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cover of episode Anna Wong: Empty Shelves Are Coming Soon

Anna Wong: Empty Shelves Are Coming Soon

2025/4/25
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Odd Lots

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A
Anna Wong
J
Joe Weisenthal
通过播客和新闻工作,提供深入的经济分析和市场趋势解读。
T
Tracy Alloway
知名金融播客主播和分析师,专注于市场趋势和经济分析。
Topics
Joe Weisenthal: 我密切关注集装箱运输数据,数据显示未来几周订单可能大量取消,中国商品可能很快出现短缺。关税政策导致我们减少对中国的依赖,这种脱钩速度很快,可能不仅仅是通货膨胀问题,还可能导致许多商品货架空空。 Tracy Alloway: 第一季度,人们试图抢在贸易限制措施出台前囤积商品,但这种状况不可能持续太久。现在我们开始看到关税的影响。 Anna Wong: 基于运输订单取消和集装箱预订量暴跌的数据,美国假日季商品货架可能很快就会出现空缺。关税的实施正值美国公司为假日商品进行规划和订货的关键时期,这将扰乱圣诞节和万圣节的库存。基于高频数据,假日季可能出现货架空缺和商品种类减少的情况。关税数据显示,大部分关税已由美国进口商承担,并已部分转嫁到生产者价格指数(PPI),但尚未显著体现在消费者物价指数(CPI)中。中国国内价格竞争激烈,这导致关税对消费者物价指数(CPI)的影响被削弱。利润率下降将导致投资放缓、就业减少和资本支出下降。预计到今年年底失业率将升至4.8%,明年达到峰值5.3%,实际工资将下降。如果关税问题能够明确,企业才能开始重建库存,但这需要至少六个月的规划时间。由于关税的不确定性,企业在决定是否补充库存时,会采取风险中性的策略,这可能导致订单取消。考虑到不确定性和商品上架所需的时间,假日季出现货架空缺和商品种类减少的可能性很高。我们可能会在日常生活中看到越来越多的商品短缺案例,例如空调配件等。下个月我们将获得4月份的进口数据,届时将清楚地看到进口量下降的情况。

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If you look at most of the official hard data right now, there still isn't much evidence of a sharp downturn. Sure, all the surveys are abysmal, but the actual measures of economic activity are ok. But there is already data showing something severe is happening, and that can be seen in the volume of cargo flowing from China to the US. Of course, this is intentional. This is the whole point of tariffs. But the fear is that this is going to be acute and dramatic to consumer companies, and that it will happen very soon. On this episode of the podcast we speak with Anna Wong, Chief US Economist at Bloomberg Economics, who walks us through the real life and macro-economic impact of what we've already seen. She says that the tariffs hit right at the moment that major retailers are planning for their holiday merchandise, and that before too long we'll start seeing fewer goods and fewer varieties of all kinds of things. We also discuss the inflation dynamics, and how tariffs may not show up in terms of higher CPI, but instead through higher layoffs, compressed profit margins, and falling real wages.Read More: The Jaws That Could Devour Your Profit Margins)Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots)

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