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cover of episode Andy Hines, "Imagining After Capitalism" (Triarchy Press, 2025)

Andy Hines, "Imagining After Capitalism" (Triarchy Press, 2025)

2024/12/7
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Andy Hines: 本书探讨了后资本主义时代的未来可能景象,提出了三种引导性图像:环境驱动的循环公共领域、社会和政治驱动的非劳动者天堂以及技术驱动的技术主导型丰裕。这三种图像并非相互排斥,而是代表了未来可能发展的不同路径,未来很可能是这三种图像的某种结合。循环公共领域可能意味着一个去增长的未来,以恢复环境;非劳动者天堂描绘了后工作时代的景象;技术主导型丰裕未来依赖于人工智能、自动化和其他技术来解决经济和社会问题。作者基于35年的专业未来学家经验,运用框架前瞻法,对后资本主义的未来进行了预测,并对可能出现的挑战和应对策略进行了分析。作者认为,资本主义作为一个系统,其固有的结构决定了其行为模式,而这种模式在当前的背景下不再适用,需要进行转变。应对既得利益者的反弹,应该避免妖魔化,而是进行对话和沟通,并承认其过去的作用。作者还探讨了后资本主义社会的政治哲学,认为可能是地方主导、全球协调、高度参与的直接民主模式,但全球协调机制仍不明确。后资本主义社会的转变将是一个渐进的过程,人们将逐渐适应新的生活方式。普遍基本收入的试点项目表明,后工作社会是可行的。人工智能既可以是助力,也可以是破坏因素,关键在于人类如何使用它。气候变化是影响未来发展的重要因素,可能成为推动社会变革的催化剂。太空探索在20到30年内可能不会对后资本主义社会产生重大影响,但如果太空采矿发展迅速,则可能成为加速因素。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did Andy Hines write 'Imagining After Capitalism'?

Andy Hines wrote 'Imagining After Capitalism' to explore positive alternatives to capitalism and provoke discussion about the future. He wanted to use foresight methodologies to create a clear trail of how we might transition from the current system to a post-capitalist one.

What are the three guiding images for a post-capitalist future presented in the book?

The three guiding images are: the environmentally driven Circular Commons, the socially and politically driven Non-Workers’ Paradise, and the technology-driven Tech-Led Abundance.

Why are fear, denial, and false hope significant reactions to capitalism's decline?

These reactions are significant because they reflect a shift from general optimism about the future to apprehension and fear. This shift is partly due to the realization that capitalism, which has served us well for a long time, may be reaching its limits and failing to address current crises.

How does the Circular Commons vision differ from the Non-Workers’ Paradise and Tech-Led Abundance?

The Circular Commons focuses on environmental sustainability and a degrowth economy, organizing resources and social life on a commons basis. The Non-Workers’ Paradise envisions a post-work future with a locally driven, highly participatory, direct democratic approach. Tech-Led Abundance imagines a future where AI and automation solve major economic and social problems.

Why does Andy Hines believe capitalism will not just evolve to address current crises?

Capitalism is a system that produces certain behaviors, and while it has been successful in the past, it is now misaligned with the future context. It cannot produce the results needed to address issues like climate change and inequality, despite ongoing tweaks and adaptations.

What is the role of AI in transitioning to a post-capitalist future?

AI can be both an ally and a disruptor. It can facilitate a tech-led abundance where technology solves major problems, but it can also concentrate power and wealth in the hands of a few. The key is how humans decide to use AI, and making wise decisions is crucial.

What are some existing experiments that could lead to the post-capitalist visions in the book?

Experiments like universal basic income (UBI) trials, which have shown positive results on a small scale, provide some evidence that post-work ideas could work. Other small-scale examples of local, direct, participatory democracy also exist, though they are not widespread.

How important is climate change in the argument for a post-capitalist future?

Climate change is one of the big three drivers of the future, alongside inequality and AI. It is particularly important for the Circular Commons vision, which aims to address climate and resource scarcity concerns. Climate change could also act as a global trigger to accelerate the transition to a post-capitalist system.

What advice does Andy Hines offer to those interested in futurism?

Stay positive, stay hopeful, and believe in the power of futures work. Futurists should focus on becoming more effective at implementing long-term visions and helping people understand and co-create the future.

Chapters
Andy Hines, a futurist with 35 years of experience, introduces three guiding images for a post-capitalist future: the environmentally driven Circular Commons, the socially and politically driven Non-Workers' Paradise, and the technology-driven Tech-Led Abundance. These images, developed using Framework Foresight, offer positive alternatives to the current climate of fear, denial, and false hope surrounding capitalism's decline.
  • Three guiding images for a post-capitalist future: Circular Commons, Non-Workers' Paradise, Tech-Led Abundance
  • Framework Foresight methodology used to develop the images
  • Images based on long-term values shifts and horizon scanning

Shownotes Transcript

Imagining After Capitalism) (Triarchy Press, 2025) is the culmination of a decade-long exploration of what comes next after capitalism. It leverages previous work in developing foresight methodologies, which are featured in two previous books: Teaching about the Future) and Thinking about the Future (2nd edition)), both with Peter Bishop. It also leverages my work in identifying long-term values shifts—which are pivotal to After Capitalism—that are highlighted in ConsumerShift: How Changing Values Are Reshaping the Consumer Landscape).

Arguing that the absence of compelling positive alternatives keeps us stuck in a combination of fear, denial, and false hope, he offers three “guiding images” for the long-term future: an environmentally driven Circular Commons, a socially and politically driven Non-Workers’ Paradise, and a technology-driven Tech-Led Abundance.

Imagining After Capitalism argues “first things first.” Let us first decide where we want to go before building detailed plans for getting there. The three “guiding images” are not the answers, but are intended to provoke discussion about the possibilities.

The book offers an alternative to the prevailing doom and gloom and suggests there are indeed positive alternatives out there and it’s time to get started on crafting a different path to the future!

Andy Hines brings more than three decades of experience as a futurist to the Imagining After Capitalism work. He has explored the future from multiple vantage points. He is currently an Associate Professor and Program Coordinator at the University of Houston Foresight program. He also spent a decade as an organizational futurist, first with Kellogg’s and then Dow Chemical. His consulting futurists roles included Coates & Jarratt, Inc., Social Technologies/Innovaro and currently his own firm Hinesight.

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