll know that a number of times i've said that sort of the seven sixty level ish is pretty big support.

And we trade IT down there, I think, in August. And then we made a new all time high believer close to we trade to back down and bounced. And now here we are through.

And now it's happening for a number of reasons, the first and most obvious reasons or what's going on with this new administration, people, the markets, entrepreneurs, not particularly favorable to big cap farmer. So it's getting dragged down on the back of that IT makes sense. But also, quite Frankly, they didn't do a particularly good job of explaining the quarter when they reported. And I think the market is now where you got the banner for the debt for you, lily, evaluation be damned. I think now people taking much closer look, yes.

you have this sort of Price decline that you have and not the commentate decline in earnings growth. This stock went from being very, very expensive at those highs to actually looking quite reasonable. And I think I got to almost fifty times earnings.

Is that right here? So i'm looking at twenty, twenty five expectations here. I'm looking for seventy two percent, or at least consensus earnings growth that's from three dollars and eighteen cents this year to twenty two seventy two expected next year.

Revenue growth expected to go from forty five and a million this year to fifty eight and half next, so that's twenty eight percent. So now it's trading about twenty four times next years expected earnings, ten times cells, very expensive for um a farmer company. But again, if those forward estimates don't come down and the other one is novo, notice this one has around trip guy if they want to pull up this the entire move.

And now this one is also obviously a lot cheaper. This one's more interesting to me. So we're also going to look at this from a long side with the trade tomorrow on market calls to tune .

in for that final question. We have a couple questions, but sm, and this is mark mies, and I think asking about IT, this is something we talked about with court or last, I think I was last week, a few recall. So, you know, S, H, is that a pretty critical level here? And I want to emphasize, I thought to sell off what happen a lot, a lot longer ago, a lot sooner than IT starting to happen now.

But here we are. You go back and look and the real levels to take a look at ultimately sort this one sixty five level, which year or so ago with this prior high we made in the december, I believe, of last year and then obviously were off to the race. So sm s that are pretty cute and we're going obviously, you mean this all subject to change, but we're going to know a lot more.

And about three days. yeah. So A A couple weeks ago on november twelve is on a tuesday. We looked at a put spread in december, just thinking that this is one that could actually cover you into the invidia earnings and some of their earnings that we're going to see from like an aim matter.

So so when the stock was two fifty two, we looked to by the december two forty five, two twenty five puts bad across a little less than five box. You see the levels to the downside. Two twenty is very near that september low.

So we kind of have this one where we want IT. Um and so I don't really see any need to kind of make any changes to this, especially into the in video report. But the one thing I would say is that if you get this thing, let's say, down seventy dollars in the next couple of the days, maybe prior to invidia s earnings, you might look to take half off.

But this is heavy to me. IT looks very different than the aztec had been a massive outperformer to the as deck, largely because of NVIDIA and taiwan semi. So again, this really hinges on what invidia has to say once the night.

So for manic can go longer term. My first assembly, actually july of twenty twenty three, where we traded up to one sixty five and failed. Now as you need longer term than that, a man, you go back the prior high was made.

I believe that sort of the winter or so before, so that one sixty three level was, in fact the double top if you draw hours on a line. And by december of twenty twenty three, the sm was cascine lower. Obviously, IT got on its source on the back of the video report, but people say there's no way we're going to trade back down there.

Well, we'll say. But again, we're pretty critical levels in terms of one hundred and fifty days. And that prior resistance, which held up into the winter of twenty twenty three, could in fact be supported sometime early next year.

right? So we going to be doing this every day for the next few days. This is a video into the print and nine percent expected move, you know, the day after. So that would be thursday. And is pretty fascinating that this stock guy is going back and forth between every apple in video.

Which one has the larger market cup? Again, that doesn't really matter for a whole heck of a but this is one of the last stories around tech where expectations, in my opinion, are really high. We talked about apple before the expectations are high because the stock still sits in there and we can't come up with too many reasons.

Everyone knows why in videos, you expectations are high. When you start to hear some of these things like we heard over the weekend, the information is talking about black. Well, that's the kind next chip set after this hopper. And they're saying that, you know, Jenny said this a few weeks ago in the demands and same.

But if you have to push out or you have any problems with this chip, it's overheating in the server stacks and then whatever, and they kind of ever admit to that, I mean, that's going to a put this stock at least on its backheel or so. Do I expect them to do you expect them to know, going to piece out that information little by little, but there's going to come a time where their bookings going forward, maybe some of these customers were having some of these issues, they pull back a little. Maybe some of the use cases are not that well define maybe the return on investment isn't there.

That's gonna happen at some point. Now i've been saying that for a few quarters, but soon later, it's going to be one of those things where it's just a little too little, a little too much. Guy.

we have a luck going on today. We're down here at the cma gf lc conference in a few minutes. We're in interview tary duffy yeah that will drop later this week. We're back tomorrow with market call a jam pact we care in, uh, western florida on the gulf coast .

of florida .

and beauty talk about I can't wait to me. I an yeah vans fan is exciting .

for you, right? Hey, we got another one here. So after we just going to talk all that after we have Terry duffy, i'm going to be recording with gene monster, deep water asset manager.

We're going to do a big preview of the NVIDIA quarter where to talk about some of the regular ory environment, what we think for big capital. I think some of the folks that the guy that has been listed for the fcc chair, he's a hawk on mega. So we're going to talk a little bit about how some of the stuff might shake out for some of the mag seven. So tune into that. That drops tomorrow morning.

We got like going on here at risk versa media, but will be back tomorrow, one o'clock eaten for market call on to the rest day.