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cover of episode Prediction Markets Let You Bet on Just About Anything — But There Are Risks

Prediction Markets Let You Bet on Just About Anything — But There Are Risks

2024/11/20
logo of podcast NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast

NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
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Sam Taube
Topics
Sam Taube详细解释了预测市场的运作方式，包括事件合约的定义、交易机制以及在不同平台（如PredictIt、Polymarket和Kalshi）上的应用。他阐述了事件合约如何允许人们对各种事件（金融、政治、体育等）进行投机，并解释了如何通过买卖合约来获利。他还深入探讨了预测市场与赌博之间的界限，以及美国选举投注的法律灰色地带。他分析了监管机构（如商品期货交易委员会）的立场和相关法律诉讼（例如Kalshi与CFTC的案件）对预测市场合法性的影响。最后，Sam Taube强调了参与预测市场的风险，建议投资者谨慎对待，只投资可承受损失的资金，并将投注视为娱乐而非投资。 Tess Vigeland和Anna Helhoski引导Sam Taube对预测市场进行深入探讨，并就预测市场在最近美国总统大选中的作用以及对未来监管的影响提出了关键问题。她们还讨论了与预测市场相关的新闻，包括通货膨胀数据、新的点击取消订阅规则以及Spirit Airlines的破产申请等。她们引导听众了解预测市场的运作方式，以及参与其中的风险和收益。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter explains what event contracts are and how they function within prediction markets, highlighting the difference between investing and gambling.
  • Event contracts allow speculation on future events with a definitive outcome.
  • Prediction markets like PredictIt and Polymarket facilitate trading of these contracts.
  • The legality of betting on elections in the U.S. is still unresolved.

Shownotes Transcript

Learn how prediction markets work, the legal gray areas in which they operate, and how they could be regulated in the future.

What are prediction markets like PredictIt, Polymarket and Kalshi, and how do they work? Is it legal to bet on elections in the United States? Hosts Tess Vigeland and Anna Helhoski welcome Sam Taube, the writer of the Nerdy Investor email newsletter, to break down how event contracts operate, explore the legal gray areas of election betting, and discuss whether prediction markets are a smart financial move—or just gambling in disguise. Then, Tess and Anna break down this week’s money headlines, including the latest inflation figures and what they mean for interest rates, the CFPB’s plan to enforce new click-to-cancel subscription rules, and Spirit Airlines’ Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing.

In this episode, the Nerds discuss: how prediction markets work, betting on elections, event contracts explained, investing vs gambling, election betting legality, gambling vs investing, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, event contracts legality, prediction market regulation, prediction markets news, event contracts explained simply, and Consumer Price Index.

To send the Nerds your money questions, call or text the Nerd hotline at 901-730-6373 or email [email protected]).

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